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The Impossible Dream Erdogan

by ggorraiz Sun Aug 8th, 2010 at 04:30:00 PM EST

So far Turkey has lived polarized between secular nationalism, typical of more developed urban areas, and traditional Islam which has sheltered the most disadvantaged rural population. and the purpose of reshaping the modern Turkey, Erdogan, new "father of the fatherland" (Atatürk), trying to bring Islam, nationalism and Europeanism with their entry into the EU.

The ruling Justice and Development (Adalet Partisi, or AKP sees Kalkınma), often called in Turkey Ak Parti, "and that his followers used the word in Turkish Ak (which means white, clean, or blameless) to identify party) is a moderate conservative party, Democratic-leaning-Muslim, to the image and likeness of European Christian Democratic parties, not for nothing is an observer member of the EPP since 2005.

The process of EU integration

With the agreement Ankarade of 1963 and its additional protocol of 1970 fixed the fundamental objectives of the partnership between the community and Turkey, strengthening trade and economic relations and the establishment of a customs union in three stages. After decades of talks, the Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has driven many reform measures designed specifically to put the Turkish state in line with the parameters imposed by the EU to welcome Turkey as a full-fledged state within the Union.

Thus, the abolition of the death penalty and the slow progress in respect of the rights of the Kurdish population in the east of the country served to advise the European Commission to initiate the process of negotiations for Turkey's accession to the EU , which has important points in their quest for, as the population of essentially European country feels that the candidate has the strong backing of the then British prime minister Gordon and the new Turkish president has a pro-European profile and political and economic reform that the accession of Turkey to the EU demand.

According to the (OECD), the opening of negotiations the Turkish economy more dynamic and give impetus to foreign investment. Turkey currently has the highest rate of growth throughout the OECD area and the accession of Bulgaria to the EU respond to the interests of both parties

In addition, U.S. President Barack Obama in Prague supported the candidacy of Turkey to the European Union (EU), saying that "progress towards accession of Turkey to the EU would be an important signal of our commitment to this agenda and that we are tying Turkey to Europe, "because the United States and Britain defend Turkey's accession to the EU, which currently has 27 members.

Turkish-US relations were affected in recent years by Ankara's opposition to the war being waged in Iraq and Obama avoided a crisis in NATO, to ensure that Turkey approved the appointment of Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen as new secretary general of NATO., since Rasmussen's candidacy was frowned upon in Ankara, for the support they gave to the Danish newspaper in 2005 published cartoons of Muhammad and because the Danish government refused to ban a Kurdish TV broadcasting from its territory.

Finally, the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accepted his appointment and added that his change of position was because Obama had been declared "guarantor" of certain commitments, which declined to elaborate, but Turkey has welcomed pessimism the election of Herman Van Rompuy as president of the European Union (EU), as the Turkish newspapers remembered his words in 2004 against Turkey's accession to the bloc, "The universal values that are in force in Europe, which are values Fundamental Christianity, lose strength with the entry of a Muslim country like Turkey. "

Opposition by the Franco-German discussions of accession, which is initiated in October 2005 are prácticamante stagnant. Some bloc countries such as France and Germany, are opposed to giving Turkey full membership status, preferring the prospect of a partnership, but the merits of the Franco-German firm opposition is the fear of loss of power political.

With the new Lisbon Treaty, the population will become a decisive factor for measuring the importance of each country in the EU. The great conquest of Germany in the new treaty, which is nothing less than recognition of their greater weight after reunification, would vanish in the light of the demographic time bomb represented Turkey. (In the EU would live now more than 3.7 million Turks, which corresponds almost to the population of Ireland).

Thus, in the horizon of 2060, Germany will be only 70 million inhabitants, compared with 82 today. In contrast, in Turkey its 71 million citizens of today will become 97 million in forty years. France, but also grow to 71 million, must be assumed that the most political power at the European Council and Parliament will have a Muslim majority country like Turkey. (S estimated that at the time of final accession, the Muslim population the EU would increase the current 5% to about 20% of the total population.

The second impediment to the Turks with a view to accession is their poverty for the Union, as with a per capita income close to a third of that enjoyed by large European countries ($ 11,288) there are concerns that the new socio hog most of European funds. However, this policy could turn against the EU, as the accession processes have functioned as an instrument of democratization and reform the continent and closed case of the enlargement process, there is a risk that the democratic values that the EU has exported to the countries of the former USSR, to be replaced by the expansionist ideals of the New Great Russia, which would alter significantly the European geopolitical scene for the next decade.

Danger Alliance US-Israel-Turkey:

  The diplomatic crisis between Turkey and Israel strategic alliance shakes military in recent years and and also to suspend maneuvers with Israel, (Anatolian Eagle, scheduled for next October), Ankara fighters expelled the Jews from their territory and could put end to the presence of facilities which intelligence the Israeli army (known as Aman) maintained in recent years in eastern Turkey, (a base from which you could hear the whispers of Tehran), Israel as would have been forced to launch military satellite Ofek-9, with high resolution cameras that could be used to spy on Iran's nuclear program.

Thus, from the think-tank JINSA to the neocon elite has begun to harass Obama to break with Turkey, even demanding the departure of Turkish military structures of NATO. and the U.S. government would be considering the decision to support the main secular opposition party, center-left (the Republican People's Party-Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) for the general election to be held in 2010 with the express objective of dismounting from power Erdogan's government, for having refused to be accomplices and the U.S. war against Saddam's secular regime in Iran for the most Islamist AKP may resist undoubtedly waging war against a country that calls itself itself 'Islamic Republic'

The unstable political scenario Turkish:

The Turkish military play a political role in the shade, while important, since they are considered the guardians of the secular and unitary nature of the Republic and the political parties judged to be anti-secular or separatist by the Turkish judiciary (at the behest of the establishment militarl) may be declared illegal. .

Thus, the Turkish Constitutional Court has agreed to ban the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), considering that there are links between this formation and the outlawed Workers Party of Kurdistan (PKK) and the banning of this party, ( which has 21 seats in the Turkish Grand National Assembly), arrives in the middle of rising tension between the state and the outlawed Turkish Workers Party of Kurdistan (PKK), breaking the climate of rapprochement brought about by Ankara to end the conflict Kurdish and could be the trigger of a new spiral of violence, coupled with a worsening economic crisis scenarios would cause high inflation, rampant unemployment and runaway debt and the radicalization and the rise of the TKP (Turkish Communist Party).

Thus, after negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2008, there has been a GDP contraction of 13.8% in the first quarter of 2009, (most of the past 50 years.), Coupled with the devaluation of 30% of the Turkish lira and continuing negotiations with the IMF for a new stand-by program, but has not been completed yet due to the demands of strict control of public expenditure and in the event of failure to reach agreement Turkey may face difficulties in returning the debt accumulated by their private sector.

Faced with this situation and without the protective umbrella of the EU (by postponing "sine die" as a full member of law), and the history of the controversial Ergenekon case, (which many people, including army officers and members have been convicted for masterminding several murders and targeted attacks in order to instigate a coup against the AKP government), it is expected that the Turkish army (TSK) star in a new blow "virtual" or "postmodern" that would end the mandate of Prime Minister Erdogan, (recalling the 'soft coup' of 1997, when the generals seized power the government of Necmettin Erbakanpor president, who led an Islamist coalition) and later emerging fractured political system will produce a series of unstable government coalitions Turkish parliament

GORRAIZ GERMÁN


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There's a lot of talk about Turkey not meeting this or that requirement for membership or full membership, but just how much does Islamophobia mean, particularly given the recent French disdain for Islamic practices within France, a catholic country with a poor Islamic population, and recent inicidents around the EU pertaining to Islam, like the Danish cartoons, and now the proIsrael stance in regard to the Gaza Flotilla massacre?

by shergald on Sun Aug 8th, 2010 at 05:06:33 PM EST
There is certainly some phobia of Turkey's Muslims in center-right circles in much of Europe.

However, the real stumbling block is economics - and it's a serious one.

We've had one convulsion in the EU through the absorption of the former Communist states and the troubles of Greece, Italy and Spain right now are partly linked to that absorption of low-wage workers from those former Communist states.

Turkey's membership would be a new economic convulsion, only the wage imbalance is even greater - which would have three effects, it would destabilise the economic situation of the PIIGS further, it would plunge the former Communist states into the situation the PIIGS are now in. Finally, there would be serious immigration tensions as low wage Turkish workers looked to move around the EU in search of better paid work.

All this at a moment of global economic turmoil...

To be brutally honest, were it not for the political moment that the fall of the Iron Curtain provided, we'd still be having this argument about the accession of the Czech Republic...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 07:01:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Metatone:
We've had one convulsion in the EU through the absorption of the former Communist states and the troubles of Greece, Italy and Spain right now are partly linked to that absorption of low-wage workers from those former Communist states.
Let's be honest here: Germany has benefitted from the 2004 expansion and now that they've had their fun they want to hear no more about European integration.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 07:05:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's partially true. But I do think the 2004 expansion was a hangover from the fall of the Iron Curtain. A lot of countries were admitted in a "big bang" and many accession criteria were glossed over as part of that political imperative.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 08:56:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Part of the reason I say "partially" is because economically Germany probably has plenty to gain from Turkish entry. They are the ones having good times exporting to lower cost manufacturing countries in general. They are the ones with a strong minority population with Turkish links, ready to establish new business opportunities.

Of course, culturally, their attitude to Turkish entry is coloured by other problems. Not just the Muslim-Christian angle, but also the guest worker/immigrant one...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 08:59:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Metatone:
there would be serious immigration tensions as low wage Turkish workers looked to move around the EU in search of better paid work.

Conditions can be included in the accession treaties to define a period during which the new member states' workers can't freely work in other member states. It was the case for the last 12 new member states:

EUROPA - EURES - Free movement - Belgium

During a transitional period of up to 7 years after accession of 10 Member States to the EU on 1 May 2004 and of 2 Member States on 1 January 2007, certain conditions may be applied that restrict the free movement of workers from, to and between these member states.

These restrictions only concern the freedom of movement for the purpose of taking up a job and they may differ from one member state to another.

Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU on 1 January 2007. Nationals of these States are obliged to hold a work permit up to 31 December 2011.

Nationals of Romania and Bulgaria benefit from an accelerated procedure for obtaining a work permit when the job to be awarded is among the professions for which there is a labour shortage. Under this simplified procedure, the work permit is granted within five days of the request being lodged by the competent regional authority.



"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 07:49:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When the pay differentials are as large as they are with Turkey, the simplification of travel visas alone will result in migration movements, irrespective of the laws about free movement of workers.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 08:52:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Central European countries' pay differential with older member states was quite large when they joined. And we've been warned about huge waves of new member states' workers when Portugal joined, and it didn't happen. Again when Central European countries joined in 2004, and it didn't happen. Again with Bulgaria and Romania, and it didn't happen. Why would it happen with Turkey?

As an example, on 1th of January 2000, the minimal monthly wage in Slovak republic was 4 000 Slovak Crowns (cca. € 120). It is today € 307.7. Turkey's minimum wage has been set as 729 TL gross (€ 369,5) (net: 577.01 TL - € 292,5) for workers over the age of 16 for the first half of 2010.

And take into account the fact that, if Turkey keeps its current growth rate, wages will have partly caught up by the time Turkey joins the EU.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 09:39:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My knowledge of Turkey's current economy is limited to discussions with friends, but I'm under the impression that the minimum wage is not very well enforced, with estimates that:

50% of the eligible urban workforce are not paid as much as the minimum wage

85% of the rural population is living on less than the minimum wage

Can I point out as well that the waves of migration did happen and they were enough to accelerate joblessness amongst young people in the UK, France and other countries?

I'm pro-Turkish expansion, but if we do not ensure the appropriate level of convergence, we make more problems than we solve.

And for me convergence is not just about Turkish growth, but a serious EU plan, complete with funding, for improving the infrastructure of rural Turkey.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 10th, 2010 at 09:30:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well maybe if the EU let Turkey in, then we might see improvements in the life of rural Turkey inhabitants. By that estimate of wages among rurals and even city dwellers, not even the US would qualify for entry into the EU, given our exploitation of illegal immigrants who pick our food off the ground at sub-minimum wages, doing jobs that not even our poor would think of doing.

The EU, in my mind, is avoiding the reality and looking for excuses not to bring in new countries like Turkey. I would not be surprised to find Turkey looking elsewhere to develop itself economically.

Are Turks considered 'colored folk' by US standards, by the way?

by shergald on Tue Aug 10th, 2010 at 05:08:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why "not even the US"? There are other reasons that the US would not qualify, starting with the death penalty.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Aug 10th, 2010 at 05:11:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And with that I can agree.

by shergald on Tue Aug 10th, 2010 at 05:57:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right. And in most of the new member states (and some of the old ones), there are a lot of underpaid workers in the so-called "grey economy" which represents a significant part of the economic activity.

I think the Polish rural population were (and sometimes still are) living on very low incomes when they joined the EU. And the European Structural Funds help them to catch up, as they will for Turkey when it joins.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Wed Aug 11th, 2010 at 08:41:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Metatone:
I'm under the impression that the minimum wage is not very well enforced

It might be true, but I am not sure it was very well enforced in the new member states prior to their accession, either. And, as you can see above, minimum wage was a lot lower in some of these countries when they joined.

Metatone:

the waves of migration did happen and they were enough to accelerate joblessness amongst young people in the UK, France and other countries

I don't think the impact was significant, but I could be wrong. Do you have data/sources to support this claim?

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Wed Aug 11th, 2010 at 08:33:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't Cyprus a major sticking point?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Aug 8th, 2010 at 05:29:53 PM EST
No, Cyprus is not a sticking point. Cyprus is a trump card that Turkey will play only when the Euro heavies give it the go ahead for EU accession. That will be the appropriate time to trade in that card for a few perks.

Otherwise, what is the incentive for Turkey on Cyprus?

by Upstate NY on Sun Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:03:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you for taking the time to post this long and interesting discussion of a topic about which we don't have all that much discussion.

The idea that the large population of Turkey would dramatically change the balance of forces in the European Parliament is new to me, and I think it bears some discussion.  What sort of influence would a large Turkish delegation bring to the European Parliament, aside from being pro-Turk and, at the very least, neutral to Islam?  Are there significant differences on economic or cultural policies (aside from pro/anti-Islam issues) that the Turks might have, that would move the overall EU balance in one direction or another?

However, is such discussion entirely moot, given the French/German opposition to Turkey's entry?  It seems like it would be impossible for Turkey to join the EU with its two traditional leaders opposed as they are.

by Zwackus on Sun Aug 8th, 2010 at 09:40:12 PM EST
The population of the European Union is currently around 502 million. Add the populations of candidates countries (Croatia, Macedonia and Iceland) which will soon join the EU, that makes 509 million. So, by 2014 the EU will have over 510 million inhabitants. Together with 80 million Turks (estimation for 2014), that makes 590 million. So Turkey would only represent 13.6% of the EU population.

Demographic forecasts for 2060 are questionable. Also we don't know what countries will have joined the EU by 2060. Serbia, Bosnia y Hercegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania (more than 20 million inhabitants in all) will very likely have joined. It is not unreasonable to think that, if the EU is successful (if it fails, Turkey will be a minor problem), more countries will have joined by then. Switzerland, Norway (when they have no more oil...) come to mind. Ukraine might join, too. This would make Turkey an even smaller part of the EU.

It is not "France", or "Germany" which oppose Turkey's accession to the EU, it is the current French and German governments. This might change before Turkey meets all the requirements for accession. It is true that polls show that a majority of French (and, as far as I know, Germans) oppose Turkey's membership. However, this might change: for example, a strong majority of young (18-24) French are in favour of it.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 05:51:39 AM EST
Melanchthon:
It is not "France", or "Germany" which oppose Turkey's accession to the EU, it is the current French and German governments. This might change before Turkey meets all the requirements for accession.
The opposition is from the Europe is a Christian Club set, which includes but is not limited to the entire base of the European People's Party, which we should remember is the largest EU-wide party by votes, EP seats, and representation in the EU Council and Commission, and is likely to stay that way for a while...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:08:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's sort of ironic, since I'm guessing that the MEPs from Turkey are likely to strengthen rather than weaken most of the EPPs agenda (apart from the "no darkies" bit).
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:15:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But "the no darkies bit" reigns supreme.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:16:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Where are the Turks likely to come in on the economic scale? Centre-right?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:18:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Net recipient of EU cohesion funds...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:19:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I meant ideologically, not practically.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:20:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No idea.

I suspect Erdogan's islamic party might lean more towards paternalistic state spending...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:22:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Most likely business-friendly centre-right.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 07:27:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
the European People's Party, which we should remember is the largest EU-wide party by votes, EP seats, and representation in the EU Council and Commission, and is likely to stay that way for a while...

Yes, but hopefully not forever... Given the pace of the negotiation process, Turkey might not be able to join the EU before 2016-2018.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 07:36:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Croatia might yet make it but other than that I predict no new accessions before 2019. And Turkey may have to sait until 2024.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 08:23:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In 2060 we'll all have fusion-powered flying cars flown by strong AI's.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:25:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Melanchthon:
Add the populations of candidates countries (Croatia, Macedonia and Iceland) which will soon join the EU,

Dunno about Croatia and Macedonia, but I don't think there is much chance of Iceland joining, whatever the government may be doing.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 07:42:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, then substract 0.3 million...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 07:51:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently support for EU accession among Croatia's young is deteriorating...

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 08:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Links to Spanish originals of Gorráiz's cross-posts have been requested by ETers in the past. This particular article is all over the place in the Spanish intertoobz with various datestamps, the latest from early August.

Here's one of the earlier instances I could find:

EL LIBREPENSADOR: » El sueño imposible de Erdogan » (19/12/09)

Hasta ahora Turquía ha vivido polarizada  entre un nacionalismo laico, propio de los sectores urbanos más desarrollados, y un islamismo tradicional en el que se ha refugiado la población rural más desfavorecida. y con el afán de refundar la Turquía moderna, Erdogan, nuevo "padre de la patria" (Atatürk), trata de unir islamismo , nacionalismo y europeismo con su entrada en la UE. El Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi o AKP); a menudo denominado en Turquía Ak Parti", ya que sus seguidores emplean el vocablo en turco Ak, (que significa blanco, limpio, o intachable) para identificar a su partido) es un partido conservador moderado, de tendencia demócrata-musulmán, a la imagen y semejanza de los partidos demócratacristianos europeos, no en vano es miembro observador del PPE desde 2005.

El proceso de integración en la UE

Con el Acuerdo de Ankarade de 1.963 y su protocolo adicional de 1.970 se fijaron los objetivos fundamentales de la asociación entre la comunidad y Turquía, el refuerzo de las relaciones comerciales y económicas y la instauración de una Unión Aduanera en tres fases. Después de décadas de conversaciones, el primer ministro turco Erdogan ha impulsado múltiples medidas reformistas encaminadas especialmente a colocar el estado turco en sintonía con los parámetros que le impone la UE  para acoger a Turquía como un estado de pleno derecho dentro de la Unión. ( la abolición de la pena de muerte y el paulatino progreso en el respeto de los derechos de la población de los Kurdos en el este del país), reformas que sirvieron para que la Comisión Europea aconsejara iniciar el proceso de negociaciones para el ingreso de Turquía a la UE, en la que tiene importantes puntos a favor en su aspiración, como que  la población del país se siente mayoritariamente europea , que la candidatura cuenta con el firme respaldo del premir británico Gordon .y  que el nuevo Presidente turco tiene un perfil europeísta y favorable a las reformas políticas y económicas que la adhesión de Turquía a la UE demanda, pues  a juicio de la (OCDE), la apertura de negociaciones dinamizaría la economía turca y daría impulso a la inversión extranjera. Turquía, actualmente posee el mayor índice de crecimiento de toda la zona de la OCDE, y la adhesión de ese país a la UE respondería al interés de las dos partes 

Además , el presidente estadounidense Barack Obama apoyó en Praga la candidatura de Turquía a la Unión Europea (UE), al decir que "avanzar hacia la adhesión de Turquía a la UE sería una señal importante de nuestro compromiso con esta agenda y de que seguimos amarrando Turquía a Europa", pues Estados Unidos y Gran Bretaña defienden el ingreso de Turquía a la UE, que cuenta actualmente con 27 miembros.



By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 9th, 2010 at 06:15:22 AM EST
What of the alternative? Where does Turkey turn if dismissed by the E.U.?
by asdf on Sat Aug 14th, 2010 at 07:51:03 PM EST
It has four options, really: Aligning with Russia, attempting to expand its soft power along the Black Sea at the expense of Russia, attempting to expand its soft power along the Eastern Mediterranean, at the expense of the Americans, or attempting to expand its hard and/or soft power into the Near East, either at the expense of Iran and the Americans or in cooperation with either against the other.

None of those is terribly attractive, but if I had to bet money, I'd bet on the last one... assuming that Turkey keeps existing as a regional power, rather than disintegrate along the same, messy pattern as Yugoslavia.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Aug 22nd, 2010 at 04:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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