by Oui
Wed Sep 11th, 2013 at 03:00:32 PM EST
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[Update]: Putin's Op-Ed in the New York Times has been added below.
Universally it is seen the US has failed in policy towards Syria, the revolution and the analysis of Assad's overthrow. There is a reason only France is capable and willing to join Obama's military strike on Syria. As I have written the last two years and is repeated today in the US, Europe and the Arab states: US policy is confused and not credible. It's wonderful for Obama, the perception is otherwise within Washington DC and the 50 states. The decision to hold off a strike on the Assad regime has really pissed-off King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, the Emir of Qatar, Emirates, Erdogan in Turkey and Netanyahu of Israel. Obama has just set a break with 35 years of tradition in the Middle-East. The step Obama has taken is very courageous, we'll have to wait if it is rewarded with a positive result: a political solution to the civil/sectarian war in Syria. Obama is putting US National Interest first as recent Chiefs of Staff have asked.
Continued below the fold ...
In another excellent panel discussion on France24, short interviews were seen with Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran. Unheard praise for the US and Obama for taking the military action on Syria off the top priority list. It was suggested that Putin and Lavrov will, in the short term, propose a new offer in the nuclear armament stalemate. Mentioned was the offer to take high enriched uranium processing out of Iran and move this to Russia and under IAEA inspection. No doubt, Bashar Assad, Maliki and Iran are emboldened by the latest decison for diplomacy by PBO. I have said all along, a solution to the I-P issue must be comprehensive and include the greater Middle-East and Gulf region. Kerry needs a chance to work the diplomatic channels as senator Obama promised during his campaign in 2008.
How Putin Saved Obama, Congress and the European Union from Further Embarrassing themselves on Syria by Juan Cole
(Informed Comment) - The Russian initiative is not attractive because it seems practical or likely to be swiftly implemented but because it allows everyone involved to save face. Obama can look statesmanlike. He is already taking credit for Putin's move, saying it would not have come about without his own saber-rattling. The US Congress might be able to avoid the uncomfortable position of agreeing that Syria is guilty of chemical weapons use but declining to do anything about it.
The one good thing about this development is that it strengthens Russia's position with the Baath government of Bashar al-Assad and may lend new energy to Moscow's determination to broker a compromise between the rebels and the regime. Without a US or Western bombing campaign, the Syrian regime is likely just strong enough to hold on for years. The rebels' advance of last spring has stalled and in some places been reversed. Some sort of negotiation now seems likely.
[Update]
A Plea for Caution From Russia by Vladimir V. Putin
MOSCOW (NY Times) — RECENT events surrounding Syria have prompted me to speak directly to the American people and their political leaders. It is important to do so at a time of insufficient communication between our societies.
… The potential strike by the United States against Syria, despite strong opposition from many countries and major political and religious leaders, including the pope, will result in more innocent victims and escalation, potentially spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders. A strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism. It could undermine multilateral efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and further destabilize the Middle East and North Africa. It could throw the entire system of international law and order out of balance.
… Mercenaries from Arab countries fighting there, and hundreds of militants from Western countries and even Russia, are an issue of our deep concern. Might they not return to our countries with experience acquired in Syria? After all, after fighting in Libya, extremists moved on to Mali. This threatens us all. From the outset, Russia has advocated peaceful dialogue enabling Syrians to develop a compromise plan for their own future.
… No one doubts that poison gas was used in Syria. But there is every reason to believe it was used not by the Syrian Army, but by opposition forces, to provoke intervention by their powerful foreign patrons, who would be siding with the fundamentalists. Reports that militants are preparing another attack — this time against Israel — cannot be ignored.
It is alarming that military intervention in internal conflicts in foreign countries has become commonplace for the United States. Is it in America’s long-term interest? I doubt it.
