Changes in Bosnia?

by pereulok Fri Mar 13th, 2009 at 03:50:36 AM EST

I heard yesterday that the military operation in Bosnia is going to end, giving way to a civilian mission. There was an informal agreement being made on that at EU level, at some summit, that would be soon ratified. And the news continued, congratulating EU and Spain (it was Spanish TV) for the role played, and also considering the actual role of Bosnia in shaping the EU (and Spanish) concept of humanitarian military mission.

An then I wake up today, I browse some media as usual, and I read the comments of RFE/RL, that focus on other issues, with a less optimistic approach, even in the title:

Don't Envy The Next High Representative In Bosnia

So I thought to open a thread on Bosnia... I have the general knowledge of the issue that a newspaper-reading person in Europe has, but I´m sure people around here have interesting views to share...

Changes in Bosnia? | 38 comments (38 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

New High Representative (none / 1)

The new High Representative in Bosnia is Austrian diplomat Valentin Inzko.

I hope he doesn't end up like Franz Ferdinand.

by vladimir on Fri Mar 13th, 2009 at 04:11:05 AM EST

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

Could someone explain to me why the break-up of Bosnia is verboten? I understand the technical and political problems involved, but aren't they minor compared to letting the situation fester? It seems to me (and I think I've said it here before) that a nice little international conference rearranging borders in the Western Balkans consensually and generally, coupled with a minority rights charter and guarantees, might actually have a small chance of resolving brewing tensions and potential instability. Something like Congress of Berlin 2.0... Things as they stand seem to be good only for assorted crooks feasting off international aid.

This:

A "threat assessment report" by the CIA says starkly that ethnic tensions in Bosnia are "perhaps at the highest level in years" and that Bosnia is the biggest threat to stability in Europe.

...sounds worrying enough though... (and speaking of the CIA and the Balkans, this is quite interesting)

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Mar 13th, 2009 at 05:34:23 AM EST

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (4.00 / 3)

That sounds like a good idea.

The major problem is that it would lead to a long-term solution which in turn would eliminate NATO's ability to pressure - one side or another - to... enter NATO, provide NATO with bases, buy Western weapons, provide men for NATO's adventures in foreign lands, provide advantageous terms of trade to Western firms, ...

The Machiavellian concept is nothing new.

by vladimir on Fri Mar 13th, 2009 at 05:57:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

I forgot another favourite one: extortion of funds for political campaigns... if you pay for my campaign, I'll lobby for your independence, or whatever else it is that you want.

by vladimir on Sat Mar 14th, 2009 at 02:35:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (4.00 / 2)

The reason is, geography.

Look at the map. I don't think anyone wants to bother redrawing that map.

by Upstate NY on Fri Mar 13th, 2009 at 09:46:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The maps are already drawn except for... (none / 1)

Two missing borders:
> between North and South Kosovo
> between the Croat and the Bosnian Muslim territories
In both cases, there's a pretty good idea of where the frontiers should be.

by vladimir on Sat Mar 14th, 2009 at 02:38:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (4.00 / 2)

An the reason is also people. People (nations?) are really mixed in Central Europe, after Centuries of movements... And minority charters might be easy to put into paper, but is the real functioneering of inter-nations relations that matters.

Changing borders must be, from my point of view, just the last resorce, in most cases, as hardly ever solve anuthing and makes intercommunity relations even worse.

In that area, nobody wants to be a minority in other's state, and, more importantly, having a significant minority in their territory "sepiritually"linked with a neighbouring sovereign state.

Most of the sociopolitical achievements of 19th century were possible, partly, because of the State-Nation concept; before, there was a transnational noble class and regional common people, not politically attached to the political system. However, ironies of destiny, the harder problems of the 20th/21st Century States are related also with the Nation State idea, endorsed either by the State, by groups with lobby power or by minorities with a radicalisating tendency.

"If you don't want a man unhappy politically, don't give him two sides to a question to worry him; give him one. Better yet, give him none." (Fahrenheit 451)

by pereulok on Sat Mar 14th, 2009 at 05:15:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

Another answer for Talos is that, when the borders are redrawn, inevitably you'll have irredentist tendencies in the region. Slovenia with Croatia, Hungary and Serbia, Romania and Hungary, Macedonia and Greece, Albania and well, everyone, Turkey and Greece, Macedonia and Bulgaria, Bosnia and everyone, Macedonia and Kosovo.

Some of these countries are fighting over long established borders. Some over borders not yet drawn through agreements, and the irony of course is that, inside the EU, these borders matter much much less than they do outside.

I argue this with people about the Cyprus situation. Beyond a certain threshold, the Cypriot Republic will not negotiate its rights in the north away, no matter what. If Northern Cyprus becomes a recognized state, and then enters the EU, then in many, many ways, the citizens of the south will have MORE RIGHTS in the north than they would have under a UN plan that contained so many EU derogations that took their rights away.

This is why creating borders now, as you wait to enter the EU, seems a bit silly. Administrative borders are best, not national borders, since none of these countries have a standing army, and they all need international money to stay afloat.

by Upstate NY on Sat Mar 14th, 2009 at 11:29:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

But that logic doesn't hold water. Western recognition of ex Yugoslav republics and then Kosovo did exactly that: create a precedent of redrawing international borders without regard of national sovereignty.

by vladimir on Sat Mar 14th, 2009 at 03:07:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

The following EU member states do not recognise Kosovo's independence: Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Spain.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 14th, 2009 at 06:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

All of them countries which face national political tensions, and therefore specially afraid of creating precedents.

"If you don't want a man unhappy politically, don't give him two sides to a question to worry him; give him one. Better yet, give him none." (Fahrenheit 451)

by pereulok on Sun Mar 15th, 2009 at 04:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

Yes, sadly nobody is taking a truly principled position on this.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 15th, 2009 at 04:53:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

Well you already have irredentist tendencies pretty much everywhere that's not ethnically cleansed enough. You don't need to open new wounds. The two borders that vladimir mentioned minus perhaps the one between Albania and Kosovo, or even the one between Republica Srpska and Serbia and some other deals. Greece is not going to demand Northern Epirus. Serbia is not going to demand kraijna back etc. The idea is for countries/ethnicities to be "compensated" for territory lost by some other deal or means.

And somehow I really think that EU expansion is closed for the foreseeable future.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sat Mar 14th, 2009 at 07:37:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

In fact, both the borders between Kosovo-Albania and Republika Srpska-Serbia are alreaady well defined.

by vladimir on Sun Mar 15th, 2009 at 02:14:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Changes in Bosnia? (none / 1)

I suspect there may be no new accessions before 2019.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 15th, 2009 at 04:43:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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