by DoDo
Mon Mar 30th, 2009 at 04:25:10 AM EST
In recent months, governments toppled in Latvia (twice), in the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Though the international media likes to 'credit' one over-arching factor, the global economic crisis, domestic reasons carried the prime in three out of the four cases.
In Hungary last weekend, at the annual party conference of the Socialist Party (MSzP; which runs the minority government), PM Ferenc Gyurcsány declared his resignation as PM.
Rather than a sign of failure, political analysts saw a cunning move: for, this resignation shut up his inner-party detractors and got him a re-election as party chairman by a high margin -- and, with that, put him in the pilot seat to influence the selection of a new PM.
However, that was a week ago. Today, we have a PM candidate, but the regional bosses of the MSzP forced Gyurcsány to resign as party head, too.
Whatever the outcome (some new PM elected by parliament or new elections), it will be nasty. Update [2009-3-30 8:14:29 by DoDo]: After a long hard struggle, MSZP's new shock therapist candidate seems to have secured a majority -- see comments for details.
Gyurcsány is a yuppie who turned from communist youth leader to bankier and then Bliarite politician (following the recipe of spin + third-way-ist reform). He has been weakened continuously over the last two years. In paticular with the departure of the Socialists' liberal coalition partners a year ago.
Over the past few months of economic crisis, a every big media-present initiative Gyurcsány started foundered. There was his "Reform fellowship", a "national summit". There was his big initiative at the European Council for a safety net for new EU members -- a really stupid idea, concocted without considering that even the less worse-off among the supposed co-beneficiaries aren't all that hot on the idea to be associated with a basket case.
This haplessness was an occasion for some rival potentates within the party to grumble about the necessity of a PM change, right before the annual party congress.
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| Gyurcsány speaking at the MSzP congress a week ago. Photo by Szabolcs Barkonyi from Index.hu. |
Gyurcsány's final downfall must have come because he failed even with his apparent original idea for the government re-start.
The idea was to create some kind of 'expert government', which could then gain the votes of two smaller parties: the Socialist's former coalitioners the liberals, and a centre-right party recently converted to reformism. ('Expert governments' are typically a reformists' wet dream: a couple of economists with the image of clean hands not affected by the daily squabbles of discredited party politicians can ram through changes no one elected them for.)
However, all of the big names brought into play declined. (Including The Moustache of Reform.)
Meanwhile, even the (figurehead) President slipped from his role and advocated the main opposition party's wish: snap elections.
In the end, Gyurcsány still got his most trusted lieutenant chosen as PM candidate. But then he was forced to resign.
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The man the MSzP named as PM candidate is Gordon Bajnai. Except for the communist past, his personal history is exactly like Gyurcsány's: a 41-year-old yuppie from the financial sector, who switched into politics (brought in by Gyurcsány) only two years ago. He currently holds the economic ministry -- and profiled himself as a would-be more radical reformist...
However, Bajnai's election as PM in paliament is not at all certain. The latest info is that over half of the opposition liberals won't vote for Bajnai. So, snap elections might also come -- then this man will be back:
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| Ex-PM (1998-2002) Viktor Orbán, eternal leader of the main opposition party, right-populist Fidesz; holding his "state of the country" speech a month ago. (Yes, PR is all for Fidesz, too; in this case more US-inspired.) from Index.hu. |
