by A swedish kind of death
Tue Dec 2nd, 2014 at 04:31:06 PM EST
Tomorrow the new red-green minority government is facing a defeat in parliament as the four-party former government and the racist party have all declared that they will vote for the former government's budget. Or will they...?
Background, Swedish budgets
Since the crisis in the early 1990s Sweden's annual budget has been passed as the whole budget with the most votes. The basic practise has been that each party writes their own motion on the budget, then everybody votes for their own and finally the government's budget faces of against the largest opposition party's budget. The rest of the parties vote blank and the government gets their budget passed in parliament. However, this August, the four parties of the government then ruling tied themselves to the mast by declaring that they would stand together and vote for their common budget even if they lost the election in September (which they did).
If the budget falls
If the budget falls, the cabinet resigns. They formally don't have to, but they have declared that they will. And then we either have snap elections (which we have not had for decades) or a new government is formed from the same parliament.
Multi-party chicken race
So, who wins and who loses if there are snap elections? The polls are essentially the same as the last election result, and we have no common wisdom regarding snap elections here. All sides have weaknesses.
The left has failed to form a government. The right still lacks a party leader for Moderaterna (the main center-right party) and thus a prime minister candidate, though Kinberg Batra is shaping up as the unopposed candidate. Even so, she is largely unknown outside Stockholm. The right also contains the Christian Democrats that hangs precarious on the 4% limit in both polls and election results.
The Sweden Democrats (the racist party) would be the natural winners, having sown more chaos, were not their party leader ill. He has been absent since the election and he is almost the only one they have who manages to do dogwhistling without going home and writing what he really feels on Facebook. Cracks are also showing as the extremely centralised party is going with a party leader on sick leave.
Looking at the economic side, three parties have deep pockets: Moderaterna, the Social Democrats and the Center party (another part of the former government coalition). The rest normally builds up their election chests from state contributions during the non-election years.
Somebody backing down?
As I write this the press is camping outside the meeting rooms where the party leaders of the government and the former government are negotiating. Who will chicken out?