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Predictions and Pre-Election Excitement

by nanne Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 07:08:24 AM EST


Today the first 97 seats in the European Parliament will be divided between the UK (72) and the Netherlands (25). The elections will also prove whether the closest thing the EU had to fivethirtyeight was any good. That is, the Predict09 model. Here are its predictions for the UK and the Netherlands.


UK Independence Party10(-2)
Liberal Democrat Party10(-2)
Green Party6(+4)
Scottish National Party3(+1)
Plaid Cymru1(0)
Democratic Unionist Party1(0)
Sinn Féin1(0)
Ulster Unionist Party1(0)

(note: the total number of UK seats is reduced by 6)


Partij voor de Vrijheid6(+6)
Christen Democratisch Appèl5(-2)
Partij van de Arbeid4(-3)
Democraten 663(+2)
Socialistische Partij2(0)
Volkspartij Voor Vrijheid en Democratie2(-2)
Europa Transparant0(-2)

(note: the total number of Dutch seats is reduced by 2)

On the European level this would mean -3 seats for the EPP-ED (CDA) or -31 if you count the tories and UUP leaving the EPP-ED; -7 seats for the PES (Labour; PvdA); -2 seats for ALDE (LibDem; D66; VVD); +3 seats for the Greens-EFA (Green Party; SNP; Plaid Cymru; GroenLinks; Europa Transparant); -3 seats for IND/DEM (UKIP; CU/SGP), and no change for GUE/NGL (Sinn Féin; SP). On balance this means the left loses 4 seats, a small loss considering the total reduction of 8 seats, but a loss.

The big excitement today will be whether the greens really manage to get as much added seats in the UK and the party of the peroxide-dyed agitator from Limburg (Partij Voor de Vrijheid) will get as much added seats in the Netherlands. Politically I'd expect the PVV to join the tories in their new anti-European party, but IND/DEM is also a possibility.

I note that fivethirtyeight also has some coverage of the European Parliament elecions, but not really in-depth.

Poll averages posted there for the Netherlands are significantly different from the predict09 model -- predicting 4 percentage points less for the PVV of Wilders; 2 percentage points less for the CDA; 5 percentage points more for the VVD, and 2 percentage points more for the SP.

Poll averages for the UK predict pretty much the same for the tories, but 2 percentage points more for Labour; 3 percentage points more for the LibDems, and 2 percentage points more for UKIP.

Wiki has no good poll list that I can find...

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 07:19:41 AM EST
Well just before the current expenses scandal kicked off, one of the major UK betting shops was offering betting with the odds split around Labour getting 20% of the vote. Now the political landscape looks much worse now than then.

so the predictions, if anything look very optimistic (By about 3%) as to what the Labour party will get on the night if the bookies are right how How that will actually translate into seats though is anyones guess.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 07:46:18 AM EST
When can we expect some results?

I find it odd that the election is held earlier in some countries. Will there be voting friday and saturday as well or do all others wait until sunday?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 07:59:04 AM EST
Well if voting was held at the weekend, how would the right sort of people get back from their country estates to vote?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 08:06:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We should have Saturday afternoon voting in Italy - I have to check the details, as I plan to be out of town on Sunday.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 08:53:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Most countries vote on Sunday, but some will also vote on Friday and Saturday, or on multiple days (see the wikipedia entry)

Results are usually in fairly quickly for the Netherlands, e.g. by or shortly after midnight, though those are not yet official. I dunno about the UK, and can't be around tonight, alas.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 10:41:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seeing how it is midnight now, does anyone know the results in the Netherlands tele-voting polls?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 06:09:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dutch EU Parliamentary election results boost for Geert Wilders | Radio Netherlands Worldwide

In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders' far right Freedom Party (PVV) appears to be the biggest winner of the European Union elections.

An early analysis of the results indicates the PVV, which stood for the first time in EU elections, has won four seats. The Christian Democrats, who remained the largest party, lost two of its seven seats, and the Labour Party dropped from seven to four seats between four and seven. The conservative VVD party and D66 both took 3 seats, while Green Left and the Christian Union-SGP coalition won two seats each. 

There were 25 Dutch seats to be contested in the EU elections.  Five years ago, the figure was 27.   Turnout for the elections was 40 percent, a fraction higher than for the last EU elections five years ago.

by Fran on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 06:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At least not as bad as the predicted one.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 06:32:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is very difficult to predict the UK result as the electorate is so volatile at the moment.

I have attended the verification of the votes cast in Slough (just west of Heathrow Airport and West London). This Borough is part of the South-East region, which is electing ten MEPs. The votes are being counted by local authority area this time.

Verification is the process by which the total number of votes cast is counted and compared with the number of ballot papers issued. In most UK elections this process is done as part of the count which produces the result. However the Euro election count will not take place until Sunday, when the polls have closed in all the member states.

For what it may be worth Slough produced 22,503 votes, which was a 28.07% turnout. This is quite a high turnout for a Euro election in the UK, in an area where no other election is taking place on the same day.

Unfortunately there was no opportunity to get any idea of votes cast for the various lists. The long yellow ballot papers were verified face down. Normally it is possible to get some sample counts. However the design of the ballot paper and the large number of parties (14 instead of the 4 or 5 candidates normally on the ballot paper for a House of Commons election) made it impossible to get any idea of how each list did.

by Gary J on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 09:50:33 AM EST

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