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A Great Achievement in Central Banking (II)

by Carrie Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:26:27 AM EST

Two weeks ago

EUROPEAN Central Bank council member Jens Weidmann said the ECB cannot bail out governments by printing money.

"One of the severest forms of monetary policy being roped in for fiscal purposes is monetary financing, in colloquial terms also known as the financing of public debt via the money printing press," Weidmann, who heads Germany’s Bundesbank, said in a speech in Berlin yesterday.

The prohibition of monetary financing in the euro area "is one of the most important achievements in central banking" and "specifically for Germany, it is also a key lesson from the experience of hyperinflation after World War I," he said.

Today: German 10-year bond auction a 'disaster'
One of Germany's worst bond sales since the launch of the euro prompted concerns the debt crisis was even beginning to threaten Berlin on Wednesday, with the Bundesbank forced to buy large amounts of the bonds to ensure the auction did not fail.

The low yields offered on the 10-year paper deterred investors from the auction, especially because of growing concerns over the cost to Germany of the escalating crisis.

That meant the central bank had to pick up 39 percent of the 6 billion euros of debt Germany had hoped to sell to investors after banks bought just 3.644 billion euros of the issue.

Again congratulations are due.


Display:
It's ok, they're going to sell them on secondary markets. No problem.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:27:57 AM EST
Seriously, they couldn't just arrange behind the scenes with some German bank that the private bank would buy the bonds today and sell them to the BuBa in the secondary market tomorrow?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:34:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe this had something to do with it?
ECB has introduced an upper limit of €20bn per week for SMP interventions

According to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the ECB governing council has introduced an upper limit of €20bn the central bank can spend per week to help ailing euro countries to stabilize the spreads on their government bonds. This move is interesting in the sense that the market expectations are that with the arrival of Mario Draghi and the intensification of the crisis the ECB would go the other way and loosen its limits of the program. The paper, however, argues that there is a growing scepticism among the governing council's members about the program which has resulted in lowering the weekly ceiling from a previously higher figure to €20bn. According to FAZ discusses at each of its bimonthly meetings the SMP and sets a ceiling for the coming two weeks. Whether the €20bn ceiling was maintained at yesterday's governing council meeting is unclear. According to the ECB's official SMP figures it spend only €4.5bn last week, much less than the markets had expected.

If you only allow yourself to buy €20bn a week in French and Spanish and Italian and Austrian and Belgian bonds at distressed rates, and the BuBa goes and buys €2.4bn of Bunds at rock-bottom yields, there might have been a problem.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:41:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a transparent breach of the Treaty on the Funcioning of the European Union:
Article 123
(ex Article 101 TEC)

  1. Overdraft facilities or any other type of credit facility with the European Central Bank or with the central banks of the Member States (hereinafter referred to as `national central banks') in favour of Union institutions, bodies, offices or agencies, central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of Member States shall be prohibited, as shall the purchase directly from them by the European Central Bank or national central banks of debt instruments.

  2. Paragraph 1 shall not apply to publicly owned credit institutions which, in the context of the supply of reserves by central banks, shall be given the same treatment by national central banks and the European Central Bank as private credit institutions.
(my bold)

I believe there are no "notwithstandings" or "without prejudices" in this article...

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:30:53 AM EST
You have an opinion? Brown people are not here to give opinions...

Go back to the mud pit.

by cagatacos on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:16:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On a less sarcastic tone: It would be wise if people prepare for a major event soon, I would say... This fanatical neo-liberal religion that has stuck to the EU power elites with its dog-eat-dog mentality and destruction of the public space is completely unsustainable (not only in the long run, the whole edifice seems be ready to crumble now)
by cagatacos on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:48:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Posted this comment on FAZ, to Holger Stelzner's editorial, (comments here). It seems to be going through moderation.

Why is the Bundesbank allowed to buy German 10-year bonds directly (today's auction, 39% of the offering), in flagrant contradiction with Article 123 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union? Direct purchase of government debt instruments by the ECB or national central banks is prohibited by that article. Is there one law for Germany and another for the rest of Europe?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:55:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is, perhaps, the moment when Merkel "gets it".

We're in a crisis of confidence. Germany, the self-defined best economy in the world, is under attack by the markets, despite its self-evident virtue.

Let us join hands and pray for one of her historic flip-flops.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:38:59 AM EST
Some German nutty Professor of Constitutional Law should probably sue Jens Weidmann, just for kicks.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:42:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nope.

She'll double down.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:43:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Flawed Role Model: Germany's Finances Not as Sound as Believed - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

it is debatable how much longer Germany can be seen as a refuge of stability and security. In reality, German government finances are not nearly in as good shape as the chancellor and the finance minister would have us believe. The way that certain important indices are developing suggests that Germany may not retain its position as a role model in the long term. Government debt as a percentage of GDP is already at more than 80 percent, which compared to other European Union countries is by no means exemplary, but in fact average at best.

When it comes to their debt-to-GDP ratios, even ailing countries like Spain are in better shape, with values significantly lower than 80 percent. Critics, irritated by Merkel's and Schäuble's overly confident rhetoric, are beginning to find fault with Europe's self-proclaimed model country. "I think that the level of German debt is troubling," says Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, whose country has a debt-to-GDP ratio of just 20 percent.

Despite the nascent criticism, Merkel and Schäuble will be patting themselves on the back once again at this week's final debate on the 2012 federal budget in the Bundestag, the German parliament. They will point out that Germany is in much better shape than its partners in the euro zone, not to mention the United States. They will also praise conditions in the labor market, rising tax revenues and the declining budget deficit.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:41:51 AM EST
Flawed Role Model: Germany's Finances Not as Sound as Believed - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Jens Weidmann, the president of Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, warns that the tax cuts at least will have to be offset elsewhere in the budget. "Germany mustn't lose any time in balancing its budget," he says.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:46:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Uh... isn't inflation the mandate for the Buba? Monetary policy, not fiscal? You would never hear talk like this from the Riksbank.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 12:28:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well
... the ECB is already so far down the road of telling governments what to do and what not to do in the fiscal and structural reform domains, that one is hardly surprised by yet another lecture on budgetary policy from the Eurotower.  Traditionally, continental European central bankers speak very little about monetary policy in public, and are often unwilling to engage in public debate or answer questions about their monetary duties, but carry on endlessly about budgetary and structural reform matters.  It's always easier to speak about things you have no responsibility for, that are not part of your mandate and about which you probably don't know very much.
Weidmann belongs to a proud tradition of Continental Central Banking.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 12:30:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See Bundesbank attacks Schäuble's lack of ambition in consolidating the German budget just yesterday.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:47:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Deficit is around 2% of gdp this year. I wouldn't tell this troubling. Only to people who are obsessed with public debt like the neolibs at spiegel.
by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:31:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't a deficit of 2% dangerously above the constitutional limit introduced by the merry band of idiots in the Bundestag in 2009?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:36:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This abitrary limit is not in force yet. And only neolib idiots like the spiegel worry that.
by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:51:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Clearly, 'the markets' disagree with you.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:19:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As does the Bundesbank.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:39:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The "markets" did think, 1.92% yield is to low. Since taht is below the infaltion rate, taht is not even unreasonable.

As far as I remember, tehre already there some failed  actzins bakc in late 2008. The debt agency bakc then said that this is just haggling over price. They there rigth. Back then.

The Bundesbank and public deficits is  a pathological relationship.

by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 10:17:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Speaking of the neolibs of SPIEGEL, the apparent insurrection within the editorial boards seems to be in attack mode in the past week:

  • Downthread afew quotes Flawed Role Model: Germany's Finances Not as Sound as Believed by Ralf Neukirch and Christian Reiermann. I frankly didn't expect this piece (from the current print issue) to be translated to English.

  • A few days earlier, the German-language Spiegel On-Line published a different version of the above article as a commentary under the byline of a different author (a new ex-FTD guy), which differs in being sharper. Already the title, which translates to "The Fairy Tale About The German World Champion In Saving". It also mentions Volker Kauder's "Europe now speaks German" comment and calls it chauvinistic, explicitly compares Germany's debt level with that of Spain, doesn't just mention Juncker's swipe but judges it correct, completely diverges in its argumentation by crediting Germany's good situation on deficit-boosting stimulus measures in 2009, and ends with:
    Die aktuelle Regierung dagegen macht mit ihren überheblichen Lobgesängen auf die deutsche Staatsdisziplin vieles kaputt in Europa. In Griechenland, Spanien oder Italien - wo die Deutschen für ihre Tugenden einst zumindest geschätzt wurden - werden sie nun vor allem als arrogante Zuchtmeister wahrgenommen, die den Menschen auf dem Rest des Kontinents erklären wollen, wie sie zu leben und zu arbeiten haben. Das kann auf Dauer nicht gutgehen.The current government, however, ruins a lot in Europe with its arrogant hymns of praise upon the German state discipline. In Greece, Spain or Italy - where once the Germans were at least valued for their virtues - they are now viewed primarily as arrogant taskmasters who want to tell the people on the rest of the continent how they have to live and work. This cannot go well on the longer run.

  • Two days ago, they published a guest commentary by the deputy chief editor of the Spiegel group's business magazine, which argues for allowing the ECB to act as lender of last resort and portrays the German government and central bank as being alone in their position in the world [which is unfortunately not entirely correct]. I found this most noteworthy because the author seems far from being free of neolib received wisdom (he says no central bank intervention is correct on the longer run), but recognises the short-term role in fighting the crisis. Also, he dismisses comparisons of the ECB to the pre-Euro Bundesbank on the basis of the different environment they operated in: federal Germany was a transfer union, and finance was not yet deregulated.

  • Yesterday, they published another guest commentary by Wolfgang Münchau, allowing him to call the two notions that the crisis is one of public finances (rather than private finances which became a problem for previously low-deficit/surplus countries too due to crisis mismanagement) and that Germany's pre-WWII main economic crisis was the hyperinflation of the twenties (rather than the ensuing depression of the thirties; also see comment by Metatone followed by debate between IM and afew) "old German lies".


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 04:11:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Reminds me of On the true agenda behind Der Spiegel's story that Greece is thinking of exiting the euro by Yanis Varoufakis six months ago
If I am right, who sent this message? Der Spiegel would never act by itself and without coordinating with powerful German policy makers. My sources tell me that these circles are mainly located within the German Finance Ministry and, to a lesser extent, in one or two of the larger banks. In association with Der Spiegel they have been sending tamer messages along similar lines for a while, namely that the Greek debt is not sustainable under the present policy mix (see FTAlphaville's account of that series of messages utilising Der Spiegel as the main conduit).

Having lost patience, once their signals were largely ignored, Germany's Finance Ministry's `people' must have decided to employ the big guns of yesterday's signal. They took a partial truth (that the Greek PM had looked at the potential costs of a Greek exit from the euro), amplified it by omitting to mention all the other scenaria which were considered and, hey presto, a small tempest was unleashed on Europe's leadership. All they then did was to watch the panic perform its miracle. What miracle? Concentrating the mind of Mrs Merkel, Mr Papandreou and assorted ministers on the importance of living, for once, in truth.

More precisely, the message sent by the Spiegel incendiary article was that the policy of fresh expensive loans for insolvent states, combined with savage austerity at a time of deep recession, does not and will not work. That the time for debt restructuring for the eurozone's stressed periphery has come, as has the time for a rational resolution of Europe's banking crisis. To drive their point home, the circles within Germany that saw to it that Spiegel publishes this article illustrated vividly, for Mrs Merkel's and Mr Papandreou's benefit, that there is something far, far worse than a debt restructure: the commencement of a successive elimination of countries from the eurozone that will give rise to magnificent levels of speculation in the money markets as to who comes next and when.



To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 04:37:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is indeed a connection to the first article from the print issue (editor Christian Reiermann). But the other three are op-eds with no new information at all, not articles leaking and spinning insider information as the work and agenda of the anonymous source, with Spiegel's neolibs as willing conduits.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 04:53:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW I wonder who plagiarised who between the op-ed by Stefan Kaiser (published in Spiegel On-Line on 17 November) and the article from two other authors (published in the Spiegel print issue on 21 November), seeing that the intro and several details are the same but the conclusion different.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 04:58:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Münchau's headline is: Es ist die Politik, Dummkopf!

It's the politics, stupid!

That could make a sig line...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 05:07:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's a little detail:
The country's debt agency said the shortfall in the sale reflected worsening market nerves on European debt markets but added it would sell back the retained amount to investors on secondary debt markets and that Germany would not face a funding bottleneck.

The results compared with an average retention by the central bank of 17.83 percent at 10-year bond auctions in 2011. Data from IFR, a Thomson Reuters service, showed this to be the highest Bundesbank retention since at least July 1999.

The article conflates the German debt Agency and the Bundesbank?

Also, the Bundesbank (not the debt agency) routinely "retains" a fraction of all bond issues? Is that a semantic legerdemain to avoid saying it's "buying" them?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 06:55:37 AM EST
Meaning it is still possible that it is just a matter of clueless journalism.
Have those bonds been sold or not?
by generic on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:21:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But, when they're "not sold", are they "retained" by the BuBa or by the German debt agency? And if they're "retained" by the BuBa, does the government get the cash for the bond issue? And if they do, and it's a secondary market sale, who's the intermediary?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Deutsche Anleiheemission -
"Das ist ein absolutes Desaster"


"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:32:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:35:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So this is much ado about the clueless English-speaking press?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:42:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In which case I made a clueless English comment on the FAZ. Oh well.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:57:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The german press doesn't mention the bundesbank. On the other hand the fish don't see the water.
by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:07:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems to be nothing but a language issue. And here is what the Buba says: they sold two thirds and are hoping to sell the rest in the next days.
by Katrin on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:29:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At what rate? I presume they're going to have to sweeten the deal to get buyers?

(Not too sure how these markets work ...)

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:30:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
1.98%. Apparently the problem is that the bunds aren't profitable enough compared to the Club Med. St. Market is reversing its views on the risk, I assume.
by Katrin on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:36:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean at what rate will they place them in the secondary market.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:37:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As much as they can get, I guess. And that depends on the buyers, er, if any...
by Katrin on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:45:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And has the German government now received the money anyway?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:30:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, that's the point. Reuters got it wrong.
by Katrin on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:37:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the German government debt increased by 3.6bn today and not by 6bn?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:36:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
exactly
by Katrin on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:51:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But if the BuBa decides to sell .4bn tomorrow to depress interest rates, as part of monetary policy, then the federal debt increases by 0.4bn?

This makes no sense, especially when the BuBa lectures the federal government on the need to keep the amount of debt outstanding under control.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 10:10:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Buba document calls the un-auctioned 2.356bn "Marktpflegequote", which I'd tentatively translate as "Market maintenance quota".

It doesn't say what that means.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:52:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It used to mean they are holding back part of the emission deliberately in order to react to the market, influencing the price. See.  Today's "Marktpflegequote" clearly is involuntary, though.
by Katrin on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:08:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The FT Alphaville thing I posted below wonders if it was voluntary after all ...

I think.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:09:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to the agency, the usual retained instruments are about 20%.

So 39% is not voluntary.

by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 11:44:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They also say "it varies wildly" so maybe it is always involuntary and they don't give it much thought, unlike the ticker watchers at Reuters or FT Alphaville who promote noise to news.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 12:07:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Though there didn't seem to be a lack of inside commentators to say it was a catastrophic auction...
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 02:20:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence this morning has this appreciation:

Yesterday, a bund auction flopped for the first time in living memory - as a result of which the entire eurozone no longer has a viable bond market. The flop was a major global event. It sent share price tumbling. Financial investors are now heavily betting on the break-up of the eurozone. Having held up well during most of the crisis, the euro declined to $1.33. Despite the 200bp jump in German yields, Italy's 10-year spreads rose back above 500bp, and Belgium's are now at 350bp.With every day of complacent and ignorant political announcement, especially from Berlin, the crisis deteriorates, and the cost of crisis resolution increases.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 03:07:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Uh, the BuBa is part of the "we" that sells the bonds?

That's what I was asking before. Is Reuters conflating the Bundesbank with the Deutsche Finanzagentur? It makes sense that the Finanzagentur sells the bonds, not that the Bundesbank does.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:25:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
German bond sale fails to attract buyers - FT.com

...the bid-to-cover ratio was only 0.65 times as the German debt agency sold just €3.644bn of its new 10-year Bund of the €6bn targeted.

The Bundesbank retained a massive €2.356bn, which it will plan to sell over the coming days in the hope market sentiment improves. If the Bundesbank retention is included, the bid-to-cover ratio was a modest 1.1 times.

Many market participants consider this an auction failure although some say technically it is not, as by retaining its own bonds the Bundesbank has pushed the bid-to-cover ratio above 1.0 times.

The average yield for the 10-year bonds was 1.98 per cent.

So the debt agency sells but they are the Buba's "own bonds"?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:07:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Contagion Shakes The Euro Core As 10 Year German Bund Auction A "Complete And Utter Disaster" | ZeroHedge
Earlier today Germany tried to sell €6 billion of 10 Year bunds. It "sold" €3.644 at a 1.98% yield. Which meant the German debt agency had to retain, i.e., not sell,  the 39% balance, or €2.356 billion.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:09:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The German Debt Agency (bond issuer) is Finanzagentur GmbH.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:14:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're deep into accounting sleight-of-hand at this stage, aren't we?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:15:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:23:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Have you got any more explanation?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:39:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... the German government has set up a special purpose vehicle to buy its own bonds. This allows it to sell the bonds gradually over time rather than in one big auction. Which makes sense. These big, lumpy bond auctions always were insane.

The accounting legerdemain enters into it if this SPV has access to the ECB's rediscount or market maker facilities. If it does, the German government issues bonds to... the German government, which then goes to the ECB to trade them for cash.

If it doesn't, then it's just stupid journalists being stupid.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:44:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
like this you mean?

It would be fun if all eurozone countries did it ...

by Katrin on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:54:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fixed link

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 12:05:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call a debt agency a special purpose vehicle. The use of a agency to handle the debt is quite common. And the treaty is quite clear that subordinated agencies of a state can't get credeit from the ECB either.

I think the Budnesbank is here just acting as a broker on the secondary markets.

by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:31:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So who's holding the 2.4bn that weren't auctioned today? The Finanzagentur or the BuBa?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:37:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Owner is the Finanzagentur. The Buba is only broker.
by Katrin on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:55:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The FT article supplied us with that link:

http://www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de/fileadmin/Material_Deutsche_Finanzagentur/PDF/Schuldenstand/Sch uldenstand_Quartal/2009-30-09.pdf

It doesn't matter it is from 2009, because is shows under IV. Bestand an Papieren im Besitz
des Bundes

that the Federal Republic owns around 48 billion of federal debt instruments. That won't be different now and easily explains the retained three billion of this action.

so owner federal republic, broker bundesbank

by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 10:07:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the bonds are retained by the BuBa for monetary purposes and are sold into the market at the discretion of the BuBa, not the Finanzagentur.

That's not a broker to me. Who decides whether the bonds are sold? The Owner or the Broker?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 10:07:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I now tried to inform myself using the Finanzagentur GmBH website. At least according to them, the procedure regarding the primary market is this:

http://www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de/en/institutional/primary-market/auction-procedure/

"The German Federal Government usually places single issues by auction. Only members of the "Auction Group Bund Issues" can participate directly in these auctions (see the section entitled Auction Group Bund Issues).
The auctions are carried out via the Deutsche Bundesbank Bund Bidding System (BBS). "

So the use the Bundesbank or rather its bidding system.

Regarding the secondary market, they say:

http://www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de/en/institutional/secondary-market/secondary-market-activities-f inance-agency/

"The level of how much own securities can be held is regulated in § 2 (5) of the Budget Law for credit authorizations. This dictates that currently, credit can be raised for financing purchases "within the framework of market support operations in the secondary market". The volume of credit should not exceed 5% of the nominal volume of the Federal bonds, five-year Federal notes, Federal Treasury notes and Treasury discount paper in circulation annually.

At each auction the German Federal Government can retain a portion of securities for secondary market operations which is then sold successively in the market afterwards. The volume of securities retained for market operations varies widely from auction to auction. Since 2005, the amount retained has averaged about 20% of the issuance volume (which also included money market paper and inflation-linked German Government securities)."

and:

"For its secondary market operations the Federal Government uses electronic trading platforms and the German stock exchanges. The agency's stock of bonds can be sold or purchased in the spot market within the framework of the German Federal Government's liquidity planning. The focus is on interbank trading and on supporting the activities of the market makers. This service provided by the issuer also enables members of the Auction Group to conduct transactions directly with the issuer as counterparty if necessary. The spot transactions are supplemented by repurchase agreements ("repos") and securities lending. The German Finance Agency executes its transactions with a minimum impact on the market and in line with market prices."

So contrary to my assumption, the Bundesbank, apart from the bidding system is not involved at all. That also means the speculation of Alphaville is without merit.

by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 11:41:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thinks, that's all clear now and Reuters was also wrong to say "Bundesbank".

What's peculiar here is that the Finanzagentur retains a stock of bonds which then uses for secondary market purchases, but (if we are to believe them) not as a market maker and as a price-taker. The Finanzagentur could well engage in limited yield manipulations in the secondary market, which would basically mean the federal government would be meddling in monetary policy. Of course they would never dream of doing such a thing. What they do say is that there is a "Federal Government [own Bond liquidity] Management", which could be construed also as meddling in monetary policy.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 11:57:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the Finanzagentur retains a stock of bonds which then uses for secondary market purchasesoperations

Purchases or sales. Obviously, the initially retained stock is intended for sales.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 12:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you are reaching to find a connection to monetary policy.

"What's peculiar here is that the Finanzagentur retains a stock of bonds which then uses for secondary market purchases"

Is that peculiar? Or do all treasuries and debt agencies do this?

by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 02:19:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Finanzagentur could well engage in limited yield manipulations in the secondary market, which would basically mean the federal government would be meddling in monetary policy.

That's probably what the "no more than 5 % of market volume" clause is there to prevent.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 03:04:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call a debt agency a special purpose vehicle. The use of a agency to handle the debt is quite common.

I called it an SPV because there's no good reason not to simply have the Treasury do it outright. Not because it's toxic (it's not).

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 03:06:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A simple subsidiary. Nothing more. Everything the agency is on the balance sheet, after all.
by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 03:12:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See FT Alphaville post linked by Colman.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:35:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't really understand the article.The Bundeabnk is intervening in the repo marjet by not intervening?

That point, though, semms to be easy to prove aor disprove:

>That, alongside the fact that the Bundesbank is retaining an ever greater share of bonds from auction, suggests only one thing to the logical mind.>

My empirical mind would just look up if the "ever greater share of bonds from action" is actually true prior to this action.

by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:57:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here are all the auction results this year:

http://www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de/fileadmin/Material_Deutsche_Finanzagentur/PDF/Aktuelle_Informat ionen/Auktionsergebnisse_E.pdf

The last auction of 10 year bunds was October 19th and 925 million out of 5,000 million € was retained. The first auction in 2011 was January fifth and 1084 million out of 5 billion was retained. So apart from this last auction there was no movement in the retained share.

And here is an explanation of  seconderay markets finance activity.

http://www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de/en/institutional/secondary-market/secondary-market-activities-f inance-agency/  

"The volume of securities retained for market operations varies widely from auction to auction. Since 2005, the amount retained has averaged about 20% of the issuance volume (which also included money market paper and inflation-linked German Government securities)."

by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 11:33:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT Alphaville: Interventions and bank queues in Eastern Europe
Reuters is reporting that Poland's central bank stepped into the spot market for the fourth time in less than three months on Wednesday to help support the zloty versus the euro, which was once again nearing levels last seen in 2009.
That's yet another peripheral EU central bank spending their limited Euro reserves to depress the Euro's exchange rate.
Develeraging by eurozone banks in Eastern Europe is already having negative effects across the region.

On Wednesday there were reports of queues forming outside Latvia's Krājbanka (H/T @finansakrobat)...



To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:03:21 AM EST
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

[Drew's WHEEEEE™ Technology]

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:16:47 AM EST
There was an article at the Libération two weeks ago that said the ECB will collect close to 3 T€ in revenues during the next 5 years. This could be sold to the market in advance to buy some serious debt tranches without printing any money. If I can find this article I shall post it here.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 07:31:46 AM EST
Why do governments have to borrow from the market anyway?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:16:13 AM EST


Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:23:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France borrowed ONLY from the Banque de France until 1973.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:39:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why France had hyperinflation for forty years.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:41:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And Monsieur Eetlair.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:59:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Under a gold standard the sovereign either issues money or borrows money from private hands. Because gold is neither created nor destroyed, only transformed.

The sovereign borrows in order to free hoarded gold for circulation

Under fiat money there's no reason for the government to borrow from the markets. Jake has called sovereign bond yields a subsidy on fmoney hoarding.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:19:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have been thinking (and asking questions here as some might have noticed) if there is a point to state borrowing fiat currency.

An argument could be constructed that the government could control amount of money circulating by on one hand regulate the CB rate and the conditions it is borrowed out under, and on the other give the opportunity to park your money with the state to suck up money that is not invested. Then as a rule, the bond rate should be slightly below the CB rate (if it is over banks can borrow from CB and to government, which is just another bank subsidy, if it is far below you get a wide span where the profitability of investment does not depend on CB rate), and the amount that the government borrows should be irrelevant.

Can I have this argument chopped up now?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:52:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But at the Zero Interest Rate bound the span collapses, and, even at 2% it is pretty small.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 02:49:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An argument could be constructed that the government could control amount of money circulating by on one hand regulate the CB rate and the conditions it is borrowed out under, and on the other give the opportunity to park your money with the state to suck up money that is not invested.

Yes. That's what interest rate policy does. Buying and selling government bonds is one way to enforce an interest rate policy (but neither the only nor the best one). Note also that interest rate policy is inherently destructive of economic activity: The CB can't create profitable investment opportunities where there are none, due to the zero bound on nominal rates; but it can destroy profitable investment opportunities by giving the prospective investors a risk-free yield above the internal rate of return on the investment in question.

So an interest rate based stability policy will tend to underperform a fiscal stability policy, all other things being equal. (Historically, all other things were not equal, because fiscal policy is traditionally decided once a year, while interest rate policy is decided continuously, giving interest rate policy an advantage in responsiveness. But that is an institutional idiosyncrasy, not an operational necessity.)

Then as a rule, the bond rate should be slightly below the CB rate

It's almost always above the CB rate. Often quite some way.

(if it is over banks can borrow from CB and to government, which is just another bank subsidy,

Yes. That is one of the reasons I call it a subsidy.

if it is far below you get a wide span where the profitability of investment does not depend on CB rate), and the amount that the government borrows should be irrelevant.

The Treasury yield can't go materially below the rediscount rate (unless the T-bond market is so thin that it becomes difficult to distinguish its existence at all).

If the Treasury rate is materially below the rediscount rate, banks will either dump Treasury bonds and pay back their debts to the CB with the proceeds, or (what comes to the same thing) offer non-bank holders deposit accounts with the same term structure but an interest rate somewhere between the T-bond rate and the rediscount rate.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 03:28:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
M'kay, the market lands at central bank rate level anyway, through the banks taking advantage of cheaper sources. Looks right.

Yeah, then I see no other reason then subsidy for governments to borrow from anybody then their own central bank.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 02:51:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Won't that be inflationary? Magicking money from nowhere, which is not (like in Switzerland) consumed by hot money flows, but actually goes into the real economy?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 05:39:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Using a private intermediary who goes to the CB instead of the sovereign doesn't change that money is magicked into existence.
by generic on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 06:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The point of subsidizing the intermediaries is to get them to release some of the money they're hoarding. If you don't want to do that, either you tax it or you inflate it away from them.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 02:47:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do we have to care about hoarded money once we stop treating the deficit as a goal in and of itself?
by generic on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 05:03:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ideally you want the hoarders to stop screwing around playing odd and arcane (and dangerous) "Financial Engineering" Games and invest the money in something worthwhile.

Could feed the world for a hundred years for the amount of money traded in the various markets in one day.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 05:15:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But they are not really hoarding it are they? And offering them a risk free return of a few percent won't stop them from trying to get twenty.
by generic on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 05:47:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They're not Scrooge McDuck, piling the stuff in their underground vault.

"Hoarding" is an elastic term, and perhaps not the best way to put it.  In my view, current government policy across the First World privileges debt over equity, the FIRE economy over the Real World© Economy and has done so for decades.  And, across the First World, we can see where this leads: micro- and meso-economic insanity.  

There's no way a firm actually making actual goods and/or services can approach the Return on Investment routinely made in the FIRE sector.  Financial firms, using the privileging of debt, can leverage their equity capital by hundreds of percent so they are, literally, making over 100% ROI per annum.  They can do that by "hoarding" - playing the futures, options, CMO, CDO, & so on markets - rather than investing in the less profitable business loan and business development.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 06:27:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The current policy is to protect at all costs the purchasing power of the net worth of money hoarders.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 07:13:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you're spending that money into an economy below full employment/capacity, it doesn't need to be inflationary.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 02:37:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But note, at times, you want to feed-in money to reduce unemployment and kick-start the economy into a higher level of activity.

Despite a hundred years of Neo-Classical propaganda, inflation is not necessarily and always a Bad Thing.

(I know I'm not telling you anything you didn't already know.  I'm merely using your comment for my own nefarious purposes.  :-)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 06:02:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Politicians realising that money is created out of thin air (either they pass by the banks or not) might create temptations, but is not really related to wheter the money pass by the bank. I would say that it is the constitutional and cultural constraints on how much deficit is accepted that is the real constraint here anyway.

And of course, if you create money and employ otherwise unemployed people that produce something of value, then the pool of goods and services that the money pool is related to also grows.

And also of course, the main source of inflation today appears to be from banks borrowing to private speculation.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 07:13:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you expect investors to have to work?
by rootless2 on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 10:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is now how the Reuters journalist rephrases his lead:

German 10-year bond auction a disaster | Reuters

(Reuters) - A "disastrous" sale of German benchmark bonds sparked fears on Wednesday the debt crisis was beginning to threaten even Berlin, with the Bundesbank forced to dig deep into its pockets to ensure the auction did not fail.

Means the same as "buy" to me.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 08:38:57 AM EST
FT Alphaville suggest a different take, which I don't understand well enough to summarise.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:06:45 AM EST
Government bonds are not debt instruments, they're monetary policy instruments (in the words of JakeS).

The Central Bank needs a sufficient stock of government bonds to be able to set rates.

Limiting the amount of government debt outstanding to (say) 60% GDP or the rate of issue to (say) 3% per year works is bonkers. In normal times, it doesn't much matter.

But what FT Alphaville is saying is that the Bundesbank effectively needs a lot more Bunds in hand than the Federal Government can issue.

(Others may interpret this differently)

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 10:03:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Central Bank needs a sufficient stock of government bonds to be able to set rates.

It doesn't, actually. There is no operational reason it can't defend any yield curve it may please it to defend with pure discount window operations.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 03:29:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another key point in the FT Alphaville story:
[manipulating interest rates is like manipulating exchange rates] Except that while there is in theory no limit on repurchases, there is a limit to raising rates if your reserve stock runs out. This is why some central banks operate so called phantom bond facilities which temporarily issue phantom bonds into the market to ensure rates could never in theory be restricted due to a shortage of central bank-held bonds.

The Bundesbank, however, does not have a phantom facility. As we have noted, it instead habitually retains float from auctions to build up buffers it can then release into the market when needed for rate setting purposes.

In other words, FTA claims that usually Central Banks can sell bonds short into the bond market, but peculiarly the Bundesbank sells from actual bond stock which is "reserved" out of each issue for that purpose.

I still need to get my head around that.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 10:31:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...usually Central Banks can sell bonds short into the bond market, but peculiarly the Bundesbank sells from actual bond stock...

This seems consistent with a view that insists on recreating the essential limitations of a gold standard in a de facto and de jure fiat currency system. Perhaps the problem is that the Euro is only theoretically a fiat currency.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 02:56:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the bundesbank here is acting here as a service provider, specially as a broker for the debt agency. Because they have more experience in the secondary markets. Since they are handling only the money of the federal republic in trust, the treaty isn't violated.
by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:38:13 AM EST
So the Finanzagentur retains ownership of the 2.4bn in unauctioned bonds, but the Bundesbank in pursuit of its monetary policy can decide to sell them in the secondary market at its own discretion, crediting the Treasury with the proceeds?

Does this mean that the amount of German government debt is determined at the margin at the discretion of the Bundesbank? That is, today the debt increased by 3.6bn but the Bundesbank can decide at its discretion to increase that to up to 6bn?

Or does the government itself hold its own bonds without cancelling them (so, the debt increased by 6bn today and the Finanzagentur which is part of the government holds 2.4bn of that - and the Bundesbank is allowed to sell them for cash in pursiut of monetary policy)?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 09:47:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I say above, I assumed wrong and the Bundesbank is not involved at all.
by IM on Wed Nov 23rd, 2011 at 11:42:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An op-ed in FTD (which also discusses Germany's higher-than-SPain's total debt and higher-than-Huungary's deficit) ends optimistic:

Bundesanleihen: Ein hoffentlich rechtzeitiger Schuss vor den Bug | FTD.de Federal bonds: A hopefully timely shot across the bow | FTD.de
Kommentar Die schlechteste deutsche Anleiheemission seit der Einführung des Euro ist ein deutliches Signal nach Berlin, dass die Schuldenkrise nicht das Problem der anderen ist - sondern das der Deutschen. von Frank Bremser Commentary The worst German bond issue since the introduction of the euro is a clear signal to Berlin that the debt crisis is not the problem of the others - but that of the Germans. By Frank Bremser
...Die Deutschen haben sich von den verräterisch niedrigen Renditen ihrer Anleihen blenden lassen. Ein dramatischer Fehler. Das hat dazu geführt, dass bislang echte Lösungsvorschläge für die Euro-Krise nicht aus Deutschland kamen. Die Franzosen fordern Eurobonds, einen stärkeren Euro-Rettungsfonds und ein Einschreiten der Europäischen Zentralbank. Verständlich, Ihnen steht das Wasser auch bis zum Hals. Was fordert Deutschland? Sparen und Vernunft. Naja, das kann man gut tun, wenn es einen selbst nicht betrifft. ... The Germans have alowed themselves to be blinded by treacherously low yields on their bonds. A dramatic mistake. This has led to the situation that no real solutions to the Euro Crisis came from Germany yet. The French call for Euro bonds, a stronger Euro rescue fund and intervention by the European Central Bank. That's understandable, the water is up to their neck. What is Germany calling for? Saving and rationality. Well, that one can do well if it doesn't concern oneself.
Es geht gar nicht um die Frage, ob sich Angela Merkel und Nicoals Sarkozy händchenhaltend wie einst Helmut Kohl und Francois Mitterand vor die Presse stellen sollen und sagen: "Die Rechnung geht komplett auf uns." Es geht auch nicht darum, ob es Eurobonds geben muss oder nicht. Es geht darum, dass die Schuldenkrise der Euro-Zone nicht das Problem einiger weniger Außenseiter ist, sondern das Problem aller. Vielleicht hat Deutschland das nach der missglückten Anleiheemission verstanden.The issue is not the question whether Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy should stand before the press holding hands as Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterrand once did and say: "The bill is completely on us." It's also not about whether there needs to be Euro bonds or not. The point is that the debt crisis of the Eurozone is not the problem of a few outsiders, but the problem of all. Maybe Germany has understood after the unsuccessful bond issue.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 05:13:52 AM EST
The reason for that optimism may be this:

Schuldenkrise: Front gegen Eurobonds bröckelt | FTD.de Debt crisis: The Front Against Euro-bonds is crumbling | FTD.de
Die Gemeinschaftsanleihen werden wahrscheinlicher: In der Koalition mehren sich die Stimmen für die Eurobonds. Die Kanzlerin könnte Offenheit beim EU-Gipfel signalisieren, heißt es aus Union und FDP. Zum ersten Mal äußert sich zudem auch die EZB positiv.The joint bonds are becoming more likely: in the [federal German governing] coalition, voices for the Euro bonds are multiplying. The Chancellor may signal openness at the EU summit, say some from the CDU and FDP. For the first time, the ECB also expressed itself positively.

The details are less savoury, though: the CDU guys are still thinking in terms of a bargain with the treaty change as price.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 05:20:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to Münchau, that's all for next crisis, not for the current one.
(In our view, the European Council should consider bringing forward the date of the December 9 summit, and adopt proposals for a Treaty Reform for a fiscal union and Eurobonds right away. Without this, there will be no crisis resolution. At this rate of market panic, it is not clear that the eurozone will otherwise make it until December 9.)
(Eurointelligence)

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 05:55:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't access the link, so can't tell if the quoted part is from Münchau or quoted by him from someone else. If the former, then he is speaking of Eurobonds as well as fiscal union as solution to the current crisis. Earlier it has been argued by many though that treaty changes take years and thus can indeed only address the next crisis rather than the current one. So again Martin Schulz in today's taz, though his quick solution Eurobonds supported by individual member states separately, solves nothing if I remember correctly.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 06:30:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Paragraphs in parentheses in the middle of Eurointelligence's press reviews are editorial comments (presumably by Münchau).

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 06:37:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A pro austerity comment.

And that is quite dishonest:

"Das Haushaltsdefizit betrug 4,3 Prozent, das ist im europäischen Vergleich noch recht gut, aber zum Beispiel Dänemark oder Ungarn wirtschafteten 2010 besser. "

Pointing out that the deficit in 2010 was 4,3% of gdp and that Denmark or Hungary were "better".

Of course the deficit in 2010 was actually higher then 2009. Why? Because the crisis of 2009 and the stimulus to fight the crisis arrived 2010 in the public budgets in the year 2010.  A deficit two years ago during a shrinking of the economy of 5% is not high.

by IM on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 07:16:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is this a good time for the PIIGS and other "periphery countries," like Hungary, to tell Merkozy to either come back to sanity or they will play the default card?

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 06:06:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. Hungary is not in the Eurozone and has a mad right-wing government.
  2. If just one of the PIIGS leaders had the acumen to think outside the box and rebel against the austerity dictate, Merkozy would have nothing to say years ago already.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 07:32:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hungary isn't in the eurozone but the forint, thus the Hungarian economy, is being jerked around by the ECB's euro policies.

In fact:

The forint weakened 1.5 percent today and traded at 316.11 per euro at 7:15 p.m. in Budapest. It lost 16 percent since June 30, making it the worst-performing currency in the world. The government's 10-year bonds slid, lifting the yield above 9 percent for the first time since 2009. Credit-default swaps rose to 646 basis points, a record high.

& etc. and so - depressingly - so forth.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 25th, 2011 at 03:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clearly, the Italian, Spanish, and Greek central banks can then do the same with their debt  - solving the crisis.

Ta da.

by rootless2 on Thu Nov 24th, 2011 at 09:45:49 AM EST


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