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French Regional Elections open thread

by Jerome a Paris Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 01:22:21 PM EST

Today is the second round of the French regional elections. Last week, the left took a decisive lead, thumping Sarkozy's UMP with, overall, 50% for the left to less than 30% for the right (the rest being made of the hard right, with the FN doing much better than expected, the hard left and a few smaller local parties). This has brought expectations that the left, which already holds 20 of France's 22 regions, could actually do a grand slam and win the last 2 (Corsica and Alsace).

Following the first round, the parties of the left (the socialists, the greens and the communists) managed to unite their lists in most regions, showing a welcome discipline and improving their chances of winning. With a participation rate slightly up from the record lows of the first round (52-53% expected, vs 48% in the first round, and 66% in the second round in 2004), the second round is expected to confirm the message of the first round, ie a resounding slap in Sarkozy's face.


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by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 01:28:12 PM EST


"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 01:54:18 PM EST
This is not actually what I've been seeing on France 3. They picked half a dozen regions and are not even offering an overall view. These regions are called "test" regions". Among them are Languedoc-Roussillon and Poitou-Charentes, where there was never any doubt about the result (so what kind of test were they?), but of course Georges Freche and Ségolène Royal (both won comfortably as expected) appear as rivals or in conflict with Martine Aubry. Of course, the UMP having held Alsace, an appearance is given of a backlash (or at least a return of the tide) against the PS.

Not a word about the other regions in the 20:00 estimations; not a word about united lists on the left. I could feel the narrative coming well before the estimations (that the journalists know in advance). All these serious people telling us we should just be looking at a handful of places, the better to spin this election as not too bad for the UMP.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 03:17:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the left missed the grand slam, so this can be spinned in many ways as not a complete disaster for the left.

However, the numbers should scare the right.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 03:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but interesting that France 3, the regional public channel, should be running such spin - and now showing a police series, no further comment, move along.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 04:03:11 PM EST
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Well, to be fair, they have been discussing it now for some time (just before 11pm) at a time when there been a bit of time for participants to absorb the news , and on their site they say:


21 régions métropolitaines sur 22 à gauche

La gauche maintient ses positions au 2e tour mais rate le grand chelem, l'Alsace restant à droite

En métropole, la gauche gagne la Corse mais la droite reste majoritaire en Alsace, alors que l'abstention (49%) a reculé de plus de 4 points par rapport au 1er tour. En outre-mer, la Réunion est passée à droite face à une gauche divisée.

Avec un score d'environ 54% des voix au plan national, la gauche réalise un score historiquement haut."

http://info.france3.fr/elections/regionales-2010/21-regions-metropolitaines-sur-22-a-gauche-61986154 .html

 

"the left has achieved a historically high score".

 

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 06:05:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They were quite capable of saying that at 20:00, when most people tune in to get the estimates - yet they didn't.

And that the "regional" channel on public television should air a crime series rather than continue delivering the results (or estimates), speaks volumes (even if they came back to the subject later).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 22nd, 2010 at 10:58:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France24 - Sarkozy's party faces stern test in second round of regional polls
France's ruling UMP party faces a heavy defeat in the second round of regional elections Sunday, the last electoral test ahead of a 2012 presidential poll. At 5pm, turnout had reached 43.47%, up slightly from last week's first round.
by Fran on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 02:05:47 PM EST
Alsace still for the right

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 03:00:19 PM EST
regions were the FN was present are:
50% left
33% left
17% FN

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 03:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
regions where the FN was not present:
left: 59%
right: 41%

In both cases, this can only be described as a landslide

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 03:20:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In my department (votes are counted by department):

Left 73%
Right 27%

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 04:05:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is this a standard result or unusual?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 05:02:43 PM EST
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Not surprising, but on the strong side...

In 2004, the left (without Greens) got 66%.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 05:13:00 PM EST
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Sarkozy loses heavily in French regional poll - thestar.com

PARIS-French President Nicolas Sarkozy's centre-right bloc suffered a comprehensive defeat in Sunday's local elections, but managed to cling on to power in one mainland region to avoid a whitewash, exit polls said.

The Socialist party and its allies won some 54 per cent of the vote at a national level, to give the left control of at least 20 of the 22 regions up for grabs on the mainland, while the centre-right won 36 per cent, OpinionWay pollsters said.

The far-right National Front took just 8.7 per cent nationwide, according to OpinionWay, but veteran party leader Jean-Marie Le Pen secured backing of almost 25 per cent of voters in his region in the far south of France, it predicted.

Although Sunday's result represents a triumph for the Socialists, the fact the centre-right appeared set to hold on to the Alsace region in the east was a big relief for Sarkozy, who has come under criticism from his own camp over his policies.

Pollsters said the feeble economy and growing unemployment had taken its toll on the government, with a string of recent controversies, ranging from accusations of nepotism to a debate on national identity, also eroding Sarkozy's popularity.



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 21st, 2010 at 03:44:42 PM EST
Congratulations, French People!!!!  
Best news of the day!

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Mon Mar 22nd, 2010 at 10:20:56 AM EST
congrats france, excellent news.

now italy, pleeeeease...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 03:27:29 PM EST
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