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Profile: Paavo Lipponen

by Sven Triloqvist Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 04:02:58 AM EST

A possible candidate for President of the EU Council.

Born 1941. Grew up in a smallish city in the northerly middle of Finland: Kuopio. 1960 studied philosophy and literature at Dartmouth College for one year. A master's degree in international politics from the University of Helsinki in 1971. He was the editor of the student newspaper Ylioppilaslehti 1963-1965 and a freelance reporter for the Finnish Broadcasting Company (YLE) 1965-1967.

Fairly leftist socialist, and accused of being a Stasi agent from 1969.

Front-paged by afew


Wikipedia:

Lipponen first came into the political limelight when he was secretary to the then Prime Minister Mauno Koivisto from 1979 to 1982. Frequently having to substitute for the busy PM, Lipponen was soon dubbed vara-Manu ("deputy Manu" -- Manu being short for Mauno).
Lipponen was a Member of the Parliament of Finland from 1983-1987 and also from 1991 until he retired in 2007. In 1993 SDP chairman Ulf Sundqvist was suspected and later convicted of a large financial fraud. Lipponen was elected the new chairman in 1993, and he led the party to victory in the parliamentary election of 1995. Lipponen formed a cabinet of five parties including both rightist and leftist parties. Lipponen's economic policies were however dominated by the right-wing. The main task of the cabinet was to decrease the number of unemployed. Lipponen was one of the EU's visionaries and tight fiscal policies allowed participation in the European Monetary Union, which resulted in the introduction of the Euro in 1999. Foreign trade increased above the European average 1995-1999. Laws for a new constitution were passed and it took effect on March 1, 2000.
Lipponen headed the SDP campaign in 1999, which resulted in losses, but the SDP remained the largest party in the parliament. The coalition formed in 1995 was renewed. During the second Lipponen cabinet, Lipponen headed Finland's six months in the EU presidency and led pro-integration and pro-expansion policies. Lipponen introduced the concept of a European constitution during a speech in Bruges in 2000.

In the national election campaign of 2003, Lipponen was defeated partly by the disturbing run up to the Iraq War that paralleled the campaigns of all parties. There was a majority public sentiment against the Iraq War, and a reliance on the UN to prevent it. Hans Blix was well known to the Finns, and trusted.

During the Iraq disarmament crisis before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Blix was called back from retirement by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to lead United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission in charge of monitoring Iraq. Kofi Annan originally recommended Rolf Ekéus, who worked with UNSCOM in the past, but both Russia and France vetoed his appointment. Newt Gingrich stated that approving Blix as chief UN weapons inspector was one of the biggest mistakes the United States ever made.

Lipponen's main opponent in the election, was Center Party chairman, Anneli Jäätteenmäki.

Anneli Jäätteenmäki resigned on June 18, 2003, under pressure resulting from the accusation that she had lied to Parliament and the public over how she had acquired confidential Foreign Ministry documents which she used for political purposes during the election campaign. The documents contained diplomatic information from a meeting between United States President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen about Finland's position regarding the Iraq war. Jäätteenmäki used the information to suggest that her rival, the Social Democrat leader Paavo Lipponen, had secretly offered Finnish support for the U.S.-led coalition, a substantial breach against the official policy of neutrality in Finland's foreign politics, and thus associated Finland with what many Finns considered an illegal war of aggression.

Jäätteenmäki broke the traditional unity and silence behind Finland's security policies. As the elections turned out to be close, the defeated Social Democrats found reasons to suspect that her non-traditional campaign was decisive for the outcome, which soured the relationship between the two major coalition partners.

I believe that Lipponen was continuing the powerful traditional Paasikivi-Kekkonen Line of active neutrality. In practice, this was an extension of the strategies developed before and during WWII for the survival of a small independent country as a no-man's-land between Germany and the Soviet Union, and later developed to handle a similar position post-war between the Soviets and Nato.

The Paasikivi-Kekkonen Line is a poker game strategy. Socialize, psyche your opponents, count the points, be modest, bet when you're sure, but suck your opponent in. Above all, don't make a fuss. It's backroom stuff, not grand-standing. More diplomacy than politics.

Whatever Lipponen said to Bush in private, and to the world in public, they were part of a longer term plan to remain actively neutral, and a shorter term plan to give Blix more time and prevent war. With Russia as a neighbour, this would be the obvious stance.

This however is a personal interpretation. We shan't see the papers for 50 years, and even then, I doubt if it there will be a dénouement.

Now some of the bad stuff. Wikiedia again:

On August 15 2008, during the Russian response to the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, Nord Stream, a Russian gas project, announced that it had signed a consulting contract with Lipponen. According to Nord Stream, he advises on the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and permit applications in Finland. He provides independent consultations according to his expertise in Finnish administrative and decision-making procedures within the energy sector.
As a result of the scandal that followed, Lipponen relinquished his office in the parliament building and resigned from all of his duties in Finland except veteran activities.
In an article published in October 2008 Lipponen discussed the Russian response in Georgia and warned Europe of its dependence on Russian gas. Lipponen criticised the way many Finnish and German politicians are opposed to nuclear power and stated that their fundamentalism destroys both energy security and climate policy.
Poland reportedly blocked Lipponen's candidacy as EU foreign policy chief because of Lipponen's ties to Nord Stream.

This sorry episode may show Lipponen returning to his socialist origins. He certainly still has good contacts with Russia. Or it maybe is a man looking to make some money for his old age - I don't think he has profited, before this episode, from government business - certainly not visibly.
Lipponen speaks excellent English, but he's a slow and deliberate speaker with a certain tough charisma, but no sparkling soundbites. WYSIWYG. But he appears to be a good organizer, a dogged negotiator and not afraid to bang heads together when required. If he were to become President of the European Council, he would be fairly invisible, but the work of the so called `Summit meetings' of the EU, of the member heads of state, would be much improved imho.

Lipponen is not a unique candidate for the post - but he is one of them. I hope this profile may contribute to a better analysis of the post and who should fill it when Lisbon is signed.

Display:

The Parliamentary bouncer himself.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 04:52:28 PM EST
I believe that Lipponen was continuing the powerful traditional Paasikivi-Kekkonen Line of active neutrality.

In one of the dozen pages I read on this but can't find again, they said that Lipponen's side said that even in this confidential meeting, Lipponen told Bush that there should be no invasion without UN SC authorisation.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 05:26:56 PM EST
It sounds as if he might be a better fit for the High Commissioner job rather than the Presidency - always assuming the Poles moderate their stance.  I think people ned to be able to identify with the person filling the Presidency role, and some involvement with Bush and the pipe line may not sit well with some people.  From a Foreign policy perspective, however, his close links to Russia and the US could be very helpful.

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2009 at 06:03:09 PM EST
Finnish political bureaucracy is pushing Olli Rehn for that post. One school says only push one candidate, the other says the more the merrier, if they are qualified for the jobs.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:34:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nice job! I'm not personally sold on him, but I suppose he would be a mostly acceptable candidate for the job (certainly more so than that other guy...).

The major problem would be his consulting on NordStream. Not because I have any particular problem with his ties to Russia (usually a positive attribute in my book ;-), but I'm not entirely comfortable with his "cashing in".

With regards to that meeting with Bush, I think Sven's interpretation is quite plausible - even if there will always be uncertainty as to what exactly transpired.

As far as languages go, from what I recall he has a decent command of Swedish, but that probably doesn't help much outside of the Nordic countries...

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:57:44 AM EST
He's not my ideal candidate either - but we are being pragmatic. If you want ideal I'd nominate someone you've probably never heard of - Petri Tuomi-Nikula, current D-G of Communications for the Finnish Foreign Ministry ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:38:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first part of Lipponen's memoirs has just been published. According to reports, as a young (25) student journalist in 1966, Lipponen was approached by the Soviet-APN News Agency deputy director in Helsinki to write articles. He chose to write 2 articles: one on disarmament and the other on students and the UN. But he refused a further request to write about the SDP internal organization. He was contacted again, he says, two years later.

If you live in Helsinki and move in political circles, the chances of meeting a Russian (or any other national) political operator are quite high. Helsinki has one of the the largest Russian embassies. Russia is our neighbour. All this is normal.

You can compare it to the availability of drugs in a city. If you are part of the urban crowd, you will be in contact with drugs other than alcohol at some point. You might even try something if you are with friends. And most young people try them at some point. Peer pressure is a large part of it. For the majority, it is a passing fancy soon forgotten, because alcohol is everywhere and it is legal. For some others, it is the discovery of something interesting that continues until they move out of the circles of availability. For a very few, it is the beginning of a learned behaviour disorder and admittance into a secretive culture that will dominate their lives.

Whether Lipponen was a passing fancier, or continued to be in the circle of availability is unknown. But I very much doubt that it was more than youthful indiscretion.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 04:50:00 AM EST
This reminds me of: could you give some details on the claim that Lipponen was a Stasi informer?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 05:06:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This brings another strange actor into the drama - Alpo Rusi. And not only Rusi, also his apparent nemesis, former President Ahtisaari. Rusi claimed that Lipponen was a Stasi agent from 1969, and later claimed Lipponen had a KGB file and handler. The same claims were laid on Rusi.

I quote from director Pekka Lehto's synopsis for his as yet unreleased movie 'Vakooja' (Spy):

In September 2002, the Finnish Security Police (SuPo) leaked suspicions to the media that an adviser to President Ahtisaari on the Sarajevo peace negotiations, had earlier been an agent of East Germany's intelligence service, Stasi. Ahtisaari won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2008.

The Finnish Security Police had monitored the adviser, Professor Alpo Rusi, for a long time. President Ahtisaari knew that SuPo was monitoring his adviser, but never raised the issue with Rusi in private.

SuPo also had its suspicious eyes on a Swedish-born investment banker, Peter Castenfelt. When Russian approval for the Sarajavo peace terms was sought, Castenfelt, a broker in Balkan negotiations and a westerner trusted by Russia, was brought into the frame.

This gets tangled. One of Rusi's most ardent supporters (and contributor to the Lehto movie) is Olli Rehn, currently European Commissioner for Enlargement, proposed as EU High Commissioner , and possible Finnish presidential candidate in 2012.

Castenfelt is the most interesting of the lot. You won't find him in wikipedia. He apparently has the heaviest connections in the East and played a major role in negotiations with Milosevic (for Ahtisaari and the then Russian PM). There is a great deal of murkiness in Finnish and Swedish foreign policy actions. There always has been. The Swedes have their own Paasikivi-Kekkonen line, and my guess is that there is a lot of cooperation in the Black Arts between the two neighbours.

I should really talk to Lehto again. (I helped him get his movie synopsis in shape for foreign funding.) He and his producer are far better informed in this area of Finnish wonderfulness. The movie is scheduled for release in 2010 and will probably lead to another explosion of obfuscation and recrimination. The Great Game continues...

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 06:25:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So Rusi was exposed in 2002, and then he told the media "it wasn't just me"?

And what's the Titinen list mentioned in the Wikipedia article?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 08:56:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My reply 3 hours ago has now disappeared.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 01:35:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is important to note that the political elite of Finland, and all the other elites too - media, corporate, bureaucrat etc hardly number more than 50k and almost all of them work and play in or around Helsinki. Thus everyone has come across everyone else, and reputation is rather important. Even a paradoxical comedian such as myself has probably no more than 2 degrees of Bacon to any one of them, and quite a few are one degree.

Next week, for instance, I'll be watching an ex-cabinet minister play piano jazz with an old drummer friend of mine (ex MP!) at a downtown art gallery. About the only person you are unlikely to come across without an appointment is the President, Tarja Halonen.

And they all take their shoes off if they come to your home, even the spies.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 01:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The first part to this last post seems to have disappeared too.

Seppo Tiitinen is a former head of the Finnish Security Police, SuPo, and currently secretary-general of Parliament. His list, complied in his former job, was allegedly of 20 or so politicos or bureaucrats with possible ties to Stasi or the KGB. Allowing knowledge of the list's existence, but not its contents was probably a good tactical move to keep a few people sweating nervously. Reputation is crucial in these small circles.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 02:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Was that posted just before the site went down?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 02:04:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The first missing post was entered while the site was still functioning. I then disappeared for a while, and when I returned the site was down. When the site returned that post was missing.

The missing first part of the second post is probably just a cut and paste or edit error of my own, flavoured by paranoia.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 02:16:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See also my diary on the subject: Finnish Rosewood

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 03:42:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lehto's movie will be quite provocative, I think. It was made with the full cooperation of Rusi and Rehn.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 04:05:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
<light goes up> I do remember it with the title of your diary. <goes to read it again>

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 05:07:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Appeal Court: 27,000 euros in Damages for Alpo Rusi

The Helsinki Court of Appeal has ordered the state to pay 27,000 euros in damages to former Presidential Advisor Alpo Rusi. The payment is compensation for leaks to the media made by officials of an investigation into allegations of spying against him.

The state has also been ordered to pay 10,000 euros in legal costs. Allegations that Rusi spied for the former East German secret police, the Stasi, during the period from 1969 to 1976 did not lead to prosecution. However, the investigations leaked to the media in 2002.



You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Oct 22nd, 2009 at 06:52:12 AM EST


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