European Tribune - Blair Scorecard

Spain 27 (Mig's analysis [citation needed]

The diary News From The Front... Or The Back quotes Brussels insider blogger Quatremer saying

The Iraq war, a bloody stain on his CV, will in no way be an obstacle: "only public opinion is still sensitive to this question, not his electors who are the 27 heads of state and government", the diplomat goes on. "The only one who could stand in the way is Jose-Luis Zapatero", the Spanish PM. But it's hard to see how he could lead a crusade against a socialist former premier when he has just supported the re-election as head of the Commission of a conservative former PM who was just as favourable to the Iraq war, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso...

Well, as I said on a different occasion

Zapatero definitely doesn't want a diva like Blair to overshadow the Spanish EU presidency in the first quarter of 2010. Let's not forget that the "Council President" does not replace the rotating presidency, it just gives the council a visible head and some "continuity". Currently, most of the functions of the new "Council President" are carried out by the Secretary General of the Council who has been Javier Solana for many years, consurrently with him holding the position of High Commissioner for the Common Foreign and Security Policy.

Still [citation needed], though. I thought I could find one but not so far.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

European Tribune - Blair Scorecard

United Kingdom 29 (can't find the story)

EUobserver: Brown backs Blair for EU president job (06.04.2009)

Tony Blair has renewed his campaign to become the first president of Europe and has received backing from UK leader Gordon Brown.

For an ET link, see Return Of Teh Blair by afew on April 7th, 2009

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

European Tribune - Blair Scorecard

Belgium 12

...

Hungary 12

Here's some evidence:

Migeru:

When I wrote the following 18 months ago

So, in my mind it is essential that the President of the Council be an unassuming personality, not chosen for their great oratory, media savvy and their ability and willingness to strut the globe representing the EU. That's what the HRCFSP is about, and that will be a separate job. The Council President has to be someone who has the ability to facilitate coalition building within the council and broker agreements. Blair is not the person for this, he has shown that in spades through ten years of experience on the Council as PM, and for six months while he held the rotating presidency. Taking a cue from redstar's latest diary, I'd say that the Council President should be a former Foreign Minister of a mid-sized country. Also note that the Council will be writing the job description this year, before filling the position, and that the Devil is in the details of how the council will define the job of its President.

I couldn't anticipate that I would be writing the following a bit over a year later:

France's prima donna President has a decidedly negative effect on EU governance at the moment. Not only does he hijack existing initiatives to the greater glory of Sarko only to drop them when the photo-op has been obtained, but he also has fostered a culture where there is a directoire of a few large (and conservative) governments hashing out EU policy with Barroso and then ramming it through the EU Council. Even mid-sized states are not happy.

EurActiv: Big member states 'backing out of EU', warns Hungary FM (27 April 2009 )

Balázs, who is a former EU commissioner, said that large member states were looking to "strengthen" the role of other institutions as alternative decision-making fora.

The foreign minister said Germany had been working "to seize economic institutions and to strengthen the G20" since 2007.

In line with views recently expressed by Belgian Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht (EurActiv 21/04/09), he argued that the aim of such actions was to leave smaller EU member states "behind", with larger members preferring to deal with states that have "similar influence and weight".

and EU increasingly governed by the few, Belgian FM warns (21 April 2009)

With just a year to go until the Belgian EU Presidency, the country's foreign minister denounced the functioning of the Union, which he said is increasingly governed by an "executive board of big countries".

Speaking on Monday (20 April) at the opening of an annual diplomatic conference in Brussels, Karel de Gucht said Belgium would make full use of its presidency in the second half of 2010 to re-establish the EU institutional balance, which he said was in "danger".

"It is absolutely unacceptable that small groups of member states put in danger the normal institutional process," de Gucht said. "Belgium has the duty of trying as quickly as possible to re-establish the institutional balance."

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

You posted

Qualified majority rules ... As from 1 November 2014

The applicable rules in this instance are the vote totals you posted in the diary, plus

Acts shall be adopted if there are at least 255 votes in favour representing a majority of the members where, under the Treaties, they must be adopted on a proposal from the Commission. In other cases decisions shall be adopted if there are at least 255 votes in favour representing at least two thirds of the
members.
A member of the European Council or the Council may request that, where an act is adopted by the European Council or the Council by a qualified majority, a check is made to ensure that the Member States comprising the qualified majority represent at least 62 % of the total population of the Union. If that proves not to be the case, the act shall not be adopted.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

generic:

Austria should be unlikely.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

Germany 29 (Not a proponent of presidentialism a la Blair [citation needed])

No need: Germany is federalist. But you could link to afew's A-B-C, The Seven Dwarfs, And The Giant Bird.

Sweden 10 [citation needed]

See comment by afew.

Poland 27 (a comment somewhere on ET, but I can't find it)

No, Euractiv story in the body of nanne's Mary Robinson and Facebook Politics.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

I expect Malta and Cyprus will do as they are bidden. 7 points for Tony?

Denmark 7 (Fogh is bosom buddy with Blair and the flunky we have now doesn't have an independent thought in his head)

Denmark also stood out from the small countries in 2002-3 when Blair was fighting for the "big" presidency by supporting the idea unflinchingly. See A-B-C, the Seven Dwarfs, and the Giant Bird.

My contacts in the EU commission, who happen to hail from from Hungary, indicate that Blair would be an unpopular choice for that country's current delegation.  Unlikely is my guess.

Folkbladet:

Utrikesminister Carl Bildt ägnar sin energi åt att försöka bli EU:s nye "utrikesminister", men är troligen chanslös mot Frankrikes utrikesminister Bernard Kouchner. Den Höge representanten, som posten kallas på EU:s fikonspråk, blir också vice ordförande för kommissionen och kan bidra till en välbehövlig inre och yttre samordning av EU-ländernas internationella agerande. Men detaljerna är ännu oklara. Oklart är också hur mycket makt den nye permanente ordföranden ska få. Här nämns bland andra Tony Blair, Storbritanniens förre premiärminister.

Blair är inkarnationen av europeisk undfallenhet mot USA, han är genuint impopulär i Tredje världen och hans tricksande med sanningen för att lura in britterna i Irakkriget borde för all framtid diskvalicera honom för ett ledande ämbete i Europa. Varför inte bryta gubbdominansen i EU med Irlands förra president Mary Robinson? Robinson är en engagerad, skicklig och hederlig politiker, som skulle företräda det nya Europa på ett utmärkt sätt.

Det finns inga tecken på att Reinfeldt & Co har något större inflytande på den här processen heller. Det lär inte hindra patriotiska svenska media från att utmåla varje kompromiss som gjorts över ordförandeskapets huvud som en seger för Reinfeldt. Oppositionen har slutit borgfred och tiger när viktiga beslut tas om Europa.

The gist I get is that Bildt wants to become High Representative but is thought to have no chance against Kouchner, which I wouldn't be so sure of. Germany is I think going to get their candidate in either of the posts, and they might back Bildt or De Hoop Scheffer if they don't get Balkenende as prez. Do they say that Robinson is 'out of the market' in new Europe?

in a major interview, was distinctly noncommittal about French support for Blair.

Le Figaro - Politique : «Ce n'est pas mon fils qui est visé, c'est moi»		Le Figaro: Sarkozy Interview
Une fois Lisbonne ratifié, Tony Blair peut-il être un bon candidat à la présidence de l'Union européenne ?		Once Lisbon has been ratified, could Tony Blair be a good candidate for the presidency of the European Union (sic)?
Il est trop tôt pour le dire. Il y aura un débat. Nous sommes en présence de deux thèses : faut-il un président fort et charismatique ou un président qui facilite la recherche du consensus et qui organise le travail ? Personnellement, je crois en une Europe forte politiquement et incarnée. Mais le fait que la Grande-Bretagne ne soit pas dans l'euro reste un problème.		It is too soon to say. There will be a debate. There are two theses: do we need a strong and charismatic president or a president who helps to seek consensus and who organizes the work? Personally, I believe in a politically strong Europe embodied [by someone]. But the fact that Great Britain is not in the euro remains a problem.

With Poland's declaration, it's now 66 votes, 5/27 = 18.5% of countries and 14.8% of the population against. (Blocking minorities are still a long way to go: 121 votes, 10 countries, 38.1% of the population.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

.

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

EU backlash as David Miliband pushes President Boney Blair | Mail Online

A foreign backlash is growing against Tony Blair becoming Europe's first president.

Despite a brazen attempt by David Miliband to drum up support, leading political figures in France, Germany, Austria and Poland warned yesterday that the former prime minister was an unsuitable candidate.

Mr Miliband risked accusations of abusing his position as Foreign Secretary by using an official meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg to garner support for Mr Blair. 

The leading Blairite cabinet minister also continued to take to the airwaves to play up his former leader's credentials.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

Steve Bell on Tony Blair and the EU presidency | From the Guardian | The Guardian  

Lazy link to cartoon

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

.
Finacial policy is in step with Sarkozy and Merkel.

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

Blair's old rival, Jean-Claude Juncker, makes bid for president - Times Online

Franco Frattini, Italy's Foreign Minister, delivered a second setback when he said that the choice of future president should be "unanimous and the result of consensus" among the 27 EU member states. Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, who will not make tomorrow's summit after contracting scarlet fever, had indicated he favoured Mr Blair. "That's true," Mr Frattini added. "But the entry into the fray of Mr Juncker and why not [Dutch Prime Minister Jan-Peter] Balkenende changes the picture."

Another for the No camp, by virtue of having an own candidate:

Vaira Vike-Freiberga is ready to become the preisdent of the EU

RIGA - Latvian ex-president Vaira Vike-Freiberga agreed to become a candidate for a new post of a European Union president.

Today, the Prime-Minister Valdis Dombrovskis had a conversation with the former president, during which he promised to support Vike-Freiberga on a state level.

In Prime-Ministers opinion, Vike-Freiberga has all the necessary knowledge and experience, to hold such a senior position. He believes, that Vike-Freiberga could become a compromise figure, as no one, from the already named, candidates did not receive the support of all the EU countries.

Vike-Freiberga mentioned, that both private individuals, and the representatives of several non-state organizations in some of the EU countries have told her, that she would be perfect for the post.

Earlier the candidature of Vike-Freiberga was highly evaluated by the Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaite.

Unfortunately, like Balkenende, Freiberga is another candidate who is no alternative to Bliar in terms of support for the Iraq War and Atlanticism.

(Currently discussed candidates in order of my preference: Halonen, Juncker, Verhofstadt, Lipponen; then Balkenende, Freiberga, Bliar.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

.

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

Council president should be 'consensus builder' | Policies | EU governance | Council of Ministers | European Voice

The Spanish, Belgian and Hungarian prime ministers set out profile of a Council president with whom they would like to work.

The prime ministers of the three countries that will hold the next rotating presidency of the EU have said that the future president of the European Council should be someone who can build consensus, who respects the EU institutions and who can effectively represent the Union in international fora.

The prime ministers of Spain, Belgium and Hungary, which hold the rotating six-month presidency successively from January 2010 until June 2011, were speaking in Brussels ahead of a two-day summit of EU leaders.

EU lehnt Tony Blair als Präsidenten ab | Sueddeutsche Zeitung | 29.10

Europas Sozialdemokraten lehnen den britischen Ex-Premier Tony Blair an der EU-Spitze ab. Die Präsidentschaft könnte an die Konservativen gehen, vielleicht sogar einen Österreicher - dafür reklamieren die Sozialdemokraten einen anderen Spitzenposten für sich.

Die Chancen des ehemaligen britischen Premiers Tony Blair auf den Posten des Präsidenten des Europäischen Rates tendieren seit Donnerstag gegen null. Beim Treffen der sozialdemokratischen Regierungschefs vor dem Beginn des EU-Gipfels fand der britische Regierungschef Gordon Brown kein Gehör für sein Plädoyer zugunsten seines Vorgängers.

Social Democratic parties don't want him. The "President" could be a conservative, in which case the Social Democratics want another top position. Basically Blair doesn't have a chance.

Later, the article claims that Merkel isn't particularly thrilled at the idea of Blair. As possibilities, they mention Schüssel . Juncker, and Balkenende.

Only third of voters want Tony Blair to be EU president - Telegraph

At the Brussels summit last night, there were growing signs of opposition to a "President Blair", as a group of smaller EU member

states launched a co-ordinated "attack of the dwarves" in a bid to block him.

The group of countries, which includes Ireland, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and Sweden, used a dinner discussion over "rules of procedure" last night to try to define the presidency as a low-key chairmanship instead of the high-profile figurehead post Mr Blair covets.

Ireland abandoned its previous support for Mr Blair after John Bruton, a former Irish prime minister, put himself forward for the job.

A senior Irish minister told The Daily Telegraph: "We will not be supporting the idea of a Blair-type president of Europe."

Rejecting personal lobbying from Mr Brown, European Socialist leaders also signalled opposition by announcing that they want a centre-right candidate to take the presidency while a left-winger gets the new job of EU high representative for foreign affairs.

Not just Ireland pulling out, but note Denmark in with the dwarfs.

FT.com / UK - Blair has not given up on EU presidency

Tony Blair yesterday refused to throw in the towel as a potential European Union president, in spite of evidence that Europe will choose its new head from a cast-list of relatively unknown figures on the world stage.

The two-day EU summit in Brussels ended with Mr Blair's candidacy looking doomed. However, he was said by aides to be "relaxed" and British officials still hope he can win through when Europe has a closer look at the options.

A decision on who should take Europe's top jobs has been deferred until another summit - probably on November 10 or 12.