by Jerome a Paris
Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 03:06:20 AM EST
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India."
The actual report can be found here (PDF) but the peak oil assertions are buried fairly deep inside (see p.29), and certainly not underlined in the summary... so we have a fairly schizophrenic approach here, with peak oil acknowledged but downplayed... (for the 2005 view on peak oil by the US Army, see also this report (PDF))
It looks like someone found the nuggets deep in the report, and fed them to friends in the media. Interesting times...