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by ThatBritGuy Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:11:59 PM EST
Spillover...
Looking like a hung parliament I think. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
But it's looking better than I was expecting a couple of hours ago.
But I'm 290 seats bid 310 seats offered for the Tories, I think....
The key point to me is if Labour and Lib Dem between them reach a majority (326) of seats and also a majority of the popular vote.
If they get both, then I reckon Brown might just cut a deal with Clegg.
Moreover, he'll do it quickly - maybe even tonight and tomorrow - before the Tories can parachute in and do what Salmond did in Scotland by trumpeting the 'win' all over the Press.
He could even square the SNP and Plaid Cymru if necessary by giving them the Scottish and Welsh Secretary jobs....
Interesting times. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
In Scotland and Wales you can pretty much forget the Tories.
I'm afraid not for Wales. We didn't have any Conservative MPs and now 3 are in at least.
Really, you think that the SNP will be bought off that easy? I'm thinking at this point that the push to have a referendum on Scottish independence is going to be strong....
For the Lib Dems to partner with anyone, the question is going to be one of proportional representation.
This should be fun.
How many ways can you cut Britain up? And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
I reckon he cut a deal with the Lib Dems very recently - before Monday - and if they jointly get a plurality of votes and seats he'll resign as party leader and hand over as PM to Clegg, with a guarantee for PR.
It's an offer Clegg can't refuse, and it's an offer his Labour troops can't refuse either.
If it happens, it'll happen quick, before the Tories can mobilise.
Time for a Change, indeed. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
But I'm not convinced that NuLab could make it stick for long.
Is Brown that street-smart?
Would the various Labour Powers-That-Be go for it? She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
It'll be interesting to see which works better. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
The Lib/Dems don't seem to be breaking through in their Tory marginals. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
I never quite appreciated this before. Of course, voters are nervous.
80 - LAB 77 - CON 9 - Lib Dem 22 - Other
According to the BBC. "It Can't Be Just About Us"--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
"Nobody could've...." ;) Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Ignore me. I'm usually in bed two hours earlier than now, so if I go crazy in the next couple hours, you've all been warned. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
But what happened to the LD vote? Where is it?
No one believed the exit poll, but it's looking more and more like it was spot on again.
But a win for Murdoch and the gutter press, as usual.
Ironically, the only guy who seems to be getting above expectations in this election is Gordon Brown. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Nice to see all the usual serious talking points being laid out about deficits and cuts.
Walks towards the bedroom, turns to stick her tongue out at me, goes in, and closes the door.
I mean...just, what the fuck? Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Why doesn't the BBC get Satan for its next election special - it couldn't possibly make the coverage any more obviously biased.
I do get the sense that the talking heads sense all is not well for the Torytubbies. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Cameron will hang around if only because he's their only hope of forming a government. Afterwards, I don't think much of his chances. The bottom line is they had a massive lead only 2 months ago and now they're scrambling to cobble a minority or coalition governing majority.
While I admit total ignorance about the internals of the Lib/Dems it must be observed Clegg did them proud during the debate. It's not his fault they couldn't seal the deal. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
@Charonqc I've just been talking to a mate of mine... Hugh Bris.... he thinks there could be three leaders resigning tomorrow.... true story!
Impossible to sack Cameron, he just picked up a massive number of seats.
I'd think the LD's 'd be unlikely to sack Clegg, he's only lost big relative to hopes that were raised after his first few weeks of campaigning. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
The question for Labour is who takes Gordo's place.
Brown looked 10 years younger at the count. He's outta here. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Steve Bell on the results of the general election
Doesn't look like it's happening for Lord Photoshop. A consistent swing would have done it, but when it's patchy like this - pffft.
Simon Hart Conservative 16,649 41.1% +9.8 Nick Ainger Labour 13,226 32.7% -4.0
'Night, guys. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Her replacement looks like a nasty piece of work.
Looking like a minority Conservative government. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Labour held Hammersmith. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Conservatives: 306 seats Labour: 262 Lib/Dem: 55 Misc: 27 She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Fun spots:
Cameron parachuted in some black and/or female and/or working class Tory candidates, very likely for show. They lost.
Cameron couldn't win a majority against one of the least popular PMs in recent history, after the expenses scandal, bigotgate, massive spending on marginals, support from Murdoch and the gutter MSM, and last year's econo-meltdown and banking crisis.
The markets expected a clear Tory win. They were wrong.
But... Clegg could still put the knife in by siding with Cameron. I wouldn't be completely surprised if he did that.
Gordon Brown has had a few weeks to get used to losing and a year before that to get used to the idea of fucking Cameron in charge. I'm sure it makes his skin crawl as much as it does everyone else's. There is joy in being a kingmaker and surprisingly he has this one last shot at it.
The Tories all by themselves: 14 short.
Brown has first shot at forming a government and then it's up to Cameron -- if I understand the process correctly.
Tory + Lib/Dem is a solid majority.
Tory + a miscellaneous gaggle is on sufferance.
shrug
Clegg's price should be the Tories passing PR?
But I'm no British Parliament tactician. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Tories are 18 short. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
If the LibDems learn anything from tonight's results it is that Labour is not as weak as everyone though three weeks ago. There is loyalty within the ranks and they are still viewed as the legitimate opposition to the Tories. LibDems didn't show any sign of taking their place in that equation tonight.
Brown is ruined and so are some of the other faces of NewLab that won't be missed. The UK voted for part of the Labour platform. A coalition needs to determine which parts of that platform can move forward and which ones cannot. Does anybody seriously believe that Cameron will negotiate anything? Any coalition partner will either be run over or shown to have made an egregious error three months later when they have to collapse the coalition.
Labour won enough votes tonight to avoid the appearance of illegitimacy provided that Gordon Brown is no longer PM.
And a large majority of the UK, in the popular vote, chose to vote for someone other than the Tories. This argument depends on support for PR, which Labour is already going public with.
Clegg + Brown - old and smelly. Clegg + Cameron - Clegg loses around half his supporters and not a few of his MPs overnight. Cameron + Brown - just no. A.N.Other + Clegg + PR - Clegg might go for this as a caretaker government while another election with PR is set up. It would give ANOther a change to establish themselves.
Brown is Labour's biggest liability, so a fresh face might swing things in an interesting direction.
But I still worry about Clegg + Cameron, and some pious self-serving nonsense about a government of stability in these difficult times, etc.
The only thing the Tories can offer the Lib/Dems is PR. Which would, most likely, split the Tories.
Clegg can offer to 'help' the Tories but not formally enter into some kind of informal pact/alliance/whatever which is the smart move? He can do all kinds of "In these difficult times & etc. etc. blah-blah" while working to get PR through the Commons. Actually becoming part of the government would be, I think, a mistake.
Which implies a Tory minority government and another election in a year or so. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
But if I were Brown I'd impose a proviso that they would be replaced by someone from whichever party leads the Scottish government so if in 2011 Scotland reverts to Labour, then Labour would take back the Cabinet post. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
That's the elephant in the room few people seem to be talking about.
Cameron blew it. No escaping the fact. He's shy of 326 seats - predicted, god knows how it will all end - and without the Lib/Dems it's hard (for me) to see how he forms a stable government. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
They succeeded in that and now have the kingmaker role. The UK has a situation where the current government has been partially defeated yet no other suitable victor has been established. This means that the defeated party in power will draw up the terms of the armistice.
Portions of the Labour platform won tonight. I believe PR has also won. What have the Tories won, exactly? Their racist wing didn't get them over the top and everybody else is loathe to work with them. Plus, the popular vote totals do not reflect a great desire for a Tory government.
No way Conservatives and Labour form a 'National Unity' government, thus Labour can't play kingmaker. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
With all of them in together they are a clear popular majority.
This will be the first real coalition government you've seen in the UK, with everybody having to work together (except the Tories, who of course would never do such a thing) to get anything done.
Will Labour give in to PR? Maybe.
Something to consider about the LibDems is their constituency. After introduction of PR what distinguishes them? I suspect they are like a bee that will quickly die after using their stinger. In a PR scenario, Labour is not necessarily condemned to a minority future. Unless you think most of the LibDem voters will somehow go Tory. If they were to do such a thing they would have all done it tonight.
From the BBC:
Man, what a Tory sweep in South East England minus London.
Tory 36% 272 (+86) Labour 29% 227 (-79) Lib Dem 23% 48 (-7) SNP 6 (-) Plaid 3 (+1) Other 18 (-1)
Swing: 5.2% Lab to Con. The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
From this side of the Atlantic it's all been quite amusing. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
Joys of the electoral system and strategic voting...
England Con 9,383,859 282 33.28 Lab 6,679,336 181 36.90 LD 5,689,278 38 149.72 Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
The BBC projection suggests David Cameron's Conservatives will have 306 seats. If there are 10 Unionists elected in Northern Ireland then Mr Cameron might be able to command 316 - probably still slightly too few for him to be sure of winning a Queen's Speech. But Labour and the Lib Dems together would have 317 seats, according to the BBC figures, which even with three SDLP MPs would still leave them at 320 - again probably just a few votes short. ... With most results in, the Lib Dem vote is up 0.9% on 2005, Labour down 6.5% and the Conservatives up 4%.
But Labour and the Lib Dems together would have 317 seats, according to the BBC figures, which even with three SDLP MPs would still leave them at 320 - again probably just a few votes short.
...
With most results in, the Lib Dem vote is up 0.9% on 2005, Labour down 6.5% and the Conservatives up 4%.
UK CON 36.1% LAB 29.2% LD 22.9% Others 11.8% England CON 39.7% LAB 28.2% LD 24.1% UKIP 3.4% London CON 36.0% LAB 35.7% LD 22.0% UKIP 1.9% Wales CON 26.1% LAB 36.2% LD 20.1% PC 11.3% Scotland CON 16.6% LAB 42.4% LD 18.6% SNP 19.9% N Ireland DUP 26.8% SDLP 17.1% SF 24.0% UCU 16.3%
Night all. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Because Labour has lost, doesn't mean Cons have won. No rash decisions. Being pressed very hard to declare what Lib Dems will do, but not giving way.
Tories don't have the right to assume a majority and "ram through" their manifesto.
A new Conservative Government's antennae need to be on alert from day one for the 'evidence based' and 'what works' justifications for Brown's bloated state and overreaching policies. For these cliches are symptoms of 'scientism': the belief that science, and science alone, can deal with every aspect of human existence, described by Melanie Phillips this week. Evidence is over-rated, experience and reason underrated. These are the clues to the poisoned chalice of secular, morally unimpeachable thought that the Conservatives must avoid drinking from if they are to make real change.
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