by A swedish kind of death
Mon Mar 4th, 2013 at 04:25:25 AM EST
In many threads here the possibility of war in Europe as a result of the crisis has been discussed. I got to thinking and concluded that it could be good to look a bit at different war-like scenarios.
Safeguarding the reforms
We are already seeing economic and physical violence, in particular in Greece. A coup to enact "necessary reforms" could be hailed as democratic by the major powers. This is violence but not yet war.
Defending democracy against communism
A sizeable and armed part of the population does not recognise the government as legitimate and set up their own. Fighting ensues between the factions and you have a civil war. It is not too hard to see a scenario where this could play out if the economic madness goes on.
For example: Syriza wins the next Greek election and is villified in the press. Golden Dawn and their police allies attempt a coup. Government calls in the military. After the first few days different sides are in control of different parts of the country, with two governments claiming to be the legitimate one.
By precedence of earlier interventions the major powers in the EU decide to intervene in a civil war by economic and material support, bombings and if needed special operations troops. If a civil war erupts I expect the major powers to get involved. If the last couple of years has taught us anything, it is the duty of major powers to meddle.
The major powers probably do not want to send in visible ground troops to support one side unless that side has already won. Minor powers is another matter. Today's right-wing authoritarians within the EU after all do not have the freedom enjoyed by the 1930s dictators Kalecki described. Stuck with an economic system that demands recession and risks revolution (from the left) because of the permanent recession or coup (from other right-wingers supported by the major powers) if they attempt to leave the EU-prescribed policies, they are in a bad spot. And what is better to get people to rally around their flag and leader but a successful little war?
So say that Hungary continues the current path under Orbán and one of its neighbours with a Hungarian minority looks sufficiently weak and has a - with the major powers - unpopular austerity-critical government. Then Orbán could combine a humanitarian intervention and freedom for oppressed Hungarians. Not formal annexation or anything like that, just Hungarian troops supporting a coup dictator in exchange for extensive home rule for the minority and down the lane (next time Orbán needs to shore up support at home) a referendum opting to separate the minority regions and attach to Greater Hungary.
A New Order
To really, really, really count as a war in Europe it has to involve France and Germany. Since France has nukes Germany would not attack. But perhaps France would?
In the future humanitarian and peacemaking interventions are established as means of conducting internal EU policy. French troops have been involved in a number of conflicts against the population of various EU states. German troops not so much, because of the inevitable WWII backlash that would produce. Now France is also suffering under austerity, the main parties on the left and right have failed to remain credible in the eyes of the voters (despite - or perhaps because of - all those interventions). LePen is elected, but facing the risks of left-wing revolution because of austerity or elite financed coup if she deviates from austerity she realises that the only way forward is east.
After a short military campaign that takes Germany with surprise, Bundestag passes with a wide majority a law placing the country under Troika management. The ECB meets and appoints LePen ECB boss and the European Parliament in session in Strasbourg appoints her Commission President. Conspiracy theorists thinks the armed, uniformed, French-speaking vote counters at all three locations might have something to do with it. The secret police has their IP numbers.
Anyway, uniting the offices of president of France, ECB and the Commission LePen creates a New Order in Europe with all countries under Troika (thus LePen) management. After some countries leave the EU and quickly place themselves under US or Russian overlordship, the IMF is kicked out of the Troika. Finally a fascist economy can be established with plenty of jobs in armament factories, police and military.