by Frank Schnittger
Tue Jun 9th, 2009 at 01:45:26 PM EST
EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
Cross-posted from the Th!nkaboutit euroblogging campaign.
I'm out of Ireland at the moment and really missing the election buzz. I'm a real junkey for numbers and love the complexities of the Irish single transferable vote proportional representation system. It allows voters to vote for a list of candidates in order of their preference 1,2,3,4,5,6, etc. If the candidate who got your number one is eliminated, your vote isn't lost. It goes to the candidate you gave your number 2 preference to. Many voters deliberately give their initial preferences to candidates they want to encourage but who they know will be eliminated.
Their vote keeps being transferred right down their list of their preferences until it elects someone in the last count - unless all your preferences were for losing candidates. If a candidate gets more than the quota of votes required to win one of the seats in a constituency (25% +1 in a three seat constituency) then the surplus is distributed in order of their next preferences.
The upshot of all this apparent complexity (which is remarkably well understood by the electorate as a whole) is that virtually all votes matter, there are very few constituencies where the outcome is absolutely clear beforehand, and thus every constituency is a marginal or swing constituency, and none can be safely ignored by the party campaigns. The system also throws up a remarkable array of successful independent and minor party candidates which keeps participation relatively high and keeps at bay voter apathy based on the perception that "their all the same" or its always only a choice between "tweedledum and tweedledee" with no one else having a chance.
Finally, it discourages a polarisation of party politics, because (a) if you piss off all the other parties/candidates, you are unlikely to get many lower preferences from their voters, and (b) because no party is likely to get the c. 50% of the vote required for an overall majority, and thus will have to work with at least some of the parties they have vilified to form a coalition government. This last factor is what has done for Sinn Fein and Libertas in this election, despite their impressive first preference vote performances. For an analysis of the results to date, please see below.
Dublin Constituency
RTÉ News: Election 2009
European Election 2009 - DUBLIN
Status: Complete Turnout: 50.8% Total Valid Poll: 406,630
Seats: 3 Quota: 101,658 Electorate: 812,465 |
| | | | Candidate | Party | | %1st Pref | Count 1 | Count 2 | Count 3 | Count 4 | Count 5 | Count 6 | Count 7 | | | | | | BYRNE, Eibhlin | | | 4.7 | 18956 | 19448 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | DE BÚRCA, Déirdre | | | 4.7 | 19086 | 20226 | 21991 | - | - | - | - | | | | | | DE ROSSA, Proinsias* | | | 20.5 | 83471 | 85217 | 87274 | 94306 | 95636 | 103225 | 103225 | | | | | | HIGGINS, Joe | | | 12.4 | 50510 | 52457 | 53038 | 55116 | 55351 | 60165 | 82366 | | | | | | McDONALD, Mary Lou* | | | 11.8 | 47928 | 50097 | 50980 | 52447 | 52529 | 55429 | - | | | | | | McKENNA, Patricia | | | 4.3 | 17521 | 21523 | 22380 | 25213 | 25636 | - | - | | | | | | MITCHELL, Gay* | | | 23.8 | 96715 | 99098 | 100810 | 104413 | 104413 | 104413 | 104413 | | | | | | RYAN, Eoin* | | | 13.6 | 55346 | 56317 | 66205 | 68517 | 69122 | 71530 | 76956 | | | | | | SIMONS, Caroline | | | 3.3 | 13514 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | SWEENEY, Emmanuel | | | 0.9 | 3583 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | |
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The key points to note here is that a right wing (Gay Mitchell - Fine Gael/EPP) and a left wing (Proinsias DE ROSSA, Labour/PES) candidate topped the poll and the third seat was a straight fight between a nationalist (soon to join ALDE) candidate (Eoin Ryan) and two even more left wing/nationalist candidates (Jim Higgins (Socialist) and sitting MEP Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Fein). Dublin now has a huge left wing majority and Joe Higgins eventually won because the was attracting more transfers than Mary Lou McDonald and when she was eliminated, her transfers moved him ahead of Eoin Ryan.
The fact that the main Governing party and dominant force in Irish Politics since its formation in 1926, Fianna Fail, has failed to win a seat in the capital, is a severe blow to the credibility of Party Leader and Prime Minister Brian Cowen. Fianna Fail also lost two bye-elections to the Irish Parliament and many local election seats. Brian Cowen's future now rests in the hands of the Green party who also suffered heavily at the hands of an angry electorate. The comparisons between Brian Cowen's palrlous situation and that of Gordon Brown are well made.
An interesting sub-plot is the almost complete absence of transfers from DE BÚRCA, Déirdre (Greens) to former Green MEP Patricia McKenna reflecting the bitterness of the split between the Greens and their former MEP over the issue of Coalition with Fianna Fail. Caroline Simons of Libertas scored a derisory 3%.
Ireland East Constituency
RTÉ News: Election 2009
European Election 2009 - EAST
Status: Complete Turnout: 56.8% Total Valid Poll: 429,249
Seats: 3 Quota: 107,313 Electorate: 778,502 |
| | | | Candidate | Party | | %1st Pref | Count 1 | Count 2 | Count 3 | Count 4 | Count 5 | Count 6 | Count 7 | | | | | | AYLWARD, Liam* | | | 17.4 | 74666 | 74866 | 75124 | 76295 | 77044 | 99236 | 103605 | | | | | | BYRNE, Thomas | | | 7.2 | 31112 | 31264 | 31480 | 32276 | 33383 | - | - | | | | | | CHILDERS, Nessa | | | 18.3 | 78338 | 78914 | 80145 | 84198 | 86654 | 89355 | 102220 | | | | | | FUNCHION, Kathleen | | | 6.2 | 26567 | 26647 | 27132 | 29305 | 43085 | 44422 | - | | | | | | GARVEY, Paddy | | | 0.7 | 2934 | 2945 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | GREALY, Micheál | | | 0.4 | 1514 | 1523 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | McGUINNESS, Mairead* | | | 25.7 | 110366 | 110366 | 110366 | 110366 | 110366 | 110366 | 110366 | | | | | | O'MALLEY, Raymond | | | 4.3 | 18557 | 18728 | 19396 | - | - | - | - | | | | | | PHELAN, John Paul | | | 14.4 | 61851 | 63590 | 64169 | 67972 | 69608 | 70846 | 76960 | | | | | | SHARKEY, Tomás | | | 4.9 | 20932 | 21034 | 21461 | 23954 | - | - | - | | | | | | TALLON, Jim | | | 0.6 | 2412 | 2425 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | |
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This constituency was much less of a cliff hanger with relatively straightforward wins for Mairead McGuinness (Fine Gael/EPP), Liam Alward (Fianna Fail/ALDE) and Nessa Childers (Labour/PES). This represents a pick-up for Labour from Fine Gael mainly because Nessa Childers (daughter of a former Fianna Fail President, grand-daughter of a hero of the fight for Irish Independence, and former Green party local Councilor) received a lot of transfers from other candidates. She thus won the third seat despite the fact that, in terms of first preferences, Fine Gael had moore than twice the vote of Labour.
Ireland South [Updated]
RTÉ News: Election 2009
European Election 2009 - SOUTH
Status: Complete Turnout: 59.2% Total Valid Poll: 498,127
Seats: 3 Quota: 124,532 Electorate: 861,727 |
| | | | Candidate | Party | | %1st Pref | Count 1 | Count 2 | Count 3 | Count 4 | Count 5 | Count 6 | Count 7 | Count 8 | | | | | | BOYLE, Dan | | | 3.1 | 15499 | 16250 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | BURKE, Colm* | | | 10.8 | 53721 | 54617 | 57190 | 57884 | 58654 | - | - | - | | | | | | CROWLEY, Brian* | | | 23.7 | 118258 | 119625 | 122404 | 132410 | 132410 | 132410 | 132410 | 132410 | | | | | | FERRIS, Toiréasa | | | 13.0 | 64671 | 65861 | 67304 | 68296 | 69295 | 73389 | 74480 | - | | | | | | KELLY, Alan | | | 12.9 | 64152 | 66121 | 69683 | 70309 | 70991 | 78651 | 83921 | 105597 | | | | | | KELLY, Seán | | | 18.6 | 92579 | 94430 | 96153 | 97482 | 98394 | 134712 | 134712 | 134712 | | | | | | O'KEEFFE, Ned | | | 3.3 | 16596 | 16896 | 17124 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | SEXTON, Maurice | | | 0.5 | 2474 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | SINNOTT, Kathy* | | | 11.7 | 58485 | 62057 | 64295 | 65518 | 66920 | 71349 | 75168 | 95134 | | | | | | STAFFORD, Alexander | | | 2.3 | 11692 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | |
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Brian Cowley (Fianna Fail/ALDE) on the first count, and Seán Kelly (Fine Gael/EPP) on the sixth count have been elected and the last seat is a real cliff hanger beween sitting MEP Cathy Sinnott (Independent) and Alan Kelly (Labour). It all depends on how Toiréasa Ferris (Sinn Fein) votes transfer. Alan Kelly is 8,000 votes ahead now, but women candidates tend to transfer preferentially to women candidates and Kathy Sinnott has proven to be a very "transfer friendly" candidate. My money is on Alan Kelly, just, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. UPDATE SOON.
[Update] As expected, Alan Kelly managed to hold on for the the last seat, giving Labour three EP seats for the first time and tripling their representation from the last Parliament.
Ireland North West [Updated}
RTÉ News: Election 2009
European Election 2009 - NORTH WEST
Status: Complete Turnout: 63.4% Total Valid Poll: 495,307
Seats: 3 Quota: 123,827 Electorate: 805,626 |
| | | | Candidate | Party | | %1st Pref | Count 1 | Count 2 | Count 3 | Count 4 | Count 5 | Count 6 | | | | | | GALLAGHER, Pat The Cope | | | 16.7 | 82643 | 84680 | 85842 | 87714 | 112622 | 120930 | | | | | | GANLEY, Declan | | | 13.7 | 67638 | 69925 | 72475 | 73994 | 75705 | 84277 | | | | | | HARKIN, Marian* | | | 17.1 | 84813 | 89938 | 99561 | 103942 | 112210 | 121672 | | | | | | HIGGINS, Jim* | | | 16.2 | 80093 | 82457 | 86597 | 111133 | 113810 | 120185 | | | | | | HIGGINS, John Francis | | | 0.6 | 3030 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | KING, Thomas | | | 0.2 | 1124 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | MacLOCHLAINN, Pádraig | | | 9.2 | 45515 | 47413 | 50225 | 52384 | 54737 | - | | | | | | McCULLAGH, Noel | | | 0.4 | 1940 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | McNAMARA, Michael | | | 2.6 | 12744 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | MOONEY, Paschal | | | 8.7 | 42985 | 44719 | 45687 | 47702 | - | - | | | | | | O'KEEFFE, Susan | | | 5.8 | 28708 | 31176 | - | - | - | - | | | | | | Ó LUAIN, Fiachra | | | 1.3 | 6510 | - | - | - | - | - | | | | | | O'REILLY, Joe | | | 7.6 | 37564 | 38854 | 42350 | - | - | - | | | | | |
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Libertas Leader Declan Ganley requested a recount which has resulted in a delay in the counting process. So far only a first count has been completed however the result is already clear with seats for Pat The Cope GALLAGHER (Fianna Fail/ALDE), Marian HARKIN (Independent) and Jim HIGGINS (Fine Gael/EPP) despite an impressive 14% vote for Declan Ganley. The reason I don't expect him to win a seat is that I don't expect him to get as many lower preference votes as the others. (UPDATE to follow)
[Update] As expected, Declan Ganley failed to attract enough transferred lower preference votes to be elected. But isn't it remarkable how close the top three candidates were to each other on the final count? Had one of these three candidates fallen well off the pace, Ganley might just have snuck in there.
My analysis
Based purely on the raw figures and without having listened to any of the discussions or surrounding analysis, my conclusions would be as follows:
1. There hasn't been a historic left-right re-alignmentin Irish politics as earlier opinion polls suggested. Labour did very well increasing its representation from 1 to 3 seats (equal to Fianna Fail) but remains in third place in terms of the popular vote.
2. Whilst not a crushing blow to Fianna Fail and the Greens, it puts extreme strain on their coalition government and it remains to be seen how long it will survive.
3. Fine Gael becomes the largest political party - when combined with their local government election wins - and senior Governing party in waiting (for the next General Election). This doesn't represent a huge ideological change, but a switch to a more cautious conservatism leery of the excesses of booming building, financial services, "pro-enterprise" policies and dubious public/private ethics of Fianna Fail which have such disastrous consequences for the economy.
We live in interesting times...
[End update]
