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Tuesday OpenThread

by Helen Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:32:54 AM EST

Like the morning rain


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keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:33:48 AM EST
Bill Shorten wins Labor leadership and pledges to renew trust in party | World news | The Guardian
First ever vote involving grassroots members means Victorian rightwinger will lead Australian Labor party into opposition

Bill Shorten will take the Australian Labor party into opposition after the September election defeat, having prevailed in the first leadership ballot in the party's history that included the votes of grassroots party members.

Shorten's victory was built on strong endorsement from the ALP parliamentary caucus, where he attracted 63.95% of the vote.

The rival candidate, the New South Wales leftwinger and former deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese, was the wider party members' choice, securing almost 60% support in the grassroots ballot.

Shorten, the Victorian rightwinger, emerged on Sunday victorious with 52.02% of the combined vote. The two ballots, from caucus and the members, held equal weight.

Bugger.

A few weeks again, the opposite happened in NZ : David Cunliffe was elected leader of the NZLP. He had the support of a majority of the membership and of the affiliated unions, and is alleged to be to the left of the other main candidate, who had majority support among MPs.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:25:39 AM EST
As often happens, the people at the top of the party are noticeably more to the right than the grassroots.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:38:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]


In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:52:59 AM EST
Sadly typical of UK govt right now. The most depressing thing is that I'm still unconvinced that Labour wouldn't try to be even more authoritarian

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 12:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Inevitable Republican Collapse That Will End the Shutdown  

As we enter the home stretch, the dynamic is only reinforcing itself. The Tea Partiers have become steadily more delusional, reminding the pragmatists how insane it was to lock arms with them in the first place. "When I was home, I talked with people in our office that called in, I don't get the sense that 70 percent [of people blame us]," House conservative Jim Jordan told Politico last week. (Good point!) On Sunday, the loonies in the House seized on a report that a mob of patriots overran the World War II Memorial and reclaimed it for ... well, for whom isn't entirely clear. But the loons in the House promptly labeled it a "game changer," according to National Review's Robert Costa. To them, it was the latest sign that the country sees things their way.

The pragmatists are, in turn, only becoming more anxious. Costa reports that aides to Mitch McConnell now worry they'll have to make concessions on the sequester just to end the current crisis, whereas they'd previously assumed they could leave the sequester in place and trade it for entitlement cuts in a future grand bargain.

What Costa doesn't discuss is the Republican leadership's incentives, which is the final, poetic wrinkle in all of this. McConnell and Boehner, in addition to understanding how badly the Tea Partiers have hurt their party, have yet another reason to sue for peace. McConnell is facing a Tea Party primary challenge in his re-election campaign. Boehner has been repeatedly embarrassed by the Tea Partiers in his caucus, who have actively sabotaged his leadership (egged on/manipulated by Texas Senator Ted Cruz). Both men know their side has lost. Both men also know their party's fanatics are to blame. Do you think they don't want to see the Tea Party humiliated before all is said and done? Do you think they might want to see the Tea Partiers stuck with all the blame?


50 years ago The New Republic was a 'must read' for me - every Saturday morning in the university library. It is a different magazine today and I normally wouldn't even look at it. But they do know their own.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 12:23:01 PM EST
Slate: Poll: Basically Everyone Now Angry at GOP Over Shutdown:

I can't say for sure how this will affect the 2014 elections.  I do think we can take all predictions based on previous electoral history and toss 'em.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 12:30:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that the problem for the Republicans is that they've been painted into a corner by their Tea Party faction and now they're here they've got absolutely no idea how to get out of the mess.

Boehner and McConnell can huff and puff all they like, preparing their little bills which are never gonna pass. Truth is, they've not got a clue how to present a clean bill to Congress without destroying the GOP. And much tho' we'd wish it, they're never gonna do that.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 12:45:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See poll, above.

GOP is almost certainly going to take an electoral hit come the mid-terms.  How badly?  Can't say.  If they keep this nonsense going all the way through to 2014 there is a good chance they will be destroyed as a national party.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The unanswerable question is how much damage they are going to do before November 2014.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:05:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, a rolling series of crises every three months, at a minimum another shutdown crisis in January, will set the tone for the '14 elections.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:14:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the poll is only on national trends, tbh they don't care what people think in Dem areas. Most of these people are sitting on unassailable majorities in gerrymandered constituencies and will never be held to account for their behaviour.

And if the US Govt is damaged over the debt limit, then the Te Party will say "see, we told you gummint doesn't work"

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:36:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What are the odds the moderate Republicans will defect to the Democrats instead?

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 12:52:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The chances the debt ceiling will be raised is 100% if a Bill comes to the floor of the House.

The shutdown is another matter but I'd say there are enough GOP votes to end it.  Again, if a Bill comes to the floor.  

The trick is "a Bill comes to the floor."  Boehner, et.al., have rigged House procedure regarding the current Senate Bill in ways I do not fully understand.  My guess is the Senate has to pass a new Bill and that Bill must, somehow, be forced past the Boehner before he can muck with the process so it can be voted on.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:01:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
House Fails On Debt Deal As Conservative Groups Balk   HuPo

King was especially distraught by the showdown, representing a suburban district outside of New York City.

"This party is going nuts," King said. "So many people I run into who are normal people -- and I hate to use that term -- they just can't understand what's going on. On this one, they can't even see both sides," King said. "They just think Republicans are crazy. That's it. They see no justification for any of this."

....

"Even if this bill passed tonight, what would it have done?" King told HuffPost. "After shutting down the government for two and a half weeks, laying off 800,000 people, all the damage we caused, all we would end up doing was taking away health insurance from congressional employees. That's it? That's what you go to war for? That's what we shut down the United States government for?"



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 09:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Via HuffPo:

The aide said the deal would hew closely to those earlier talks between Reid and McConnell. It would fund the government through Jan. 15, raise the debt ceiling through Feb. 7, and mandate both chambers appoint budget conferees to produce a broader framework for deficit reduction by Dec. 13. (The aide noted that having a deadline on Friday the 13th didn't bode well for the framework's chances.) A second Democratic aide, who confirmed the substance of the deal, added that because of parliamentary quirks, the budget conference language may be considered as an addendum, and not part of the deal itself.

The Senate deal also would allow the Treasury Department to use extraordinary measures to avoid defaulting should the next debt limit deadline be breached. The bill would require income-verification for those receiving subsidies under Obamacare, though that is a small change that the administration is comfortable with. There will be no delay in the re-insurance provision, which was contemplated in earlier talks and is a favored policy of both businesses and unions.

So the deal is a raise in the debt ceiling and re-opening of the government in exchange for "income verification" on health care reform, which health care reform, you know, already had.

Basically the Senate Reps get a worthless token and some vague bullshitting about deficit reduction.  "You behaved like grown-ups, unlike your House colleagues, so we won't completely humiliate you."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 07:58:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the provision to allow the Treasury 'extraordinary measures' in the event of a debt limit breach would be cover for all sorts of actions. Were lifting the debt ceiling again threatened the response could be: "Well, what is your preference: trillion dollar coins, bond cancellation, consols or super-premium bonds?"

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 10:20:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It appears that the count for a clean continuing resolution is still not enough in the House. It might take a default to push a few more of the realistic Rs over to the other side.

I still think that the worries of Boehner and McConnell are overblown. They are big boys, they have dealt with this sort of thing, there have been government shutdowns before. What they need to do is get a clear, public outcry that demands them to go against the Tea Party. They need air cover for the 2014 election so they can keep their seats.

by asdf on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What are the odds the moderate Republicans will defect to the Democrats instead?

I would hope that Pelosi is talking to some likely defectors now. But having 20 seems a stretch. But some might prefer to stay, vote for motions and bills that serve to humiliate the Tea Party and then strive for reelection as a proud moderate. The primary would be the main challenge, but nuking the Tea Party now and seeking monetary support from business groups for the election would be part of a strategy that 'the best defense is a good offense'.

I would laugh my ass off were McConnel and Boehner to support a 'compromise' that eliminated most or all of the 'sequester' and just postponed the $65 annual 'tax' on Obamacare subscribers that is intended to compensate insurers for added costs. Just tell the insurance lobby guys "Sorry, had to give you up to save the economy. It is the fault of these Tea Party idiots. Why don't you give some financial support to our moderate candidates that are being targeted by Tea Party adds in the primaries?"

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:28:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maddow Blog - With two days until debt-ceiling deadline, chaos grips Capitol Hill

Once in a great while, developments in Congress can be simple and complicated at the same time. This afternoon is one of those instances.

Let's start with the easy one: it's become abundantly clear today that House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) can either make far-right House Republicans happy or he can prevent U.S. defaulting on its debts. He can't do both.

That's the simple part of the story. The more complicated part is worth sitting down for.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 02:21:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two choices:

(1) Either Boehner shows he cares more about the country than he does about the Teabaggers and his speakership, or
(2) Obama takes one of the alternative approaches.

Treasury's not going to run out of money for a while, so "two days before the deadline" is a little misleading.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 06:08:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At this point it looks like they have almost split.

House Speaker John Boehner was "struggling" to come up with enough votes to pass a GOP counter-proposal to the Senate plan, a House Republican leadership aide and other sources told CNN's Dana Bash and Deirdre Walsh. After a two-hour meeting with his caucus that lasted twice as long as scheduled, Boehner told reporters there was no final decision on what the GOP-led House would do.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/15/politics/shutdown-showdown/

by asdf on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 03:10:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Moderate" is the wrong word.  They're still very conservative, but they're not the types who are happy to watch the world burn.

The odds are quite high that they will eventually.  They won't switch parties or anything, but they'll help the Dems break the logjam.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 05:10:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And then they'll be primaried and then what will they do to stay in politics in their districts?

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 09:24:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This was backstage, let them get into the song.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 12:24:37 PM EST

From their latest album, Fugitives.

Moriarty plays songs of Woodie Guthrie, Willie Mc Tell, John Hurt, Hank Williams and other famous anonymous songwriters. Featuring Don Cavalli, Wayne Standley, Mama Rosin, Moriba Koita.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 12:26:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
GEMA: Unfortunately this video is not available in germany...

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 04:23:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Try their site.

What's more the record is on their own label, Air Rytmo.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 04:37:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
New Information and Communication Technology `SteganoSonic': Uses Supersonic Waves to Send Soundless Digital Information | RocketNews24

The two speaker units were on a stand facing one direction.  When the tablet computer was taken to the area where the speakers were directed, a web page introduction would instantly appear on the screen.  If you got close enough to the speakers, you could hear a narration of the research too.

The small supersonic wave speakers lined up on the panel act as transducers and are able to put together digital information as well as sound by switching from audible to inaudible ultrasonic frequencies at high speeds.

This system is known as a parametric speaker acoustical system.  Basically, SteganoSonic takes those inaudible supersonic waves and loads them with digital information, such as a website URL, and sends it to the tablet terminal.



'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:14:45 PM EST
I just found a drop of red, sticky blood on the towel after drying my hair (rain in Lyon). Started freaking out, then remembered that my daughter had helped organise this.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:18:42 PM EST
Beppe Grillo's Blog
We are the Pirates Party and we are in favour of file-sharing but obviously no one of sound mind would form a party solely for the purpose of sharing files. Now we have it and it works perfectly, however, the problem is that in this attempt to block file sharing, our basic rights have come under attack.
The European institutions, the European Commission in particular, are consulting widely and asking openly and everyone is entitled to respond and say what they think regarding the various topics ... The problem is that once all these responses have been gathered, what usually happens here in Brussels is that they start listening to the lobby groups acting on behalf of the large corporations and then, 99 times out of a 100 the Commission will go ahead and propose whatever these lobby groups say.
The Swedish Pirates Party was established on the first of January 2006. It was originally founded by Rick Falkvinge. It was enough to hear that name for me to understand that there was no way I could stay away and, given my activist background, it was perfectly natural for me to join. So I switched on the computer, I went onto the website and yes, lo and behold, the party's programme was precisely what I expected, so everything went on from there. In June 2009 we got 7% of the vote in the European elections, which entitled us to 2 seats in the European Parliament.
Our greatest success, in my opinion, was the blocking of the ACTA(*). The reasons for this success lies in the fact that hundreds of people from all over Europe took to the streets and many people sent e-mails to the members of European Parliament. It is easy to think "I'm just one citizen amongst many and whatever I do doesn't really make any difference", but that's wrong because it makes a huge difference, especially in the European Parliament since the members of the European Parliament are not answerable to any political party, they make decisions independently and when they realise that there is something that the citizens feel particularly strongly about, they take that into account. From 2009 to 2012 we worked on ACTA right here in Parliament. We carried on regardless and we tried to tell the people outside what was going on so that the interested activists could follow what was happening and that is what made the demonstrations possible at the opportune time. It's a bit like in the Disney film "Mulan", when the emperor says "The outcome of this war may depend on one individual soldier or on a grain of rice" and, in the case of ACTA, we turned out to be that grain of rice. We, beginning with the Pirates Party, have a sound proposal to legalise file-sharing and reform copyright.
When I came to the European Parliament I joined the Greens Group as an independent ... and we scored a major success by convincing the Greens Group to adopt our file-sharing policy as its official line here in Parliament. It's true, the Greens only have 7% of the seats in Parliament, however, the fact that we are here, on the inside, and that we can discuss issues with the others on a daily basis, means that we have an opportunity to share our ideas, which is the only way to get through and achieve something in politics. It is obvious that, on our own, we will never be a majority so we can only win if other parties steal our programme and copy our ideas and that's precisely what we're working on. It's very encouraging that we have achieved this with at least one of the groups. These days the Internet constitutes the largest piece of information infrastructure that we have and should be taken seriously, as part of our world, because that's what it is.
In order for democracy to work, we need citizens that question absolutely everything and that cannot happen where information is lacking.

yes

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 01:22:56 PM EST
Bruegel: Mind the gap! And the way structural budget balances are calculated By Zsolt Darvas on 12th October 2013
Labour: after identifying labour supply, a measure of `equilibrium' unemployment rate, the so-called NAWRU (non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment), is used to estimate the sustainable level of employment. NAWRU is estimated with a statistical technique;
Gone is NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment).

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 03:59:10 PM EST
If the statistics begin to embarrass you, change the methodology

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 04:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But this is actually more embarrasing (if people understand it).

NAIRU is the level of unemployment necessary to prevent inflation. NAWRU is the level of unemployment necessary to prevent wage increases. Of course that is largely how NAIRU has been treated anyway, this just cuts down one step of obfuscation and spells it right out: the unemployment is there intentionally to prevent those employed daring to ask for a raise.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 05:13:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely. The mask is off.

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 09:23:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
correct link

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 30th, 2013 at 11:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Robet Shiller: The Best, Brightest, and Least Productive? (Sep. 20, 2013)
In the United States, 7.4% of total compensation of employees in 2012 went to people working in the finance and insurance industries. Whether or not that percentage is too high, the real issue is that the share is even higher among the most educated and accomplished people, whose activities may be economically and socially useless, if not harmful.

...

According to a study by Thomas Philippon and Ariell Reshef, much of the increase in financial activity has taken place in the more speculative fields, at the expense of traditional finance. From 1950 to 2006, credit intermediation (lending, including traditional banking) declined relative to "other finance" (including securities, commodities, venture capital, private equity, hedge funds, trusts, and other investment activities like investment banking). Moreover, wages in "other finance" skyrocketed relative to those in credit intermediation.

...

... these people's activities also impose costs on the rest of us. Indeed, a 2011 paper by Patrick Bolton, Tano Santos, and José Scheinkman argues that a significant amount of speculation and deal-making is pure rent-seeking. In other words, it is wasteful activity that achieves nothing more than enabling the collection of rents on items that might otherwise be free.



In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 04:39:48 PM EST
I got the biggest kick out that yesterday's news.  The Bank of Sweden literally proved the old saying, "Only in economics can two guys win the Nobel for saying the opposite thing," true.

Fama's a clown, but good for Shiller.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 05:15:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fama's going to become insufferable.

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 09:23:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Katrin on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 06:37:40 AM EST
I'm quite sure that the Koch's believe that their wealth makes them immune to this. Or that their god would never allow such a thing to happen.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 07:44:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
sadly, I just feel a sense of dreadful impotence about this. Short of arranging the assassination of the elites and those who would displace them (I'm guessing 5% of the population), I don't see what we can do. Protesting and demonstrating the facts have failed.

I'm childless and in my mid 50s. I will not live to see my world end, nor will I bequeath a dying planet to my children. It's a small comfort but it's all I've got. I feel sorry for those who are not so lucky.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 07:55:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This film is good in raising awareness of the problem. You are answering my misgivings as to whether it encourages activism or despair. I hope the continuations (it is the first part of a series) focus on what we need to do.
by Katrin on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 08:24:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, the film didn't do that, I've felt like that for a long time

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 16th, 2013 at 09:44:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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