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On to Portugal!

by Colman Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 09:11:57 AM EST

Edward of A Fistful of Euros explains why Portugal is likely to need a second bailout in a long, detailed post.

Basically, the current plan was declared on-track after some accounting sleight of hand and the odds of them being able to go back to the markets anytime soon are minimal. Obviously, since the reform programme is busily destroying the economy their growth rates aren't likely to be anywhere near the optimistic level required by the cunning plan.

The current plan for the EU can't work, and the alternatives are in the process of being turned into thought crimes. What fun.


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So action will need to be taken, and realism does need to come back into policymaking. Maybe it sounds good to say that Portugal's programme is on track, but it only got back on track after 1.9% of GDP was paid over from the pension fund. Implementation risks may be less in Portugal than in Greece, but that isn't saying much, and they are certainly considerably higher than "non negligible". Also, and as I keep saying time and again, the risk to this whole LTRO funded slow-debt-dialysis on the periphery is most certainly a political one - one of populations being "driven mad" by all the austerity and lack of hope (think Hungary).
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 09:15:24 AM EST
I'm generally amazed at how Greeks are called liars and cheats whereas you go back through the last 10 years and there are often huge accounting shenanigans like this 1.9% move that are simply ignored (wink, wink) by so many. There are at many instances where this has been done, and the amounts far exceed the Greece/Goldman deal which was relatively small (certainly smaller than this 1.9%).

One should hope that the EU cuts Spain and Portugal a break here because there is a different dynamic at work. Portugal has high private debt credited mostly from Spanish banks. There's a great deal of interplay between these two countries and their banking systems. Severe austerity cuts here means you can bring down two countries, whereas the Greek banking system was relatively isolated to Greece, the Balkans and Turkey. Only France and Germany had a considerable amount credited to Greece, two big countries whose banks absorbed the debt and/or were bailed out.

The dynamic is certainly different in Portugal.

by Upstate NY on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 09:28:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yanis Varoufakis: CAUTERISE AND PRINT: GERMANY'S NEWEST PLAN A
The detail not yet `worked out' concerns the identity of the countries to be shown the door. The consensus opinion in Frankfurt was that Greece and Portugal are certainties. Few expressed the view that Portugal is too close to Spain to cauterise effectively while others went against the grain of majority opinion suggesting that Ireland ought to be liberated too. My impression is that, current thinking, has settled on Greece and Portugal, with a questionmark over Ireland.

...

The key to this new Plan, and the optimism it has inspired within Germany's financial community, is twofold: First, it shows that Germany is certainly unwilling to re-design the eurozone's flawed architecture, in view of its revealed preference for, God forbid, inflation over the institution of a surplus recycling mechanism plus a unification of the eurozone's banking system. Secondly, it suggests that Germany is not yet ready to ditch France.

This second point is crucial. My German sources acknowledged that France is not up to Germany's strict standards as a monetary union partner. They consider France to be a chronic laggard, a fundamentally deficit-oriented economy, a state whose ambition constantly, and irritatingly, overreaches its potential. But they feel that there is a political need to give the eurozone, i.e. the Franco-German axis, one last chance. France is, therefore, still tolerated. And with it Spain and Italy will also be given another chance, courtesy of as many LTROs (i.e. oodles of ECB-printed money for Italo-Spanish banks) as it takes.

Just wait until Hollande beats Sarko...

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 09:38:11 AM EST
It looks like Germany is trying to solve the federalisation problem by kicking out every country that is NotGermany.

I suppose it's a solution of sorts.

I think perhaps all the other countries need to start talking around Germany to form a common NotGermany economic pact.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 10:03:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Southern Euro approach I have suggested would do just that. Start with the most abused - Greece, Ireland, Portugal + ? Form a currency union with recycling mechanisms, even if it is largely symbolic at present, but create your own Seuro as required for these countries. That would create another pole of attraction and enable the emergency of a sane currency union as other, larger countries joined. Currently they are between a rock and a hard place. This would eliminate one of those hard boundaries and facilitate the reemergence of economic activity.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 10:22:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Been tried before
The LMU eventually failed for a number of reasons. Some members, notably the Papal State's treasurer, Giacomo Cardinal Antonelli, began to debase their currency. This meant he minted coins with an inadequate amount of silver and then exchanged them for coins from other countries that had been minted correctly. More importantly, because new discoveries and better refining techniques increased the supply of silver, the fixed LMU exchange rate eventually overvalued silver relative to gold. German traders, in particular, were known to bring silver to LMU countries, have it minted into coinage then exchanged those for gold coins at the discounted exchange rate. These destabilizing tactics eventually forced the LMU to convert to a pure gold standard for its currency (in 1878).

According to Financial Times, another major problem of the LMU was that it failed to outlaw the printing of paper money based on the bimetallic currency. A weakness which was exploited by France and Italy that printed banknotes to fund their own endeavours, effectively "forcing other members of the union to bear some of the cost of its fiscal extravagance by issuing notes backed by their currency". Greece also caused problems. According to the BBC, "its chronically weak economy meant successive Greek governments responded by decreasing the amount of gold in their coins, thereby debasing their currency in relation to those of other nations in the union and in violation of the original agreement". Greece was formally expelled from the Latin Monetary Union in 1908. It was readmitted in 1910, however.

Even though the minting of new silver coinage ceased, the existing silver coins continued in circulation, and the fluctuations in the values of gold and silver were somewhat of a nuisance. The political turbulence of the early twentieth century which culminated in the First World War, brought the Latin Monetary Union to its final end in practice, even though it continued 'de jure' until 1927, when it came to a formal end.

Nowadays we know better than to use metallic standard money, or maybe not (the Eurozone's attempt at replicating the Gold Standard with fiat money is a counterexample). The serious people would demand a serious currency, which would be almost guaranteed to fail.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 10:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to Financial Times, another major problem of the LMU was that it failed to outlaw the printing of paper money based on the bimetallic currency. A weakness which was exploited by France and Italy that printed banknotes to fund their own endeavours, effectively "forcing other members of the union to bear some of the cost of its fiscal extravagance by issuing notes backed by their currency".

Um, duh.

Money is prepaid taxes. The jurisdiction of the monetary and tax authorities must therefore coincide. Otherwise, one member gets to effectively tax other members' populations.

An adequate supply of money being essential to the operation of modern society, it is also necessary that there exists a spender of last resort. Who must, of necessity, also coincide with the tax and monetary authority. This is the only way the spender of last resort can be definitionally solvent. Which is a requirement for being spender of last resort.

None of this should be difficult to grasp, and yet the Serious People keep failing to.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 10:55:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What I have in mind is a currency union that would give the members, collectively, more economic weight, that would allow the members, individually, to create sufficient money to provide full employment. This would only work were the purposes to which that money so created were put projects that would create or provide economic value and the ability to generate additional value. The means by which that decision is made seems the most crucial, analogous to underwriting by a bank.

My sense is that the union would work provided all of the members engaged in sound underwriting practices in their fiscal policies. Value and sustainability would have to become equal in weight to return on investment and pure financial plays that create only profits for private individuals would have to be left to private individuals who could not expect to be bailed out by the state for their failures and who could be expected to be taxed on their profits. And the role of corporations and other collective organizations in politics would have to be carefully controlled.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 04:31:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That system would probably have to be run at the supranational level (but we already have the European Investment Bank model), and in any case it appears rather vulnerable to capture by special interest.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 04:47:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Avoiding capture is now the most fundamental design criterion for any government that would act in the interests of a significant majority of its citizens. But first a significant majority of citizens must realize this requirement and know it in their bones. My sense, from talking to people locally, is that we are getting closer in the USA.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 04:52:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I first read "That system would probably have to be run at the supernatural level..." !!  I thought you must really hate the idea.  :-)

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 04:54:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That system would probably have to be run at the supranational level...

It would seem that a new supranational organization would be required to administer such a system. That organization would have to have the authority to implement the redistribution required and the responsibility to insure that the means chosen for this purpose fairly served the interests of all members. Requirements for this and responsibility to avoid capture by private interests probably should reside in different groups. The guiding principle in assembling such a system would have to be that all of the means to accomplish the purpose and to insure the integrity of the process would have to be in place and written into binding treaties BEFORE the system is implemented. If a potential member rejects to what others agreed is essential, they would be ineligible.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 11:17:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure we don't have the institutions already with the combination of the ECB, Commission and European Investment Bank.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2012 at 04:50:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The institutions - possibly. The process and means to insure they serve the interests of  the vast preponderance of the citizens - hardly.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2012 at 12:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What would be the purpose of a common Southern currency, that could not be equally well achieved by a common industrial policy framework under the enhanced cooperation rules?

The jurisdiction of a currency union should coincide with the jurisdiction of the dominant macroeconomic planning unit. What pressing need does any of these countries have to relegate macroeconomic planning to some supranational entity? And if such a pressing need exists, then one could argue that this supranational system should be set up prior to establishing a common currency - it is much easier to run a supranational industrial policy scheme without a common currency than the other way around.

Making currency unions just for shit and giggles is really not a good idea. I would have thought that the €-Mark would provide a quite arresting and compelling demonstration of this point.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2012 at 10:08:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, no, political shows of unity!

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2012 at 11:45:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What would be the purpose of a common Southern currency, that could not be equally well achieved by a common industrial policy framework under the enhanced cooperation rules?

The purpose would be the same as the purpose so many believed the EMU would serve, but which has, instead, been so massively subverted due to the weaknesses that were optimistically but foolishly ignored at the time of its creation - to get the real thing, not its evil twin.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2012 at 12:37:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is not totally obvious to me what the purpose of the EMU is.

Or rather, it is not totally obvious to me what purpose the EMU has that I support.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Mar 15th, 2012 at 10:59:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Southern Euro approach I have suggested would do just that. Start with the most abused - Greece, Ireland, Portugal + ?

Impossible.

The well has been poisoned. Two years have gone by since the beginning of this fake crisis and NOT ONCE did the leaders of these countries meet.

by Euroliberal on Wed Mar 14th, 2012 at 06:55:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See Sócrates and Zapatero leave PES for EPP by Luis de Sousa on March 5th, 2011
We finally seem to have some coordinated effort from the PES to tackle the crisis. The socialist family has gathered in Greece to present an alternative path to the austerity-rules-all course imposed by the conservatives. They lure to have a thorough answer to the new economic governance rules proposed by Merkel and Sarkozy, now being refined to be voted by the Council later this month. Shy to some extent, it nevertheless points to the obvious building blocs needed to both deal with the crisis and reinforce the Union. The creation of an European Treasury, the creation of an European tax, even the reference to the needed structural paradigm change to build an Economy for the XXI century, all of it seems to be considered by the PES leaders.

The meeting is even more important for another reason, by displaying this unity the socialists are sending their citizens a clear message, the blind austerity is not being imposed by the Union, but by the conservatives that at the moment rule the Union. Merkel, Sarkozy, von Rampuy, Barroso, are all members of the EPP; the apathetic servitude to American rating agencies, the blind pursue of a stronger than steel €uro, it's their course, not of Europe itself.

Unfortunately, two socialist leaders missed the meeting: Zapatero and Sócrates. They don't seem to be interested in an alternative to the conservatives' policy. They are now themselves conservatives.

The only game in town is to be first in class in the eyes of Headmisstress Merkel. And France is not Italy is not Spain is not Portugal is not Ireland is not Greece.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2012 at 07:07:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany is certainly unwilling to re-design the eurozone's flawed architecture, in view of its revealed preference for, God forbid, inflation over the institution of a surplus recycling mechanism plus a unification of the eurozone's banking system.

Michael Hudson noted that where you find methodological madness there is always private interest at work. Just whose private interest is at work in insane approach to the euro crisis.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 10:12:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Uh. Just whose private interest is at work in insane approach to the euro crisis seems on display here.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 10:13:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the question we need to start answering here on ET is what does the endgame look like?

How long will Germany kick the can down the road before kicking Greece out? (And then Portugal? And potentially Ireland?)

And what, realistically, will be the impact of kicking Greece out? And will kicking Portugal actually affect Spain more than the proponents expect?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 12:19:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the end result might be something like this.

Greece leaves or is kicked out. The place is pretty small, peripheral and (unlike Spain) has badly mismanaged its fiscal policies, even before the crisis.

Portugal is even smaller and just as peripheral. They might leave as well, or they might stay, depending on how much pain they think euro membership is worth.

The same points apply for Ireland.

Italy is not really a problem as the country has a primary surplus, that is, they will make it as long as they get to roll over their loans cheaply. The ECB will make sure this happens via LTRO.

Spain is really the big problem. It's too big to bail out and too big to lose, with far too big collateral damage if they crash and burn. In the end, I think the Germans will buckle and deliver some Rube Goldbergian solution which will stimulate the Spanish economy while saving face for Berlin.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 12:52:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You obviously agree with the Frankfurt view as reported by Varoufakis: that it is possible to ringfence Portugal thereby protecting Spain.
Few expressed the view that Portugal is too close to Spain to cauterise effectively while others went against the grain of majority opinion suggesting that Ireland ought to be liberated too.

...

My Frankfurt interlocutors, upon being challenged on the realism of containment following the traumatic events which will undoubtedly follow the severing of `gangrenous limbs', admitted that cauterisation would cost trillions and would involve unremitting money-printing by the ECB. In their view, the ECB would have to attempt: (a) to keep afloat the banks of Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Germany and Holland, and (b) to smooth the severed countries' tortuous path to oblivion (by keeping at least some banks functional during the tumult that will surely follow).

Varoufakis respectfully disagrees:
When will this Plan come out of the shadows and be discussed in public? After Mr Sarkozy, on whom Mrs Merkel has invested much, wins the French Presidential election, was the answer I was given. Then, Germany will `suddenly' realise that the impossible conditions the Greek government pretended to accept have not been met. And then the ball will start rolling. Tragically, it will keep rolling well past the point willed by Berlin and Frankfurt. Even if contagion is initially arrested by Super Mario, the deeper causes of the eurozone's current troubles will continue to work unimpeded and, before too long, Germany will realise that the amputations must go on until all is left attached to its economy are the rest of the surplus countries. Then, just like it has now accepted inflation as the price to pay for implementing this New Plan A, Germany will accept the need for deep deflation, following the loss of export markets, that will come as part and parcel of the next-next Plan: of ditching France.


There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 01:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly, and I have been making the point for a year that every country that gets kicked out only creates a new 'sick man' that will need to follow. That is why a different union run on more sensible lines is needed as a destination for those who are successively ejected. At some point countries would opt to leave the Euro and join the Seuro rather than waiting to be kicked out. If run along sane lines it would become increasingly attractive, developing into what the EMU could have become had there not been so much self serving intransigence.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 04:38:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with the analysis about what's going to happen, but I don't agree it's a good idea. Eventually, we're going to have to draw a line in the sand, say, "this far, but no further". I don't see what rational reason there is to sacrifice several nations before we draw the line, when we might just as well draw it here and now, or two years ago. It would even have been cheaper.

But political reality stands in the way of rational policy making. This is neither the first not the last time that happens.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 06:50:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see what rational reason there is to sacrifice several nations before we draw the line, when we might just as well draw it here and now, or two years ago.

Moral hazard, and sinners needing to be punished.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 07:24:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Moral hazard can be managed in other more reasonable ways.

Not to mention that the current solution means that massive moral hazard is actually promoted, as all the stupid banks that lent money to Greece were allowed to dump the bonds on the public purse.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 07:31:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was, of course, joking.

Appeals to moral hazard are transparent excuses for politically motivated positions.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 07:55:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who knows what Germany will do then...    

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 12:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"I don't agree that Spain should go through excessive and stupid consolidation that puts it in a more difficult situation than it already is, but on the other hand Spain is the fourth- largest economy of the euro zone and as such it cannot take total leave from the promises it has made," Juncker said.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/03/13/bloomberg_articlesM0SODU0YHQ0X01-M0TQX.D TL

"Austerity measures are stupid," Juncker.

by Upstate NY on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 01:35:58 PM EST
"Austerity measures are stupid but promises are promises and we have to worry about our credibility, so we're imposing austerity, warts and all".

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 01:38:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You know what's best here?

Zapatero of the PES is the one who made the stupid promises on behalf of Spain.

Narrative game, set and match for the EPP.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 01:42:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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