by A swedish kind of death
Sat May 31st, 2014 at 02:10:28 AM EST
We often hear about the great advances of the far right in the EP election, but seldom any concrete numbers. Now, I am a bit sceptical as we started hearing about this long before the election. Join me in estimating the numbers of MEPs each group will have after the sorting is done, and lets see if there really was a far right advance, and if so how big.
front-paged by afew
Now, what is the far right and what seats did they hold before. Luckily, we have already had this conversation and I am going to use DoDo's definition of the right of centre-right:
all right-of-centre-right forces (ECR+AfD, EFD, the FN block and Jobbik & co, and I won't exclude the Tories and ODS)
Which tallied 111 out of 761 or 14,6%. Of these 88 were ECR or EFD leaving 23 to the right of them. So I will divide new parties and non-inscrits along the lines of existing groups, racists and others. And then we add up the changes of the right-of-centre-right and the left of Greens.
Fortunately, wikipedia has already started counting the Group reshuffling. Now wikipedia has this rules about sources and stuff so when I take it from wikipedia I will add (wp), otherwise I will just use my common sense and your comments.
Starting with the new parties:
7 (AfD) ECR (wp)
1 (FW) ALDE (wp)
1 (Piraten) Green
1 (Tierschutz) GUE/NGL
1 (Familie) ECR
1 (NPD) racist
1 (ÖDP) Green?
1 (Partei) joke NI
17 (M5S) left, likely NI
5 (Podemos) GUE/NGL (wp)
2 (C's) ALDE (wp)
4 (KNP) EFD?
1 (Diaconu) ALDE? (That is his former partys home)
1 (PvdD) Green?
4 (ANO) ALDE
4 (TOP 09) EPP
1 (Svobodní) EFD
3 (XA) racist
1 (ANEL) ECR
2 (Potami) S&D (wp)
2 (MPT) Green
2 (SD) racist
1 (FI) GUE/NGL
2 (BBTs) anti-censorship NI?
1 (RB) EPP
1 (Nova) ECR
1 (OĽaNO) ECR (wp)
1 (Childers) Greens?
1 (Flanagan) anti-EU, pro-cannabis. Leftish NI?
1 (LVS) leaning EPP says their wp-article
And the parties already in the NI:
24 (FN-RBM) racist
1 (DUP) NI (Why are they not in the ECR?)
4 (UPyD) ALDE
4 (PVV) racist
1 (VB) racist
3 (Jobbik) racist
4 (FPÖ) racist
In addition, we have some switches. According to wikipedia PNL from Romania is switching from ALDE to EPP and Lega Nord is switching from EFD to a new racist group.
Seats and change from outgoing parliament, that is including MEPs added during the period (to be updated after my group guesses has been corrected)
|EPP||223 (-51)|| = 210 + 6 (PNL) + 4 (TOP 09) + 1 (RB) + 1 (LVS)|
|S&D||193 (-3)|| = 191 + 2 (Potami)|
|ALDE||63 (-20)|| = 59 - 6 (PNL) + 1 (FW) + 4 (ANO) + 1 (Diaconu) + 4 (UPyD)|
|ECR||63 (+4)|| = 46 + 7 (AfD) + 1 (Familie) + 1 (ANEL) + 1 (Nova) + 1 (OĽaNO) + 2 (PS) + 4 (DF)|
|Greens||58 (+1)|| = 52 + 1 (ÖDP) + 1 (Piraten) + 1 (PvdD) + 2 (MPT) + 1 (Childers)|
|GUE/NGL||50 (+15)|| = 45 elected + 1 (Tierschutz) + 5 (Podemos) + 1 (FI) - 2 (KKE)|
|Racist||42 (+19)|| = 1 (NPD) + 3 (XA) + 2 (SD) + 24 (FN-RBM) + 4 (PVV) + 1 (VB) + 3 (Jobbik) + 4 (FPÖ)|
|EFD||38 (+7)|| = 38 - 5 (LN) + 4 (KNP) + 1 (Svobodní) - 2 (PS) - 4 (DF)|
|Leftish NI||18 (+18)|| = 17 (M5S) + 1 (Flanagan)|
|Other NI||5 (+-0)|| = 1 (Familie) + 1 (Partei) + 2 (BBTs) + 1 (DUP) + 2 (KKE)|
These positions are largely stabs in the dark after looking at their wikipedia article, so go ahead and correct me were I am wrong. Before being corrected, this adds up to right of EPP: + 28, left of Greens: + 35. So the election is a swing from the centre, but more to the far-left then to the far-right. So much for the media narrative.
Update [2014-5-29 18:24:3 by A swedish kind of death]:
: ÖDP moved to Greens.
Update [2014-5-30 3:21:22 by A swedish kind of death]:
UPyD moved to ALDE.
Update [2014-5-30 4:41:58 by A swedish kind of death]:
Removed uncertainty on baseline for S&D
Update [2014-6-2 4:17:56 by Migeru]:
formatted group changes as a table
[Update] Moved around some parties in accordance with kataak's comment and new updates on wikipedia.