Cross posted from the Th!nkAboutit European Elections blog.  As usual any recommendations or ratings here, there, or anywhere welcome!

notes from no w here

For the past couple of weeks I've been pestered by Libertas (ISP-located) online ads in Finnish in widely diverse news commentary sites including (if I recall correctly) Raw Story.

It's not that expensive to advertise online at marginal sites, but Raw Story has a lot of users and I bet the click-thrus cost much more there.

You can't be me, I'm taken

To illustrate my point about Ganley'schances of election, these are the results of the 2004 election.
2004 European Elecion: North-West[2]
Party     Candidate     1st Pref      %     Seat     Count
    Fianna Fáil     *Seán Ó Neachtain     62,085     14.73     1     5
    Independent     Marian Harkin     66,664     15.82     2     5
    Fine Gael     Jim Higgins     56,396     14.09     3     5
    Sinn Féin     Pearse Doherty     65,321     15.50     Not elected     5
    Independent     Dana Rosemary Scallon     56,992     13.52     Excluded     4
    Fianna Fáil     Jim McDaid     52,139    
12.37     Excluded     3
    Fine Gael     Madeleine Taylor-Quinn     41,570     9.86     Excluded     2
    Labour Party     Hughie Baxter     13,948     3.31     Excluded     1
    Independent     Mary Hainsworth     3,308     0.78     Excluded     1
Electorate: 688,804   Valid: 421,423   Spoilt: 14,487   Quota: 105,356   Turnout: 63.29%

(Sorry, can't do tables)

Note that Pearse Doherty (Sinn Fein) did not get elected despite receiving 15.5% of the first preference vote (and slightly more than two of the successful candidates) because Sinn Fein did very badly on lower preference vote transfers from other (lower polling) candidates when they were eliminated from the count.

It is difficult to see where Ganley's lower preference votes would come from even if he did get a 15% first preference vote as other candidates are more likely to transfer to party colleagues or similarly minded candidates.

You need c. 25% of the total votes (first and lower preferences) to be elected in a 3 seat constituency because only 3 candidates can get 25% +1 of the votes and there are always some non-transferable votes (where a voter plumps for only one or two candidates and doesn't continue their preferences 1,2,3,4,5,6... down the list of candidates in order of their choice).

notes from no w here

TH!NK ABOUT IT - european blogging competition 2009 » Blog Archive » Libertas bubble bursts?

1. Al Kennedy says: April 29, 2009 at 17:00

   Firstly the poll included the paragraph:

   "Libertas were also included in today's poll for the European Elections, and given that they have had little coverage as yet, they do
   relatively well to take 2% of the first preference vote, with most support evident in the East and South constituencies. They will however
   need to gain a lot more support to come anywhere close to taking a seat."

   The sample used was also much to small to give an accurate reflection on the political feeling at the moment.

   Naoise Nunn was hired to do a job, he has since left and owing to him working in the PR arena is, unsurprisingly, making hay when the opportunity presents itself.
   But Libertas is more than just one man, it's more than the Lisbon treaty and as the party convention in Rome will reveal it's not going to be stopped by just one man and and article in the Irish times.

   With regard to the funding of Libertas, all documents requested by SIPO were submitted and all outstanding issues were dealt with to the satisfaction of the Standards In Public Office commission. There is no issue, no dark cloud of no questions hanging over Libertas' funding. Libertas was fully compliant with the laws as it always said it was.

2. Frank Schnittger says: April 29, 2009 at 17:50

   Hi Al, Welcome to th!nkaboutit!

   I presume you have a connection with Libertas. Would you like to declare an interest? To answer you point by point:

   1. The fact that Libertas' 2% support is concentrated in the east and south is even worse news for Ganley's candidacy in the North West.

   2. All Irish opinion polls tend to have a sample size of c. 1000 which yields a 3% margin of error Many opinion polls in the US only have a sample size c. 500 with a MOE of 4%. So it is a perfectly respectable opinion poll - although obviously the MOE for sub samples - e.g. for each individual constituency - will have a higher MOE which is presumably why those figures aren't published.

   3. When I had some dealings with Naoise Nunn at Libertas he seemed to be virtually a one man band - the website had very little content and membership figures were unavailable. I appreciate that Libertas has grown since and is no longer reliant on success only in Ireland.

   4. As understand it, Ganley's "loan" of €200,000 to Libertas circumvented the need for greater reported donations and will no longer be possible under electoral reforms currently under consideration. I'm sure you will agree that politics shouldn't become the plaything of rich individuals who can afford to make such loans.

notes from no w here

Libertas got a headline or two in Sweden when they recruited some washed up ex-parlamentarian partyshifter. They still have failed to register or order any ballots in Sweden. Relevant part of the list:

Valsedlar - Val 2009

• Kommunistiska förbundet
• Kristdemokraterna
• Lisabonfördraget är olagligt/ Frihetliga rättvisepartiet (FRP)

It is still technically possible get a seat without ordering ballots, if you can get 100k+ voters to write-in your party-name (correctly spelled) and get enough of them to also write your name as candidate (also correctly spelled). But it is much harder then just ordering ballots...

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

I added the  EUROPEAN ELECTIONS  logo, hope that's OK.

FT.com / UK - Ireland's No vote dissenter spreads horizons

Libertas is particularly optimistic about its prospects in the Czech Republic. It recently recruited two members of the ODS (Civic Democratic) party who voted to bring down the Czech government in the midst of its first EU presidency. Opinion polls beg to differ.

"They don't register at all," said Simon Hix, professor of European politics at the London School of Econ-omics, who predicted that Libertas would not win a single seat in June. It is still early in the campaign, however, and Mr Ganley has already demonstrated the dangers of underestimating him.

Libertas is spicing up an election that has typically suffered from voter apathy. A recent debate between Mr Ganley and Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the Green party MEP and student hero of 1968, filled a Brussels hotel ballroom to overflowing.

Mr Ganley tried to use the encounter to cast himself as the reluctant politician - the businessman thrust into public service to rescue a foundering democracy. He also insisted he was "enthusiastic for the European idea"; he just wanted the EU to work better.

But any hopes for a substantive debate were dashed when Mr Ganley revived allegations of paedophilia based on episodes described in Mr Cohn-Bendit's memoirs, Le grand bazar . Mr CohnBendit has always rejected the claims as ridiculous.

Mr Ganley was forced to defend himself against allegations that Libertas had consorted with racists. There were also questions about his business dealings: he made a fortune in aluminium in the former Soviet Union before moving on to US defence contracting.

Yet perhaps the biggest problem facing Libertas is that, in the midst of a deep economic crisis, voters are more worried about job security than institutional reform in Brussels.

notes from no w here