Update on Crash Tupolev 154M

by Oui Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 03:22:07 AM EST

.
See my first comments in fp story by Migeru National mourning in Poland

Crash of Polish Air Force T154 at Smolensk
Looking at ILS compatibility and communication in Russian between pilots and ATC

(Aviation Herald) - The air traffic controller at the Air Base said, the airplane attempted only one approach before radio contact was lost.

Russia's Prime Minister Putin was briefed by local officials, that the required horizontal visibility for the approach to the North Airport would have been 1000 meters with an actual visibility of 400 meters. The airplane impacted trees of a height of about 8 meters (26 feet) about 1200 meters (3950 feet) short of the airfield when the airplane should have been at a height of at least 60 meters (200 feet). The airplane continued to impact multiple single trees and was destroyed before the airplane impacted ground. Emergency responders reached the crash site within 3 minutes. An investigation team of 60 people is on scene.

The air traffic controller at Smolensk Air Base (Northern Airport) said, that the communication between him and the crew was done in Russian, the crew understanding Russian but not being fluent in the language and having trouble to do their readbacks. The airplane was on its first approach, when he advised of the deteriorating visibility and recommended to divert, the crew however responded, that they would give it one try and divert thereafter if they were not able to land. During the approach the crew stopped reading back, the aircraft subsequently impacted ground.

Polish officials confirmed, that the airplane was on its first approach to the Air Base, when it impacted the trees. Three flights were to land at the Air Base in that period of time: the first was a Yakovlev YAK-40 carrying journalists accompanying Poland's president, which made a safe landing. The second was a Russian Ilyushin IL-76, which diverted after two unsuccessful approaches. The third was the presidential Tupolev TU-154M.

In one of my first comments I linked to these two possibilities:

Perhaps if the ILS equipment had a mallfunction ... or pilot received erroneous data from ATC.

"Landing systems' incompatibility may have caused the crash" - military analyst

(RT News) - Speaking to RT, defense analyst and former Polish military pilot Mikhal Fisher noted a previously unmentioned factor that possibly was one of the reasons for the crash.

"In the Soviet Union/Russia they use a unique instrumental landing system called PRMG. It works almost exactly the same way as the international Western system ILS. However, the two are not compatible. The Polish airplane was modified to use the ILS, as the [Soviet] airplane was mainly flying to various airports that use it."

Former test pilot Magomed Tolboev told RT that of all the crashes in which the TU-154 aircraft has been involved, only 10 per cent were caused by technical problems.

Polish air force dismisses five personnel following C-295 crash report

(Flighglobal) - The investigation found that aircraft 019 - one of the air force's two newest EADS Casa C-295s and assigned to its 13th Air Transport Squadron- was fully serviceable at the time of the accident, and that a mix of bad weather, air crew inexperience and air traffic control failings led to its loss near Miroslawiec air base.

The C-295 crew reported in to Miroslawiec control and descended to 8,000ft (2,440m), but received inaccurate information about weather conditions, which included a cloud base of 60-90m and visibility worsening to 3km (1.6nm), with haze and a crosswind. Air traffic controllers also reported altitude in metres rather than feet, as displayed on the C-295's instruments.

My earlier comment: Tupolev TU-154M Crash

Pilot was advised to divert due to heavy fog, it's the captain's call and responsibility. Runway length 2,500 mtr (8,200 ft) isn't very long, came in too low trying to land not being aware of tall tree tops. Poor pilot judgement, safety record of the Tupolev TU-154M is poor and problems were pre-existent in recent past.

Crash: Polish Air Force T154 at Smolensk impacted trees

(Aviation Herald) - A Polish Air Force Tupolev TU-154M was on approach to Smolensk North Airport's (Air Base) unmarked runway (runway heading approximately 270 degrees) in developing dense fog, when the airplane impacted trees about 1500-2000 meters short of the runway and crashed onto the ground coming to rest about 700 meters short of the runway threshold.

The crew was advised by air traffic control in Belarus not to continue to Smolensk due to fog, but to divert to Minsk and later, after hand off to Russian ATC, Russian Air Traffic Controllers recommended to divert to Moscow, the crew however continued to Smolensk. [Notable passengers list]

VIDEO RussiaToday.com

Aviation Safety preliminary report

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

Update on Crash Tupolev 154M | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Update on Crash Tupolev 154M (none / 1)

Yes... landing systems are the obvious first problem when a plane lands too short in bad visibility...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 03:54:41 AM EST

Re: Update on Crash Tupolev 154M (none / 0)

The airplane was on its first approach, when he advised of the deteriorating visibility and recommended to divert, the crew however responded, that they would give it one try and divert thereafter if they were not able to land. During the approach the crew stopped reading back, the aircraft subsequently impacted ground.

That's what the air traffic controllers at Smolensk said? Where, then, do the reports of up to four attempts come from?

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 04:49:07 AM EST

Eyewitness Accounts (none / 1)

.
In the first news reports there was confusion and speculation. I suppose the aircraft in a holding pattern circling a few times could be mistaken for an earlier attempt to land. The locals do not refer to any earlier attempts to land.

Smolensk Crash: Locals eyewitness Kaczynski plane coming down (Video)

Polish Journalists Escape Death
.

"Nobody could believe it" say Polish journalists at crash site

(RT.com) - Polish journalists arrived in Smolensk an hour before the air catastrophe and were among the first to get to the site of the crash. They would have flown on the president's plane had the delegation not been so large.

See extended report by the Polish journalists who arrived at the crash site within 20 minutes.

[Their smaller aircraft did make a landing at Smolensk airport. I'm nor sure if this was the civilian or military (north) airport.]

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 05:46:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Update on Crash Tupolev 154M (4.00 / 2)

Where, then, do the reports of up to four attempts come from?

The previous plane, which ended up diverting, is reported to have made two attempts to land. I guess people on the ground, unable to see what was happening, may have confused them.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 08:35:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

VIP factor (4.00 / 5)

The Wikipedia article on the crash is surprisingly informative and up to date. It mentions the VIP factor: that it is unlikely that the pilot would have attempted a landing in Smolensk had he not been under pressure from the VIPs on board to do so. Obviously, in aviation, safety is normally the first priority, and equally obviously, attempting a landing in an airport that you have been told is closed due to bad weather is unsafe. But if the plane had landed at another airport, the VIPs would not have been able to arrive at the ceremony they were going to on time.

It looks like this was at bottom a military failure. The military on board did not act professionally. The head of the air force was on board. If Kaczyński put the (military) pilot under pressure or indeed ordered him to attempt a landing, the pilot should have refused to follow Kaczyński's wishes. Or the head of the air force should have intervened. Sometimes a bodyguard has to go against his employer's own wishes, for his employer's own safety.

Somehow I suspect that the corporate Western media will mostly overlook this angle. This event can be compared to the destruction of the US space shuttle Challenger in 1986. The fundamental cause of that disaster was organizational failure.

The only thing the Wikipedia article mentions which has not been brought up here is this:

Until 2009 Polish government planes flying VIPs to Russia usually took on a Russian navigator on board, but then the procedure was discontinued and Polish crews handled communications when flying to Russia, with Russian flight controllers reporting no communications problems.

I can't link to the original source, since it's in Polish.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns

by Alexander on Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 02:56:38 PM EST

Re: VIP factor (4.00 / 2)

Russia cites pilot error for Polish jet crash

some wondered whether such a landing would have been attempted on flights carrying VIPs from elsewhere, such as Air Force One, the aircraft used by the US president.
"I think there's a different command structure," said Bill Voss, chief executive of the Flight Safety Foundation, a non-profit group based in the US state of Virginia, who has known crew on Air Force One, but stressed he did not know all the facts of the Russian crash. "I think it would have been a case of `Sorry, we're not landing there, sir'," he said, adding the crew know they have a basic duty to "keep [their] government alive".

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns

by Alexander on Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 08:05:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Lingering Faults in Early Journalist Reports (none / 1)

.
Fourth attempt was the presumption in the first hours after the crash, see Polish paper Krakow Post. Later this has been debunked. The site I linked to seems to be more professional on aviation matters. Btw, Polish journalists were at the scene shortly after the crash. All video material were confiscated, an overreaction? A single video of the crash site was relayed to Poland, the reporter was arrested and later released after intervention by Polish officials.

Further confusion probably due to earlier two landing attempts by Russian military plane IL-76. According to History : Weather Underground between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM that morning the visibility at Smolensk airport changed from 4 kilometers to 0.5 kilometers, the conditions from mist to heavy fog!

Putting blame on VIP syndrome and Katyń massacre controversy between Putin and Kaczynski. The so called 'four attempts' is used as argument for external pressure applied to plane captain. Information received, the captain was present as first officer in plane incident of Kaczynski's Tupolev refusing to land in Georgia.

Another forum with expert input into discussion:

If you zoom in a bit and choose "hybrid" view the crash location is fairly clear.
ASN Accident location map 10 APR 2010 Tupolev 154M 101. In approach between dirt road and paved street is an elevation with tall trees, this is approx. 1.2 km from runway. The plane crashed and ended in mostly open field at approx. 300 meters from runway. For explanation of coming in too low, I did found this reasoning due to language barrier with Russian numbers in translation of QNH and QFE altimeter setting. Diagrams which may help those unfamiliar with overseas QFE altimetry. Was there a communication break down between ATC and the pilot?

Meeting Russian investigation commission with Putin

- Transcript by Google translation

Later video report from RT.com has been 'sanitized':
● video

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 04:46:12 AM EST

Communication With Tower Broke Down (none / 1)

Google translation of interview flight controller of Smolensk air control tower (ACT)

Life News managed to contact the flight airport Northern Plyusnin Paul, who spoke with the crew of the wrecked aircraft during landing.
How was your yesterday's conversation with the crew?
They were asked to go to the alternate. They refused.
You offer them?
Yes.
For what reason?
Because I watch the weather began to deteriorate.
And what was the response?
Answer: "I have fuel permits, I'll do one pass and go to the alternate aerodrome, if not sit down."
And we had information that he was invited to sit in other cities.
It's me he also offered.
And why did he resign?
He had to ask.
Why they took such a decision? They began to curse, or may actively insisted on his point that you could not change his mind?
This was a decision the commander.
What's next? He said that he would leave for another round and go to the alternate aerodrome, right?
No, he said that if you do not sit down, then goes to the alternate.
And your actions have any further?
The rest as they say. Can not you talk more.
But what happened next? They left the connection?
No, why? He was long connected.
What are they talking about?
What are the commands I gave - they are first informed, and then ceased to give any information ...
They stopped to listen to your team?
They must give a receipt, but they did not let her.
And what a receipt?
Data on height during the landing approach.
They do not even give you information about the height of the plane?
Yes.
And what is the risk that they will not give a receipt?
Radio communications with the crew being on radioobmenu they must give a receipt.
Well, why do not they give this receipt?
Well I know? Because they are not fluent in Russian.
Well, nobody among the crew was not Russian?
There were Russian-speaking, but their numbers - it is quite difficult.
So you did not have any information about their height?
Do not.
So it turns out that he once again turned around, went to the landing, did not sit down, and then went to the alternate? Or differently?
No, no, different. One Sunset fulfilled and all. Then he went to the landing.
And go up to the landing, you are forbidden to him?
I could not deny, I recommended to him that it does not need to do!

Russian link

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 10:56:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Communication With Tower Broke Down (4.00 / 2)

Hmm.

Wikipedia: Safety response to the Tenerife Airport Disaster

As a consequence of the accident, there were sweeping changes made to international airline regulations and to aircraft. Aviation authorities around the world introduced requirements for standard phrases and a greater emphasis on English as a common working language. For example, ICAO calls for the phrase "line up and wait" as an instruction to an aircraft moving into position but not cleared for takeoff. The FAA equivalent is "position and hold"[17]. Also several national air safety boards began penalizing pilots for disobeying air traffic controller's orders. Air traffic instruction should not be acknowledged solely with a colloquial phrase such as "OK" or even "Roger", but with a readback of the key parts of the instruction, to show mutual understanding. Additionally, the phrase "takeoff" is only spoken when the actual takeoff clearance is given. Up until that point, both aircrew and controllers should use the phrase "departure" in its place (e.g. "ready for departure"). Cockpit procedures were also changed. Hierarchical relations among crew members were played down. More emphasis was placed on team decision-making by mutual agreement. This is known in the industry as Crew Resource Management.

Then again, reportedly they were landing at Smolensk's Northern (military) airport and the plane was an official government plane (likely with a military pilot) so maybe civilian air safety procedures that have been in force for over 30 years do not apply...

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 11:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You Bet It Was Planned That Way (none / 1)

The Truth about the Fatal Plane Crash in Smolensk

(David Buchanan) - "The pilot told Mr Plyusnin (the Russian air controller at Smolensk) that he would make one approach to land before switching to an alternate destination if he did not succeed." Another news source has eyewitnesses describing the crash. None of them mention the plane making multiple attempts to land. Another article reports "The air traffic controller at the Air Base said, the airplane attempted only one approach before radio contact was lost."

Who would want to eliminate the Polish government? An article in Jewish Currents entitled "The Return of the Radical Right in Poland" reports "Something has gone very, very wrong in Poland. After elections last September, a group called `Law and Justice,' led by a longtime Solidarity activist and right-wing politician named Jaroslaw Kaczynski, emerged as the largest party in parliament.

All it would have taken to cause the accident at Smolensk would have been the sabotage of the plane's altimeter so that the pilot would have thought he was higher up than he was. Thousands of planes land in bad weather in Europe and the US and only a tiny number crash. The arch-criminal Franklin Delano Roosevelt (?) once said "In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way."

Polish pilot Arkadiusz Protasiuk spoke Russian fluenty

[Some links added are mine - Oui]

● Facts about polish Tu-154M 101 crash

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 02:49:06 PM EST

Re: Update on Crash Tupolev 154M (none / 0)

'Impacted' means 'infected'. I think the word you are looking for is 'hit'.

by njh on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 07:57:02 PM EST

Title (none / 1)

.
Is the title of article in Aviation Herald with some good facts and updated maps of the crash site and impact areas.

Crash: Polish Air Force T154 at Smolensk on Apr 10th 2010, impacted trees on first approach

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'