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Greece election day II - Election diary and info

by talos Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:38:20 AM EST

So the elections are underway in Greece, and no one has a clue of the result...
Polls have been very ineffective in gauging public sentiment in these elections and pollsters are much less certain of their numbers than they were in previous elections. This is because a tectonic shift in attitudes has occurred in the Greek electorate, a new social and economic era, driven by the IMF/ECB disaster that has reorganized society creating new alliences, hopes and fears. Plus a huge number of citizens refuse to cooperate with the pollsters anyway.

So we're voting today in Greece without having even a broad idea of the result. There are a few things that are expected, but not certain:

  • No party will be able to govern by itself
  • The sum of the percentages of the two mainstream parties that have monopolized government will be at a historical low. The conservatives will be less affected than the "socialists", but are expected to suffer serious losses from their 2009 33% result (a historical low at the time as well). The socialists will be celebrating if they only lose half of their 2009 electoral percentage of 44%.  
  • Given the outrageous 50 seat bonus (in a 300 seat parliament) the two parties (in the worst case scenario with the help of minor parties of the neolib right mostly) are expected to form a government, even a weak government
  • The left is expected to reach a historical record. Of the parties of the left SYRIZA, is expected to have the most impressive result
  • The "old parties" keep their strength among the elderly.
  • A good result for the left would be an inability by pro-austerity forces to form a stable government
  • Despite earlier assumptions, participation in these elections will probably be higher, not lower than that in the previous election


Some notes on the parties:

  • New Democracy: Conservative. EPP party with a right-wing nationalist at its helm making overtures to the extreme right. They were shoo-ins for winning the elections till they agreed to participate in a coalition government under Papademos and voted for the PSI agreement and the even harsher austerity measures that accompanied it. They did that under extreme pressure from the European right, which certainlt wasn't considering the long-term when they did that. Their pre-election rallies were well beyond par in terms of participation. They will be blissful if the approach or surpass 30%, seem more likely to get 24-27%, will have serious prblems if they fall under 23%. They are losing to their extreme right and to the anti-troika populist right. They will renegotiate the terms of the agreement of course. Despite having signed them off a couple of months ago.

  • PASOK. A former socialist party in disgrace. Seen as the architects of austerity. They have had problems organizing rallies arund Greece as very few people showed up expect to boo and denounce them. Still they are possibly string in the 60+ age group. They are losing voters all over the place, mostly, but not solely to the left. Anything over 20% (they had 44% in 2009) will be greeted with relief and joy by Venizelos. Anything under 16% as a disaster, especially if they lose second place as rumoured possible. They are campaigning on a "we will leave the memorandum in 3 years platform". Give them a couple of months and they will become anti-troika to the bone...

  • SYRIZA. A party of the European Left (GUE - NGL). They do have a very strong dynamic coming into the elections since they are the only party of the left since the Civil War who has explicitly stated that it is asking for government not just a good showing as opposition putting pressure on the other parties of the left to commit to a left electoral alliance the next day. It is unclear what the current numbers are for SYRIZA (2009, 4,6%) but anything over 13% is a triumph, anything in double digits good, and below that a disaster. Risks succumbing to the Melenchon effect, of inflated expectations causing disappointment as party members seem way too confident of a very strong showing than is reasonable IMHO

  • KKE. The stalinist communist party, a league of its own. Very string among the poorest menial workers and a bastion of union activism. It is not interested in joining any government as the problems Greece is having cannot be solved under capitalism. Period. There is pressure from its electoral base, but these guys are not known for their political flexibility. Anything over 11% is a triumph for the party, anything below 9 a defeat (7,5% in 2009)

  • LAOS. Far right party with populist tones, xenophobic and reactinary. Originally supported the IMF / troika austerity and took part in the Papademos government but flip-flopped on the PSI issue so many times that it has lost credibility among its voters who are leaving it either for ND, or to its right the Nazi party, Chryssi Avgi. If they enter parliament they will throw a party. If they don't they will disintegrate (2009, 5,6%)

  • Chryssi Avgi (Golden Dawn) Nazis. See previous diary. They are strong in cities and among the unemployed youth. They are trying to rebrand as a "Nationalist" party. Their campaign in areas which had suffered Nazi atrocities was not warm. Yet they might pass 6% of the vote. They will be happy to enter parliament however and its likely that they will, thus becoming the first nazi party to enter a European parliament after WWII. (2009, 0.29%)

  • Anexartiti Ellines. Populist, anti-troika right. A splinter off ND, that left under Panos Kammenos its leader when New Democracy supported the Papademos government and voted for the second memorandum. String among the impoverished electoral base of the right, has attracted a not insignificant part of the ND cadres and some from PASOK, despite (?) the fact that their leader is a conspiracy theorist and a clown. Will be happy with anything over 9%. Anything lower than 5% will be a defeat.

  • Democratic Left: A splinter off of SYRIZA's main party Synaspismos, anti-troika but on a "realist" platform of limited renegotiation of some parts of the memorandum. Started off impressively at opinion polls, reaching 16%, but lack of a clear political identity has resulted in a quick deflation. Might be a partner in any sort of coalition from either the left or the right. Will be very content with anything over 7%, Ok with !5-7%.

  • Democratiki Symmakhia (democratic alliance): One of the three (!) small parties vying for the libertarian- neoliberal vote. Headed by Dora bakoyianni former Foreign Minister and daughter of former Prime Minister Kostantinos Mitsotakis, it is a pro-memorandum splinter of ND, that supported PASOK and the troika from day one. They are one of the crutches that the two parties can use if they can't form a government by themselves. If she enters parliament. If she doesn't make it to parliament the party will be annihilated. Has a strong clientilist base in Crete.

  • Drasi - Liberal Alliance: Headed by troika interlocutor Stephanos Manos, it is the hard-core neoliberal party. Might win the intra-liberal war, and just might, make it to parliament. In which case Manos might end up as a Prime Minister in a coalition government

  • Ecologist - Greens: A European Green party. Decidedly anti memorandum, that could make it to parliament despite the surge of the other left parties. They will be delighted with anything over 4% But making it into Greek parliament for the first time would probably be OK (2,5% 2009). These are IMHO Good Greens like the French, not like the German Greens, and I hope they make it to parliament, not least because they were the only party to respond positively to the propsal for a left government, albeit tentatively.

  • ANTARSYA. Anticapitalist left. Think somewhere between Besancenot and LO, but with a former Stalinist part as well. They will probably pass the 1% limit for the first time ever for a grouping of the extreme left in Greece. Anything over 2% would be a triumph though...

Plus an assortment of smaller parties, on both sides of the austerity issue...

For broader context and the possibilities of a strong showing for the left see Costas Douzinas' "Towards a European Spring" originally in the Guardian:

The tectonic plates of Greek society and politics are moving. This is the first time a radical left government is seriously on the cards in Europe. The many thousands who filled Syntagma and the other squares last year were a leaderless movement without party or ommon ideology. Seasoned trade-unionists and militants alongside the first-time dissidents and protesters of the occupations changed the definition of politics. They now have the chance to supplement their version of direct democracy and social solidarity with strong parliamentary representation. The collapse of the bipolar political elite will lead up to six new and splinter parties to Parliament. But the stake of the elections is the long-term redrawing of the political map with the left replacing PASOK. Post-civil war Greece exiled, imprisoned and persecuted the left confining its parties to symbolic and ineffective opposition. This divide is now coming to an end as a multi-color hegemonic bloc combining the defence of life, democracy and independence brings together people who historically found themselves on opposing sides. As the anti-austerity popular feeling turns from the negation of `enough is enough' to a radical governmental proposal, a new democratic model is emerging which can put pressure on the left parties not to miss their rendezvous with history. If May 6 leads to a French socialist President and a strong result for the Greek left, a scent of spring will travel from Paris to Athens. The French and the Greeks are voting not just for their own countries but for the future of Europe.

See also Maria Margaronis' piece in the Nation

Ministry of Interior Results, will be posted here in English

I'll be hitting the streets soon, so I can't promise I'll be updating this thread regularly... Feel free to take the thread over.

Display:
Good luck Talos.

I can see anything good coming out of these elections but I have to hang to any kind of optimism.

I object to your take regarding KKE. Some of what you say is true but claiming that they refuse to be a part of any solution under capitalism is an exageration.

by Euroliberal on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 09:17:02 AM EST
That's what little I understood from what she was saying. And I am willing to bet that I can find a direct quote...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One question: PASOK and ND get a slim majority. Is it a given that they will come to an understanding to form a government?
by Euroliberal on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 09:20:59 AM EST
The question begs of KKE.

Let's say, hypothetically, that it got 50% of the vote.

What would it do?

by Upstate NY on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 11:57:03 AM EST
I don't get the question.
by Euroliberal on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:08:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exit poll now:

ND 17-20%
SYRIZA 15,5 - 18,5%
PASOK 14 - 17%
KKE 7,5 - 9,5%
An.El. 10 - 12%
DIMAR 4.5 - 6.5%
Chryssi Avgi 6 - 8%
LAOS 2,5 - 3,5
Eco Greens 2,5 - 3,5
Dem Alliance 2 - 2,8
Drasi 2 - 2,8
Demiourgia Xana (3d neolib - enterpreneur party) 1,9 - 2,5
ANTARSYA 1,2 - 2

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:29:44 PM EST


Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:36:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
3%

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:41:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So we're looking at vote wastage of at least 7-8 percentage points, possibly more if LAOS or the Greens (or both) fail to make the cut. And unless SYRIZA beat ND we'll need 60 % of the democratically apportioned seats for anti-Troika parties to force default, so make that 55 percentage points or so.

So it's pretty clear that it will come down to whether and how fast the populist right sells out to the Troika.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:59:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Scanning the Party positions (as given in the diary) and looking at these numbers you'll be doing this again in a couple of months.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:44:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're not taking into account the 50-seat bonus to the biggest party.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're right.  I forgot about that.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At this point even with the bonus, the two parties ΑΡΕ at around ~151 seats. If LAOS makes it in they'll be at around 156. This is the kind of popular minority government that I know how to topple ;-)

If it wasn't for the bloody nazis this is as close to perfect as I can imagine. Check out the interior ministry results. Their prognostication with 50% of results in, is currently

ND - 19,2 - 109 seats
SYRIZA 16,3 - 50
PASOK 13,6  42
AnEl 10,5 - 32
KKE  8,5  26
Nazis  7,0 22
Dem Ar 6,0 19

The Greens and Laos will be close to the 3% limit and possibly over (and thus seats will change), Dem Alliance will be close to 3% and possibly under... LAOS is a possible two-party system ally

 I'll be back later. Off to celebrate!

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:44:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Congratulations
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The failure of PASOK to get even 15 % of the vote should be remembered every time someone claims that all left-wing parties need to do to win is to move to the "center."

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sometimes there just happens to be a gaping abyss in the center.
by generic on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or that the position of the German Finance Minister is not representative of the center of the Greek electorate.

Maybe a lesson here for Ireland too.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:22:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One could conclude that, if one defined the center as the place you are when you win elections.

That's called "begging the question," and is generally frowned upon outside certain Jesuit orders.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:27:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... let's ask a different question. What would have happened today if Syriza had played nice like good third parties are supposed to do, endorsed Pasok and not run "spoiler" lists?

My guess is that you'd be looking at a clear pro-Troika majority government or a much bigger nazi party. And that's an inclusive "or."

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course that would have been a stupid tactic - something on the order of the French left boycotting the elections so that Hollande would have lost. The principle should be to gain political power where possible, not to lose it.
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:32:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And what would have been your advice to Syriza in the 2009 election, and the five elections before that one? Given the information available at the time. Would the 50-seat bonus to the biggest party awarded by Greek electoral law influence your answer?

And if they had followed that advice, would they have been able to contest this election effectively?

The party apparatus required to run an effective election campaign does not spring into existence the moment a window of opportunity appears. It must be built in the years before that opportunity appears, which means it must be built during election cycles where running "spoiler" candidates carries short-term costs.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i don't claim to know a general answer- this depends on specifics of specific situations. My complaint in the Spanish elections was in reaction to a "vote for neither" program which is not a plan for building an alternative.
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:16:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't claim that a general answer exists. I'm just asking you to assess a concrete scenario, Syriza 1995-2009. Because if you find that the strategy you would have recommended for them would have resulted in them not being able to contest this election effectively, then that would suggest that your way of developing recommendations overstates the stability of the centrist consensus.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:24:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given their success, I would have recommended that they proceed with the strategy they followed - of course.

Since one is usually not in possession of such knowledge of the future, the general rule I propose is that one must have a plausible strategy for either building a third party or influencing the existing major parties depending on circumstance. And in particular the strategy of "let them know our displeasure by making a protest vote or not voting" is one that has been shown to not work.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:02:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But that was not, in fact, the recommendation you did make when IU was in a situation very nearly identical situation to Syriza 2009 in the last Spanish election. You recommended that they refrain from running spoiler candidates, due to the moderately non-proportional Spanish electoral system. In fact, you got quite prissy about their failure to hop aboard PSOE's handbasket.

If your reasoning was valid in Spain in 2011, why was it not valid in Greece in 2009? Conversely, if it was invalid in Greece in 2009, why was it valid in Spain in 2011?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:18:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it's certainly possible that i was wrong about Spain or am wrong about Greece, but I don't see how the situation was very nearly identical. Syriza began as a coalition that intended to and had good prospects of winning seats. The formation of Syriza was itself a rejection of the "run symbolic candidates" theory - in my understanding of the history. On the other hand, the "indignants" in Spain who advocated abstaining or randomly voting for some minor party did not provide any plan beyond registering discontent.
 
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:31:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We're talking about voting for IU, not about the "indignants".

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:35:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You lumped voting IU in with "randomly voting for some minor party." With great fanfare and a number of rude insinuations. Then claimed vindication when they scored somewhere in the same neighbourhood Pasok just did, and as PSOE will in the next election.

Which is, incidentally, around four times what Syriza got in 2009.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:38:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
discussion of the Spanish vote swing 2008-2011.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:44:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
SYRIZA was a protest vote until this election. But without the previous string of protest votes, they could not have grown to contest this election effectively.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:22:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did they not win seats in every election? Were they not formed explicitly to combat fragmentation of the left into ineffectual protest parties?
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:35:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They used to poll below 5% - in those conditions, we-re presuming you would have advocated voting "usefully" for the hegemonic party of the left, PASOK, because it was the only one with a prospect of winning - and under the Greek system with its 50 seat bonus for the plurality, the second and third parties can have twice as many votes as the first and half as many seats. So you can only help a left coalition by voting for the biggest left party.

Unless we're misunderstanding your ideas about strategic voting.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:40:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, if you assess that a pro-austerity, pro-Troika PASOK whose stated intention is to form a coalition with ND is not left then there was no way to make a "left coalition government" happen.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:47:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had to look it up

Voting for SNP or even De Linke is very different from voting for Ralph Nader in the US or for a splinter party in most of Spain.  I'm not against that at all. In fact, even in the US, there are places where third parties can and are effective. New York's Working Family Party is quite interesting. If you have a third party that is in position to win seats - why not?  My point was that the "plague on both houses" argument in favor of either sitting it out or voting symbolically, is a common argument. No Les Votes reads a lot like Michael Moore. I don't think it's a coincidence.

http://server3.eurotrib.com/story/2011/11/18/19330/952#140
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Félicitations, talos !

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:09:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
65.85% counted (is it normal to progress this slowly? Am I paranoid?)

ND - 19.80 - 111 seats
SYRIZA 16.25 - 50
PASOK 13.64  42
AnEl 10.50 - 32
KKE  8.37 - 26
Nazis  6.88 - 21
Dem Ar 6.04 - 18
LAOS 2.86 - 0
Greens 2.86 - 0

Are there counting trends in Greece like cities reporting last? Something that could yet boost the Greens?


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:30:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there any chance of an opportunist anti-troika coup in the rest-PASOK after this crushing election defeat?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
good question.
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can we dream of SYRIZA ahead of ND??? That would be cool.

In Portugal we seem to be divided between neoliberals (in power), PASOK and KKE type of parties. So, relax, worse is possible (OTOH we have a stable course: obey Germany). I think today is where we split courses. All in all, I would prefer to be Greek (though you seem to be headed for a clusterf.ck of instability)

Good luck...

by cagatacos on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The pollsters are split. It is very deifinitely not impossible that SYRIZA will be the first party. On the other hand it is not impossible that it will be third. The nazis might be over 8%...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:56:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just heard on Spanish TV that ND was getting 20% (low for a 1st party!) and SYRYZA were second at 18%. Wow.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 01:50:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seat allocations:

ND 45 - 115
SYRIZA 41-110
PASOK 37 - 105
KKE 19 - 31
An.El. 26 - 39
DIMAR 12 - 21
Chryssi Avgi 16 - 26
LAOS 0 - 11
Eco Greens 0 - 11

Looks to me that ND + PASOK would in any case attain 150 seats by themselves unless SYRIZA manages to come first.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:08:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That can't be right - those seat allocations sum to well over 400. I guess we can expect the oldest democracy money can buy to have over 100 % voter participation, but surely they cannot have over 130 % parliamentary attendance?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:11:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it's 196-319 + 50 which is 250 + 50 with a lot of noise. Not everyone can be simultaneously at the bottom of their vote range or at the top of their seat range. The first three parties, in particular, could any of them get the 50-seat bonus, but can't get it simultaneously.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:26:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By those estimates the forecast of a ND + PASOK government with SYRIZA leading the opposition looks pretty good.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:14:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the ND-PASOK government will have a very thin majority so the goal of the left will have been attained:
A good result for the left would be an inability by pro-austerity forces to form a stable government
a pro-austerity government with 150 seats plus change will crack under pressure.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:38:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As a reminder, PASOK+ND has together lost 50 MPs during the last period. Says wikipedia I hasten to add.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:42:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When is the first results due (or normally released)? Is there an election results page from the relevant authority?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 01:52:09 PM EST
Since Talos has other things to do besides keeping us updated here at least are Wikipedia result pages in English and Greek.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 01:59:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to that link given in the article, the seat allocation is:

ND: 19.74%, 111 seats (the 50 seat bonus is nearly half of its seats)

Syriza: 16.3%, 50 seats

PASOK: 13.58%, 42 seats

Anexartitoi Ellines: 10.48%, 32 seats

KKE: 8.37%, 26 seats

Chryssi Avgi: 6.89%, 21 seats

18.62% for parties not in parliament.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:59:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
very few people showed up expectexcept to boo and denounce them

I suppose.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 01:52:36 PM EST
Συγχαρητήρια· Μπορεί η τύχη να είναι μαζί μας·

Congratulations! May the luck be with us!

by PerCLupi on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:41:25 PM EST
Give [PASOK] a couple of months and they will become anti-troika to the bone...

@NickMalkoutzis

Venizelos: "A pro-Europe coalition as we imagined is not possible. A coalition of the old two-party system has no point."


guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:39:52 PM EST
On the contrary, Mr. Venizelos, SYRIZA is the only party in the next parliament with a clearly pro-Europe record.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:42:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, but claiming a pro-Europe mantle is the last resort of the scoundrel.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:43:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gideon Rachman: The time bomb no one can defuse (FT, April 2, 2012)
There was always a group of top German economists - call them the Bundesbank tendency - who had deep misgivings about the whole single currency project. Now some of these German sceptics believe their concerns are being vindicated and are even suggesting that - despite the current calm in the markets - Greece may have to leave the euro within months.

One scenario doing the rounds in Frankfurt and Berlin is that the crisis could be provoked by the Greek elections, which are likely to be held in early May. A new Greek government might seek to unpick the latest debt deal, provoking a chain of events leading to Greece leaving the euro. Technically, it is said that this would involve the sudden declaration of a temporary bank holiday, during which all euro-notes in Greek banks are stamped, to show that they are being reissued as drachmas. One obvious danger is that - as soon as this step was announced - there would be bank-runs in other vulnerable euro-area countries such as Portugal, as anxious account-holders rushed to move their money out of the country. This would be counteracted by the provision of massive emergency liquidity from the European Central Bank to financial institutions in vulnerable countries.

Doubtless, there are many flaws in this plan. But the very fact that such stark scenarios are doing the rounds in Germany may help to account for Chancellor Angela Merkel's recent decision to give interviews proclaiming her belief in Greece staying inside the euro and suggesting that the single currency's break-up would be a political disaster for Europe.



guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:42:51 PM EST
But, if Syriza is leading the coalition, then surely Greece would not elect to leave the euro.

A more likely scenario is that, no matter who is in power, there will be no new austerity measures enacted, and this will lead to the great displeasure of the troika.

How will the troika voice that displeasure (besides making references to pacts in Latin and the need to do one's homework)?

by Upstate NY on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:46:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They're sort of in a pickle there, because short of sending a gunboat to the Aegean there's not a whole Hell of a lot they can do that they're not doing already.

Cut off fuel imports, perhaps. Maybe. Unless Russia or China want to dip their toes in the Aegean Sea.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:52:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany could threaten not to lend Greece anymore money which would force Greece into (effective) bankruptcy and halt payments to German banks.

:-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:00:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be a halt of payments to the ECB and EFSF really.

Private banks are now sub-20% of total Greek debt.

Greece has been flipping back and forth between a primary surplus and a small (.5%) primary deficit the last several quarters. At last announcement I read that they were a couple hundred million in deficit. Again, around .5%. So, after being cutoff, they could presumably hold on and wait a while to see what the reactions would be. After all, they were cut off once before already. They surprised some in the troika by holding off for several months (did they dip into reserves?). One thing that's different this time is that new leadership might not make any payments on debt which would put them in arrears and as well afoul of EU regulations.

by Upstate NY on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:18:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(Note the emoticon.)

It would be a halt of payments to the ECB and EFSF really.

And anybody should care about that ... why?

One thing that's different this time is that new leadership might not make any payments on debt which would put them in arrears and as well afoul of EU regulations.

Austerians are losing their ability to control events.  When the PIIGS have been joined by Netherlands and - I hope - France in chanting, "We're Not Going to Take It!" the preponderance of power within the EU has shifted and re-writing the regulations becomes possible

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:54:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They certainly can threaten to stop any liquidity to Greece, collapsing all Greek banks.... and this is, I think, the threat the Greeks would receive.

So... if the election turn out as good as they might seem now, no austerity but all greek banks going under... what is the next step? out of the euro?... I guess.. or what? A country without banks nor savings... that would be interesting to see.

Am I wrong?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:19:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Once out of the Euro, they would be free to recapitalise their banks with newly printed money. Or by telling their creditors that it's just too bad to be the creditor of an insolvent institution.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:26:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely.. that's why I can not imagine  the EBC implenting the threat as any other thing that the signal that Greece is out of the euro...

I guess your answer is implicit. :) I am right.. there is no way Greece can stay in the euro without any bank. They need an immediate capitalization.. adn for this (if the ECB doe snot provide it) they must do it with local currency.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:31:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is no way that Greece can remain in the Euro as currently constituted.

Of course neither can Germany remain in the Euro as currently constituted, because the Euro as currently constituted is built to fail.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And is increasingly visibly doing what it was built to do and, unfortunately, taking maximum casualties with it. The sooner this process is ended the better for all.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 01:10:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If they do the German government will rip a $23 billion hole in the Balance Sheets of German banks and $7.43 billion in exports.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:55:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
officium est servandum
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:57:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then Germany will have to bail-out its banks directly instead of using Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc. as pass-through entities, price of imported foodstuffs will increase, and Germany will be politically isolated as the destroyer of Europe.

As of right now, I don't see it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:53:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As a deliberate plan? No.

As an unintended consequence of the internal contradictions of German domestic policy? I would need really tall odds to bet money one way or the other.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is that.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:07:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All of the scenarios in this subthread would require a Greek government with the balls to suspend free movement of capital and people with the rest of the EU.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:12:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure about this. again, the ball is in the EU's court.

It would be a gamble.

No new austerity measures will be passed. That's all that needs to happen.

Then the EU decides what to do. Any move that undercuts the Greek banking system or any other such measures will be interpreted everywhere as a forceful push outside of the euro (which then, yes, will be followed by a Greek decision, as to whether they should capitulate, or move on). But no one enters into the gambit without anticipating these events.

by Upstate NY on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:26:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely.

I think you write down my view better than myself...

But since everybody expects the other to follow a predictive path then, probably, no timplementing any austerity measure can be seen as the signal of Greece leaving the euro.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:33:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Greece is kicked out of the Euro, the other dominoes will follow. The question is where the buck stops for Germany. Back in 1992, it stopped at France but not at Italy or, more predictably, Britain. Today, it might still stop at France, but not at Portugal, Ireland, Spain or Italy.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Euro is unlikely to survive successively immiserating and then jettisoning Portugal, Spain and Italy.

That process will make it too obvious to too many people both that the Euro is a project of, by and for Germany and that there is perfectly viable growth path outside the Eurozone.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, then, maybe the buck stops with Spain and Italy this time around.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:54:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That depends on whether Germany shares the above analysis. It is possible that they have bought into their own propaganda. Or, what comes to the same thing, find it impolitic to go against the racist rhetoric they have encouraged.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:14:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Italy can survive, I think, as they have a primary surplus, and the ECB is both able and willing to push Italian rates down as long as Italy can keep a balanced budget, which it can.

Spain is the big problem, and the Eurozone and Union will live or die with the fate of Spain. Where is El Cid when we need him?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 09:05:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I should have said eventually, obviously Greece is not going to suspend/restrict the application of the single market as its opening salvo but in reaction to some hostile EU action.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:28:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
@stratosathens
Pro-Nazi Golden Dawn leader demands that the journalists stand as he enters the press room. Those who don't obey get thrown out.


guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:57:55 PM EST
New Democracy: ... They will be blissful if the approach or surpass 30%, seem more likely to get 24-27%, will have serious prblems if they fall under 23%.

So very serious problems.

PASOK. .. Anything over 20% (they had 44% in 2009) will be greeted with relief and joy by Venizelos. Anything under 16% as a disaster, especially if they lose second place as rumoured possible.

Disaster it is.

SYRIZA. ... anything over 13% is a triumph, anything in double digits good, and below that a disaster.

Triumph, shining!

KKE. ... Anything over 11% is a triumph for the party, anything below 9 a defeat

Defeat.

LAOS. ... If they enter parliament they will throw a party. If they don't they will disintegrate

Looks like they can disintegrate.

Chryssi Avgi (Golden Dawn) Nazis. ... They will be happy to enter parliament however and its likely that they will

The fuckers are in.

Anexartiti Ellines. ... Will be happy with anything over 9%. Anything lower than 5% will be a defeat.

Are happy in the end.

Democratic Left: ... Will be very content with anything over 7%, Ok with !5-7%.

They are OK I guess.

Democratiki Symmakhia (democratic alliance): ... They are one of the crutches that the two parties can use if they can't form a government by themselves. If she enters parliament. If she doesn't make it to parliament the party will be annihilated.

Annihilated.

Drasi - Liberal Alliance: ... Might win the intra-liberal war, and just might, make it to parliament. In which case Manos might end up as a Prime Minister in a coalition government

No PM post for Mr. Manos.

Ecologist - Greens: ... They will be delighted with anything over 4% But making it into Greek parliament for the first time would probably be OK

Not OK, apparently. Anti-troika voters lost; though more pro-troika votes were wasted on the liberals.

ANTARSYA. ... They will probably pass the 1% limit for the first time ever for a grouping of the extreme left in Greece. Anything over 2% would be a triumph though...

Apparently not?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:01:22 PM EST
Looking at the Interior Ministry's map, PASOK was biggest party only in Crete and a province close to the Turkish border, while SYRIZA won in the centre and a couple of other places. ND's majority came from most of the rural areas. KKE won on an island.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:05:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PASOK had something like 60% in the three prefectures of Crete in 2009 it is now winning, and it has dropped to something like a third of its vote now. The prefecture of Rodopi in Thrace was won by PASOK because there was a strong muslim minority candidate (50% in the prefecture). Syriza won neighboring Xanthi for the same reason...

The "center" that Syriza won is Athens, the Athens Basin area, and the exurbs and industrial towns (not to mention slums) surrounding Athens (heavy industry also is concentrated in the other two pink prefecture in the center, Boetia and the island of Evia). This is a big deal. It won across the board in Athens in all parts of town and the conglomeration except the richest. The little dot it won in Northern Greece is the Thessaloniki Metropolitan area. Between Athens and Thessaloniki, that's over half the population of Greece. It also won in the area in the Northern Peloponnese (Akhaia) where the third largest city in Greece is situated (Patras) and which is a deindustrialized city, in depression well before the current crisis. So Syriza won in the three largest cities in Greece.

KKE won in Samos- basically it won ~50% in the neighboring island of Ikaria, a Very Red island, populated by mostly crazy people (crazy in a nice way), which totalled something like >70% for the hard and harder left. That was enough to win the single seat.

Contrast and compare with 2009

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 09:37:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How do people vote on Aegina (small island off Athens in the Saronic Gulf) and Agistri (even smaller island next to Aegina)? I have friends on Agistri, so I'm a bit curious. :)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 09:11:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aigina
Agistri (Apparently the Nazis there are tied at first place with New Democracy)

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 12:42:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Awesome. The Mediterranean vacation paradise island, located in a sea where you actually feel you are in the cradle of democracy and Western civilization as the sun sets where the land falls at Corinth, has now been turned into a pseudo-Nazi stronghold.

Thank you ECB! I'll remember to wear my swastika t-shirt at my next visit!

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 05:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, and by the way.

"The rise in political extremism in Europe," writes Financial Times columnist Wolfgang Munchau, "is in part the consequence of stubbornness and stupidity among centrist elites."

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 05:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
European Tribune: Get your news two weeks early.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 06:05:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ehm... about Corinth? It was the prefecture / voting district with the highest percentage of Nazi voters in Greece...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 09:15:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And BTW, if you go there regularly and they know you? Don't. Let them know why you won't. It's about time that some people realize that when your island votes Nazi, this has the result of people avoiding your island and your business. Aigina at least had the Nazis running sixth...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 09:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My friends who live there are actually Swedes, and I don't think they are going anywhere. They've owned a house on Agistri for about 20 years, and spend basically half the year living there.

You know, things would work much better in Europe economically speaking, if a million Germans followed their lead. ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu May 10th, 2012 at 05:35:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the pro-austerity coalition has a majority of two seats.  I wonder how long that will last?
by IdiotSavant on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:15:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And now one.  

Who gets to be government if Parliament is split 50:50?

by IdiotSavant on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:43:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And only one PASOK defector is needed.
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 08:00:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And now none.  It's officially a hung parliament, with 150 for the quislings and 150 against.
by IdiotSavant on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 08:39:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Projections are for 149. They will try  - in increasing order of desperateness: a. To cut a deal with DEM.AR conceivably offering Fotis Kouvelis, the prime-ministerial seat b. Cut a deal with Kammenos c. Entice or bribe MPs from these two parties to support a government d. Fall on their knees to beg SYRIZA to enter some sort of government.

Or they can call for elections again under new management and line-up.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 09:10:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Will they bring in the Nazis?
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 09:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, everyone agreed that the Nazis are untouchable

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 09:37:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
good
by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 09:43:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And its done.  Quislings 149, everyone else 151.  No majority for austerity, and good riddance to it.
by IdiotSavant on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 11:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I read correctly ANTARSYA got 1,19%. What does extreme left mean in this context?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 01:20:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
it looks like the ecologist-greens are getting close to the threshold, at 2.90%, and LAOS is right behind at 2.87%. 92% if the vote is counted, and i don;t know if they'd be able to catch up, but if they did that could presumably shift the # of seats everyone else got, right?
by wu ming on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 11:06:32 PM EST
Ack, they ended at 2.93%, failing narrowly. Still, with ND just two points ahead of SYRIZA, no pro-troika government majority even with the 50-seat bonus:

ND - 18.89% - 108 seats
SYRIZA 16.76% - 52 seats
PASOK 13.20% - 41 seats
AnEl 10.59% - 33 seats
KKE  8.48% - 26 seats
Nazis  6.97% - 21 seats
Dem Ar 6.10% - 19 seats
Greens 2.93% - 0 seats
LAOS 2.90% - 0 seats

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 01:19:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hello everyone. Summing up ND, PASOK and Dem Ar we get 168 seats. Any chance a government like that can emerge? This if I'm reading correctly that Dem Ar means the Democratic Alliance.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 03:39:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They sound centrist enough:
Anexartiti Ellines. Populist, anti-troika right. A splinter off ND, that left under Panos Kammenos its leader when New Democracy supported the Papademos government and voted for the second memorandum. String among the impoverished electoral base of the right, has attracted a not insignificant part of the ND cadres and some from PASOK, despite (?) the fact that their leader is a conspiracy theorist and a clown. Will be happy with anything over 9%. Anything lower than 5% will be a defeat.


guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 04:07:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, IMO.

There are complications though and for that reason I will offer what I think it will be an alternative solution to avoid a repetition and the ire of the EU Overlords and/or the "Markets".

PASOK is dead. Urgent need to form a new center-left/socialist party. Those who get stuck with the ruins of PASOK sign their political death.
ND is no better condition and might disintehrate as well.
DEM AR has no good choices and will go along.

Their dilemma is if they go it together, they will take the brutal beating  for governing in such a context and their future will be compromised forever.

What might be more acceptable and might give them a chance to regroup is to support a solution more acceptable to the electorate.

Here's my prediction then: they call for a national salvation government under..... PAPADEMOS and pretty much leave thigs as they are which will definitely please the foreigners and calm the markets.

p.s: Papademos is not loathed or held responsible even though he is a technocrat working for the Troika.

by Euroliberal on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 06:40:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PASOK is dead. Urgent need to form a new center-left/socialist party.

Why? What would such an entity offer that Syriza cannot do better?

I mean, aside from collaborating with the right wing...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 06:48:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not the one urging them to form a party. It's a fact of politics.

Centrists make up 60% of the electorate. The crisis made them disperse to... everywhere it seems.

Don't forget 20% of the votes will have no parliamentary representation. A new movement will gradually pull them back.

by Euroliberal on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 08:04:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PASOK is dead. Urgent need to form a new center-left/socialist party. Those who get stuck with the ruins of PASOK sign their political death.

PASOK represented a certain patronage network. That network probably still survives even in latent form, and I don't think it can be taken over by SYRIZA, not that SYRIZA should necessarily want to inherit that kind of baggage. So it's quite possible that a new party will emerge from the core of that network.

Now, why SYRIZA cannot pick up the mantle of being the dominant center-left party, I don't know.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 08:30:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's my prediction then: they call for a national salvation government under..... PAPADEMOS and pretty much leave thigs as they are which will definitely please the foreigners and calm the markets.

p.s: Papademos is not loathed or held responsible even though he is a technocrat working for the Troika.

What's the mechanics of this, then? Does the President propose a Prime Minister to the Parliament who then needs to pass a confidence vote? Can this result in a technocratic government à la Monti, with ND + PASOK + DemAr supporting Papademos' confidence motion but not contributing ministers to the cabinet directly?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 08:36:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Assuming the cycle of mandates to create a government under any of the 3 leaders is fruitless, the President sits with all of them and makes a last ditch effort before setting a new election date.
If the proposal arises, they might wish to accept without being involved in actual governance. Just promise to a confidence vote with some bargaining mixed in there as well.
It's a save face with less political cost procedure.
by Euroliberal on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 11:51:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, DemAr is Dimokratiki Aristera. The Democratic Left. I am certain that they will be under extreme pressure to join a ND-PASOK government, though theoretically an anti-troika party, since they are the weakest link in the anti-memorandum side.
Dimokratiki Symmakhia (Democratic Alliance) is out. The various fractions of the neoliberal right shot themeselves in the foot. They gathered close to 7% but failed to enter parliament since they were fractured in three parties.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 07:18:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I missed that talos had linked the results in the diary body. Lots of parties below 3%.

Pirates got 0,51%, which is higher then I expected with a narrow program in an election dominated by austerity. Good start.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 01:17:22 AM EST
The flip-side to this is that by refusing to join the Greens in a common list, their success meant that the Greens were left out of parliament

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 07:04:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is a pity that the Greens missed parliament. Was such an offer on the table from the Greens?

Generally I am sceptical of such math, because it only holds if both parties activists and voters accepts such a merge. Politics being tribal, that is not a given.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 07:19:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes there was such an offer but the Pirates declined. It seems that many though not all of the Pirates' voters were former Green voters

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 07:43:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 07:50:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But if there is enough commonality of interest so that most of your voters would "rather they get seats than the other guys", and if there are regional or local elections that you can contest separately, a coalition list to get some members from each party elected to the parliament can be a good deal both ways.

As far as the second half ~ I've seen that both work and fail on that threshold in the Liberal / National coalition in Australia, where the collapse of the Nats state party representation in state parliaments in New South Wales and Victoria led to a coalition state party, while the dominance of National Party representation at the state level in Queensland meant that the coalition partners in the state retain their individual identities.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 01:10:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Matina Stevis blog: At a Glance: What Happens Next in Greece (WSJ, 7 May 2012)
THE MANDATE: Antonis Samaras today will receive a so-called exploratory mandate from President of the Republic Karolos Papoulias, whose role is largely ceremonial. This means he has three days to form a government. Mr. Samaras yesterday invited "all pro-European parties" to unite forces under his leadership to "keep the country in the euro" and "modify" the economic policies attached to Greece's bailout program. That implies he's likely to hold talks with most parties that have made it into parliament, apart from the neo-nazi Golden Dawn and the Communists who are both categorically anti-Europe.

If Mr.  Samaras fails, the president will call on Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, to try and form a government. Mr. Tsipras had called upon all left-wing parties to join forces before the election and will do so again now. In his address on Sunday evening following the results, he said he would do the same when the exploratory mandate reached his hands. He too will have three days to build a government.

If Mr. Tsipras fails, the exercise will be repeated by Evangelos Venizelos, the leader of socialist Pasok, which was the winner of the 2009 election and the party that oversaw the country's bailout program and its debt restructuring. Mr. Venizelos Sunday said he too wanted a pro-Europe coalition.

Apparently the President doesn't have much leeway in the way he handles the government formation process.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 10:35:18 AM EST
why is Venizelos still running PASOK?  I would expect a leadership shakeup after such a result.
by rootless2 on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 12:17:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe he's taking a cue from Spain...

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 12:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would you want his job?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 12:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course not, but I'm not in the party leadership. What kind of political party doesn't have a surplus of opportunistic back stabbers? This seems plain wrong.
by rootless2 on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 12:51:18 PM EST
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But the ones who were quick on the uptake seem to have jumped ship to DIMAR.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 01:01:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Opportunistic back-stabbers can be very loyal to the current leader when leadership involves a thankless task with little prospect of success. This could be a time when opportunistic back stabbers are keeping their powder dry.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 01:13:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you're an opportunistic backstabber this situation doesn't look like an opportunity.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 05:36:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that makes some sense.
by rootless2 on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 09:17:04 PM EST
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No one is challenging him, plus his supporters say that the damage was done under Papandreou, he is managing a disaster not of his making. Most people don't buy it but he is so power hungry and so well connected with the media and the powers that be, that he won't be easy to replace.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 02:05:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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