The UK and the Euro

by ceebs Thu May 2nd, 2013 at 09:34:41 AM EST

An interesting posting on the LSE Blogs

Poor economic performance may leave the UK with no choice but to join the euro if it wishes to remain in the EU | British Politics and Policy at LSE

In light of the Eurozone crisis, many commentators in the UK maintain that the Eurozone and the EU are doomed. Recalling the UK's desire to remain apart from embryonic attempts towards European integration in the 1950s, Tim Bale argues that, should the euro survive, the UK may be unable to resist further integration. With a relatively poor outlook for growth in the coming decade, the UK may be soon faced with a choice: join the euro to remain in the EU, or face complete marginalisation

Now an alternative might be to take an economic path, less serious, but that would never do. but it may become a choice that has to be made.

The UK and the Euro | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The UK and the Euro (4.00 / 2)

Most 'political scientists' put what are left of my teeth on edge and almost all conservative 'political scientists' do so. This seemed to involve telling his specific audience something congenial without him boxing himself in to rigorously. The time frame appears to be, perhaps, five years. Unless EU leaders change course and step up their game significantly there is not likely to be an EU to join in five years and, if there is, it might be worth joining, along with joining the euro-zone, which would have to have developed into a monetary union with a significant surplus recycling mechanism. If it is the same EMU as currently on offer it will effectively be an undertaker for nations wanting to join - one with ruinous fees.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu May 2nd, 2013 at 08:24:43 PM EST

Re: The UK and the Euro (none / 1)

But the UK will never join the euro. Aside from the fact that the euro is doomed and seems, with the current political state of the EU, impossible to save.

Anyway, given the xenophobic tendencies of the Daily Mail, it is impossible for any imaginable government to even consider.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri May 3rd, 2013 at 12:02:12 PM EST

Re: The UK and the Euro (4.00 / 2)

Shorter article: UK has to join the euro or GTFO.

But no explanation as to why or what mechanism will prevent remaining in the EU even if the eurozone manages to pull out of the nosedive.

We used to hear similar things about Sweden's relationship to EU before the crisis. Then it was always from the pro-euro camp, but essentially the argument works for those advocating leaving to. That this dualistic choice does not exist and is unlikely to exist even if the eurozone establishes a euro-Treasury can be handwaved if your goal is to set up a conflict that you think benefits your side.

Say that the eurozone establishes a more federal state (with treasury) for eurozone-members only. Then I expect the parliament to get a eurozone-only committe to supervise and otherwise the whole affair will trott along, just as the UK has managed to have partial devolution.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri May 3rd, 2013 at 01:37:29 PM EST

Re: The UK and the Euro (4.00 / 2)

The argument is, essentially, that if the Euro does survive it will be by instituting among other things a fiscal union and a banking union and thus it will hollow out the policy functions of the "EU minus Euro". At that point, there will be little difference between being in the EU but outside the Euro, or being outside the EU (Like Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein).

The Euro will ~~outlive~~bury us all --- Jean-Claude Juncker

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 5th, 2013 at 04:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK and the Euro (none / 1)

The argument was made, for instance, by Wolfgang Münchau: Euro and trade will make EU irrelevant (FT.com, January 27, 2013)

What is the point of the EU beyond the eurozone? This is not nearly as flippant a question as it may seem at first sight. It is, in effect, the question Britain will ultimately answer if it has a referendum on membership. But since the preservation of the eurozone is turning into the EU's principal preoccupation, what is in it for a non-member such as the UK?
...
As a loud critic of the eurozone's crisis response, I am under no illusion about the speed of a secessionist single market. The current agreement for a banking union does not qualify. But the eurozone will ultimately end up with a proper union that covers all banks, and which includes resolution powers, deposit insurance - and usurps whatever is left of the single market for financial services.
...
Faced with the combined development of a eurozone economic union and a transatlantic free-trade zone, the added benefit of EU membership loses appeal if most of that benefit can be had outside. If one is absolutely certain that one will never join the eurozone, there really is not much of a point to being a member of the EU.

In the long run, we're all misquoted — not Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 5th, 2013 at 05:52:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK and the Euro (none / 1)

Migeru:

At that point, there will be little difference between being in the EU but outside the Euro, or being outside the EU (Like Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein).

And what the reason UK can't be in the EU in such circumstances? Phantom empire pains preventing it from being in a club with a B-class membership (unlike Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein)?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon May 6th, 2013 at 04:58:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK and the Euro (none / 1)

I don't see how this argument makes any sense. The UK economy is in the doldrums more or less exclusively due to bad fiscal policy. Joining the euro will permanent this bad fiscal policy. How is that going to help the UK?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon May 27th, 2013 at 03:46:46 PM EST

The UK and the Euro | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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The UK and the Euro

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