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by In Wales Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 10:56:29 AM EST
It's still the week-end in the UK. It's still summer in Paris. It's still Monday!
all we'll look forward to is an indian summer, but it's not the same.
I don't mind too much, cos I hate it when it gets nearer 30 degrees, but a few nice days would have been fun. keep to the Fen Causeway
I used to be amazed to attend the staff party on the saturday night when the temps had dropped from high 20s to mid teens and be absolutely freezing. It always happened.
This year I'll be in Paris but when I get back, summer will be a memory keep to the Fen Causeway
My fear is that this is due to summertime thawing of ice and permafrost in the arctic. Huge amounts of heat are absorbed just transitioning from ice to water and one mechanism for heat transfer is cold air from the arctic moving south along the ground to the lower reaches of the temperate zone, being replaced by warm upper level air from lower lattitudes.
Having weeks in August of temperatures in the 20C-30C, (68F-86F range) is a historical anomaly. More typical is the cartoon that shows the Devil as the night clerk in Hell telling a hapless new arrival: "We are all full-up, so I'm sending you to Arkansas 'till the end of August!"
The temperatures have been more like Los Angeles in June, without the fog from the marine layer, than the usual Arkansas weather. It has been nice, but, if my suspicions are at all correct, it cannot last more than a few decades, until there is no ice or permafrost to melt. Then, with all the methane from the permafrost and CO2 from forest fires added to the atmosphere, it would not just be Arkansas and not just August that would be like Hell. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Madness. Sheer madness. Though quite lovely, in a late October kind of way. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
My concern about the solar minimum is that anthropogenic changes may well overwhelm any such mitigation. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
LEWISTON, Maine -- Americans, you might want to check on their sweaters and shovels - the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a cold winter for many of you. The venerable almanac's 2010 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says numbing cold will predominate in the country's midsection, from the Rocky Mountains in the West to the Appalachians in the East. Managing Editor Sandi Duncan says it's going to be an "ice cold sandwich." "We feel the middle part of the country's really going to be cold - very, very cold, very, very frigid, with a lot of snow," she said. "On the East and West coasts, it's going to be a little milder. Not to say it's going to be a mild short winter, but it'll be milder compared to the middle of the country." The almanac, which has been published since 1818, issues annual forecasts using a formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and the effects of the moon.
LEWISTON, Maine -- Americans, you might want to check on their sweaters and shovels - the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a cold winter for many of you.
The venerable almanac's 2010 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says numbing cold will predominate in the country's midsection, from the Rocky Mountains in the West to the Appalachians in the East.
Managing Editor Sandi Duncan says it's going to be an "ice cold sandwich."
"We feel the middle part of the country's really going to be cold - very, very cold, very, very frigid, with a lot of snow," she said. "On the East and West coasts, it's going to be a little milder. Not to say it's going to be a mild short winter, but it'll be milder compared to the middle of the country."
The almanac, which has been published since 1818, issues annual forecasts using a formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and the effects of the moon.
Funny thing; we haven't taken a real summer vacation in two years due to my changing jobs and then moving near Paris, but this year out younger kids went their own way and my wife and I were by ourselves for the first time in years.
Back in Paris area, it's still sunshine but we are promised a much cooler and wetter end of the week.
Hopefully it'll get better the following WE for the meet-up.
Pleased to report: Bride and groom as pretty and happy as could be. Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.
Frank Delaney ~ Ireland
I'm not sure when they count this exactly, but it looks like he's doing his part to improve the 5-year survival rates!
Tonight: champagne. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Now, tell your father to get you another present and bill me.
Jerome, you only beat me to it by 2h 16 min. Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
Now, brace yourself. You've only a few years left before enduring what's happening to me at the moment: twelve teenagers chatting loudly on my balcony while listening to shitty music... "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
Here in Finland we have the 'Tuusula Test' for boyfriends - which both of the girls willingly accept ;-)
If the boys can't get through an evening of controversial pop philosophy discussion under liquid attack by Klaus Withnail and I, they are rejected. We're very fair. Strangely, all the girl friends come through with flying colours.
The greatest compliment I got was to be told that "it's a great place to chill". This is easy to achieve: 1) Let them sleep as late as they want and then serve a decent breakfast. 2) Answer all questions as honestly as possible, whatever the cost, and 3) Be unpredictable (apart from 1). 4) never say "I told you so". You can't be me, I'm taken
have a wonderful year :) 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
The Maunder minimum that led to the Mini Ice Age in the Middle Ages was probably an indication of our future than some aberration. Indeed wasn't there some weather anomaly in the 4th/5th centuries that led to what we call the "Dark Ages", now I know there's volcanic eruptions and social phenomena around the collapse of the Roman empire that can explain it away, but that does have elements of a mini ice age as well.
So, my question is, if we hadn't had a rise in global temps due to human activity CO2 rises, would we be in schtuck right now ? Is global warming keeping us going ?
I know it's too early to extrapolate the current relative solar inactivity and say we're entering another long term minimum, but it's entirely possible we should have been there already.
I know the absence of data is infuriating, but I think it's a useful question keep to the Fen Causeway
That is all. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Livingston and Penn report what has been known for quite some time now, i.e., that "something is unusual about the current sunspot cycle," and that is, as they describe it, that "the current solar minimum has been unusually long." More specifically, they state that "with more than 670 days without sunspots through June 2009, the number of spotless days has not been equaled since 1933." In addition, they say "the solar wind is reported to be in a uniquely low energy state since space measurements began nearly 40 years ago," citing the work of Fisk and Zhao (2009); and in light of this unique set of observations, they proceed to enlighten us about some important related matters. What was learned First of all, they report that data they analyzed some four years ago (Penn and Livingston, 2006) showed that the magnetic field strengths of sunspots "were decreasing with time, independent of the sunspot cycle," and that "a simple linear extrapolation of those data suggested that sunspots might completely vanish by 2015." And now, with four more years of data in hand, they report that "the predicted cycle-independent dearth in sunspot numbers has proven accurate," with sunspots still on track to totally disappear in four to five years.
Livingston and Penn report what has been known for quite some time now, i.e., that "something is unusual about the current sunspot cycle," and that is, as they describe it, that "the current solar minimum has been unusually long." More specifically, they state that "with more than 670 days without sunspots through June 2009, the number of spotless days has not been equaled since 1933." In addition, they say "the solar wind is reported to be in a uniquely low energy state since space measurements began nearly 40 years ago," citing the work of Fisk and Zhao (2009); and in light of this unique set of observations, they proceed to enlighten us about some important related matters.
What was learned First of all, they report that data they analyzed some four years ago (Penn and Livingston, 2006) showed that the magnetic field strengths of sunspots "were decreasing with time, independent of the sunspot cycle," and that "a simple linear extrapolation of those data suggested that sunspots might completely vanish by 2015." And now, with four more years of data in hand, they report that "the predicted cycle-independent dearth in sunspot numbers has proven accurate," with sunspots still on track to totally disappear in four to five years.
And I know you mentioned it, but it's truly waaaaaay too early to speculate yet on a next Maunder minimum. I expect the press will make similar comparisons with a few days, if there will be set a next record of sun-spotless days (either this Tuesday or Wednesday).
Just like it was way too early for The Independent to announce an El Nino this year...
however I will take your ruddiman and raise you by suggesting that mankind's dependence upon grain is the reason for a large amount of desertification across the globe where marginal lands that should not be ploughed are given over to grain crops because they have low summer rainfall. Then inevitably, the drought comes. and no amount of irrigation is gonna get you out of that hole.
I think you could argue that if there isn't enough rain for trees, you shouldn't plough it. keep to the Fen Causeway
"Well, to start with it's worth noting that the loudest denunciations came from the White House -- an entity with no legal standing whatsoever in the Scottish judicial system. But we expect external interference from the White House: it's what the Imperial Presidency is there for. What bugs me is the complete lack of comprehension of the quality of mercy that seems to have crept over the US political class this century. Even if Al Megrahi is a mass-murderer, the fact remains that he is dying. It is long-standing policy in Scotland to exercise the prerogative of mercy when possible; in general, if an imprisoned criminal is terminally ill, a request for release (for hospice care, basically) is usually granted unless they are believed to be a danger to the public. That's because the justice system isn't solely about punishment. It's about respect for the greater good of society, which is better served by rehabilitation and reconcilliation than by revenge. We do not make ourselves better people by exercising a gruesome revenge on the bodies of our vanquished foes. Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Minister, did exactly the right thing in sending Al Megrahi home to die. [....] American attitudes to crime and punishment are unspeakable; disturbing, mediaeval, and barbaric are some of the adjectives that spring to mind. But above all, the word that most thoroughly applies is merciless. The commission of a crime is taken as an excuse to unleash the demons of the subconscious, however dark, however disproportionate, upon the perpetrator. Once labeled a criminal, an individual's right to fair treatment is utterly expunged, and any violation or degradation, however grotesque, is seen as something that they brought on themselves."
What bugs me is the complete lack of comprehension of the quality of mercy that seems to have crept over the US political class this century.
Even if Al Megrahi is a mass-murderer, the fact remains that he is dying. It is long-standing policy in Scotland to exercise the prerogative of mercy when possible; in general, if an imprisoned criminal is terminally ill, a request for release (for hospice care, basically) is usually granted unless they are believed to be a danger to the public.
That's because the justice system isn't solely about punishment. It's about respect for the greater good of society, which is better served by rehabilitation and reconcilliation than by revenge. We do not make ourselves better people by exercising a gruesome revenge on the bodies of our vanquished foes. Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Minister, did exactly the right thing in sending Al Megrahi home to die. [....] American attitudes to crime and punishment are unspeakable; disturbing, mediaeval, and barbaric are some of the adjectives that spring to mind. But above all, the word that most thoroughly applies is merciless. The commission of a crime is taken as an excuse to unleash the demons of the subconscious, however dark, however disproportionate, upon the perpetrator. Once labeled a criminal, an individual's right to fair treatment is utterly expunged, and any violation or degradation, however grotesque, is seen as something that they brought on themselves."
(h/t : The sideshow) keep to the Fen Causeway
Well, to start with it's worth noting that the loudest denunciations came from the White House -- an entity with no legal standing whatsoever in the Scottish judicial system.
I already found several American right wing blogs that complained that the White House didn't stop Scotland from freeing Al Megrah. For them it is self evident that Scotland will only do what it is allowed to do by the US.
I didn't know he blogged. Although I suppose I shouldn't really be surprised - at all - considering.
Ouch, that must hurt in the Willy-Brandt-Haus... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Super-Europe no more!
Here is my summary:
As a bonus the article claims that the Tories reject expansion of the EU, when in fact it is absolutely clear from the party manifesto from the EU election that they strongly support expanding the EU as far as possible.
keep to the Fen Causeway
(of course the question is what would've happened if a true believer like Davis Davis ever got into power)
however, the business community, not least the City, see the EU as a useful captive market which would make life hard if they were outside.
so we have this constant dance within the party between the nativist idealogues and the business pragmatists. It is my belief that the nativists plan always to discredit the EU; by expansion, by creating yet more logjam in the bureaucracy, all with a view to driving the pragmatists to lose their religion. keep to the Fen Causeway
so we have this constant dance within the party between the nativist idealogues and the business pragmatists.
That is certainly correct. But (as I also argue below) it is my impression that the business pragmatists currently have the upper hand.
I think cameron is a nativist in his heart but who is currently persuaded the pragmatists have a point. I am sure that he could be unpersuaded in the right circumstances. keep to the Fen Causeway
I actually think this is now such an accepted image that people who really do know better still find their thinking influenced by it. keep to the Fen Causeway
Enough tory elites realise this (as do the Economist and FT, who will remind them if needed), but there are some idiot true believers who don't.
I'm increasingly convinced that the tories take their cue from the less rational reaches of the republicans. They may not share the same religious affinities, but their belief in "the purity of the market" could lead them into places where practicality or even sanity count against you. keep to the Fen Causeway
Needless to say that most prescriptions are aimed at making the EU a pure free trade zone. In so far you are right about "undermining the EU".
Ah, but there was already an earlier refugee migration that gave Brittany its name...
:)
Meanwhile the armorica went and named a continent.
france; the gift that keeps giving. keep to the Fen Causeway
The Federal Reserve has made a $14bn profit on loan programmes that have provided hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity to the financial system since the start of the crisis two years ago, according to Fed officials. The internal estimate is based on the difference between the fees and interest on the lending facilities and the interest the Fed would have earned had it invested the funds in three-month Treasury bills. <...> Critics have warned the central bank might lose money on its vast efforts to avoid financial collapse and ease financing conditions for the economy as a whole. But the internal estimates suggest that the Fed might well make a cash profit on the crisis. They show that the fees earned on the loans were high enough to more than cover defaults to date - leaving a sizeable cushion against future losses on these loans and other parts of the Fed portfolio. Some politicians have criticised the Fed for using billions of dollars of public funds to support the market and stricken groups such as AIG and Bear Stearns. The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned from $800bn in 2007 to about $2,000bn. A recent Gallup Poll found the Fed had the worst public approval rating of nine government agencies, even lower than the tax authorities.
The internal estimate is based on the difference between the fees and interest on the lending facilities and the interest the Fed would have earned had it invested the funds in three-month Treasury bills.
<...>
Critics have warned the central bank might lose money on its vast efforts to avoid financial collapse and ease financing conditions for the economy as a whole.
But the internal estimates suggest that the Fed might well make a cash profit on the crisis. They show that the fees earned on the loans were high enough to more than cover defaults to date - leaving a sizeable cushion against future losses on these loans and other parts of the Fed portfolio.
Some politicians have criticised the Fed for using billions of dollars of public funds to support the market and stricken groups such as AIG and Bear Stearns. The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned from $800bn in 2007 to about $2,000bn. A recent Gallup Poll found the Fed had the worst public approval rating of nine government agencies, even lower than the tax authorities.
The biggest spur to deal-making among banks isn't private-equity cash or foreign investors. It is the federal government. To encourage banks to pick through the wreckage of their collapsed competitors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has agreed to assume most of the risk on $80 billion in loans and other assets. The agency expects it will eventually have to cover $14 billion in future losses on deals cut so far. The initiative amounts to a subsidy for dozens of hand-picked banks. Through more than 50 deals known as "loss shares," the FDIC has agreed to absorb losses on the detritus of the financial crisis -- from loans on two log cabins in the woods of northwestern Illinois to hundreds of millions of dollars in busted condominium loans in Florida. The agency's total exposure is about six times the amount remaining in its fund that guarantees consumers' deposits, exposing taxpayers to a big, new risk. ...
To encourage banks to pick through the wreckage of their collapsed competitors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has agreed to assume most of the risk on $80 billion in loans and other assets. The agency expects it will eventually have to cover $14 billion in future losses on deals cut so far. The initiative amounts to a subsidy for dozens of hand-picked banks.
Through more than 50 deals known as "loss shares," the FDIC has agreed to absorb losses on the detritus of the financial crisis -- from loans on two log cabins in the woods of northwestern Illinois to hundreds of millions of dollars in busted condominium loans in Florida. The agency's total exposure is about six times the amount remaining in its fund that guarantees consumers' deposits, exposing taxpayers to a big, new risk. ...
The net result for the Treasury (after receiving the Bank's profits) is essentially a 0.5% temporary overdraft.
Ahhh.....the wonders of Seigniorage "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
...as the new leader of the party.... first he explained the party's real (also means 'royal' in Spanish) proposals to deal with the crisis.... ... the party's work in favor of a "federal, solidary and republican" state, as well as its "effort to reach the arrival of the III Republic".
Supposedly, the meeting lasted an hour.
In the photo, the king looks aged and his new beard over the extra-left-red tie doesn't help, while the lefty has given up that useless, luxury item. Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
I've been checking e-mail three times a day on my phone, which means I've been pretty much isolated from world events, which is interesting.
Have to work for an hour today, which is why I've pulled out the laptop and am actually on-line properly. I'm not obviously missing anything, from looking at the headlines.
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