Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Monday Open Thread

by In Wales Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 10:56:29 AM EST

Go for it!


Display:
that's just because I tried to put a comment on the FP. That'll teach me!


It's still the week-end in the UK.
It's still summer in Paris.
It's still Monday!


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 10:58:51 AM EST
The Met office have more or less promised that whatever hopes we may have had for warm weather this year are now officially over. By the time the foreseen set of lows scheduled to come in from the Atlantic have been and gone, we'll have tipped over the edge twaords autumn.

all we'll look forward to is an indian summer, but it's not the same.

I don't mind too much, cos I hate it when it gets nearer 30 degrees, but a few nice days would have been fun.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 11:49:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely we're due a warm week relatively soon, the moment that all the kids have gone back to school.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:06:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So far next week looks okay, but that's chappel beer festival which always coincides with the end of summer.

I used to be amazed to attend the staff party on the saturday night when the temps had dropped from high 20s to mid teens and be absolutely freezing. It always happened.

This year I'll be in Paris but when I get back, summer will be a memory

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:16:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It has been an unusually cool summer in Arkansas also.  We really only had a couple of weeks with the heat index approaching or exceeding 100F, (37.78C).  This was similar to the previous summer, but that the hot spell came in late June rather than mid July.

My fear is that this is due to summertime thawing of ice and permafrost in the arctic.  Huge amounts of heat are absorbed just transitioning from ice to water and one mechanism for heat transfer is cold air from the arctic moving south along the ground to the lower reaches of the temperate zone, being replaced by warm upper level air from lower lattitudes.  

Having weeks in August of temperatures in the 20C-30C, (68F-86F range) is a historical anomaly.  More typical is the cartoon that shows the Devil as the night clerk in Hell telling a hapless new arrival: "We are all full-up, so I'm sending you to Arkansas 'till the end of August!"

The temperatures have been more like Los Angeles in June, without the fog from the marine layer, than the usual Arkansas weather.  It has been nice, but, if my suspicions are at all correct, it cannot last more than a few decades, until there is no ice or permafrost to melt.  Then, with all the methane from the permafrost and CO2 from forest fires added to the atmosphere, it would not just be Arkansas and not just August that would be like Hell.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:14:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was in the low 40's here last night.  In Euro temps that's like 7 degrees.  

Madness.  Sheer madness.  Though quite lovely, in a late October kind of way.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:19:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
aybe. You should read my "climate stuff" comment.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:19:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just saw it.  I certainly hope we are headed into a solar minimum.  If it last centuries and is deep enough that might save us from our own social incompetence and collective stupidity.  There does seem to be another factor, however, that could be masking the extent of greenhouse gas induced warming--particulate haze, much of it from industrialization in India and China. If that is valid it could pose problems when and if they get their particulate emissions under control.  Clean up the atmosphere and we all bake.

My concern about the solar minimum is that anthropogenic changes may well overwhelm any such mitigation.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Farmers' Almanac Predicts "Numbing Cold" This Winter

LEWISTON, Maine -- Americans, you might want to check on their sweaters and shovels - the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a cold winter for many of you.

The venerable almanac's 2010 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says numbing cold will predominate in the country's midsection, from the Rocky Mountains in the West to the Appalachians in the East.

Managing Editor Sandi Duncan says it's going to be an "ice cold sandwich."

"We feel the middle part of the country's really going to be cold - very, very cold, very, very frigid, with a lot of snow," she said. "On the East and West coasts, it's going to be a little milder. Not to say it's going to be a mild short winter, but it'll be milder compared to the middle of the country."

The almanac, which has been published since 1818, issues annual forecasts using a formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and the effects of the moon.

by Fran on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:33:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This reminds me of that old story: a north American colonist is worried about having enough firewood for the winter. He cuts a big quantity, but he's not sure if it will be enough, so he goes to see an old, wise Indian who lives nearby and asks him: will the winter be particularly cold? The old Indian says "winter very cold". So, the colonist goes back and cuts two times more wood. Then he returns to the old Indian who says: "winter extremely cold!". The guy goes back again and cuts wood until his house is completely surrounded by stored firewood. Then he goes yo see the old Indian who says it will probably the coldest winter ever. "How do you know?" asks the colonist. "Well, when white man stores a lot of firewood, winter very cold"...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:29:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Around here we assume winter will be extremely cold until it proves otherwise.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:50:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The mildness of the winters is one of the attractions of the Southern Ozarks.  As long as we don't have another ice storm or a January-February tornado outbreak I'll be happy.  I have a ton of seasoned hardwood for firewood and have gas for heat in most of the house, plus, I now have an emergency generator so I can run the gas furnace even without electricity from the utility.  Hope to have the generator tied in to a transfer switch so I can have electricity anywhere it is needed, up to 7 kw at a time.  Plus, we seem to have a glut of natural gas just now, with underground storage just about topped off nation wide, so gas should be reasonably priced, unless parties unknown figure out how to see that it isn't.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 05:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I'm back from a week at the seaside in Agde. Weather was gorgeous and I have the suntan to prove it...

Funny thing; we haven't taken a real summer vacation in two years due to my changing jobs and then moving near Paris, but this year out younger kids went their own way and my wife and I were by ourselves for the first time in years.

Back in Paris area, it's still sunshine but we are promised a much cooler and wetter end of the week.

Hopefully it'll get better the following WE for the meet-up.

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 05:05:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lovely day today with 28° and cool nights, but definitely more like fall then summer. Some trees have started changing colors.
by Fran on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:22:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, out here in the far reaches that divide San Berdo and Riverside, there's a little berg called Perris where I spent the weekend with family. 108, plus a hot wind. Luckily it cooled down miraculously on Saturday evening for the outdoor wedding.

Pleased to report: Bride and groom as pretty and happy as could be.

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 08:38:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Today is the 9th birthday of my son and also the 5th anniversary of the diagnosis that changed our lifes.

I'm not sure when they count this exactly, but it looks like he's doing his part to improve the 5-year survival rates!

Tonight: champagne.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 11:00:37 AM EST
Many happy returns of the day.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 11:05:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's for sure.  All the best.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 11:09:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Congratulations! Many happy returns.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 11:09:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Many happy returns, and congrats on pushing those statistics.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 11:37:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wonderful! I wish you all many more such birthdays.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 11:53:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Congratulations!

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 11:55:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Congrats!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:07:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday to B and congratulations, may there be many more 5 year-cycles.
by Fran on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:31:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Congratulations!
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:07:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Many, many more!
by Sassafras on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have a lot to teach us all!  

Now, tell your father to get you another present and bill me.  

Jerome, you only beat me to it by 2h 16 min.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent - and many more. :-)
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:12:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy birthday to your son!

Now, brace yourself. You've only a few years left before enduring what's happening to me at the moment: twelve teenagers chatting loudly on my balcony while listening to shitty music...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You know you love it, really ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:19:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, but I love my daughter enough to accept it...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know, I know.

Here in Finland we have the 'Tuusula Test' for boyfriends - which both of the girls willingly accept ;-)

If the boys can't get through an evening of controversial pop philosophy discussion under liquid attack by Klaus Withnail and I, they are rejected. We're very fair. Strangely, all the girl friends come through with flying colours.

The greatest compliment I got was to be told that "it's a great place to chill". This is easy to achieve: 1) Let them sleep as late as they want and then serve a decent breakfast. 2) Answer all questions as honestly as possible, whatever the cost, and 3) Be unpredictable (apart from 1). 4) never say "I told you so".

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 05:14:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy birthday and all the best for the family.
And may the wind keep blowing in your sails...
by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:49:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
happy b-day, to both of you!

have a wonderful year
:)

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 05:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hyvää syntymäpäivä!

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 05:39:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
;)

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Tue Sep 1st, 2009 at 03:57:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks to all for the wishes. We had good fun yesterday.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 1st, 2009 at 09:18:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I got to thinking that everybody notes that global temperatures have displayed a "hockey stick" uptick since the mid 1800s, a rise that is coincident with rises in atmospheric CO2. What everybody ignores is that, before then, the general trend was down which implies that the sun has been going into a low activity phase for the best part of a 1000 years.

The Maunder minimum that led to the Mini Ice Age in the Middle Ages was probably an indication of our future than some aberration. Indeed wasn't there some weather anomaly in the 4th/5th centuries that led to what we call the "Dark Ages", now I know there's volcanic eruptions and social phenomena around the collapse of the Roman empire that can explain it away, but that does have elements of a mini ice age as well.

So, my question is, if we hadn't had a rise in global temps due to human activity CO2 rises, would we be in schtuck right now ? Is global warming keeping us going ?

I know it's too early to extrapolate the current relative solar inactivity and say we're entering another long term minimum, but it's entirely possible we should have been there already.

I know the absence of data is infuriating, but I think it's a useful question

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:13:25 PM EST
Al Gore is fat.

That is all.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:33:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CO2 Science

Livingston and Penn report what has been known for quite some time now, i.e., that "something is unusual about the current sunspot cycle," and that is, as they describe it, that "the current solar minimum has been unusually long." More specifically, they state that "with more than 670 days without sunspots through June 2009, the number of spotless days has not been equaled since 1933." In addition, they say "the solar wind is reported to be in a uniquely low energy state since space measurements began nearly 40 years ago," citing the work of Fisk and Zhao (2009); and in light of this unique set of observations, they proceed to enlighten us about some important related matters.

What was learned
First of all, they report that data they analyzed some four years ago (Penn and Livingston, 2006) showed that the magnetic field strengths of sunspots "were decreasing with time, independent of the sunspot cycle," and that "a simple linear extrapolation of those data suggested that sunspots might completely vanish by 2015." And now, with four more years of data in hand, they report that "the predicted cycle-independent dearth in sunspot numbers has proven accurate," with sunspots still on track to totally disappear in four to five years.



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:55:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Has anyone scaled the relative contributions of decreased solar output, increased greenhouse warming and increased atmospheric reflectivity due to particulate haze?  Or do the current climate models have sufficient resolution for such effects to be seen above the noise?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:40:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
William Ruddiman already proposed in his book Plows, Plagues and Petroleum that human's switch to extensive agriculture some 8000 years ago has already prevented the earth's swing into a next glacial period. It's also a widely criticized postulation, as it implies that the leverage of humanity's behaviour on the planet is far, far larger than what is commonly thought.

And I know you mentioned it, but it's truly waaaaaay too early to speculate yet on a next Maunder minimum. I expect the press will make similar comparisons with a few days, if there will be set a next record of sun-spotless days (either this Tuesday or Wednesday).

Just like it was way too early for The Independent to announce an El Nino this year...

by Nomad on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 05:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair dos on that.

however I will take your ruddiman and raise you by suggesting that mankind's dependence upon grain is the reason for a large amount of desertification across the globe where marginal lands that should not be ploughed are given over to grain crops because they have low summer rainfall. Then inevitably, the drought comes. and no amount of irrigation is gonna get you out of that hole.

I think you could argue that if there isn't enough rain for trees, you shouldn't plough it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 05:38:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Charlie Stross speaks for Scotland

"Well, to start with it's worth noting that the loudest denunciations came from the White House -- an entity with no legal standing whatsoever in the Scottish judicial system. But we expect external interference from the White House: it's what the Imperial Presidency is there for.

What bugs me is the complete lack of comprehension of the quality of mercy that seems to have crept over the US political class this century.

Even if Al Megrahi is a mass-murderer, the fact remains that he is dying. It is long-standing policy in Scotland to exercise the prerogative of mercy when possible; in general, if an imprisoned criminal is terminally ill, a request for release (for hospice care, basically) is usually granted unless they are believed to be a danger to the public.

That's because the justice system isn't solely about punishment. It's about respect for the greater good of society, which is better served by rehabilitation and reconcilliation than by revenge. We do not make ourselves better people by exercising a gruesome revenge on the bodies of our vanquished foes. Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Minister, did exactly the right thing in sending Al Megrahi home to die.
[....]
American attitudes to crime and punishment are unspeakable; disturbing, mediaeval, and barbaric are some of the adjectives that spring to mind. But above all, the word that most thoroughly applies is merciless. The commission of a crime is taken as an excuse to unleash the demons of the subconscious, however dark, however disproportionate, upon the perpetrator. Once labeled a criminal, an individual's right to fair treatment is utterly expunged, and any violation or degradation, however grotesque, is seen as something that they brought on themselves."

(h/t : The sideshow)

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:23:16 PM EST
Well, to start with it's worth noting that the loudest denunciations came from the White House -- an entity with no legal standing whatsoever in the Scottish judicial system.

I already found several American right wing blogs that complained that the White House didn't stop Scotland from freeing Al Megrah. For them it is self evident that Scotland will only do what it is allowed to do by the US.

by rz on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:56:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, that's the Charlie Stross - one of the few people writing modern SF that's well worth reading.

I didn't know he blogged. Although I suppose I shouldn't really be surprised - at all - considering.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A nugget from the reactions to yesterday's regional elections in Germany -- from the mouth of federal and Saarland Left Party leader Oskar Lafontaine (a.k.a. "Red Oscar"; long-time PM of Saarland back when he was in the SPD):

Analyse: Die Welle Lafontaine - sueddeutsche.de  Analysis: The Lafontaine wave - sueddeutsche.de
«Es freut mich, dass wir durch unser Ergebnis der SPD eine neue Machtperspektive eröffnet haben.»"I am glad that we opened new power perspectives for the SPD with our result."

Ouch, that must hurt in the Willy-Brandt-Haus...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:39:24 PM EST
(For context: the SPD, though it got less than 25% even in Saarland, is now in the position to get back into government in two states -- thanks to possibilities offered up by the Left Party's strong showing.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:44:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Anyone with photoshop skills could have a ball generating LOLOskar pictures right now.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I spent the afternoon traversing the Falls of Clyde Nature Reserve. There are three waterfalls upstream from New Lanark lying on the Clyde Walkway: Dundaff Linn (3 metres) is the closest to the village. Corra Linn (28 metres) is about 20-25 minutes walk, and Bonnington Linn (11 metres) about 30-45 minutes walk. Loved it, despite the drizzle.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:56:14 PM EST
they do not look salmon friendly

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:59:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Plockton area is.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Sep 2nd, 2009 at 09:33:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Canadian Globe and Mail delivers:

Super-Europe no more!

Here is my summary:

  1. Some nations on the European continent, none of which is part of the Eurozone and some which do not even belong to the EU, are going bankrupt.

  2. The ECB can not set rates that perfectly suit all countries in the Eurozone.

  3. Turkey might not join the EU anytime soon.

  4. Energy security is problematic.

  5. Ireland might or might not reject the Lisbon Treaty a second time.

From this follows: Europe is doomed!

As a bonus the article claims that the Tories reject expansion of the EU, when in fact it is absolutely clear from the party manifesto from the EU election that they strongly support expanding the EU as far as possible.

by rz on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 12:59:48 PM EST
I was having a conversation about Croatia's predicament earlier today regarding 1 and 2. Croatia also might not join the EU before 2019 in my opinion. I'll post more when I get home later tonight.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:05:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sure the UK tories have no view on the EU as their only policy seems to be to undermine and discredit it as much as possible with a view to leaving asap.

 

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:05:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're wrong. Tory Euroscepticism is a cynical game that they're able to play by virtue of the idiocy of the press in England and the (well, relative) decency of Labour not to go along. Their purpose is to stay in the EU to slow political integration, which also explains their stance on enlargement, and to pay as little as possible and participate in as little as possible while doing so.

(of course the question is what would've happened if a true believer like Davis Davis ever got into power)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
their main problem is that the party are little englanders who want out as soon as possible, not just on petty nationalist principles but also because they really do see the bureaucracy of the EU as a threat to their corporate libertarian tendencies. If they cannot control that with a view to abolishing it, then they want out.

however, the business community, not least the City, see the EU as a useful captive market which would make life hard if they were outside.

so we have this constant dance within the party between the nativist idealogues and the business pragmatists. It is my belief that the nativists plan always to discredit the EU; by expansion, by creating yet more logjam in the bureaucracy, all with a view to driving the pragmatists to lose their religion.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
so we have this constant dance within the party between the nativist idealogues and the business pragmatists.

That is certainly correct. But (as I also argue below) it is my impression that the business pragmatists currently have the upper hand.

by rz on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:45:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but Hague is a big power in the party right now and he's definitely in the nativist camp. Davis may be a pragmatist but his championing of citizen's rights was inconvenient and embarrassing to a tory hierarchy who were fairly comfortable with the authoritarian tendencies of NuLab. So his influence is definitely limited.

I think cameron is a nativist in his heart but who is currently persuaded the pragmatists have a point. I am sure that he could be unpersuaded in the right circumstances.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:54:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bureaucratically, the EU is a model of efficiency - there are UK ministries that have more staff and a bigger budget (proportionately) than the EU. Admittedly this is only because a lot of administration (eg CAP) actually takes place in the member countries. But that simply means that the bureaucratic inefficiencies are in the members' structures - like the UK, not in Brussels.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:07:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know that. You know that. But I'm not really sure that many people in the UK know that as the dominant meme in the UK is of "EU bureaucrats creating reams and reams of red tape to destroy British competitiveness".

I actually think this is now such an accepted image that people who really do know better still find their thinking influenced by it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU has done a very poor job of communicating its efficiency...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Leaving the EU is impossible for the UK mainly because of its foreign policy implications. It would almost instantly  establish the dreaded dominant power on the continent whose interests are poorly aligned with those of the UK.

Enough tory elites realise this (as do the Economist and FT, who will remind them if needed), but there are some idiot true believers who don't.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:12:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
an entirely understandable logical conclusion. From a reality based veiwpoint.

I'm increasingly convinced that the tories take their cue from the less rational reaches of the republicans. They may not share the same religious affinities, but their belief in "the purity of the market" could lead them into places where practicality or even sanity count against you.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:22:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When I look at the Tories I see a bunch of Eton boys at the top. Which is fortunate. Still the same old system. I'm sure their dads or teachers or other patrons will bring the point across.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At my more paranoid I do think they're the small schoolboy who's going to do the thing the big boys are too sensible to do though.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 09:43:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is possible that the Tory MEPs are somewhat detached from their national brethren. Notheless the European Manifesto (pdf) is chock-full of policy prescriptions for the EU.

Needless to say that most prescriptions are aimed at making the EU a pure free trade zone. In so far you are right about "undermining the EU".

by rz on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How do I get to stay in Europe when that group of nationalist fruitcakes takes us back to the 19th century?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:30:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm wondering the same thing. I'm hoping France will accept refugees.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:34:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How far south will the refugee camps be?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brittany is fine for me.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:48:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Im thinking further distance might be handy, if they're heading back they might be heading back as far as the Napoleonic wars.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:53:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brittany's already full of British refugees. Too bad.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:25:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
apart from the North East, I'd say that applied to the whole of France. Especially the Languedoc.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:49:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clever-Clogs sez:

Ah, but there was already an earlier refugee migration that gave Brittany its name...

:)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:12:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought it was vice versa, that Britain got its name from the celtic Bretons who moved there, the celtic migration route being north through spain and up the W coast of europe. (and I write that as if there's an east coast)

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The original Celtic name of Brittany was Ar Mor (the sea), Latinised to Armorica. It took on the name Brittany when Britons, squeezed westward by Germanic invasions in the 5th century, migrated and settled there.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:55:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, ya live and learn. Ironic that viking invaders settled just around the coast and were named the "north men" by the Bretons. These normans then went and beat up on those german invaders in 1066 (an' all that).

Meanwhile the armorica went and named a continent.

france; the gift that keeps giving.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 05:01:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From the Tories manifesto and statements by relevant politicians (no Daniel Hannan doesn't count) I am convinced that they have very clear vision of how the EU should look like and they will stay in the EU to make that happen.
by rz on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:43:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Europe.Is.Doomed™ Alert]

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 04:02:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fed makes $14bn profit on crisis loans  | Financial Times
The Federal Reserve has made a $14bn profit on loan programmes that have provided hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity to the financial system since the start of the crisis two years ago, according to Fed officials.

The internal estimate is based on the difference between the fees and interest on the lending facilities and the interest the Fed would have earned had it invested the funds in three-month Treasury bills.

<...>

Critics have warned the central bank might lose money on its vast efforts to avoid financial collapse and ease financing conditions for the economy as a whole.

But the internal estimates suggest that the Fed might well make a cash profit on the crisis. They show that the fees earned on the loans were high enough to more than cover defaults to date - leaving a sizeable cushion against future losses on these loans and other parts of the Fed portfolio.

Some politicians have criticised the Fed for using billions of dollars of public funds to support the market and stricken groups such as AIG and Bear Stearns. The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned from $800bn in 2007 to about $2,000bn. A recent Gallup Poll found the Fed had the worst public approval rating of nine government agencies, even lower than the tax authorities.



The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion, but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence.
by marco on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:17:31 PM EST
$14 billion sounds like about the dollar amount the hand money out has lost in value in comparison to the euro for that time period.
by Magnifico on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Raft of Deals for Failed Banks Puts U.S. on Hook for Billions | The Wall Street Journal
The biggest spur to deal-making among banks isn't private-equity cash or foreign investors. It is the federal government.

To encourage banks to pick through the wreckage of their collapsed competitors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has agreed to assume most of the risk on $80 billion in loans and other assets. The agency expects it will eventually have to cover $14 billion in future losses on deals cut so far. The initiative amounts to a subsidy for dozens of hand-picked banks.

Through more than 50 deals known as "loss shares," the FDIC has agreed to absorb losses on the detritus of the financial crisis -- from loans on two log cabins in the woods of northwestern Illinois to hundreds of millions of dollars in busted condominium loans in Florida. The agency's total exposure is about six times the amount remaining in its fund that guarantees consumers' deposits, exposing taxpayers to a big, new risk. ...



The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion, but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence.
by marco on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 01:47:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Bank of England creates £175 billion in QE money; buys gilts with it that pay maybe 3 to 4% return; and then pays the banks 0.5% on their excess reserves.

The net result for the Treasury (after receiving the Bank's profits) is essentially a 0.5% temporary overdraft.

Ahhh.....the wonders of Seigniorage

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:06:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I eagerly await the calculation that shows how having the Fed and Treasury bail out Wall Street will be so profitable that it will close the deficit.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 02:28:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
El Pais:  The leader of United Left party explains to the king its plans to accomplish the end of the monarchy.
http://tinyurl.com/njl3z7  

...as the new leader of the party....
first he explained the party's real (also means 'royal' in Spanish) proposals to deal with the crisis....  
... the party's work in favor of a "federal, solidary and republican" state, as well as its "effort to reach the arrival of the III Republic".

Supposedly, the meeting lasted an hour.  

In the photo, the king looks aged and his new beard over the extra-left-red tie doesn't help, while the lefty has given up that useless, luxury item.  

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:41:04 PM EST
<waves from a Greek harbour>

I've been checking e-mail three times a day on my phone, which means I've been pretty much isolated from world events, which is interesting.

Have to work for an hour today, which is why I've pulled out the laptop and am actually on-line properly. I'm not obviously missing anything, from looking at the headlines.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 1st, 2009 at 06:32:31 AM EST


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