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by nanne Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 10:05:43 AM EST
Recent coverage: Federal Elections in Germany by nanne Nuclear Dump (of final storage and German elections) by DoDo
Oh, wait. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Postal voting, which is expected to be more significant this time around, was not considered.
Poor turnout on election day should bode ill for the SPD, but DER SPIEGEL speculates that the number could still turn around as it's a pretty day across Germany. Which reminds me that I should go outside for a few hours.
The first projections are expected at 18:00, if there's no twitter leak before that point.
http://search.twitter.com/search?q=CDU+SPD+FDP
But not very reliable yet, as far as I can judge.
Welcome to the live blog of the German election, a showdown between Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (left) and Chancellor Angela Merkel (right). More than 50 Reuters correspondents, photographers and television crews in Berlin and across Germany will be tracking the story throughout the weekend.
The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, rallied her party faithful for one last push on the eve of today's election, arguing that only the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) would keep the country on a stable course, re-energise the economy and safeguard the interests of working people. The election is expected to be close, perhaps very close, with the last polls showing the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) continuing to close the gap on the centre-right CDU-CSU alliance. Ms Merkel, who hopes to serve a second term at the head of a new, less constrained, coalition, with the free-market FDP rather than SPD, had returned from the G20 summit in Pittsburgh only hours before. She cited her international experience and stature in support of her bid to remain in power. But tiredness told, and Ms Merkel, while her serious and feisty self, at times appeared hesitant and less fluent than usual.
The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, rallied her party faithful for one last push on the eve of today's election, arguing that only the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) would keep the country on a stable course, re-energise the economy and safeguard the interests of working people. The election is expected to be close, perhaps very close, with the last polls showing the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) continuing to close the gap on the centre-right CDU-CSU alliance.
Ms Merkel, who hopes to serve a second term at the head of a new, less constrained, coalition, with the free-market FDP rather than SPD, had returned from the G20 summit in Pittsburgh only hours before. She cited her international experience and stature in support of her bid to remain in power. But tiredness told, and Ms Merkel, while her serious and feisty self, at times appeared hesitant and less fluent than usual.
ZDF:
If this holds we'll see a debate within the SPD about a change in the leadership. On Phoenix they're already speculating about Nahles and Wowereit.
Wowereit: I have no sense on how he'd play outside of Berlin (or even if he has those kinds of ambitions). What's the local take on him? The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
He's an excellent politician but not the sharpest analytical mind, or at least that's not how he comes across to me. Nahles also has a minor perception problem of being too much of a party operative. But she might fit well in the role of Müntefering, and Wowi might fit well in the role of Steinmeier. Of course, there would be others who aspire to that role, among them Sigmar Gabriel.
Gabriel - I dunno. I've heard his standard speech as Environment Minister, and he is (was, now) intelligent enough to understand the problem of climate change and make it the core of his standard pitch (although he's too politically committed to coal to acknowledge the solution). But he's not stirring.
Besides, like Steinmeier and Steinbrück, he's an old Schröderite, and the IMO the SPD needs someone new if it's going to credibly rebuild. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
What I like most is that he has a penchant for irony.
But is that good in the larger sense? I mean, I personally enjoy irony - I think all of us here do.
But for that very reason I fear that might make him less, not more, palatable on the national stage. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
Does Germany have a "day of reflection", a day in which no campaigning takes places immediately prior to the election day? And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
They were very skeptical of the FDP. Promising tax cuts and a balanced budget given the budget reality sounded stupid to them. Not to mention that the FDP was the only party not reflecting on the financial crisis.
That will probably mean that the "FTD" isn´t a "serious" (economics) newspaper any longer, right? At least for the Economist or the WSJ?
Oh, and the Left Party made it into the fourth non-city-state West German regional parliament -- four more remain. (Oh, and on the other side, the Greens made it in another East German state in Brandenburg -- some Reunification.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
ZDF 21:21:
ZDF 22:13:
In both projections, CDU+FDP would have a majority of one only thanks to the local rules overhang mandates that were legally challenged. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
If CDU/CSU+FDP does not gain a majority will the SPD be up for another great coalition? Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
btw: the Pirate Party is getting 2% in the ARD exit poll.
2% is a good result for a first federal election. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
ZDF 21:18:
Platzeck may choose to drop the CDU and coalition with the Left Party. Would be clever thinking of the Bundesrat. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
It should not apply to the Greens at all anymore (but maybe they are seen as jobs-unfriendly with the green policies?), but it might still prevent votes from going to Links? In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I think it´s a mixture right now.
"The Left" are a pretty "new" party. Only a few years old. And there are already red-red coalitions in Eastern Germany at the state level. The next step might be one in Western Germany.
There's little motivation among SPD voters and little desire to go elsewhere, and apparently little organisational attention from the SPD to get people to vote.
At least something is. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
A center-right alliance led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared on course for a narrow victory in Germany's national elections Sunday, potentially putting it in a position to relaunch Germany's stalled economic overhaul at a time of growing demands for Europe's biggest economy to do more for global growth. Ms. Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union and its pro-business ally, the Free Democratic Party, were set to win a slim majority in Germany's lower house of parliament, according to early exit polls.
Ms. Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union and its pro-business ally, the Free Democratic Party, were set to win a slim majority in Germany's lower house of parliament, according to early exit polls.
See - the WSJ says so... In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
"The national mood and the whole party spectrum has shifted to the left," says Josef Joffe, one of Germany's leading political commentators, who teaches international studies at Stanford University and publishes German weekly newspaper Die Zeit. "Neither the FDP nor the CDU will attack the kind of issues that Germany needs to attack, to get off its sclerotic average economic growth of 1.5% in the last decade," Mr. Joffe says.
"Neither the FDP nor the CDU will attack the kind of issues that Germany needs to attack, to get off its sclerotic average economic growth of 1.5% in the last decade," Mr. Joffe says.
And yes, I can´t stand him! He´s a neo-con and an id*ot. But I sure hope he is right here. :)
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
And to the SPD, never never never listen to anybody who tells you to dismantle a social safety net, never, never, they do not know what they are talking about. A lack of what they call efficiency can be much more efficient as a whole if it gives stability and redundancy to the system.
ZDF 21:00:
(24 overhang mandates, thus 622 seats total)
ZDF 21:46:
(16 overhang mandates, thus 614 seats total) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
This is really bitter and i have nothing intelligent to say. Except beware of Guido Westerwelle, it's as if the Financial Times won the election. I say that from the background of my ex-inlaws being FDP powers. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
In the end I think this election bodes worse for the rights of the German labourer and the privatisation of further public services than for the green sector.
the rights of the German labourer and the privatisation of further public services
On this front, I wonder just how much hypocrisy the CSU will allow itself. (My guess: an incredible amount...) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The CSU, at least, would also have to be hypocritical (and against the long-term interests of Bavaria) to go along with the CDU and FDP without objection.
My guess is that labour law will be up first, selling off the Deutsche Bahn afterwards (but they need a 'favourable market environment' for that). Plus the extention of the running time of the nuclear plants, they should try to get that in early, too.
Bundesrat, you meant. Ah, I forgot about that, even though IIRC I dug it up...
But it will be funny (funny in a dark sense) if they want to play protector of the people against the FDP while their own little neolib is making policy as economy minister. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
eeehm... Bundesrat would be the right word...
The new government will not go after workers' rights until after the NRW elections next May (that is, not if they care about getting the CDU-led coalition re-elected). Rüttgers works pretty hard at keeping up relations with labor and has declared himself a support of codetermination. Any move before them will both undercut CDU support and undermine Rüttgers' credibility personally. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
From the day the Schröderite old guard staged its coup against Beck, this was to be expected. The SPD demolished itself, and listening to that media was another symptom of their incompetence. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Although that is probably the point... The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
To me, the mark of how bitter this was, was how early everyone was completely drunk, so i left early.
i was surprised at how many people understood how dangerous the FDP is, but then i live in Das Viertel. But even the CDU speaker said that the results were an anomaly, and shouldn't be used to change every direction completely. he was booed by his own people.
I still have nothing intelligent to say, other than the Bild-Zeitung should be outlawed, but then that would make me a fascist, so better i say nothing. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Foreign ministry for Westerwelle though is a given. But as "Der Spiegel" itself says it is unlikely that the FDP will get both "economic" ministries.
In the past they usually got the economics ministry. Plus justice and 1-2 less important ones. Of course back then they never got 14% or so. So they might insist on more this time.
Finance would be "free" now since Steinbrück is SPD. But normally finance is seen as more important than economics so the larger party would be reluctant to give it up.
On the other hand a FDP finance minister might help Merkel? Depending on who gets it of course. Even a FDP finance minister might be more interested in getting closer to a balanced budget = less debt. And so might be reluctant to agree to large tax cuts.
Plus justice and 1-2 less important ones.
To give the devils their due, they have a history of being less authoritarian than CDU. If one of them could supplant Schäuble at Interior I would count that as an improvement. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
To be fair, she could be characterized as representing a recognized minority opinion in her party rather than as a dissident, seeing as she had Gerhard Baum and Burkhard Hirsch in her corner. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
So, massive social spending cuts on the horizon? En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
The CDU (and CSU in Bavaria) have seen what happened to the SPD after Schroeder´s reforms. And they know the same could happen to them if they initiate massive social spending cuts. I´m not sure they´re willing to risk that.
What I would expect:
One commentator in the "Elefantenrunde" TV discussion of party heads made a remark about the CDU trying to be the "better FDP" in the final days of the election, i.e. pushing for tax cuts. Which makes sense - as the Dems in the US could tell them (had they the insight), when faced with a policy and a "policy lite", voters will always vote for the real thing. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
Sorry to correct you again, but didn't you mean the CSU? :-) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
the center-left already discredited themselves and couldn't give a coherent criticism,, while the hard left couldn't step up to take its place.
So what goes on? Liberalism a la FDP isn't sustainable. While it's true that Germans have a whole hell of a lot of social safety net to burn before they get themselves into the position that Americans find themselves, it's a possibility.
And this is true basically everywhere. Certainly in the USA. When you have no coherent Left alternative, what happens?
Part of the answer seems to be that initially be that people withdraw from politics. Europe seems to be at where the US was twenty years ago in that sense.
But now in the US, people are reengaged, and still things stall along.
What happens when their is no possibility for change within the given system of politics, and pressures are building up for change within it? Rupture and reformation of a new democratic regime? Authoritarianism? Something else?
I need to get to Hannah Arendt, but I believe that some of Harvey's (the guy behind a brief history of neo-liberalism) more academic stuff gets into how liberalism turns authoritarian when it starts hitting these walls it can't deal with. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
With the creation of the Socialist Party of America, this group formed the core of an element which favored Democratic socialism over Orthodox Marxism, deemphasizing social theory and revolutionary rhetoric and in favor of honest government and efforts to improve public health. The Sewer Socialists fought to clean up what they saw as "the dirty and polluted legacy of the Industrial Revolution,"[3] cleaning up neighborhoods and factories with new sanitation systems, city-owned water and power systems, and improved education. The movement has its origins in the organization of the Social Democratic Party, a precursor to the Socialist Party of America.
In this US, the profusion of levels of government means that if you don't win on national level you can fight locally.
I have to wonder whether the Left has to be redeemed at the local level before there can be national Left alone an international Left. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
Part of the answer seems to be that initially be that people withdraw from politics.
This was the lowest participation in a German federal election, right? Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Not that the Social Democrats haven't been busy doing it for the better part of this decade. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
while the hard left couldn't step up to take its place.
Sucks to be a Keynesian today, with such friends as the hard left, who needs enemies... Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
The thing is, with the Social Democrats having adopted the neoliberal economic consensus since the "Third Way" of 15 years ago, they are part of the cause of the crisis.
At least the FDP has not been in power while the CDU and the SPD implemented its economic ideology so they have some sort of plausible deniability... En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
W(h)ither the Left is well worth a separate diary.
It's the most important question now.
When Keynes is seen as some kind of wacky tripped-out hippy extremist by the so-called Official Left, politics has gone far beyond plain dysfunction into outright suicidal insanity.
The way Krugman puts it, it's remarkable what the conventional wisdom says about Keynes...
Keynes did not, despite what you may have heard, want the government to run the economy. He described his analysis in his 1936 masterwork, "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money," as "moderately conservative in its implications." He wanted to fix capitalism, not replace it. But he did challenge the notion that free-market economies can function without a minder, expressing particular contempt for financial markets, which he viewed as being dominated by short-term speculation with little regard for fundamentals. And he called for active government intervention -- printing more money and, if necessary, spending heavily on public works -- to fight unemployment during slumps.
We are too ignorant either of what individual agency in its best form, or Socialism in its best form, can accomplish, to be qualified to decide which of the two will be the ultimate form of human society. If a conjecture may be hazarded, the decision will probably depend mainly on one consideration, viz. which of the two systems is consistent with the greatest amount of human liberty and spontaneity.
If a conjecture may be hazarded, the decision will probably depend mainly on one consideration, viz. which of the two systems is consistent with the greatest amount of human liberty and spontaneity.
It's not about whether their policies have been tried or not. It's about them being able to claim that their policies have not been tried. All they need is a sufficiently big fig leaf that their tame newsies can keep a straight face while they pretend to take their insanity as wisdom.
And if you pay your tame newsies enough, "sufficiently big" is very small indeed.
But hey, at least Siemens make trains that actually run. That's still better than what the Italians and Americans have to show for their lunatic far-right parties...
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
The masses of salary and wage-earners are adrift with no offer of a complete, hope-bearing narrative from the left. Large numbers of them are tempted to take the only ideology in town, and believe that yet more economic liberalism is what's needed to move ahead and reach the good life.
We haven't seen 20 % real unemployment in Europe yet. When we do (and we will if we keep electing far-right lunatics), there'll be a landslide. Either to the left or to the even farther right.
Our job is to make sure that the neo-Nazis (whatever their guises) are whacked rather firmly over the head whenever they show up. As long as we can do that - and keep doing that - things'll break our way eventually.
And there's always the option of federal intervention if a country goes Mississippi Burning on us. So we have a backstop in the EU that we didn't have the last time around. We don't yet know how effective that backstop would be, and I'd rather we never had to learn, but it's nice to have it all the same.
Still, much as I find Corruptioni scary, I think he's more of a mafiosi than a brownshirt. He does not strike me as someone who is bent on making a revolution.
Most importantly (mafia connections aside), he doesn't seem to have a cadre of organised, violent thugs as part of his party machinery. And that's really the distinguishing characteristic of fascism, as opposed to general xenophobic far-right, anti-people, pro-fatcat assholes like Corruptioni.
Plus, while Corruptioni may be hard on the Italian people, he's not going to seriously export his racket to the rest of Europe; I wouldn't trust his gang to organise a drinking party in a distillery, nevermind stage a continent-wide revolution. Le Pen and Jobbik, OTOH, are just barely bright enough that they might be able to do that.
http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/
Right now 270 out of 299 districts are reporting. It should be near 99% soon. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
For JakeS: the creationists of the also undead Party of Bible-Faithful Christians scored 0.1% (40,000 votes at this stage of counting). *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Those voters deserve a better alternative. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Again focusing on what goes on below the 5% limit:
So overall, a leftward shift in the electorate resulted in a rightward shift in government. I wonder how much of the right-coalition's gains came from the constituency seats and how much from the lists.
I wonder how much of the right-coalition's gains came from the constituency seats and how much from the lists.
The percents posted are for the lists. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
(As before, I compared percentages to the 2005 elections, but seats to the final state of the outgoing Bundestag.)
(The outgoing single MP of the Pirate Party was aman resigning from the SPD after police found pedophilic material in his home. He claimed it was for a private investigation, an explanation accepted by the PP but with no evidence accepted by courts.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
That's a majority of one for CDU+FDP, pending the challenge to the local election rules (for the overhang mandates that helped the CDU). *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
PM Platzeck left it open whether he wants to continue the Grand Coalition with the CDU or ally with the Left Party this time. Given that the federal SPD was left with one place to exert power, the federal upper house (Bundesrat, which consists of representatives of the regional governments of the 16 federal states), the second choice would be advisable (with a Grand Coalition, Brandenburg would be forced to abstain on issues the CDU and SPD disagree on).
The combined 3.96% for the three far-right parties (the two listed and the 0.2% for Republicans), who ended their strategic alliance in not running against each other, is a welcome drop, but still not reassuring. What should matter is whether the most extremist but dominant of them, the NPD, can maintain its local grass-roots presence. (Unless I am mistaken, with 2.5%, they'll get state funding...) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
(That's Guido Westerwelle, boss of the FDP and likely future foreign minister) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
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