Tonight's election results will produce the usual rush to judgment by pundits and partisans alike. Given the magnitude of the projected GOP gains, the polls probably won't even be closed in any state before at least one person in both of those groups begins to stay that this is the start of a realignment in U.S. politics that will last for generations.Anyone who uses "realignment" tonight, tomorrow, or in the next few months to characterize the 2010 election will either be guessing or spinning.

And here is the discussion that took place on Sunday.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

David Brooks says Repubs will come out of their successful election more "humble." http://nyti.ms/d4Q24M Ignores history; defies parody.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

What the fuck has Obama done so far?

Structurally and adducing historic norms, the Dems should keep control of both Houses of Congress.  

Nate Silver was projecting 13:1 odds of a Democratic Senate with a negligible chance of a filibuster-proof majority, and 1:5 odds of a democratic house.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

Confusing, isn't it?  ;-)

Generally speaking, the polls will start closing at minus 6 Greenwich Mean Time and then for the next 3 hours.  So I predict by the time California and the other Pacific Coast states start reporting you'll be asleep & I'll be on my (a) second bottle of wine or (b) hitting the brandy ... depending on how things be going.  

Useless but Interesting Fact:  Indiana (GOP stronghold) suppresses voting by closing early before people with jobs can get there.  That's why Indiana always reports with the East Coast.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

A message to the Tea Party : What took you so long ?

You didn't get mad when the Supreme Court stopped a legal recount and appointed a President.  

You didn't get mad when Cheney allowed Energy company officials to dictate Energy policy and push us to invade Iraq .

You didn't get mad when a covert CIA operative got outed.

You didn't get mad when the Patriot Act got passed.    

You didn't get mad when we illegally invaded a country that posed no threat to us.   You didn't get mad when we spent over 800 billion (and counting) on said illegal war.    

You didn't get mad when Bush borrowed more money from foreign sources than the previous 42 Presidents combined.      

You didn't get mad when over 10 billion dollars in cash just disappeared in Iraq .      

You didn't get mad when you found out we were torturing people.      

You didn't get mad when Bush embraced trade and outsourcing policies that shipped 6 million American jobs out of the country.

You didn't get mad when the government was illegally wiretapping Americans.      

You didn't get mad when we didn't catch Bin Laden.

You didn't get mad when Bush rang up 10 trillion dollars in combined budget and current account deficits.      

You didn't get mad when you saw the horrible conditions at Walter Reed.    

You didn't get mad when we let a major US city, New Orleans drown.    

You didn't get mad when we gave people who had more money than they could spend, the filthy rich, over a trillion dollars in taxbreaks. You didn't get mad with the worst 8 years of job creations in several decades.    

You didn't get mad when over 200,000 US Citizens lost their lives because they had no health insurance.    

You didn't get mad when lack of oversight and regulations from the Bush Administration caused US Citizens to lose 12 trillion dollars in investments, retirement, and home values.    

No.....You finally got mad

When a black man was elected President and decided that people in America deserved the right to see a doctor if they are sick.

Yes, illegal wars, lies, corruption, torture, job losses by the millions, stealing your tax dollars to make the rich richer, and the worst economic disaster since 1929 are all okay with you, but helping fellow Americans who are sick...Oh, Hell No!!  

The FL-Gov race is the one that interests me.  State CFO Alex Sink vs convicted Medicare fraudster Rick Scott.  This has the makings of a new all-time-low for Florida politics: A state loaded with more Medicare recipients electing the guy whose company was convicted in the largest Medicare fraud case in history.

That he made it through the primary was mind-blowing.  That he might win the general election is too weird for even the Onion to have thought it up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

Tea Party funeral today

Today is a good day.  It's the day the Tea Party died.  It matters not how many of their house candidates win.  What matters is that if conventional wisdom holds, they have cost the Republicans the Senate.

This loss is all "the white boys" need for an excuse to cut them loose, along with screechy lady Palin.  And guess what, Palin knows it, you danged betcha she knows.  

I'm just not convinced it's a good thing

keep to the Fen Causeway

Over half of voters named the economy as the country's top problem, with no other issue coming close. Nearly all said the economy is in bad shape and expressed concern about its condition over the next year. Roughly 4 in 10 said their family's financial condition has worsened under President Barack Obama. About 6 in 10 say that overall, the country is heading on the wrong track.

...

Roughly 4 in 10 voters consider themselves supporters of the conservative tea party. About 1 in 4 voters consider their vote a message of support for the tea party and nearly as many said their vote was meant to signal opposition -- but most said the tea party wasn't a factor. Tea party supporters were nearly all extremely negative about Obama and his policies.

...

Given three choices, about 4 in 10 want Congress to focus on reducing the federal deficit while nearly as many prefer spending to create jobs. Tax cuts finished last. Only about 4 in 10 want to continue all of the broad tax cuts that were approved under President George W. Bush, including reductions for people earning at least $250,000 annually. Most of those remaining want to let the cuts expire for the wealthiest earners, while a small number want to let them all expire. Close to half want to repeal the health care overhaul Obama enacted this year, while about the same number want to expand it even further or leave it in place.

This election season there's been plenty of talk of about aliens--but not the kind that are the focus of a ballot initiative in Denver, Colorado, where I'm reporting from today. Initiative 300 asks voters a simple question: "Are you ready for the truth?" The only truth the backers of the initiative appear to be seeking, however, is access to information about what the government, military, etc. know about contact between humans and aliens. See, it's not just California that gets the fun ballot initiatives.

KY-02: Bellwether lean-D race. Yarmuth (D) down 53.4-45.6 with 1.4% in (and no urban votes)

IN-02: Bellwether tossup race. Donnelly (D) down 56.9-37.6 with 6.7% in.

IN-09: Bellwether tossup race. Hll (D) down 53-41.9 with 8.3% in.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

We're still waiting for a bit more data before we release our live forecast updates, but so far, our model has revised its projection to a G.O.P. gain of 55-56 seats rather than 54-55. Not a huge deal, obviously, but it likes what it's seeing from Republicans so far in Indiana, even as most of the other House races so far are playing about to expectations.

Chandler (KY-06) in a nail biter.  Up 1 and a bit with ~76% in.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

That's ... unexpected.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

BIg one: MSNBC calls W. Va for Manchin. No way GOP can take Senate now (unless Boxer loses).

Good riddance.

this was a seat the Dem leadership purposely kept out of the hand of a primary challenger because "otherwise we'll lose the seat."

HA!


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

I really, really, hope this proves to be wrong.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

Another Dem bites the dust.

R +5
D +1

R up 4, so far, on the night.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

D up 1

Net: R +6

Still uncertain.  The GOP doesn't seem to be running away with it.  The Dems are winning some toss-ups.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

(from kos)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

(it's going to be a vinous night here at the household.)

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

RT @thereidreport: If you are a Dem living in Florida, you might want to consider moving. By tomorrow it will be Alabama. Seriously. // eeuw

Many voters in Florida's 24th have been up in arms about excessive government spending, while at the same time bewailing cuts to NASA spending on the Kennedy Space Center in their backyard.

Christine O'Donnell: "We have won. Delaware not the same." No, actually, you cost GOP both senate and congressional seat.

R up 8

Which isn't good but isn't disastrous.

Wonder if the GOP are going to pay the price for the Tea Baggers across Texas and the South West?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

Still not seeing the Tsunami.  Night is still young.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

Rand Paul on CNN--those who want to go back to Clinton tax rates unfit for office.

D up 1

Net +10 R

Except for NH-01 all their gains have been in the South or the Virtual South, i.e., Indiana.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

1. 50% of voters in Indianna and Kentucky agree with the teaparty. those are some terrrifying numbers 6 minutes ago via TweetDeck
2. 18 months ago I said the Teaparty was likely to grow as dangerous as the Nazi movement. I was beaten up for. Think it's bad now? Just wait.

another Blue Dog bites the dust.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

Alert: Bachmann on MSNBC with Matthews. Will she use subpoena power to probe Dem members on anti-Americanism?

R up 13

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

PA could flip the House all by itself now.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

They need 22 more to take control of the House.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

18 more to go until Speaker Boner.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

R + 32

7 more till Speaker BonefuckingHead

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

• Arizona Proposition 106 (passed 55:45)

  This measure would amend the state constitution, making it illegal for any health-care plan to be mandatory for people in Arizona

  Similar measures passed 65:35 in Oklahoma but were defeated 53:47 in Colorado
  
• Arizona Proposition 107 (passed 60:40)

  This measure would ban affirmative-action policies in public employment, education and contracting

  
  
• Arizona Proposition 113 (passed 61:39)

  This measure would ensure that workers get a secret ballot to vote for union representation. Some people believe secret ballots would make it harder to unionize employees

  Similar measure passed 86:14 in South Carolina, Utah 60:40 and South Dakota 79:21
  
• Arkansas Issus 1 (passed 83:17)

  This measure would amend the state constitution to establish a formal right to hunt, fish, trap and harvest wildlife

  Similar measures passed 89:11 in South Carolina and 90:1 in Tennessee but was defeated 56:44 in Arizona
  
• Kansas Amendment 1 (passed 88:12)

  This measure would amend the state constitution to include the right to bear arms

There are only a few ways this plays out. A few scenarios:

1. The Tea Party is rejected outright by the voters on November 2. A handful of their candidates do win their races; and for the next few years, the Democrats have a grand time pointing out their sheer wingnuttitude, bolstering a compelling case against electing any more of them in the future. The party begins to lose momentum, and in a few years is defunct.

2. The Tea Party elects a credible number of these 70-odd candidates -- enough to make a solid showing and establish its political bona fides, but not enough to get anything serious done. If this happens, progressives need to work fast and hard. If this right-wing tide continues to build as we head into the 2012 election, we'll still be cruising straight into a fascist future -- just not quite yet. There's time to stop it, but the momentum is not on our side -- and stopping it only gets harder with every passing week.

3. A solid majority of the Tea Party candidates win their races, cementing the movement's lock on the GOP and turning it into a genuine political power in this country. They've already promised us that if they take either house of Congress, the next two years will be a lurid nightmare of hearings, trials, impeachments, and character assassinations against progressives. (Which could, in the end, backfire on the GOP as badly as the Clinton impeachment did. We can hope.) Similar scorched-earth harassment awaits officials at every other level of government, too. And casual violence against immigrants, gays, and progressives may escalate as the Tea Party brownshirts become bolder, confident that at least some authorities will either back them up or look the other way.

In this scenario, the fail-safe point -- the point beyond which no country has ever turned back from the full fascist nightmare -- may well be behind us when we wake up on November 3. From there, the rest will play out in agonizing slow motion; and the character of the rest of this decade will hinge almost entirely on whether the corporatists, the militarists, or the theocrats ultimately get the upper hand in the emerging regime.

Voters think the economy's a wreck...but who's to blame? Thirty-five percent of voters in early exit polls pin the blame on Wall Street. The next name on the list: former President Bush - 29 percent point their fingers in his direction. President Obama follows, at 24 percent.

AS VEGAS -- The Denver Post has made its call on what seems readily apparent: Michael Bennet will win most of the remaining votes in Colorado's U.S. Senate race and keep his seat. In Alaska, the vote for write-in candidates has exceeded the vote for Joe Miller now by a sizable margin, around 13,000 out of 199,701 total votes. What happens now in that state is a long count, with Murkowski presumed by us corrupt bastards in the media as the winner. If Murkowski does win the count, there'll be a determination by Miller's team on whether to challenge the write-in votes that don't exactly say "Lisa Murkowski."

And compare that to what punk-ass runaway Democrat Evan Bayh wrote in the New York Times: "We also overreached by focusing on health care rather than job creation during a severe recession...we were too deferential to our most zealous supporters...we must prove to moderates that Democrats can make tough choices." First off, can we stop saying that Obama focused on health care rather than jobs? The fucking stimulus passed (with almost everything that Republicans wanted in it) before work on health care got going. We had to wait to see if the stimulus worked, and it did help with jobs (it just wasn't big enough so it would appease the non-compromising pricks in the GOP). And, second, fuck you, Evan Bayh, who tucked his tail and his $10 million war chest between his legs and scampered away from the Senate like a whipped bitch on a rainy night.

Here, as far as I can see, are the three big top-line differences:
1. The 2008 electorate was 74% white, plus 13% black and 9% Latino. The 2010 numbers were 78, 10 and 8. So it was a considerably whiter electorate.
2. In 2008, 18-to-29-year-olds made up 18% and those 65-plus made up 16%. Young people actually outvoted old people. This year, the young cohort was down to 11%, and the seniors were up to a whopping 23% of the electorate. That's a 24-point flip.
3. The liberal-moderate-conservative numbers in 2008 were 22%, 44% and 34%. Those numbers for yesterday were 20%, 39% and 41%. A big conservative jump, but in all likelihood because liberals didn't vote in big numbers.

Three of Iowa's Supreme Court justices were voted out of office last night, chalking up a victory for the national anti-gay groups that spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the race.

With nearly all precincts reporting, the three justices -- David Baker, Michael Streit and Chief Justice Marsha Ternus -- were voted out by an average margin of 55% to 45%.

It's the first time an Iowa Supreme Court justice has been ousted since Iowa instituted its system of appointment and retention in 1962.

Last year, the Iowa Supreme Court's seven justices voted unanimously to legalize same-sex marriage in the state, making them a target of groups like the National Organization for Marriage, the American Family Association and the Family Research Council, who declared the ruling a case of gross judicial activism and usurpation of power.

If he ran the Senate half as well as he campaigned, last night would've been a very different story.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

BREAKING NEWS: Benjamin Netanyahu retains control of U.S. Congress.

There's been some debate among the climate hawks about last night's election returns. Politico posted a story suggesting that the toll was especially hard on Democrats who supported the landmark climate change legislation passed by the House last summer. Kate Sheppard observed that quite a few of the Democrats who opposed the bill also lost their seats, and Chris Mims (formerly of Scienceblogs, now at Grist) argues that the election wasn't a referendum on climate change, pointing to the significant numbers of bill supporters who survived last night. NRDC finds the same thing.

In California district 11, former colleague of mine and windpower engineer Jerry McNerney defeated an aptly named rethug, Harmer.

Windpower   82,124
Harmer          82,003

So Jerry wins his 2nd term (3rd??), after first defeating one of the worst environmental thugs with key committee chairs in the Bush Haus period.  Impressive for a red district.  from orange

In a long-time Republican-leaning district, as an incumbent congress person in an anti-incumbent wave of idiocy across the country - against all these political and cultural obstacles and more, McNerney seems to have pulled off a win against an opponent he was trailing less that three weeks ago by - get this - citing his opponents raving, anti-socialism, anti-public education values.
...
121 votes.  Yow.  So, like, every vote counted.

In other words, the very type attacks that have been whipping right-wing furor for the past several years, the kind of rhetoric that has fueled the rise of Sarah Palin and has been keeping Rush on the air for decades, that rhetoric caused enough voters in a conservative district to stick with the democratic, liberal incumbent.  Cries of "The Socialists Are Coming!!!" was deemed too nutty, or too dangerous, for a conservative district.

Of course, Jerry McNerney himself had to use it in an ad he put on the air in the final weeks.  He had to actively campaign with it, not just hope enough people would notice.  He couldn't be afraid to bring it up and attack his opponent with it.  Every Democratic candidate still standing, and any future hopefuls, should take note.  The lunatic, anti-socialist, right-wing rhetoric is a liability, even in a district that should have gone red.

We all owe McNerney a lot, for, as you recall, he unseated Richard Pombo back in '06, one of the most dangerous anti-environmentalist representatives and Tom Delay lap-dogs leftover in the Bush administration.  The fact that McNerney's kept his seat for a third term - in this election - should tell us that we should keep an eye on him.

ps.  Shhh.  Those are Danish turbines.  Jerry knows.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

No matter how bad you think it's going to be, it's actually worse:

The GOP plans to hold high profile hearings examining the alleged "scientific fraud" behind global warming, a sleeper issue in this election that motivated the base quite a bit.