by Jerome a Paris
Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 08:28:16 AM EST
The French government has posted its energy statistical yearbook (pdf) for 2008 which is an interesting read altogether (stagnation of energy consumption, increase in renewable energy), but I found the graph below most interesting, as it gives a date (or rather, several dates) for the beginning of the current economic crisis:
This shows the number of vehicle-kilometers on French highways (a very precise number, given that almost all highways in France are tollroads) on a monthly basis: left is trucks, right is passenger cars. Car traffic peaked in late 2007, and has been in slow decline ever since. This can probably be linked to the increase in oil prices, with the economic crisis taking its toll after that, but on a relatively small scale (consumption has held up rather well in France, despite the recession). Truck traffic peaked later, in April 2008, but has been in freefall ever since, suggesting a rather brutal slowdown of economic activity taking place even before the September financial crash happened.
At some point, the role of the run up in oil prices in this recession will need to be taken into full account.
Oh, and here's some bonus graphs.
The first one, from the Oil Drum tells the same story with respect to overall US oil consumption, which peaked even earlier, in early 2007:
But the second one, showing Chinese oil imports may suggest a different story:
This one shows a similar collapse over the winter, with a more recent acceleration (ie, a temporary blip), which may, to some extent, explain the most recent increase in oil prices - and suggest that the green shoots are going to be damaged, yet again, by the oil constraint?
