by Frank Schnittger
Sun Feb 15th, 2009 at 07:43:50 PM EST
Cross posted from the European Journalism Centre Think about it website
(Shameless self-promotion - please rate this post on the Think about it website above if you have the time - its only one click away, and two clicks later you could be back on your beloved European Tribune!)
As I suspected, the Irish Times held over the Lisbon portion of their opinion poll last week for publication today (Monday). That way they get a separate day's headlines to pay for their survey. Also not unexpectedly, there has been a decisive turn in favour of Lisbon in the current economic circumstances.
51% of voters would now vote Yes on Lisbon Treaty - The Irish Times - Sun, Feb 15, 2009
Support is growing for the Lisbon Treaty with a further swing to the Yes camp in recent months as the State's economic situation deteriorated, according to the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.
The poll shows that 51 per cent would now vote Yes, an increase of eight points since the last Irish Times poll in November, with 33 per cent saying they would vote No, a drop of six points.
There are still 16 per cent in the "Don't Know" category (down 2 points). When undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side has 60.7 per cent, with 39.3 per cent in the No camp. That compares to the referendum result last June of 53.4 per cent No and 46.6 per cent Yes.
It appears that the concessions offered to Ireland by the European Council have had some impact on public opinion:
51% of voters would now vote Yes on Lisbon Treaty - The Irish Times - Sun, Feb 15, 2009
In the poll, people were asked how they would vote in the light of the commitment to allow Ireland to retain an European Union commissioner along with legal guarantees on other Irish concerns about neutrality, abortion and taxation.
Voters were also asked if, in the light of the current economic crisis, they thought it was better to be part of the European Union. Some 80 per cent thought it was better to be part of the EU, while 13 per cent thought it was not and 7 per cent had no opinion.
What remains beyond doubt is that Ireland remains one of the most pro-EU member states in the European Union, but why the big change of heart on Lisbon?
To understand this question, we have to examine why the Irish people voted against Lisbon in the first place:
My take on this was published in the Irish Independent on 17th. September 2008:
Send treaty to Supreme Court - Letters, Opinion - Independent.ie
So, what are we to make of the Government research into why people voted 'No' to the Lisbon Treaty?
Firstly, it is clear that 70pc+ of Irish people remain positively disposed towards the EU -- including 63pc of 'No' voters -- which compares favourably to the EU average of 52pc.
Secondly, 46pc of abstainers and 42pc of 'No' voters stated that a lack of understanding of the treaty contributed to their decision. Putting a complex treaty geared towards institutional reform to a popular referendum is a fraught business when many people don't understand how EU institutions operate in the first place.
People are no longer prepared to support proposals they do not fully understand based merely on trust in the powers that be.
Thirdly, what is noticeable by its absence is any sense that the Irish people who abstained or voted 'No' were supporting Europeans who had been denied the opportunity to vote on the treaty -- an argument frequently made by the 'No' side. Libertas arguments that the vote highlights the democratic deficit in the EU are thus not supported.
Fourthly, only 26pc of 'No' voters mentioned issues specific to the treaty as being instrumental in their decision -- and the treaty issues mentioned, such as abortion and conscription, were often not actually relevant.
Clearly there was a strong objection to being asked to vote on a poorly understood and explained document -- an objection which was exacerbated and exploited by the 'No' side, who claimed that all manner of European elite conspiracies lay behind the sometimes abstruse, and almost always unread text of the document.
Perhaps the Government would consider putting the treaty to a constitutional test before the Supreme Court so that we can have a definitive verdict on precisely how it effects our Constitutional rights? We could then vote with absolute clarity as to the consequences.
FRANK SCHNITTGER
Clearly the ongoing controversy over Lisbon has had the effect of clarifying the issues for many voters who either abstained or voted no when the Treaty was first put to a popular Referendum last June.
The European Council concession on each Member State retaining a Commissioner, and a willingness to give legally binding assurances on issues such as Neutrality, Conscription, Abortion and Taxation have also swayed some voters. However the biggest change since last June has been the collapse of the Irish Economy. We no longer have the luxury of voting against the Lisbon Treaty in the hope of achieving some undefined better Treaty in the Future, we need the EU to lead more effectively now.
As I argued in the Irish Independent last November:
Time to put the EU house in order - Letters - Independent.ie
Brian Cowen is on the record as saying that the Lisbon Treaty, if passed, would have helped the EU to deal with the world economic crisis more effectively. Opponents have challenged this assertion, arguing that there is no evidence the Lisbon Treaty would have had much effect either way.
However, would a full-time President of the European Council (as provided for under the Lisbon Treaty) have sat on his hands whilst Sarkozy fiddled?
Then we had the spectre of the EU Commission threatening sanctions against Ireland for breaking the EU Stability and Growth Pact when it was abundantly clear that many EU member states would have to do likewise in order to ameliorate the crisis.
Meanwhile, the EU Parliament was its usual ineffectual self -- it too was to get more powers under the treaty.
Eventually the European Central Bank saw some sense and reduced its interest rates having increased them as recently as August.
Could it have been more out of touch with the reality on the ground?
The reality is that the EU has been moribund since 2005, when two countries out of the 27 members rejected the original Constitutional Treaty -- much like the USA has been a lame duck post-Iraq. But at least the USA, under Obama, now seems to be about to renew itself. Meanwhile, the EU remains paralysed.
Do we believe that Ireland, acting alone, can solve our banking and economic crisis?
It's time we put the Lisbon Treaty behind us, thus creating a full-time president of the EU Council, and giving the European parliament more power.
Then we need to get on with the task of developing a more coordinated and cohesive EU response to the enormous challenges facing us all in the current world recession.
FRANK SCHNITTGER
To put it at its simplest, Ireland now has a far greater crisis on its hands. We need to to be working with our 27 fellow member Governments, rather against them. The time for Utopian arguments by Sinn Fein, Coir, and Libertas is over. It's time we put the Lisbon Treaty behind us and started working more closely with our partners in Europe to make the EU work for effectively to deal with an economic crisis unprecedented in the history of the EU. This latest opinion poll shows that the Irish people are gradually also coming around to this point of view. It's far too early to predict a decisive positive outcome to the Referendum yet - a lot could still happen in the next few months. But there are unmistakable signs that a consensus in favour of the Treaty is now emerging.
