Our ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow has all the parties within sampling error of each other: 

Con 34%  (-1)
Lab 28%  (+3)
Lib Dem 29%  (+2)
Other 9%  (-4)
 (Change on since most recent ComRes poll, 21 April.)

David Cameron outlines plans for electoral reform, including "postal primaries" to choose candidates

So we're trying to hand the Tory party over to the nutters are we Dave?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

I am NOT advocating one specific party. I am advocating not voting the way Rupert Murdoch wants us to. Please do not make this a one party campaign.

I was emailed by White Rabbit who suggested a couple of election graphics for blogs and blog sidebars. Happy to oblige.

Update. I've replaced the first image with my preferred size for this blog but I've left the smaller blog size below it. You can click either image for one 800px wide.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

In May 2008, a triumphant-looking Nadine Dorries, the Conservative MP for Mid-Bedfordshire, adorned newspaper front pages when she launched a campaign to restrict abortion rights. Aided by those who called themselves Christian "fundamentalists", the Tory backbencher was championed by the right-wing press for standing up against "the abortion industry". Dorries and her allies eventually lost the campaign to reduce the legal time limit for abortion, but they were undeterred. This was always going to be a long-drawn-out battle. And they had God on their side.

You could be forgiven for thinking that the David Cameron project has been striking in its unwillingness to say much about faith. None of the inner circle of Cameron, George Osborne, Andy Coulson and Steve Hilton is regarded as particularly religious, and avoiding the subject is part of the Tory detoxification project. Yet there are signs that a change is afoot.

"It's very much possible that old thesis that history is not a science but ideology especially suitable for England.

Here is my advice - in conversations with certain Englishmen don't forget about "strong nationalist feelings in Englishmen". So don't mention that Eskimos were the first inhabitants of the island. And don't mention German heritage as well.

Remember - the average Englishman is very nice man.. however knowledge of foreign languages and European history is rather patchy. So many Englishmen still think they are if not at outright war with Germany (and much hated by real British patriots Europe) then they have just ceasefire. France is very negatively viewed and recently Russia as well.

Once again, remember that England is not Europe. It's only England and that's all. Always was, always will be. Take into consideration that average Englishmen were taught history in different way from your school textbooks.

Historical knowledge in England was shaped mainly by Mr Churchill... According to him history of England started right with Julius Caesar, "the first Briton". Meaning - no Eskimos and other Celts, British empire is rightful heiress of Roman empire. Nothing less, nothing more.

Following after Caesar 1000 years (with various "German" elements) mention only at your risk.

...

And in the end a couple of useful warnings.

1.    Better not to risk to laud a. Germany b. France c. Ireland d. Spain e. US f. Israel. Other countries (including Britain) are also not to be commended. You can admire only England but exercise some caution. For example in London you can laud South England only. Never ever "barbaric" Northern regions of England (we did not mention Scotland at all!)  
2.    Don't ask Englishmen what they think about Vladimir Vladimirovich or Boris Abramovich. They don't think anything particular - 100% sure they would hear these names for the first time.
3.     Who were Brezhnev, Khruschev, Gorbachev or even Yeltsin average English person does not know as well. And does not want to know. However some (very few) heard something about Putin VV. He is labeled as so called Russian hitler (hitler is nickname for any European or foreign politician).
4.    There are four Russian words all Englishmen know - "KGB", "communism", "Joseph Stalin" and "balalaika".

As you can see it's very, very conservative nation"

This quote probably offtopic but if it's true it's not surprising why Murdoch owned media outlets flourish in UK. Especially Daily Mail which seem to publish only fiction.

Otherwise I was surprised a bit by Cleggmania. Not entirely as the same guidebook explain in details that average Londoners like only what is hot at the moment (not was hot last year or even last week). Just look at the British music charts which tend to have new leader every Saturday.

So Cameron fell victim to the capricious English weather to the great delight of left wing press and prince of darkness, Lord Mandelson, who surely will retain business portfolio and spin doctor practice. It's very unlikely that Clegg will ever risk his left wing support by alliance with Cameron. Lib Lab alliance is more feasible with some painful purges on both sides.

The campaign in the Wiltshire seat of Chippenham is being overshadowed by a row over whether the British National Party (BNP) candidate should join hustings debates, writes Katie Razzall.

To invite the BNP or not to invite the BNP - that is the question in Chippenham. The incredibly close fight in this new Wiltshire seat is being diverted by an argument over whether the BNP candidate should be invited to hustings.

The 'Black Farmer', as he's known, is the Tory candidate for Chippenham. This fedora-wearing sophisticate and successful sausage manufacturer, Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones, refuses to share a platform with the BNP. He told me "this is a point of principle, they've got no mandate here and I don't want to legitimise them".

It would be the most radical change of all, in this election in which "change" is the buzzword. It would bring Britain into line with the rest of Europe, at long last. It may be about to happen. Yet it's creeping up on us, hardly noticed in the country at large.

Britain may be about to get its first Green MP. Thirty years after the German Greens, Die Grünen, brought about the biggest real shift in post-war European politics by putting the environment on the political agenda for the first time alongside the economy, health and education, the UK may be about to play catch-up, and let a whiff of radicalism into the corridors of power.

In Brighton Pavilion, the most raffish constituency in that most raffish of seaside resorts, Caroline Lucas, leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, is the bookies' odds-on favourite to be elected to Parliament on 6 May. If she succeeds, she will end the remarkable anomaly by which Britain remains the only major country in Europe which has never had Green MPs in its national legislature.

He argues that one of the main reasons for the rise of anti-politics is that "people feel politics isn't about their lives" - but as he well knows, anti-politics is about all sorts of other things too: expenses, peerages, non-doms, the Iraq war. Strikingly, the latter got only the most passing of mentions in this week's debate and yet there are still scores of people who feel so betrayed by it that they won't vote Labour. "I met some guy in Soho yesterday, when we were launching the Labour lesbian and gay manifesto. And I said to him, 'Look, you've punished us enough about Iraq, all right? So don't start punishing yourself.'

"Some people feel very, very strongly about it, and I respect that. There are people who resigned from the government because of Iraq. But what on earth is the point of punishing yourself or punishing the country for Iraq given that the alternative government, the Tories, also voted for it?"

What does he mean ? Who has been punished ? Where ? I would have crawled over broken glass to see those floggings. He's talking drivel. We went to war based on a lie, or a series of lies, intended to allow us to support bush come what may. Several very senior people knew about those lies. Based on those lies, Britain went to war and, aside from iraqis who may or may not matter very much to the public, British soldiers lives were lost. Based on a lie. Lies that were known and deliberately fabricated and propagated by senior people in the Labour party.

This is tantamount to a conspiracy to commit murder and defraud the British government of revenue that would be better spent elsewhere. Why are these people not identified and facing court proceedings and very long sentences ?

then and only then will the Labour party be considered de-contaminated of Iraq. When the NuLab tendency are exposed and expunged as being factional entryists as alien to the values of the Labour party as the Militant Tendency in the 80s, will Labour be de-contaminated of Iraq. Until then, they haven't been punished at all. So go f... yourself Miliband, you war-mongering scumbag. You haven't even begun to earn the right to beg my foregiveness.

keep to the Fen Causeway

If the swing manifests in marginal consituencies where the Lib Dems have an existing base of support upon which to build, they could pick up quite a number of seats. However, if the swing simply pulls away support from one of the larger parties in seats where the Lib Dems have no real shot of victory, the upshot will be for the Tories or Labour.

Now then, onto the seats themselves. Regardless of whether the Liberal Democrats perform better or worse than their national numbers -- currently about 6.5 percent swing against Labour and 3 percent swing from the Conservatives-- in target marginals, a major concern is how relatively scarce their targets are, particularly targets that take advantage of what looks to be a a weakened Labour party.

...

Looking in the other direction, the Liberal Democrats have a significant number of potential Tory-held targets, including quite a number where Labour support is quite low.

Woke up to the Today programme asking two London correspondents - one French, one American - what their countries thought of the election. The American, Stryker McGuire of Newsweek magazine, talked sensibly about of Washington's concern that the new government should be a decisive one with which Obama could do business. But it was Agnès Poirier of Le Nouvel Observateur who had me sitting up. The election was boring, she said - until Nick Clegg and the "Oh la la!" moment". THIS was exciting. And the French could breathe a sigh of relief: they'd been worrying about that Conservative who looked on Europe with such hostility winning the election - quel horreur - but now one of their own looked poised to triumph. With Nick Clegg playing a big role, Britain would be in Europe's arms and the UK may even join the euro down the line.

Dear Ian,

I'm a bit confused by your article about hung Parliaments in the Telegraph, where you wrote:

The last time a British election failed to produce a decisive result, in February, 1974, the FTSE All Share Index - a broad measure of the stock market - fell nearly 15pc in a month and ended the year more than 50pc below where it began.

The piece even has a graph starting in January 1974 and going through to late 1974.

Why does this leave me confused? Well, I'm sure on most financial matters you know far more than me. But even I know that British share prices had been steadily dropping since early 1972.

As I write this I am aware that this is precisely the sort of "poll based, what if" speculation that angers Gordon Brown. I'm told that Labour has asked the two other big parties to sign a joint letter to broadcasters criticsing them for covering the debates and the polls too much and claiming that the news bulletins had "failed to deliver the usual specialist examination of specific policy areas". The Lib Dems and the Tories have refused to sign. The BBC has yet to receive the letter.

Nick Clegg today warned that he would not prop up the government if Labour came third in the popular vote, and said reform of Britain's "potty" electoral system would be the condition of any deal with the Conservatives.

As another batch of opinion polls suggested a hung parliament is the likeliest result of the election, the focus of the campaign has shifted to talk of coalitions and the role of Clegg as the probable kingmaker.

In an interview on BBC1's Andrew Marr Show, Clegg said Gordon Brown would have no right to carry on "squatting" in Downing Street if Labour received fewer votes than both the Liberal Democrats and the Tories.

And he's right.  But OTOH, Labour may be more willing to carry through on electoral reform than the Tories.

And OTTH, I can't help but feel that the focus on Clegg as Kingmaker is missing an important question.  Surely if Clegg wins more votes than Labour, the question shouldn't be "who will Clegg support?", but "who will support Clegg?"

A CONSERVATIVE Party spokesman, welcoming their latest "celebrity" endorsement, said: "There are a few policy differences between us and the Dalek Empire, but in terms of broad principle, we believe this is a race of ruthless, psychopathic, megalomaniac killing machines David Cameron can do business with."

A Dalek spokesman added: "Actually, we're a bit concerned about some of the more extreme elements of the Tory Party, but we think it is time for a change."

Play around with one of the ubiquitous 'swingometers' that purport to forecast the number of seats in the House of Commons that will change hands pending the results of the United Kingdom's May 6th election, and you'll get the impression that the Labour party, which now controls Parliament, has a fairly large buffer zone before facing total Armageddon. According to BBC's calculator, for instance, an outcome of Conservatives 33 percent, the center-left Liberal Democrats 30 percent, and Labour 28 percent would still leave Labour with a plurality of 276 seats, although far short of the 326 they'd need to achieve a majority and avoid a hung parliament.

But these forecasts are based on a questionable assumption and may understate, perhaps substantially, the magnitude of gains that might be realized by the Tories and by the LibDems. In particular, they are based on the idea of a uniform national swing, i.e., that if Labour finishes 7 points below their standing from the previous election in 2005, their share of the vote will drop by 7 points in each individual district (better known as 'constituencies' in the U.K.).

James, and his number two in London, Rebekah Brooks--a key confidant of the Murdoch children who was also involved in the confrontation with Kelner--had convinced the elder Murdoch, long sympathetic to Labour Party leader, Gordon Brown, to let them endorse the conservative leader, David Cameron, in the race. Alarmed by Cameron's fall in the polls, the two have pressured their papers to pull out all the stops in an effort to aid the Conservatives and undermine Labour and the Lib-Dems.

"It is my job to see that Cameron fucking well gets into Downing Street," proclaimed Tom Newton Dunn, political editor of the Sun, to a group of journalists from rival papers, recently.

It won't make any difference to the election - at least, not one that you can measure. But according to a new analysis it seems - prepare yourself - that the Labour Party (remember them?) has more celebrities with more followers on Twitter who have made their political leanings clear.

And, er, that's it.

If it were summer then we'd feel that it must be the silly season, but it's not - it's the election season, which matches it for silliness.

The list is in the image above, and reproduced below for added clickiness if you want to follow said celebrities.

(by photographer Michael Schofield via his FB page)

The Scottish National Party says it has raised £50,000 to proceed with legal action over the prime ministerial debate on BBC One on Thursday.

The SNP will lodge the necessary papers instigating the action at Edinburgh's Court of Session on Tuesday.

The party said it was not trying to stop the broadcast but it wanted an SNP politician included "for balance".

Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats said the SNP was more interested in grabbing headlines.

Labour is battling to avoid a disastrous third place in next week's election, according to the latest Guardian/ICM poll. It suggests Labour support - 28% in today's poll - has not yet hit bedrock and could fall below 20%.

The ICM figures show the Liberal Democrats' surge is sustained, with all three party scores identical to last week's Guardian/ICM poll. The Conservatives retain a narrow three-point lead on 33% ahead of the Lib Dems on 30%. Labour is close behind on 28%.

The reason is that it reduces his options when talking to Cameron. The #1 thing Lib Dems need to get out of the talks is true electoral reform, particularly a kind of proportional representation that meaningfully ends the flaws of first-past-the-post.

Cameron has no desire to do that, since it might mean the Conservatives never hold power on their own again. So it's in his interest to offer Clegg some lesser form of electoral reform that doesn't include PR. Cameron can give it as a "take it or leave it" offer, knowing that Clegg already publicly ruled out a coalition with a third-place Labour.

Clegg would thus be at the disadvantage, with few better alternatives. He could say he won't coalition at all with the Tories and instead not vote against a budget or a confidence motion and allow Cameron to head a minority government in exchange for a few things, but that's a weak outcome and risks a big step backward for the Lib Dems at the next election, which would likely come in two years' time.

Labour seems more likely to accept some more radical form of electoral reform, especially in their desperate situation. So I fail to see what Clegg has gained here.

And the world will live as one

A ComRes poll for ITV News and the Independent puts the Conservatives on 32%, down two points on yesterday, while the Lib Dems are up two on 31% and Labour are unchanged on 28%

The graphs below show our analysis of positive social media sentiment during the last two weeks of the campaign.   A couple of really interesting points emerge which start to shed light on what's really going on in terms of social media support.

First up you can see that the Lib Dems were well behind in terms of positive mentions but were trending upwards in the days before the debate.  This is very likely because there was increased speculation about the fact that the Lib Dem leader was likely to perform well. 

Then - whoa! - Clegg gets the party a massive spike on the day of the debate itself.

The graph resettles at a higher level than it was before, higher than Labour which had previously outperformed its own polling in terms of social media sentiment share.

@faisalislam IFS critique Cameron's dismissal of LibDem tax plans from first debate ---  Tory plan is net giveaway of £3bn

@faisalislam Highly sceptical about Labour and Conservative manifestos on tax:  History suggests tax rises more than two big parties want to admit

@faisalislam 'LiBDems slightly less bad than Conservatives and Labour': IFS !!

@faisalislam Key fact: between Apr 2011 and MArch 2015:Labour need £51bn of cuts to unprotected areas; Cons £64bn cuts, LibDems £47bn cuts : IFS

@faisalislam IFS: Of those cuts, Cons manifesto only outlines 18% of nec cuts (£52bn unexplained), Lab only 13% (£44bn unexpln), LibD 26% (£35bn unexpln)

@faisalislam No more tax rises?? Lab needs further £7bn by 2016/17 ... Con needs further £3bn (reimposing half the NI move) ... LibD dont need more rises

@faisalislam Departmental limits will be cut on avg till 2015  Labour -- 3.1% real cuts per year ... LibDem: 2.8 per cent cuts .... Cons 4% cuts

@faisalislam Cons will have to cut one pound in every five of their 'unprotected' spending, LibD 1/11 pounds, Lab 1 in 5 if 4 yrs health/schools protn

@faisalislam IFS:  Conservatives will have biggest public sector cuts since Second World War

@faisalislam IFS: Labour and Liberal Democrats will have biggest public sector departmental cuts since IMF in 1976

A CONSERVATIVE activist charged with trying to rig the voting system in the last general election has been campaigning with shadow cabinet ministers to help the party win a key marginal seat.

Jamshed Khan resigned from the Conservative party after police launched an investigation into vote rigging, but is now back campaigning for the party in the Bradford West constituency.

Khan, 65, from Bradford, West Yorkshire, along with three other defendants, faces a charge of conspiracy to defraud the electoral registration officer. They all deny the charge and are due to appear at Leeds crown court in June.

Sky News displays the strongest political bias of any major UK news broadcaster, according to a survey conducted by TheMediaBlog.co.uk, the full results of which will be published later this week.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents (64 per cent) said Sky News displays a clear pro-Conservative bias in its reporting. In total, 34.5 per cent of respondents said Sky News displays a "strong Conservative" bias, while 29.3 said the channel shows "some Conservative" bias. One per cent of respondents thought Sky News displays a pro-Liberal Democrat bias, there was zero suggestion of any support for Labour and only 9.1 per cent of respondents said Sky News shows no overall bias.

The second strongest bias, indentified by the survey of 1,054 respondents, was on ITV News - also believed to be pro-Conservative.

In total, 11.3 per cent said ITV shows a "strong Conservative" bias and 17.5 said it shows "some Conservative" bias. However, the bias was less clear-cut as 6.2 per cent of respondents said they believe ITV is actually pro-Lib Dem. The channel also fared better than Sky with the 28.9 per cent of respondents who said it shows no overall bias, and nearly a third (32 per cent) saying they are unsure. 

Channel 4 and the BBC meanwhile were well ahead - seen as being largely impartial on balace.

Ukip answers questions about its science policy | General Election 2010 | Science | guardian.co.uk

Should Britain be at the forefront of research in these areas? What benefits do you believe such research will bring for society?

Wherever stem cells can be obtained by means other than the killing of very small children, it is ethical only to obtain the stem cells by means that do not involve the loss of little lives. On this basis, there is no reason why Britain should not play a leading part in stem cell research.

Voters in parts of Essex will see a line on their ballot papers enabling them to vote for "None Of The Above".

But it is NOT a new official way of abstaining - it is the new name of the ex-boxer formerly known as Terry Marsh.

He has changed his name by deed poll to "None Of The Above X", and is standing as a parliamentary candidate in South Basildon and East Thurrock.

Electoral law bans parties from using the name, but not individuals.

Labour calls in director of 24 for TV broadcast - Channel 4 News

The Hollywood director who made the hit TV series 24 is to take charge of Labour's next party election broadcast in an effort to revive their campaign.

Labour is getting help from Jack Bauer.

For its latest party election broadcast it has recruited Stephen Hopkins, the director of the hit TV series 24.

Cancer may be a party political frontline in election campaigns, but it appears that Conservative strategists are keen for the party to keep some distance from the specialists, scientists and campaigners involved with some of the countries biggest charities.

E-mails advising Conservative MPs and parliamentary candidates not to sign up to awareness campaigns run by charities including Cancer Research UK, Macmillan and Breast Cancer Campaign have been sent out. The ready-made responses - to be forwarded on by the MPs and candidates - were distributed to party members by the Conservatives' parliamentary resources unit (PRU), with the advisory: "Important note for members: Please do not sign up to this campaign."

So busy were the Liberal Democrats as the train pulled in to the station en route to Southampton, that they failed to spot this great photo opportunity.

If Nick Clegg thought he'd moved on from being asked if he wanted to be Prime Minister, Sky News cameraman Neil Morris wasn't about to let everyone forget the big hung parliament conundrum - who will Mr Clegg crown as Prime Minister.

if you really fancy the pain

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

What the Lib Dems really think about children and pornography - Telegraph Blogs

Do you know where your 16 year-old is? If the Lib Dems get into power, your son or daughter could be starring in a porn film. Yes, that's right: the party of nice Mr Clegg is actually the party of choice for dirty old men. It seems anyone over 16 should be allowed to watch "Naughty Nurses' Lesbo Love", and even act in it.

Gordon Brown committed a major election gaffe today by describing an elderly voter as a "bigot".

Gordon Brown committed a major election gaffe today by describing an elderly voter as a "bigot".

After having a discussion with the life-long Labour voter Gillian Duffy in the street, Brown then got into his car to say: "You should never have put me with that woman. Whose idea was that? Sue's I think.

"Everything she said - she's just a bigoted woman."

I thought Private Eye wouldn't be able to resist spoofing the way the Tory press has gone gunning for Nick Clegg. It doesn't disappoint today.
Can you spot the difference with the real thing

The leader of the UK Independence Party has backed Kettering's Conservative candidate and urged UKIP voters to vote for him. Lord Pearson praised Philip Hollobone's 'brave' views on Europe, immigration and banning the burkha and promised UKIP members would campaign for his election.

Independent - Matthew Norman - Will Blinky consign Labour to history?

Cocky, fake, slimy, inelegant, ineloquent, charmless, witless, weird, sinister, glacially cold and luminescently remote, he may be the most chillingly repulsive politician of even this golden generation. If Pixar set out to create a CGI character to embody everything the public has learned to despise about its political class, they'd be thrilled to come up with this lizardy schemer, who may have slipped through a tear in the fabric of space-time himself. Certainly he seems best suited to skulking beneath stone archways, in a purple robe, sibilantly sidling poison into the bloodstream of the medieval Vatican.

For a decade and more, this greyest of eminences has stirred, fixed, briefed and bullied, first to remove Mr Tony Blair; and latterly in the cause - keeping his master in power - that has pushed his party to the edge of the abyss. If he has a political philosophy, it is the domineering, top-down, we-know-best, infantilising statism of Gordon himself, but it's not really about that. For Mr Balls, it is football thug tribalism - a with-us-or-against-us Manichean sensibility next to which Mrs Thatcher seems a proto-Cleggian champion of consensus.