Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 07:08:24 AM EST
Today the first 97 seats in the European Parliament will be divided between the UK (72) and the Netherlands (25). The elections will also prove whether the closest thing the EU had to fivethirtyeight was any good. That is, the Predict09 model. Here are its predictions for the UK and the Netherlands.
|UK Independence Party||10||(-2)|
|Liberal Democrat Party||10||(-2)|
|Scottish National Party||3||(+1)|
|Democratic Unionist Party||1||(0)|
|Ulster Unionist Party||1||(0)|
(note: the total number of UK seats is reduced by 6)
|Partij voor de Vrijheid||6||(+6)|
|Christen Democratisch Appèl||5||(-2)|
|Partij van de Arbeid||4||(-3)|
|Volkspartij Voor Vrijheid en Democratie||2||(-2)|
(note: the total number of Dutch seats is reduced by 2)
On the European level this would mean -3 seats for the EPP-ED (CDA) or -31 if you count the tories and UUP leaving the EPP-ED; -7 seats for the PES (Labour; PvdA); -2 seats for ALDE (LibDem; D66; VVD); +3 seats for the Greens-EFA (Green Party; SNP; Plaid Cymru; GroenLinks; Europa Transparant); -3 seats for IND/DEM (UKIP; CU/SGP), and no change for GUE/NGL (Sinn Féin; SP). On balance this means the left loses 4 seats, a small loss considering the total reduction of 8 seats, but a loss.
The big excitement today will be whether the greens really manage to get as much added seats in the UK and the party of the peroxide-dyed agitator from Limburg (Partij Voor de Vrijheid) will get as much added seats in the Netherlands. Politically I'd expect the PVV to join the tories in their new anti-European party, but IND/DEM is also a possibility.