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by ATinNM Thu Mar 17th, 2011 at 07:20:37 PM EST
I imagine things are going to heat-up in Libya so ...
A place to talk.
Their courage is unimaginable. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Of course, the troops are all getting ready to lay siege to Benghazi... So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
(The latter to protect the Libyan people from an invasion of Invisible Lizard People.) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
A source at UN headquarters in New York said military forces could be deployed "within hours" of a new security council resolution calling for states to protect civilians by halting attacks by Muammar Gaddafi's forces by air, land and sea. The resolution would impose a no-fly zone over Libya - but a no-fly zone was no longer enough, the source said. "The resolution authorises air strikes against tank columns advancing on Benghazi or engaging naval ships bombarding Benghazi," he said.
The resolution would impose a no-fly zone over Libya - but a no-fly zone was no longer enough, the source said. "The resolution authorises air strikes against tank columns advancing on Benghazi or engaging naval ships bombarding Benghazi," he said.
I don't even know how to respond. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
It boggles. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Gaddafi has threatened to "get crazy," I don't even know how to respond.
She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
No soldiers will be allowed "on the ground" in Libya.
From what I can gather the Transitional National Council has got everything they wanted. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
CAIRO--Egypt's military has begun shipping arms over the border to Libyan rebels with Washington's knowledge, U.S. and Libyan rebel officials said. The shipments--mostly small arms such as assault rifles and ammunition--appear to be the first confirmed case of an outside government arming the rebel fighters.
The shipments--mostly small arms such as assault rifles and ammunition--appear to be the first confirmed case of an outside government arming the rebel fighters.
Now they need to up the ante with shipments of anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank missiles, artillery, armor, and logistic support. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
In Benghazi there are tens of thousands celebrating the revolution.
In Tripoli a room of pro-regime supporters. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Mar17: UN imposed NFZ and civilians are to be protected "by any means necessary."
The pace is unbelievable. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
International diplomacy just doesn't move that fast. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
If the League of Nations had acted like this Spain would have never had that fuckhead Franco.
AND the world might have escaped WW2. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
count?
:-) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
I thought that was what the League of Nations did... Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
We are so fucked. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
If Sarkozy pushed this through ... then good on him.
I am stoked. I really am. For the first time in ... god, I don't know how long ... the goddamn "international community" through the UN is actually acting. And BEFORE massive genocide has occurred. And, let's face it, if asshole had managed to retake Benghazi the death toll would have been horrendous.
This takes me back to when I was dumbass enough to think the UN was a force for justice. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
aspiring to genteel poverty
And in other news, Saudi troops help defeat rebellion in Bahrain. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
The people of Benghazi think they now they are going to win.
In the last few days we've seen a re-organization of the revolutionary forces. 8,000 men have defected with heavy weapons. Weapons coming through from Egypt and everywhere else will make all the difference.
Payback time you fucking murderous mercenary scum-bastards. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
NATO has been conducting surveillance and even radio intelligence operations against the regime's military forces.
At the urging/leadership of the US.
OK, I don't like Obama. But kudos to him. I can easily grasp what would have happened under a GOP presidency.
Better than France take the lead. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
BRB to bring you breaking news from the ATinNM News Network.
(Try and survive until then.)
In Britain, a lawmaker with knowledge of defense matters confirmed that British forces were on stand by for air strikes and could be mobilised as soon as Thursday night. The lawmaker declined to be named because the Defense Ministry has not issued official confirmation. French Prime Minister Francois Fillon told France-2 Television that if the resolution was approved France would support military action against Gadhafi within a matter of hours.
French Prime Minister Francois Fillon told France-2 Television that if the resolution was approved France would support military action against Gadhafi within a matter of hours.
The top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee argued against implementing a no-fly zone over Libya on Thursday, and also said that Congress must pass a formal declaration of war if the Obama administration decides to take that step. "Clearly, the United States should be engaged with allies on how to oppose the Qaddafi regime and support the aspirations of the Libyan people," said Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) at the start of the committee's Thursday morning hearing on the Middle East. "But given the costs of a no-fly zone, the risks that our involvement would escalate, the uncertain reception in the Arab street of any American intervention in an Arab country, the potential for civilian deaths, the unpredictability of the endgame in a civil war, the strains on our military, and other factors, I am doubtful that U.S. interests would be served by imposing a no-fly zone over Libya."
The top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee argued against implementing a no-fly zone over Libya on Thursday, and also said that Congress must pass a formal declaration of war if the Obama administration decides to take that step.
"Clearly, the United States should be engaged with allies on how to oppose the Qaddafi regime and support the aspirations of the Libyan people," said Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) at the start of the committee's Thursday morning hearing on the Middle East. "But given the costs of a no-fly zone, the risks that our involvement would escalate, the uncertain reception in the Arab street of any American intervention in an Arab country, the potential for civilian deaths, the unpredictability of the endgame in a civil war, the strains on our military, and other factors, I am doubtful that U.S. interests would be served by imposing a no-fly zone over Libya."
The method I suggested is a traditional method and would be immediately recognized and accepted as such by the Libyan people, especially if performed by a tribal elder or leader. It comes from T.E. Laurence, who did know the traditional Arab mind rather well. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
UN orders air strikes against Gaddafi - World Politics, World - The Independent
The abstainers Brazil Has a long history of supporting pariah states. India Like Germany and Brazil, has no veto on Security Council. Its abstention came even as the US championed its promotion to permanent membership. China Usually abstains when it disapproves of a resolution, sparing its veto for issues of direct strategic interest. Its authoritarian government is concerned about setting precedents for interfering in a sovereign state. Germany Outspoken critic of the UK-French plans for a no-fly zone, saying it did not want to get sucked into a war. Russia Has its own internal problems, including in Caucasus. Unwilling to get involved in other countries' affairs.
The abstainers
Brazil Has a long history of supporting pariah states.
India Like Germany and Brazil, has no veto on Security Council. Its abstention came even as the US championed its promotion to permanent membership.
China Usually abstains when it disapproves of a resolution, sparing its veto for issues of direct strategic interest. Its authoritarian government is concerned about setting precedents for interfering in a sovereign state.
Germany Outspoken critic of the UK-French plans for a no-fly zone, saying it did not want to get sucked into a war.
Russia Has its own internal problems, including in Caucasus. Unwilling to get involved in other countries' affairs.
Doesn't bode well for the multipolar world.
Then again, based on past experience, The WestTM could be doing the right thing for the wrong reasons, and could also botch it. So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
My instinct is that they are doing it primarily under pressure of public opinion. Those who are sticking out their chins and their chests brashly (not naming names...) are doing it to gain popularity, to be sure.
International public opinion is a good reason. (In this case, at least.)
I don't believe they are doing it primarily for access to energy, because nothing the rebel leaders could promise now would be enforceable. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
I don't believe they are doing it primarily for access to energy, because nothing the rebel leaders could promise now would be enforceable.
In the case of the UK, it could be trying scratch the Lockerbie itch, and so on... So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
If anything, I think access to energy might explain the reluctance to act to some degree. Gaddafi winning would likely be better for that anyway. By going for the NFZ and airstrikes, we're pretty much guaranteeing that the oil fields are going to be offline for the foreseeable future.
Like Mig says, the argument will undoubtedly be made by Gaddafi and others, but in this case I don't think it's terribly convincing, particularly as the rebels asked us to do this and enjoy a lot more popularity in the Middle East/North Africa than Gaddafi. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Which reasons would those be?
The autocrats in the Arab League is going to sign off on this tomorrow as I understand. What are they being promised? A blind eye as they strike down their own rebellions? Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
A great day. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
Obama finally made his mind up. The US would intervene to stop him. And there would be no half measures. All steps short of boots on the ground, as the US under-secretary of state William Burns put it are now urgently contemplated, with a view to immediate implementation. That means possible, imminent air strikes as well as an air exclusion zone. It means direct head-on combat with Libya's air force, if it chooses to fight. It means, potentially, western casualties, if pilots are shot down or bail out or are taken hostage. It could mean innocent civilian deaths as the EU's foreign policy chief Lady Ashton warned last week. And if things do not go well, it may mean escalation beyond all that is envisaged now. Who knows when it will stop. The immediate impact may be to stop Gaddafi's advance on Benghazi in its tracks. If that happens, the revolution will have been salvaged, albeit at the very last moment. Whether it can endure is another matter entirely. The US and its European and Arab allies will hope that Gaddafi, facing the prospect of overwhelming, punitive force, will quickly back down, observe the UN demand for a ceasefire, even agree to negotiations. But to be sure of saving Benghazi, a no-fly zone will not be enough. To drive home the point the game is up, it is likely allied air strikes on Gaddafi's heavy armour and artillery will be required, and possibly also attacks directed at him personally, as Ronald Reagan tried in 1986. Gaddafi acts like a bully and a coward. But he is full of bluster. Only a sudden, bloody nose will convince him to desist. This is he is probably about to receive. And the betting must be that, once the revised odds become clear, those remnants of the Libyan army and security forces that have so far remained loyal will desert him, too.
That means possible, imminent air strikes as well as an air exclusion zone. It means direct head-on combat with Libya's air force, if it chooses to fight. It means, potentially, western casualties, if pilots are shot down or bail out or are taken hostage. It could mean innocent civilian deaths as the EU's foreign policy chief Lady Ashton warned last week. And if things do not go well, it may mean escalation beyond all that is envisaged now. Who knows when it will stop.
The immediate impact may be to stop Gaddafi's advance on Benghazi in its tracks. If that happens, the revolution will have been salvaged, albeit at the very last moment. Whether it can endure is another matter entirely.
The US and its European and Arab allies will hope that Gaddafi, facing the prospect of overwhelming, punitive force, will quickly back down, observe the UN demand for a ceasefire, even agree to negotiations. But to be sure of saving Benghazi, a no-fly zone will not be enough. To drive home the point the game is up, it is likely allied air strikes on Gaddafi's heavy armour and artillery will be required, and possibly also attacks directed at him personally, as Ronald Reagan tried in 1986.
Gaddafi acts like a bully and a coward. But he is full of bluster. Only a sudden, bloody nose will convince him to desist. This is he is probably about to receive. And the betting must be that, once the revised odds become clear, those remnants of the Libyan army and security forces that have so far remained loyal will desert him, too.
We'll have to see how the UN resolution is implemented and interpreted. It could be as little as preventing the LAF from flying to tactical air strikes on regime ground forces.
It's dawn in Libya so we could get a glimpse into the military plans Real Soon. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Defence sources in London meanwhile indicated that the coalition's first targets would be the tank convoys closing on Benghazi or ships attempting to bombard the city. Arab participation is likely to be provided initially by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, although there were already reports as the resolution was passed of Egypt shipping arms to the rebels across the border. The US is not expected to provide military back-up initially, although it has an aircraft carrier off the coast. The operation is likely to be mounted from French air force bases in the south of the country - which is less than 1,000 miles from the Libyan coast - as well as from RAF bases in Cyprus. Italy has also said it is prepared to make its military bases available to enforce a no-fly zone. Arab involvement was a priority for London and Washington, which are anxious to avoid a perception of outside meddling in Arab affairs.
Defence sources in London meanwhile indicated that the coalition's first targets would be the tank convoys closing on Benghazi or ships attempting to bombard the city. Arab participation is likely to be provided initially by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, although there were already reports as the resolution was passed of Egypt shipping arms to the rebels across the border.
The US is not expected to provide military back-up initially, although it has an aircraft carrier off the coast.
The operation is likely to be mounted from French air force bases in the south of the country - which is less than 1,000 miles from the Libyan coast - as well as from RAF bases in Cyprus. Italy has also said it is prepared to make its military bases available to enforce a no-fly zone.
Arab involvement was a priority for London and Washington, which are anxious to avoid a perception of outside meddling in Arab affairs.
The threat of military action prompted Libya to promise attacks on civilian targets. In a fiery television address last night, Muammar Gaddafi said his forces were set to retake Benghazi. "The people will see tomorrow if the city is one of traitors or heroes... Don't betray me, my beloved Benghazi," he said. After the resolution, the regime's official response came from deputy foreign minister Khalid Kaim, whose press conference in front of television cameras was interrupted when a noisy crowd of young men chanting pro-Gaddafi slogans burst into the room in what was supposedly a spontaneous show of support for the regime. Mr Kaim congratulated the abstaining countries, but insisted that "there will be no intention of any party to attack civilians anywhere in the country". He denied that his remarks contrasted with the threats against Benghazi earlier in the day by Col Gaddafi.
The threat of military action prompted Libya to promise attacks on civilian targets. In a fiery television address last night, Muammar Gaddafi said his forces were set to retake Benghazi. "The people will see tomorrow if the city is one of traitors or heroes... Don't betray me, my beloved Benghazi," he said.
After the resolution, the regime's official response came from deputy foreign minister Khalid Kaim, whose press conference in front of television cameras was interrupted when a noisy crowd of young men chanting pro-Gaddafi slogans burst into the room in what was supposedly a spontaneous show of support for the regime.
Mr Kaim congratulated the abstaining countries, but insisted that "there will be no intention of any party to attack civilians anywhere in the country".
He denied that his remarks contrasted with the threats against Benghazi earlier in the day by Col Gaddafi.
[Insert zinger about believing impossible things before breakfast.] It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
UN security council resolution 1973 (2011) on Libya - full text | World news | The Guardian
6. Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;7. Decides further that the ban imposed by paragraph 6 shall not apply to flights whose sole purpose is humanitarian, such as delivering or facilitating the delivery of assistance, including medical supplies, food, humanitarian workers and related assistance, or evacuating foreign nationals from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, nor shall it apply to flights authorised by paragraphs 4 or 8, nor other flights which are deemed necessary by States acting under the authorisation conferred in paragraph 8 to be for the benefit of the Libyan people, and that these flights shall be coordinated with any mechanism established under paragraph 8;8. Authorizes Member States that have notified the Secretary-General and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, acting nationally or through regional organizations or arrangements, to take all necessary measures to enforce compliance with the ban on flights imposed by paragraph 6 above, as necessary, and requests the States concerned in cooperation with the League of Arab States to coordinate closely with the Secretary General on the measures they are taking to implement this ban, including by establishing an appropriate mechanism for implementing the provisions of paragraphs 6 and 7 above,
6. Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;
7. Decides further that the ban imposed by paragraph 6 shall not apply to flights whose sole purpose is humanitarian, such as delivering or facilitating the delivery of assistance, including medical supplies, food, humanitarian workers and related assistance, or evacuating foreign nationals from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, nor shall it apply to flights authorised by paragraphs 4 or 8, nor other flights which are deemed necessary by States acting under the authorisation conferred in paragraph 8 to be for the benefit of the Libyan people, and that these flights shall be coordinated with any mechanism established under paragraph 8;
8. Authorizes Member States that have notified the Secretary-General and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, acting nationally or through regional organizations or arrangements, to take all necessary measures to enforce compliance with the ban on flights imposed by paragraph 6 above, as necessary, and requests the States concerned in cooperation with the League of Arab States to coordinate closely with the Secretary General on the measures they are taking to implement this ban, including by establishing an appropriate mechanism for implementing the provisions of paragraphs 6 and 7 above,
Question 2: The situation is also deteriorating in Yemen and Bahrain... What about a UN resolution for those?
Question 3: What will be the psychological fall-out on Ahmadinedshad as he's looking on?
Question 4: Is it to be taken seriously when Gaddafi threatens to take ElKaida for an ally?
One of the reasons Germany abstained is that they fear repercussions due to the intervention (eg terrorist attacks; - or more/an escalation of the conflict?).
A note: The resolution was co-sponsored by the Lebanese government, in which the Shiite party Hizbullah (Hezbollah) is a leading element. In part, Lebanon was representing the Arab League, which in some ways was the major political force (along with Britain and France) pushing for world action. But in other ways something more personal was going on. When I was working for a newspaper in Beirut in 1978, I translated wire service reports on the disappearance of the great Shiite leader Mousa al-Sadr while on a trip to Libya. He was likely murdered by Qaddafi and put in a grave somewhere there. I once attended a lecture by Sadr in Beirut. He was a great man, charismatic and a force for uplift in his community and for outreach to other communities. He probably went to Libya in an attempt to convince Qaddafi not to send any more weapons to the factions there (such arms shipments and factionalization contributed to the long Lebanese Civil War). Lebanese Shiites, including Hizbullah, still lionize Mousa al-Sadr and despise Qaddafi. Payback is a bitch.
When I was working for a newspaper in Beirut in 1978, I translated wire service reports on the disappearance of the great Shiite leader Mousa al-Sadr while on a trip to Libya. He was likely murdered by Qaddafi and put in a grave somewhere there. I once attended a lecture by Sadr in Beirut. He was a great man, charismatic and a force for uplift in his community and for outreach to other communities. He probably went to Libya in an attempt to convince Qaddafi not to send any more weapons to the factions there (such arms shipments and factionalization contributed to the long Lebanese Civil War). Lebanese Shiites, including Hizbullah, still lionize Mousa al-Sadr and despise Qaddafi.
Payback is a bitch.
13:46 - Libya's foreign affairs minister Moussa Koussa also told journalists that Libya called for talks with all parties. 13:44 - Libya's foreign affairs minister has said the government has decided to halt all military operations to protect civilians in line with the UN's no-fly resolution. 13:41 - (AFP) Libya announces immediate halt to all military operations.
13:44 - Libya's foreign affairs minister has said the government has decided to halt all military operations to protect civilians in line with the UN's no-fly resolution.
13:41 - (AFP) Libya announces immediate halt to all military operations.
Don't get me wrong, I am not a complete pacifist and support the UN resolution and applaud them for passing it just in time to save at least Benghazi if not the other towns under attack.
And I have no difficulty with military action designed to prevent further attacks by Gaddafi forces in contravention of the ceasefire.
But the process of establishing a viable and just future Governance structure for Libya is a good deal more complex than getting rid of Gaddafi and his henchmen and replacing one regime with another of unknown intentions and capabilities.
We don't know enough about who is, and is not, crossing over from Gaddafi to opposition forces, about how tribal allegiances are shifting, and how the transitional Governing council will act if it achieves the upper hand.
A lot of the army seem to be crossing over to the "revolutionary" side together with increasing amounts of heavy weaponry, so regime change may already be happening. The situation is so unstable, fluid and fast changing, it is difficult to predict tomorrow's events, never mind next week. There is no long term solution which includes Gaddafi, but there are any number of ways by which that may come about - and a direct ground assault on Tripoli by outside forces as suggested by Booman should be the very last resort. Index of Frank's Diaries
process of transition to democratic rule with the Transitional Governing Council.
i watched a fascinating Doha Debate on BBC yesterday, filmed in Cairo, in which they discussed exactly this.
the rub is who will be on this Transitional Governing Council? elected or appointed? who will choose the choosers?
the pro's wanted to wait for elections until political parties could build platforms and engage with the electorate in campaigns etc. their second point was that the muslim brotherhood is best positioned with early elections, which would be less fair.
the con's want elections right away, because they felt the longer the military is left in power, the less likely it will be to relax its grip.
both sides argue convincingly, the end vote was to wait for elections, and trust that the security forces/army will stay on the side of the people that long to permit a total re-write of the constitution (both sides want this, no amendments, just trash it and restart from scratch).
considering the military refusing hosni's orders was pivotal in the revolution, they have some justification for this. the best argument con was that elections with tanks in the streets were less democratic, and that elections done sooner would get the military back to its real work, defending the country, not policing its own people.
the pro's want to wait longer till democratic institutions can be constructed, parties given time to offer mature policy ideas, clearer ideologies etc.
they point to Tunisia as an example of a successful Transitional Governing Council, so it can be done...
kudos to a terrific debate, all in english!!
the unifying power of english-as-global-lingua-franca was spectacularly obvious, the speakers and questions from the audience were astonishingly articulate and profound. it was a privilege to have a good look into the nascent sociopolitics at such a poignantly pivotal history plot point.
60 years of dictatorship, and now the freedom to redesign their society from the inside out. they know how important -and how hard- it is to get it right, and they care so passionately. one of the most riveting hours of television i have ever seen.
it also hit home how we need a global constitution, a blueprint that will template for any country, and all these brave people ripping off their shackles will probably author some new factors that can learn from the best the west have evolved, and re-volve them to greater affirmations of decency and wise global governance.
free libya! free the world! 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
He's worried that we're committing to something without really committing to it fully, and that the consequence could be to make it needlessly bloody or even a failure.
I think it's a little pessimistic, but his concerns aren't lost on me. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
On Libya, he basically wanted Europe to do the invading and the regime change. He argued that basically that was what the UN was sanctioning. My point is that under international law, the UN can sanction no such thing. Protect civilians, yes. Prevent human rights abuses, yes. Ultimately attack Gaddafi forces if they violate the ceasefire, yes. Overt invasion for the purposes of regime change crosses the line.
Europe isn't here to follow neocon framing and act as the USA has done in Afghanistan or Iraq. Boo is now arguing that gross human right's violations are not the USA'a problem. He's wrong on that score as well. It is the responsibility for all UN members, and particularly Security Council members, to act. But the solution isn't the invade first and ask questions afterwards.
It used to be US conservatives who were the isolationists. Now it is US progressives - disillusioned by Iraq and Afghanistan - who take that stance. What we actually need is a more sophisticated model of graduated intervention, not the all or nothing approach Boo seems to be advocating. Index of Frank's Diaries
I have severe doubts about bombing for peace. In theory I understand it, but in practice once started it will take a life of its own. After cheerleading it, media will back this no matter how horrible the western actions get. Head of state will act from reasons of prestige, military from institutional interests and governments will always have an eye towards economic benefit of to the state closly related companies.
Also it is an obvious double standard when looking at what happens elsewhere in the region, and I suspect that ties together in war games run by Pentagon strategists. Libya is unimportant in a strategic perspective, Saudi Arabia, the gulf states, Iraq, Iran, Egypt - those are the important ones. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
But actually, since whoever is in charge will sell to Europe, the ruler(s) does not matter much, do they? Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Here, however, is the news that should be on the front pages of newspapers everywhere: That old oil order is dying, and with its demise we will see the end of cheap and readily accessible petroleum -- forever. ... One conclusion isn't hard to draw: Efforts by outsiders to control the political order in the Middle East for the sake of higher oil output will inevitably generate countervailing pressures that result in diminished production. The United States and other powers watching the uprisings, rebellions, and protests blazing through the Middle East should be wary indeed: whatever their political or religious desires, local populations always turn out to harbor a fierce, passionate hostility to foreign domination and, in a crunch, will choose independence and the possibility of freedom over increased oil output.
... One conclusion isn't hard to draw: Efforts by outsiders to control the political order in the Middle East for the sake of higher oil output will inevitably generate countervailing pressures that result in diminished production. The United States and other powers watching the uprisings, rebellions, and protests blazing through the Middle East should be wary indeed: whatever their political or religious desires, local populations always turn out to harbor a fierce, passionate hostility to foreign domination and, in a crunch, will choose independence and the possibility of freedom over increased oil output.
And let's not be fooled by what the UN resolution really means. Yet again, it's going to be regime-change. And just as in Iraq - to use one of Tom Friedman's only memorable phrases of the time - when the latest dictator goes, who knows what kind of bats will come flying out of the box? ... So here are a few things that could go wrong, a sidelong glance at those bats still nestling in the glistening, dank interior of their box. Suppose Gaddafi clings on in Tripoli and the British and French and Americans shoot down all his aircraft, blow up all his airfields, assault his armour and missile batteries and he simply doesn't fade away. I noticed on Thursday how, just before the UN vote, the Pentagon started briefing journalists on the dangers of the whole affair; that it could take "days" just to set up a no-fly zone. ... We talk now about the need to protect "the Libyan people", no longer registering the Senoussi, the most powerful group of tribal families in Benghazi, whose men have been doing much of the fighting. King Idris, overthrown by Gaddafi in 1969, was a Senoussi. The red, black and green "rebel" flag - the old flag of pre-revolutionary Libya - is in fact the Idris flag, a Senoussi flag. Now let's suppose they get to Tripoli (the point of the whole exercise, is it not?), are they going to be welcomed there? Yes, there were protests in the capital. But many of those brave demonstrators themselves originally came from Benghazi. What will Gaddafi's supporters do? "Melt away"? Suddenly find that they hated Gaddafi after all and join the revolution? Or continue the civil war? And what if the "rebels" enter Tripoli and decide Gaddafi and his crazed son Saif al-Islam should meet their just rewards, along with their henchmen? Are we going to close our eyes to revenge killings, public hangings, the kind of treatment Gaddafi's criminals have meted out for many a long year? I wonder. Libya is not Egypt.... It is all wearingly familiar. And now we are back at it again, banging our desks in spiritual unity. We don't have many options, do we, unless we want to see another Srebrenica? But hold on. Didn't that happen long after we had imposed our "no-fly" zone over Bosnia?
... So here are a few things that could go wrong, a sidelong glance at those bats still nestling in the glistening, dank interior of their box. Suppose Gaddafi clings on in Tripoli and the British and French and Americans shoot down all his aircraft, blow up all his airfields, assault his armour and missile batteries and he simply doesn't fade away. I noticed on Thursday how, just before the UN vote, the Pentagon started briefing journalists on the dangers of the whole affair; that it could take "days" just to set up a no-fly zone.
... We talk now about the need to protect "the Libyan people", no longer registering the Senoussi, the most powerful group of tribal families in Benghazi, whose men have been doing much of the fighting. King Idris, overthrown by Gaddafi in 1969, was a Senoussi. The red, black and green "rebel" flag - the old flag of pre-revolutionary Libya - is in fact the Idris flag, a Senoussi flag. Now let's suppose they get to Tripoli (the point of the whole exercise, is it not?), are they going to be welcomed there? Yes, there were protests in the capital. But many of those brave demonstrators themselves originally came from Benghazi. What will Gaddafi's supporters do? "Melt away"? Suddenly find that they hated Gaddafi after all and join the revolution? Or continue the civil war?
And what if the "rebels" enter Tripoli and decide Gaddafi and his crazed son Saif al-Islam should meet their just rewards, along with their henchmen? Are we going to close our eyes to revenge killings, public hangings, the kind of treatment Gaddafi's criminals have meted out for many a long year? I wonder. Libya is not Egypt.
... It is all wearingly familiar. And now we are back at it again, banging our desks in spiritual unity. We don't have many options, do we, unless we want to see another Srebrenica? But hold on. Didn't that happen long after we had imposed our "no-fly" zone over Bosnia?
geo-magazine reporter Gabriele Riedle visited the country recently and comes away with a completely different assessment of the situation. Basically, she saw a power struggle between factions and tribes.
What do the demonstrators want? The surprising answer of the journalist: "I haven't met a single person who talks of democracy." The reflex of the West to think of the protest as good and bringing democracy is nothing more than "wishful thinking à la CNN" says Riedle and believes instead that the protests are more about a redistribution of power.... What does the power struggle mean for the future of the country and social progress? And does the ouster of Gadaffi solve the problems? Gabriele Riedle's answer is less than optimistic. "What's supposed to get better? The privileges will be gone as well as the benefits and women will be afraid that the country will turn more fundamentalist." The protests have gained their own dynamic that have nothing to do with political intentions. "Someone shoots, then there is grief and then there is more shooting." ... An assessment that is shared by the Northern-Africa expert Thomas Hasel of the Otto-Suhr Institute. Especially the strong rivalries between tribes would make it difficult to "pull something new out of the hat." Additionally, there are no alternative parties (in contrast to Egypt) and no structures of civil society such as associations since they are forbidden.
... What does the power struggle mean for the future of the country and social progress? And does the ouster of Gadaffi solve the problems? Gabriele Riedle's answer is less than optimistic. "What's supposed to get better? The privileges will be gone as well as the benefits and women will be afraid that the country will turn more fundamentalist." The protests have gained their own dynamic that have nothing to do with political intentions. "Someone shoots, then there is grief and then there is more shooting."
... An assessment that is shared by the Northern-Africa expert Thomas Hasel of the Otto-Suhr Institute. Especially the strong rivalries between tribes would make it difficult to "pull something new out of the hat." Additionally, there are no alternative parties (in contrast to Egypt) and no structures of civil society such as associations since they are forbidden.
I fear the Libya crisis has resurrected (at least for a short time) the unholy alliance of liberal do-gooders and trigger-happy right-wingers that achieved so much mischief in Afghanistan and Iraq. And we're already seeing how they are pouring more fodder into the conflict. France is apparently delivering heavy weapons to the rebels - isn't there some arms embargo in place? This could turn into a long-running civil war between East and West with its attendant refugee crisis. I don't want to imagine what kind of new monsters will be born out this.
One lesson to take away from the Iraq and Afghanistan disaster was to learn how to let go. The Middle East is on its own path and a beneficial outcome and history cannot be engineered. Instead, the old cliches of 'impending genocide' and 'bad dictators who will be overthrown by democratically minded people' are dusted off for their final performance.
I hope this goes well. But there is the primary difficulty. What does "well" mean? It's very hard to win a war when you don't define 'victory'. Monsieur Le President Hyperactif probably has no mind for that.
The age of interventions is over.
Zenga, zenga! Schengen is toast!
Looks like Gaddafi is attempting to re-take Benghazi before French, British, and other countries can intervene with their air forces. Smooth move, if it works. If it doesn't those units will be, effectively, lost to the regime. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
This is done to prep the runways for flight operations. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
If Gaddafi's going straight for Benghazi, I suspect France and Britain will be moving on him soon. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Feb17 website. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Now or never, fellas. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Plus, unlike the US and Britain, the French have an intelligence agency which, from what I've read, doesn't have its head up its ass. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Before Thursday night's dramatic vote at the UN security council, European diplomats were saying that resolution 1973, and the sweeping military measures it authorises in Libya, could be put into effect "in hours". Just how many hours it will take is critical to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi which is braced for an attack from forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi. The Libyan leader warned that his troops would go from house to house and room to room when they took the city, showing "no mercy". The onslaught did not materialise on Thursday night as Gaddafi had threatened, but government forces have massed in preparation for an attack, so it clear that if the Security Council words are to mean anything, time is very short. If this had been a Bush-era "coalition of the willing" operation, it could have been put into action quite rapidly. The US would have done all the fighting with a few token British and French planes along for company. But the Obama administration, which tried very hard to avoid this moment, is insistent that the Arabs and Europeans must at least be seen to take the lead, and that will take more time. There is a trade-off between speed and making it look right. First of all, the matter has to go to Nato, where contingency planning has been underway for a couple of weeks, but where Turkey has been resisting military intervention. Any decision to act requires unanimity. If and when that resistance is overcome, it is likely that the Nato air base at Sigonella in Sicily will become the hub for operations, supported by French and British bases around the Mediterranean. Then it will be a question of assembling all the fighter jets, the refuelling planes, the surveillance, search-and-rescue, and electronic warfare aircraft necessary to mount a campaign.
Just how many hours it will take is critical to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi which is braced for an attack from forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi. The Libyan leader warned that his troops would go from house to house and room to room when they took the city, showing "no mercy". The onslaught did not materialise on Thursday night as Gaddafi had threatened, but government forces have massed in preparation for an attack, so it clear that if the Security Council words are to mean anything, time is very short.
If this had been a Bush-era "coalition of the willing" operation, it could have been put into action quite rapidly. The US would have done all the fighting with a few token British and French planes along for company. But the Obama administration, which tried very hard to avoid this moment, is insistent that the Arabs and Europeans must at least be seen to take the lead, and that will take more time. There is a trade-off between speed and making it look right.
First of all, the matter has to go to Nato, where contingency planning has been underway for a couple of weeks, but where Turkey has been resisting military intervention. Any decision to act requires unanimity.
If and when that resistance is overcome, it is likely that the Nato air base at Sigonella in Sicily will become the hub for operations, supported by French and British bases around the Mediterranean. Then it will be a question of assembling all the fighter jets, the refuelling planes, the surveillance, search-and-rescue, and electronic warfare aircraft necessary to mount a campaign.
I'm sure it proves Obama is Carter. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Then who exactly initiated them? And why? Is it really spontaneous rebellion? I do not believe in those...Even if it is it will not work because of the lack of organization.
I think everybody is initiating them, or rather that every organisation that potentially could (commies, fundies, unions) do an uprising is taking credit and helping as the rebellions erupt from frustration, starvation, unemployment and the belief that finally the time has come.
Big part is demographics coupled with IMF-style economics, giving huge unemployment. Lots and lots of unemployed young men. Education matters little, contacts much. Like what was said about Russia in the early 20th century - they face revolution at home or war abroad (tried one, got both). Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Nailed. herding all these cats into a viable political alternative to dictatorship is going to be interesting.
the long messy discussions are what slows democracy down, but the alternative seems always worse.
do not destroy what you cannot create.
that is the rule. now, how to break it correctly. we can all help, that's the beautiful thing... in reality we have no choice. 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
So have the international community's predictions of Gaddafi's firepower been wrong all along? Not quite, says Gary Li, of the Defence and Military Analysis Programme at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "It's an open debate," said Li in a phone interview with FRANCE 24. "Gaddafi's forces have the advantage now as they have changed their methods. They started with airstrikes - with mixed success. What's happening now is his elite brigades are using the classic `creeping barrage' tactic of heavily shelling areas and gradually moving inwards. But as each side reaches the heartland of the other, both sides are finding it difficult to deal the fatal blow."
So have the international community's predictions of Gaddafi's firepower been wrong all along?
Not quite, says Gary Li, of the Defence and Military Analysis Programme at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"It's an open debate," said Li in a phone interview with FRANCE 24. "Gaddafi's forces have the advantage now as they have changed their methods. They started with airstrikes - with mixed success. What's happening now is his elite brigades are using the classic `creeping barrage' tactic of heavily shelling areas and gradually moving inwards. But as each side reaches the heartland of the other, both sides are finding it difficult to deal the fatal blow."
Despite Libyan state TV claims that Misrata, the last big rebel stronghold in western Libya, had fallen on Wednesday, rebel spokesmen and residents on Thursday said rebels still controlled the strategic city. Similarly, Libyan state media claims that Ajdabiya, a town east of Benghazi, had been seized from rebel control have also been refuted, with hospital officials telling reporters the city had witnessed heavy fighting, but still no surrender.
Despite Libyan state TV claims that Misrata, the last big rebel stronghold in western Libya, had fallen on Wednesday, rebel spokesmen and residents on Thursday said rebels still controlled the strategic city.
Similarly, Libyan state media claims that Ajdabiya, a town east of Benghazi, had been seized from rebel control have also been refuted, with hospital officials telling reporters the city had witnessed heavy fighting, but still no surrender.
1127: Two RAF Tornados have been seen taking off from RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland. It is impossible to say where they are headed but they are equipped with long-range fuel tanks.
PARIS, March 19 (Reuters) - Canada backs the idea of taking swift military action in Libya but it would need two days to prepare its military aircraft for an operation, a government spokesman said during international talks in Paris."While Canada supports quick action, Canadian fighter jets have just reached the region and will require two days to prepare for any mission," a spokesman for Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Reuters by email.
PARIS, March 19 (Reuters) - Canada backs the idea of taking swift military action in Libya but it would need two days to prepare its military aircraft for an operation, a government spokesman said during international talks in Paris.
"While Canada supports quick action, Canadian fighter jets have just reached the region and will require two days to prepare for any mission," a spokesman for Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Reuters by email.
BBC News - Live: Libya crisis
BFM, a French TV station, is reporting French fighter jets are over Benghazi enforcing the no-fly zone.
This is an all-news station, focused on economics/business news. It's owned by a smallish group which also owns the RMC radio. So probably following the current wisdom, but no other particular evil ;) Wind power
My hope is the attacks will be directed against military targets, the regime's air fields, ground forces, and their logistics, staying far away from civic infrastructure and population centers. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
The BBC reports President Sarkozy is due to make a statement on Libya "shortly" as the meeting in Paris with world leaders wraps up.
The regime started off with:
In 2009 the [International Institute for Strategic Studies] estimated that Libya had Crotale, SA-7 Grail, SA-9/SA-13 surface to air missiles, and AA guns in Army service. A separate Air Defence Command has SA-2, SA-3, SA-5 Gammon, and SA-8b Gecko, plus guns. Reported anti aircraft artillery includes Soviet 57 mm S-60, 23 mm self-propelled ZSU-23-4 and ZU-23-2, Czech M53/59 Praga, and Swedish Bofors 40mm guns.
Reported anti aircraft artillery includes Soviet 57 mm S-60, 23 mm self-propelled ZSU-23-4 and ZU-23-2, Czech M53/59 Praga, and Swedish Bofors 40mm guns.
These are, mostly, outdated Warsaw Pact era equipment, in suspect operating condition and not all that effect against modern aircraft. However, there is a lot of it and if enough junk is thrown into the sky they are bound to hit something, eventually. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
The former Libyan interior minister who defected to the opposition has denied returning to the government. Abdel Fatah Yunes told Al-Jazeera that he was still leading battlefield operations. Asked to comment on Libyan state TV pictures showing him embracing Colonel Gaddafi, he said: ''It is old footage. I'm sitting here in Benghazi.''
Sarkozy: "I will all measures to halt Marine Le Pen's advance in the polls & to ensure my own victory in next year's election"
Although didn't the rebels already admit it was their plane? Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
President Sarkozy says international leaders have agreed to use "all the necessary means - in particular, military means" to enforce the UN Security Council resolution.
President Sarkozy continues by saying it is a duty to support Arab people and counter the "murderous madness" in Libya
France is resolved to shoulder its role before history, the French president tells the news conference.
Going after Tripoli? Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
There are Gadaffi ground forces in and around the city of Zintan, close to the Tunisian/Libyan border.
Either one would be within the mission statement of the UN resolution. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi says that for now Italy is only providing bases for the Libya operation, following earlier reports that Italian aircraft had been involved in surveillance operations.
4:22pm: AFP reports that French planes are Rafale fighter jets, flying reconnaissance missions across "all Libyan territory", citing a military source.
French journalists reported that French fighter jets will begin their strike operations by targetting pro-Gaddafi tanks around Benghazi in order to send a message that they are breaking the siege.
President Nicolas Sarkozy announced Saturday that French jets have entered Libyan airspace after a crunch meeting of world leaders in Paris. French forces will be countering the attacks of Gaddafi's forces on Benghazi.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi says Italy is only providing bases for military intervention, contradicting previous Al Arabiya television reports that Italian planes had begun a surveillance mission in Libya.
Report: France jets strike Ajdabiyah
I live-tweeted Mo's stream last night until 1:30am. Then I went to bed. I feel so fucking selfish. I should have stayed up. If I'd known.... 24 minutes ago via TweetDeck And now I can't stop thinking, what if those French planes began to arrive 12 hours ago. Would Mo be alive now? I just don't know. 27 minutes ago via TweetDeck The saddest part is that French planes are over Benghazi now. Mo didn't live long enough to see his cries for help being answered. RIP, Mo. 35 minutes ago via TweetDeck And then an hour or so ago, his wife released this audio. http://bit.ly/ed4lx0 Absolutely heartbreaking, but she is so, so brave to do it. 36 minutes ago via TweetDeck For several hours we heard rumors that he had been shot but we didn't want to say anything until we knew for sure. 38 minutes ago via TweetDeck A few hours ago he went out to record some more audio and was caught in a firefight. Audio stops 6:30 into it. http://bit.ly/h4tphZ 38 minutes ago via TweetDeck "I'm not meant to die easily. Don't worry about that. I'm being saved for a bigger..." Mo said today on his stream, then changed the topic. 39 minutes ago via TweetDeck Mo recorded this video last month, which became a rallying cry for the world to intervene in Libya: http://youtu.be/UyIyz44oKQQ 40 minutes ago via TweetDeck Mohammad Nabbous was my primary contact in Libya, and the face of Libyan citizen journalism. And now he's dead, killed in a firefight. 41 minutes ago via TweetDeck Reuters: Sarkozy announces French planes are in the air to protect civilians in Benghazi. 42 minutes ago via TweetDeck Hi folks... I'm sorry I've been offline a couple of hours but I've been soaking up the news that Mo was killed today. Absolutely devastating about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck
PA reports that two US F-15 Strike Eagle ground attack jets have taken off from US Air Force base at Lakenheath, near Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk, in England.US planes took off from the same base in 1986 to bomb Libya.
So we are going to take "all necessary measures" to protect the civilians of Libya, are we? Pity we didn't think of that 42 years ago. Or 41 years ago. Or... well, you know the rest. And let's not be fooled by what the UN resolution really means. Yet again, it's going to be regime-change. And just as in Iraq - to use one of Tom Friedman's only memorable phrases of the time - when the latest dictator goes, who knows what kind of bats will come flying out of the box? And after Tunisia, after Egypt, it's got to be Libya, hasn't it? The Arabs of North Africa are demanding freedom, democracy, liberation from oppression. Yes, that's what they have in common. But what these nations also have in common is that it was us, the West, that nurtured their dictatorships decade after decade after decade. The French cuddled up to Ben Ali, the Americans stroked Mubarak, while the Italians groomed Gaddafi until our own glorious leader went to resurrect him from the political dead.Could this be, I wonder, why we have not heard from Lord Blair of Isfahan recently? Surely he should be up there, clapping his hands with glee at another humanitarian intervention. Perhaps he is just resting between parts. Or maybe, like the dragons in Spenser's Faerie Queen, he is quietly vomiting forth Catholic tracts with all the enthusiasm of a Gaddafi in full flow.
So we are going to take "all necessary measures" to protect the civilians of Libya, are we? Pity we didn't think of that 42 years ago. Or 41 years ago. Or... well, you know the rest. And let's not be fooled by what the UN resolution really means. Yet again, it's going to be regime-change. And just as in Iraq - to use one of Tom Friedman's only memorable phrases of the time - when the latest dictator goes, who knows what kind of bats will come flying out of the box?
And after Tunisia, after Egypt, it's got to be Libya, hasn't it? The Arabs of North Africa are demanding freedom, democracy, liberation from oppression. Yes, that's what they have in common. But what these nations also have in common is that it was us, the West, that nurtured their dictatorships decade after decade after decade. The French cuddled up to Ben Ali, the Americans stroked Mubarak, while the Italians groomed Gaddafi until our own glorious leader went to resurrect him from the political dead.
Could this be, I wonder, why we have not heard from Lord Blair of Isfahan recently? Surely he should be up there, clapping his hands with glee at another humanitarian intervention. Perhaps he is just resting between parts. Or maybe, like the dragons in Spenser's Faerie Queen, he is quietly vomiting forth Catholic tracts with all the enthusiasm of a Gaddafi in full flow.
If Obama and Clinton end up remembered for anything, giving the lie to the "cheese- eating surrender-monkey" jibe is now in the lead.
French defence ministry spokesman Laurent Teisseire told reporters: "A first target was engaged and destroyed." An armed forces spokesman told the same briefing the operation to halt Colonel Gaddafi's advance on rebel forces involved around 20 planes and an area 100 km by 150 km (60 by 100 miles) around the eastern rebel stronghold of Benghazi. France's Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier will leave France for Libya on Sunday, the spokesman added. A central command centre for the operation was still being set up.
1748: French aircraft have destroyed four Libyan tanks in air strikes to the south-west of Benghazi, Al-Jazeera television has reported.
Ouch. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
French media is reporting that Benghazi rebels admit they shot down their own plane today.
sigh She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
That's why these things can't be ad-hoc'ed. Command and Control needs to tight when you've got people armed to the teeth, tanked-up on adrenaline, making almost instant life and death decisions. Pilots who linger over a target area tend to be dead pilots. They need to get in & out as quickly as possible; thus, they have to rely on their controllers for "situational awareness" -- as it's known. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
innumerable replays of kaddaffi's demented railings are really getting old.
interesting how they couldn't use drones, since they're so happy to drop them on afpak.
even reagan's botched attempts on kaddaffi's family looks more humanitarian than the possible tarpit-occupation-in-the-making we're watching now. 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
surprised areva hadn't built any there yet, lol.
Nuke plants were supposedly sold to Libya (and trumpeted), but Gaddafi never signed the contracts.
Revolutionaries in [Zintan claim to] have destroyed a Gadaffi unit completely capturing all weapons and hardware
Now he has reinforced (?) mechanized (?) units stuck in the middle of nowhere, with little chance of reinforcement or logistic support. They have to be physically drained after yesterday's combat, last night's movement, and today's combat. They are very likely low on munitions and other combat supplies.
How many of the survive the night depends on how many planes the French and other air forces can put into the target area and how many those planes want to kill. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Over the last month, the standard pattern has been for the regime to attack using ground forces at first light and pull back at night. With no "front lines" keeping infantry and armor, in a city, at night, is dumb. (For a number of reasons.) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
If there are, and they aren't reinforced or withdrawn tomorrow, they aren't going to be militarily useful for very long. Armor in urban areas are extremely vulnerable to swarm tactics by motivated defenders. The revolutionaries lack many things, motivation is not one of them. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Even more important, the one thing that cannot happen is "collateral damage" on the people the NFZ is supposed to protect.
The best thing is to let the revolutionaries deal with Gadaffi forces inside the urban areas. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
and being a close ally of ours
oceania has always been at peace with insert country's name... 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
Somebody on the regime side has realized their armed forces are fucked unless they can get under cover, real quick. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
If they are in the tool box, why not? She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
France won the chance to show off the Rafale that no one wants to buy (too dear).
Just watched Juppé on the public TV main news. He said to the journalist, "If we hadn't done anything, you'd be asking me how much longer we were going to sit waiting." Journalist looks at him with a half-conniving half-mocking smile. Next to me someone I know well says: "No he wouldn't, because you wouldn't be in the studio."
Right.
Despite being earlier reported, Saudi Arabia's absence from the coalition against Gaddafi is quite intriguing. Background coming up.
Sultan Al Qassemi (SultanAlQassemi) on Twitter
In 2004 Gaddafi was accused of plotting to assassinate King Abdallah of Saudi (he was crown prince then). More info http://bit.ly/gt00Em
In 2009 Gaddafi told Saudi King Abdallah at an Arab Summit in Qatar "It has been proven whose past is a pack of lies & who is facing death"
It seems that Saudi is irked by two recent US political decisions, one is to put pressure on Mubarak resulting in his removal by the army.
Fox News reporting US submarines have launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The Tomahawk can carry 1,000 lbs (~450 kilos) payload, either a single warhead or sub-munitions. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Toss this is: the Charles de Gaulle has been ordered to sea and should be off the coast of Libya by tomorrow. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
So I guess you're right. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Now, that's interesting. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Houses in Tripoli 20 km away shook from US missile explosions
Targeted at taking down the "critical nodes" of Libyan air-defense systems to "shape the battlefield." She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Misurata was the home base for the Khamis Brigade. So there's bound to be all kinds of things lying around everybody would like to see unavailable to the regime. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
The Pentagon says that the UAE and Qatar will also be involved in military operations in Libya, but will announce their involvement themselves. The operation falls under the operational command of the US African Command, under General Carter Hamm. Tactical execution is being run out of the USS Mount Whitney, Admiral Sam Locklear commanding.Off the coast of Libya, there are: 11 vessels from Italy, 11 from the US (including three submarines, each with 100 missiles on board), one from the UK, one from France and one from Canada.The no-fly zone will encompass Tripoli, Sabha, Natoura, Misurata and Benghazi.
The Pentagon says that the UAE and Qatar will also be involved in military operations in Libya, but will announce their involvement themselves.
The operation falls under the operational command of the US African Command, under General Carter Hamm. Tactical execution is being run out of the USS Mount Whitney, Admiral Sam Locklear commanding.
Off the coast of Libya, there are: 11 vessels from Italy, 11 from the US (including three submarines, each with 100 missiles on board), one from the UK, one from France and one from Canada.
The no-fly zone will encompass Tripoli, Sabha, Natoura, Misurata and Benghazi.
AFP reports that Libyan state television reports that a French aircraft has been shot down over Libya. There is no independent confirmation of this claim yet.
Reuters reports that four Spanish F-18 fighters have taken off from Madrid as part of the UN coalition.
(Available, in quantity, at the nearest military hardware show near you.) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
I'm quite ashamed actually, and have lost any trust I might have hade in the foreign policy acumen of PM Reinfeldt and FM Bildt. Quite frankly, I'm pissed off. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
almost too good to be true, probably low casualties since for a change they're on the side of the people...this was such a sudden and transparently expedient switch, no one can be fooled into thinking they can't talk out of both sides of their mouths.
they might really throw flowers this time!
seriously, what's going to cool the powerplays and tribal factionalism after kaddaffi's gone?
halliburton and private security? 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
i get it, america can't use drones because europe doesn't have them, so it will be obvious they're spearheading this little um, skirmish.
replay the falklands with more bells on?
let's hope not, and the stated humanitarian claims are more authentic than saving the iraquis from their brutal dictator.
it's a gamble, going in militarily, will the gambler know when to stop?
or will the temptation to prop them up until they all get purple thumbs and such be too seductive? 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
No confirmation. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
11:06pm Four Al Jazeera journalists have been detained by Libyan authorities in the west of the country.Lotfi al-Messaoudi (a Tunisian), Ahmed Vall Ould Addin (a Mauritanian), Ammar al-Hamdan (a Norwegian cameraman) and Kamel Atalua (British) were held while working in the west of the country.Al Jazeera says that the Libyan authorities will be held accountable for the safety, security and well-being of the team, who are being held in Tripoli.
Four Al Jazeera journalists have been detained by Libyan authorities in the west of the country.
Lotfi al-Messaoudi (a Tunisian), Ahmed Vall Ould Addin (a Mauritanian), Ammar al-Hamdan (a Norwegian cameraman) and Kamel Atalua (British) were held while working in the west of the country.
Al Jazeera says that the Libyan authorities will be held accountable for the safety, security and well-being of the team, who are being held in Tripoli.
Al Jazeera says that the Libyan authorities will be held accountable for the safety, security and well-being of the team, who are being held in Tripoli
Wut? Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Col Bob Stewart, the former United Nations commander in Bosnia, observes that resolution 1973 mandates "all necessary measures" to protect civilians. But doing this, he tells the BBC, may necessitate regime change. "The best defence for the people of Libya is for Gaddafi to go," he adds.
? She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
jonathanshainin Jonathan Shainin I hope Sarkozy doesn't plan to pay back all his campaign contributors like this.
Source says that Gaddafi attempted suicide and doctors are trying to resuscitate him. He says he has footage and trying to pass it across.
The only reason I passed it along is because the guy has been the most reliable source I've found. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Or won't that happen until his assets in Switzerland have been frozen?
It's more-or-less a rumor, at the moment. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
No confirmation or evidence to back this up.
May be mis-information and/or wishful thinking. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Let's not get carried away. This is a new source I just got introduced to. I can't vouch for him, but he says he's confident. Let's see.
h'mmm.
Me doubts have jumped to 11. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
here She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
ALL, yes ALL Gaddafi forces in ZINTAN have joined the Feb17 revolution, Zintan now fully armed and ready
Who would you choose? Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
But I'm 'engaged' on the part of the revolution so ... wishful thinking & all that. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
The Libyan government has demanded an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, the AFP news agency reports.
05:29 Abdel, a doctor in the town of Misrata, Libya, about 200km east of Tripoli, tells BBC World television that Gaddafi loyalists have been moving the bodies of people killed in clashes between rebels and government forces to sites that have been bombed by the coalition to make it appear they have died in the strikes.
Quick News: "Reports of people being kidnapped to be used as human shields." "Bab Al-Aziziyah reported to be "crawling with people" "Foreign journalists brought to Bab Al-Aziziyah" (Bab Al-Aziziyah is Gadaffi's main military base and headquarters.)
Libyan state television cites a senior security source as saying that Libya has decided to "absolve itself from taking responsibility for stemming illegal immigration to Europe".
...approves. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
They said they would not be "repnosible" for stemming illegal immigration. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
no one's mentioning WMD... do they know where daffy stores his nerve gas supplies?
increased air activity over central italy, though less than during the bosni kosovo times.
who sold him his nerve gas, also? 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
From Steven Erlanger and David D. Kirkpatrick, the New York Times: Even though the leaders at the Paris summit meeting were united in supporting military action, there were signs of disagreement over how it would proceed. Two senior Western diplomats said the Paris meeting, which was organized by [French President Nicolas] Sarkozy, may actually have delayed allied operations to stop Colonel [Muammar] Qaddafi's troops as they were approaching Benghazi. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on the matter. The initial French air sorties, which were not coordinated with other countries, angered some of the countries gathered at the summit meeting, according to a senior NATO-country diplomat. Information about the movement of Qaddafi troops toward Benghazi had been clear on Friday, but France blocked any NATO agreement on airstrikes until the Paris meeting, the diplomat said, suggesting that overflights could have begun Friday night before Mr. Qaddafi's troops reached the city.
From Steven Erlanger and David D. Kirkpatrick, the New York Times: Even though the leaders at the Paris summit meeting were united in supporting military action, there were signs of disagreement over how it would proceed.
Two senior Western diplomats said the Paris meeting, which was organized by [French President Nicolas] Sarkozy, may actually have delayed allied operations to stop Colonel [Muammar] Qaddafi's troops as they were approaching Benghazi. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on the matter.
The initial French air sorties, which were not coordinated with other countries, angered some of the countries gathered at the summit meeting, according to a senior NATO-country diplomat. Information about the movement of Qaddafi troops toward Benghazi had been clear on Friday, but France blocked any NATO agreement on airstrikes until the Paris meeting, the diplomat said, suggesting that overflights could have begun Friday night before Mr. Qaddafi's troops reached the city.
Excerpts of letters Moammar Gadhafi sent to President Barack Obama and others involved in the international coalition supporting the uprising against him:
Actually a surprising number of military actions sound like lapdancers. 'Hi, I'm Desert Fox,' etc.
Anybody got any idea?
(Going AFC. Herself is finishing cooking dinner and setting off every smoke alarm in the house while about it.) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Looking at the news, I remarked 'oh my god, we're at war' before hastily correcting myself to, 'oh my god, we're at more war'
A spokesman for the UK's Chief of Defence Staff says the Royal Air Force has "participated in a co-ordinated strike against Libyan Air Defence systems". "In addition to the Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM) launched from a Trafalgar Class submarine, I can now confirm that the RAF has also launched Stormshadow missiles from a number of Tornado GR4 fast jets, which flew direct from RAF Marham as part of a coordinated coalition plan to enforce the resolution," a statement adds.
The British fast jets flew 4,828km (3,000 miles) from RAF Marham and back - the longest range bombing mission conducted by the RAF since the Falklands conflict, according to the Ministry of Defence. The operation was supported by VC10 and Tristar air-to-air refuelling aircraft as well as E3D Sentry and Sentinel surveillance aircraft
Someone on this blog had explained that the Lebanon had been decisive in the support of the military intervention by the Arab League because they wanted to settle some earlier conflict.
Mission accomplished. ---
CAIRO -- With his brutal military assault on civilians, and his rantings about spiked Nescafé, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi handed many leaders across the Arab world what had otherwise eluded them: A chance to side with the people while deflecting attention from their own citizens' call for democracy, political analysts around the region said. And they really do not like him. Even Arab leaders most critical of the United States' intervention in the Middle East have reluctantly united behind the military intervention in Libya. That has given a boost to Arab leaders in places like Saudi Arabia who are at the same moment working to silence political opposition in their backyards. "The Arab street reaction to the Western attacks on Libya has been warm," said Hilal Khasan, chairman of the department of political studies at American University of Beirut. "This is not Iraq." .... "I see hypocrisy in everything the Arab leaders do, and I'm talking as a person of the Arab world," said Randa Habib, a political commentator in Jordan. "I wanted them to take such a decision. There were too many people being killed in Libya. That man is cuckoo." This new and unpredictable tone seemed to partly explain the flip-flopping of Amr Moussa, the longtime secretary general of the Arab League who plans to run for the Egyptian presidency. Last week, the Arab League asked the United Nations to impose a no-fly zone in Libya, largely on humanitarian grounds. On Sunday, Mr. Moussa said military action there had gone too far. But he repeated his contention that the no-fly zone could not have been imposed were it not for the Arab League.
Even Arab leaders most critical of the United States' intervention in the Middle East have reluctantly united behind the military intervention in Libya. That has given a boost to Arab leaders in places like Saudi Arabia who are at the same moment working to silence political opposition in their backyards.
"The Arab street reaction to the Western attacks on Libya has been warm," said Hilal Khasan, chairman of the department of political studies at American University of Beirut. "This is not Iraq."
....
"I see hypocrisy in everything the Arab leaders do, and I'm talking as a person of the Arab world," said Randa Habib, a political commentator in Jordan. "I wanted them to take such a decision. There were too many people being killed in Libya. That man is cuckoo."
This new and unpredictable tone seemed to partly explain the flip-flopping of Amr Moussa, the longtime secretary general of the Arab League who plans to run for the Egyptian presidency. Last week, the Arab League asked the United Nations to impose a no-fly zone in Libya, largely on humanitarian grounds. On Sunday, Mr. Moussa said military action there had gone too far. But he repeated his contention that the no-fly zone could not have been imposed were it not for the Arab League.
But concern about popular reaction forced Mousa to back off that position and re-state the Arab League's support for the NFZ. His new ambitions force him to be concerned about popular opinion.
"In a way, the Arab League is trying to follow the sentiment of the Arab street," said Shafeeq Ghabra, a political science professor at Kuwait University. "The street is now more in control. If we ever had an Arab street, this is the moment." Many experts noted that that was itself a remarkable turn of events, given that the league had long been a special-interest group for the very leaders who had been pressed by their people to allow democratic change. At the very moment of the vote, some of those leaders were repressing their own citizens' calls for that change, especially in the Persian Gulf, where Saudi troops rolled into Bahrain to help crush a popular uprising.
Many experts noted that that was itself a remarkable turn of events, given that the league had long been a special-interest group for the very leaders who had been pressed by their people to allow democratic change. At the very moment of the vote, some of those leaders were repressing their own citizens' calls for that change, especially in the Persian Gulf, where Saudi troops rolled into Bahrain to help crush a popular uprising.
The article notes that much of this has to do with Gadaffi personally and his relation with other Arab leaders:
There is arguably no Arab leader besides Colonel Qaddafi who might have been able to unite much of the region against him all at once -- though Algeria and Syria did not agree with the no-fly zone -- and empower the much-maligned Arab League, which is an institution often mocked by Arab commentators for failing to carry out its pronouncements. It was clear that those backing the no-fly zone, the analysts said, especially the king of Saudi Arabia and the emir of Qatar, most likely drew personal satisfaction from the effort to push Colonel Qaddafi from power, though they did not say so. "This is not related actually to Qaddafi's attitude to his people or the way he is ruling Libya," Mr. Masry said. "It is related to his attitude. He was very unpredictable." Saudi animosity runs deep. In 2004, Colonel Qaddafi was accused of being directly involved in a plot to assassinate King Abdullah, who was then the crown prince. Then in 2009, Colonel Qaddafi embarrassed the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and infuriated King Abdullah, during an Arab summit meeting in Doha, Qatar. Colonel Qaddafi first denounced King Abdullah "as a British product and American ally," concluding by calling him a "liar." When Sheikh Hamad tried to quiet him, he said, "I am an international leader, the dean of Arab rulers, the king of kings of Africa and imam of Muslims, and my international status does not allow me to descend to a lower level." At that point the sound was cut on the television broadcast and Colonel Qaddafi stormed out of the room, leaving a memory that surely made it easier for those leaders to endorse the no-fly zone, political analysts said.
"This is not related actually to Qaddafi's attitude to his people or the way he is ruling Libya," Mr. Masry said. "It is related to his attitude. He was very unpredictable."
Saudi animosity runs deep. In 2004, Colonel Qaddafi was accused of being directly involved in a plot to assassinate King Abdullah, who was then the crown prince. Then in 2009, Colonel Qaddafi embarrassed the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and infuriated King Abdullah, during an Arab summit meeting in Doha, Qatar.
Colonel Qaddafi first denounced King Abdullah "as a British product and American ally," concluding by calling him a "liar." When Sheikh Hamad tried to quiet him, he said, "I am an international leader, the dean of Arab rulers, the king of kings of Africa and imam of Muslims, and my international status does not allow me to descend to a lower level."
At that point the sound was cut on the television broadcast and Colonel Qaddafi stormed out of the room, leaving a memory that surely made it easier for those leaders to endorse the no-fly zone, political analysts said.
As for the rest of the uncertainties posed by the imposition of the NFZ and the ground attacks, nothing in life is certain. If Gadaffi manages to survive or if a new government runs amok, at least The West did what it could and did not stand by and allow a massacre when it had relatively low cost options to prevent it. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
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