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My Call is Scotland to Vote Yes By A Good Margin

by ChrisCook Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 01:41:41 AM EST

Here from my Eagle's Nest in Linlithgow, in Scotland's Central Belt, I thought it would be rude not to chip in my thoughts as to next Thursday's referendum vote.

My first data points are historic election turnout figures in Scotland covering both UK & Scottish Parliament Elections.

Election Turnouts 1997 to 2011

Then there's the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election outright win for the SNP which the voting system had pretty much been gerrymandered to prevent. I assume that very few of those voting SNP in 2011 will either abstain or vote No.

frontpaged by afew


Note in particular the following. Firstly the 50% turnout in 2011 and secondly the fact that the SNP and Green vote combined (the Greens are backing Yes) almost reached 50% of those voting.

I am sure the turnout next Thursday will far exceed the 72.6% turnout in 1997 of a fairly Left-leaning Scottish population who were as taken in by Tony Blair as I was. I note the No Campaign have not yet called upon Blair's services, but the final week of the campaign is young.

I attended both annual events in Glasgow of the Radical Independence movement which has mobilised the Left to the common cause of Independence as a means of opening up a route to new policies they know will never be forthcoming from Westminster.

The energy and atmosphere at these events was phenomenal, bringing together as they did both the organised Left (our old friends the SWP in particular) and a huge contingent of disorganised Left, including me.

Everything I hear is that their well organised canvassing efforts at grass-roots level in working class areas have been turning many Labour voters into Yes voters as a purely tactical vote.

Note the Glasgow turnout of 40% in 2011: most people in Glasgow simply could not be arsed to vote for the Labour machine.

Then add to that a hugely energetic, well organised, brilliantly creative - and, thanks to that stealth tax on the poor, the Euromillions lottery, a well-financed and extremely professional Yes campaign throughout Scotland.

I think that firstly a significant number of 2011 Labour voters will vote a tactical Yes, and secondly that a majority of the additional 30% to 40% of voters who will turn out on Thursday will also vote Yes.

I say this because I think that No voters will be far more likely to have turned out to vote previously than will Yes voters.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Yes vote reaches 55% of those voting and possibly more.

Note that in the run-up to the 2011 election, the polls and the pundits were pretty off-beam, and I have a shrewd suspicion that the same is true now.

Display:
Thanks to the wonders of Twitter I've already been pointed to Dixon Jones on the Majestic Blog who regretfully says (he doesn't like his own conclusions)

Society Disagrees Scotland is 'Better Together'

I think that this analysis - which I haven't come across before - is best considered by the intellectual fire-power on ET than by me......

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Sep 12th, 2014 at 06:44:22 PM EST
I'll be distinctly unintellectual. Whatever the merits of the argument and data proposed, MajesticSEO is a big (and smart) internet marketing-backlinking operation. Years here of defending this place against commercial backlinkers (still ongoing) makes me irrationally and spitefully prejudiced against such enterprises.

Cave Tweetem ;)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 04:37:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is Google Trends predicting a Yes vote in Scottish referendum?

The polls are neck and neck, and the odds on the break-up of Great Britain have shortened enough to send panic through Westminster's halls of power.

But does the most ubiquitous modern-day seer - Google Trends - support the rising belief that Scotland is about to walk away from its 307-year union with England?

So to try and get a better idea of which way the vote might go, we dived into Google Trends, which has used the data from terms people are searching on the internet to predict everything from flu epidemics to global interest in Harry Potter.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 10:35:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He quotes SEO as saying
We predicted it correctly for the Mayor of London, and Obama vs Romney - so we do have a track of calling these things.
How does predicting the obvious (Obama vs. Romney) count as a track record?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 10:59:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that one certainly eluded the republican party and Fox

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 05:11:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not much of a challenge...
by Bernard on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 09:30:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by tjbuff (timhess@adelphia.net) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 07:50:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fortunately, I've reached my limit of 10 free articles and can't read it.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 08:30:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just clean out the cookies and give yourself a treat.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 08:35:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Been following polling analysis by James Kelly at his SCOT goes POP! blog.  He noted yesterday's ICM poll had Yes 40% No 42% when excluding Don't Knows.  

I find it hard to believe 18% of Scottish voters Don't Know how they are going to vote on Thursday.  My feeling is a goodly number should actually be put in the I Know How I'm Going to Vote And I'm Not Telling You category.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 01:02:19 PM EST
Ha'aretz
There is the threat of an independent Scotland becoming an isolated, quasi-authoritarian, xenophobic state and falling under Russian influence - a northern European Venezuela. That fear could well cause many Scots once they face the moment of truth to vote against breaking away. But even if they allow themselves to be carried away, once the excitement dies down the majority will want to remain part of a more open globalized community.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 01:27:07 PM EST
There is the threat of an independent Scotland becoming an isolated, quasi-authoritarian, xenophobic state

What planet do they live on?

That's precisely what Scots are voting to get away from.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 01:48:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do we know about fancies of the Scotish elites? Aren't they original lovers of Stonemason lodges and such?

This looks funny or ironic:

Why demand your independence from Britain only to insist on keeping your shackles?
by das monde on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 12:16:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is the threat of an independent Scotland becoming an isolated, quasi-authoritarian, xenophobic state...

Ha! Israel should know well about that part, at least. Projecting much?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 02:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
becoming an isolated, quasi-authoritarian, xenophobic state and falling under Russian influence

Isn't that a description of England? (Where Russian influence is Russian capital/oligarchs.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 03:27:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't that a description of England? (Where Russian influence is Russian capital/oligarchs.)

Or Italy? Slovakia? Hungary, anyone?  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 07:54:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes campaign open up eight-point lead in ICM Poll:

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 54% (+9)
No 46% (-9)



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Sep 13th, 2014 at 09:28:00 PM EST
'We will win.' Alistair Darling claims victory is in sight for no vote | Politics | The Observer

An Opinium poll for this paper puts the no campaign on 53% against 47% for yes, among those certain to vote and excluding "don't knows". Fewer than 3% of those on each side say there is any real chance of them changing their mind.

It would appear that the yes campaign now needs to win over all the "don't knows" and change some minds among fixed no supporters if Alex Salmond is to declare his dream of independence a reality early on Friday morning.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 01:45:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Stiglitz urges focus on Scotland's 'shared vision'

Nobel Laureate Professor Joseph Stiglitz has urged voters to focus on Scotland's future ahead of Thursday's referendum.

Highlighting the benefits that can result from independence and the opportunity an independent Scotland would have to invest in tidal energy, in childcare and to protect public services he urges voters to look beyond economic issues and to focus on whether our "shared vision and values, a shared vision and values that has increasingly departed from those dominant south of the border--will be better achieved through independence."

Warning of the impact Westminster decisions to privatise health services and charge for higher education will have on public spending in Scotland and the risk of the rest of the UK voting to leave the EU the world leading economist warns that "cutbacks in UK public support to education and health could force Scotland to face nothing but a set of unpalatable choices - even with Scotland having considerable discretion over what it spends its money on."

Responding to fellow economist Paul Krugman, Professor Stiglitz states that there is "little basis for any of the forms of fearmongering that have been advanced".



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 12:10:33 PM EST
Well, I think it is a fair point to say that the case being made by the yes campaign is a campaign one, and is disingenuous. I do believe that Scotland would have to have their own currency, and indeed would be silly not to (with perhaps a period of transition, or even accepting the sterling in many transactions, but borrowing in scotcoin). I do not particularly fault Krugman for pointing it out.

However, if one is to point it out, it is only fair to mention how the no campaign is entirely lying at every corner. It is, after all, a campaign pretending that in the doctrine of the Confidence Fairy lies prosperity and bliss, that pretends that voting no will preserve the NHS for Scotland while dismantling it for Britain, that relies on strange threats and promises of a full devolution that they would not let be on the ballot...
To be fair, Krugman never tires of rubbishing the Confidence Fairy doctrine, but it would be useful to remember that it is fully embraced by the three main parties currently desperate to get a no vote. OK, Krugman is an American economist who was deeply involved in the Euro debate and in describing the Eurozone debacle so I kind of understand where he is coming from, but Wren-Lewis should be more alert of what is going on in Westminster.

Either one just assumes that campaigning requires empty promises and then shrugs for either side, or both campaigns should be scrutinised.
Yes, what is sold by the yes campaign is not quite what they would deliver. But what is sold by the no campaign has been a con game for 35 years and counting.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 01:10:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lesley Riddoch writing in the Guardian:

Scotland has always had a dual identity. Since the Treaty of Union in 1707, its formal position within the UK has defined it as a relatively remote, small, infertile, leftward-leaning, homogenous, northern nation. But looked at differently, Scotland is the most accessible, second most populous, fertile, ethnically diverse and southern part of the Nordic region. Which reality would you rather inhabit?

(Can't get a link to work, for some reason.)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 01:35:57 PM EST
by Xavier in Paris on Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 04:31:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yes.  thanks.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 07:34:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting points. For a long time one of my contacts in Scotland has been telling me the Yes would have far more votes than expected and that Westminster was definitely in for a shock. That much has happened the past week...

I would ask you to clarify one thing: what is exactly the tactical move of Labour electors in voting Yes?

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 03:53:32 AM EST
I'd guess it's to pull Scotland leftwards - something that is clearly impossible while Westminster rules.

Following a Scottish yes vote, I'd like to see if we can get the rest of the-country-formerly-known-as-the-UK to declare independence from Westminster too.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 04:19:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely, in the case of a Left vote, Scottish Labour will be moribund, and a new mass party of the left is needed Because the political-spectrum-straddling act of the nationalists is a temporary illusion, and they will inevitably drift, or lurch, rightwards in exercising power.

So where are the candidate parties for the Scottish left?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 04:30:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would Scottish Labour be moribund in the case of a Yes vote (which is what I think you meant to write)?

They are the biggest opposition party, and once the question of independence has been settled that should be a good starting point.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 06:52:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, first of all this requires the refoundation of a specifically Scottish Labour Party, which currently does not exist. Supporting this new party would require some interesting mental gymnastics on the part of Labour voters who voted Yes, despite being lectured by the UK Labour leaders, including the Scot Gordon Brown, about the necessity to vote No. It would need to be significantly different in positioning and policies from its predecessor.

They are currently the biggest opposition party to the nationalists. But they are not a party of the nationalist left, and by my reckoning, that's what's needed.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 07:14:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not really. I think Scottish Labour has more loyalty to the ideals of Old Labour than to New Labour. So forming a new party won't be hard.

Messy, maybe. But not hard. If there are hold-outs, who will they be voting for? New Labour will be out of reach and down south in a different country.

As for being significantly different - well, yes, that would be the general idea, and it will be embraced with enthusiasm.

I doubt there's much local loyalty to Brown, Darling, or any of the former Labour-ites from the post-Blair debacle, so I don't see their presence as a problem.

Longer term, Wales will want to pull the same trick. Wales is a tougher case economically, but politically it's always been distant from Westminster for similar reasons.

So twenty years from now we could be left with a xenophobic fascist England and a wobbly Northern Irish rump. Except that I can't see the fascism lasting that long without outright descent into a police state, or violent racial unrest, or possibly both.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 07:23:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So twenty years from now we could be left with a xenophobic fascist England and a wobbly Northern Irish rump. Except that I can't see the fascism lasting that long without outright descent into a police state, or violent racial unrest, or possibly both.
a graphic novel written by Alan Moore and illustrated by David Lloyd.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 08:57:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Governing an Independent Scotland will be hard - as there are many nationalist illusions as to what that will entail - and especially if England is uncooperative.  A certain degree of popular disillusion will set in which it will be easy for an "I told you so" Labour opposition to capitalize on.

But independence is also irreversible - there will be no going back - and so there will be difficult choices about an independent currency and the Euro to consider.  The Nationalists will probably form the first 2 or 3 Governments, but after that they could splinter or be overtaken by others as they become the entrenched  new establishment party.  It is the natural evolution of a party system post independence. In Ireland, it has taken almost 100 years for the old civil war parties to lose their duopoly.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 09:55:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm reminded of the scene at the end of "The Candidate".

I think that Post Yes from Friday onwards - when the purpose of the SNP as a party has essentially been fulfilled - it will be about policy, not ideology.

I think that we will see policy-specific splits beginning to form within the SNP - most likely on issues such as Trident and Land Reform, not to mention the negotiations in relation to currency and so on, where the SNP's policy for a currency union of any description is simply unsustainable in my view.

I set out the approach I advocate to Scottish credit and currency recently at the Pieria site - Credit Scotland

We will probably also see some or all of 'Labour in Scotland' casting adrift the Westminster opportunists and careerists and setting their own course as a genuinely Scottish Labour.

I believe that there will be many hundreds of thousands of Labour Yes votes unlikely to vote for the SNP in 2016 unless they stay firmly away from pro-corporate and pro land-owner policies.

I do not believe Salmond is in control of the SNP, and consider that at best he has a veto. He is a brilliant, but flawed, politician - the best in the UK by far - but he is dis-inclined to detail and I do not think he is fragile in adversity. It is Salmond's team of Swinney, Sturgeon, and several other excellent ministers who will be key in the upcoming discussions.

I believe that there is an opportunity in Scotland to create bottom-up the first of a new breed of networked knowledge economies, and I will continue to work - as I have done for several years - with that aim.

But then, optimists only ever get unpleasant surprises.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 12:15:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is land reform on the agenda?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 01:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2014 at 10:58:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My funding formula for Scotland is a 'terrible mistake', Lord Barnett admits
The architect of a controversial funding formula for Scotland has described his own policy as a "terrible mistake" after David Cameron pledged to keep it despite a revolt from Tory MPs. The leaders of all three main political parties have pledged to continue using the formula, which sees Scotland receive £1,623 per head more than the rest of the UK, if Scotland votes to stay in the Union.

However Tory MPs warned the move could be voted down in the Commons, where Mr Cameron faces a potential "bloodbath" at the hands of his own party. Lord Barnett, the former Labour minister who devised the formula, said that the pledge to continue using it was a "terrible mistake".
<snip>
Another Tory MP warned that Mr Cameron faces a "bloodbath" in the Commons over the plans, while some MPs even suggested that a Yes vote would be easier than the huge constitutional change.


This wouldn't seem to help the No campaign. Is this Labour Lord deliberately trying to score points for his party by embarrassing Cameron and possibly aiding a Yes victory?

Could Cameron fall as a result of either outcome?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 03:30:45 PM EST
Could Cameron fall as a result of either outcome?

Matthew Norman thinks that he could

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 04:51:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Scotsman
Betfair is paying out to gamblers who have placed bets on a `No' vote directly with the company's sportsbook - those who have used the company's betting exchange are unaffected.

In a statement released on their Twitter account, Betfair wrote: "We are paying out on all Sportsbook bets on no in the Scottish independence referendum.

"Thanks to the accuracy of the data available on our exchange, we've decided that `no' is the most likely outcome in three days time."

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 03:53:46 PM EST
I have several Scottish friends and it' been interesting that a week ago I was seeing a lot of "Yes"-positive posts and likes in my feed.

Now, it's all "no"-positive. I can't help but wonder if somebody has paid FB to doctor their feeds in Scotland to "nudge" the result.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 04:54:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The chairman of Betfair turns out to be a major Cameron donor. So if the rest of the board have similar inclinations, they may be merely risking 2 million pounds to give a psychological boost to No.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 05:08:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why on Earth do betting sites pay out early?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 06:09:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
as a way of generating publicity.  I haven't heard of them getting it wrong yet.  They are currently offering 3:1 on the referendum passing and 2/9 on it failing...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 07:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I always say with respect to American football, Vegas doesn't have all those pretty buildings by being stupid.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 09:32:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The bookies represent a combination of weight of money, and their own view, following the polls and their own take.

In my view polls tend to lose validity at high turn-out levels as people with no phone, or no listed phone, vote. It's not clear to me what the polling methodology of these polls is.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:28:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Furthermore, the no listed phone category probably includes most of the 16 and 17 year olds, for whom they have  limited experience in polling anyway.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:14:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]




It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 03:35:11 AM EST
Wasn't he already free to go to Ecuador? Has anybody figured out the route he would use to go to Scotland?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 03:55:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On the vidcast in NZ the other night, there were loud drilling noises in the background whenever he spoke. Question : is it the SAS preparing to snatch him, or a tunnel to sneak him out?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 04:13:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From The American Conservative (by David Linsday. If you want to read Pat Buchanan's ravings about Braveheart, you'll have to search for it yourself)
Labour voters will decide this referendum, and the single most telling indicator of being a Labour voter in Scotland is being a practicing Catholic. There are pre-Reformation Catholic enclaves in the Highlands and islands, where their existence alongside very old school Calvinism does not translate into the sectarian hatred that is so often characteristic of the Lowlands, especially in and around Glasgow, where the huge majority of the Catholic population lives. The sectarian split in the West of Scotland has a relatively recent, sporadically ongoing history of extreme violence. Soccer games between the ardently Protestant Glasgow Rangers and the green-striped, shamrock-badged Glasgow Celtic (uniquely pronounced "Seltic"), jointly known as "the Old Firm", remain a matter of international concern, policed like military operations. Known little, if at all, in the rest of Scotland, the Orange and Hibernian Orders are both active and visible in the highly populous West.

As I suspect is not generally appreciated abroad, the Catholic Church is the single largest body of weekly worshippers in each of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Her adherents in England, Scotland, and Wales have no more reason to wish to go down the road of who is or is not "really" English, Scots, or Welsh than Ulster Protestants have to go down the road of who is or is not "really" Irish.

In all four parts of the Kingdom, ethnically Irish Catholics, thanks to their disproportionate involvement in the Labour Movement, have benefited disproportionately from a British social democracy heavily informed by Catholic social teaching. All eyes are now on their Scottish branch to save everything that they have created. Though it may not appeal to American Conservative readers, only social democracy is capable of safeguarding British sovereignty--One Nation, to cite both Disraeli and the present Labour leader, Ed Miliband.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 04:15:09 AM EST
Yes but catholic social democracy goes heavily against the more WASP inspired neo-liberalism dominant in England, and if there is one thing Irish ethnic (original) Catholics agree on it is that they like to run their own show. They are certainly torn by traditional labour (Gordon Brown's) call for Union and don't want to be run by a Calvinist Scottish ethic or an upsurge in sectarianism in Scotland. But right now those things seem to be in the background and it is the Calvinist Orange lodges who are demonstrating for Union.  My guess is that practicing Catholics will break for independence - the historical tensions just run too deep for anything else -  but I haven't seen on any polling on this.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 06:33:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My guess is Scotland will vote No, but it's not a strong feeling.  I don't have a good feel for Scottish attitudes.

They should vote no.  Yes, the Brits are a pain in the ass, and the notion of a country that boils steak continuing to impose their "fried chicken" on Scots should be enough to keep everybody awake into their 50s, and they wear stupid wigs in court because they're idiots.  

But Salmond and his crew are clowns who aren't qualified to run a...well, British fried chicken joint.

Again: It's the currency, stupid.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 08:39:49 PM EST
Yes, that's my feeling. The "Yes" campaign may well have won in terms of getting their argument across, but that argument, such as it was, was framed in entirely emotional terms.

At no point, despite Chris Cook's optimism, did I ever get a sense that Salmond had any plan for what he'd do if he won much beyond a big piss up over the weekend.

And the No campaign kept hammering at that, asking awkward questions. Getting no clear answer much beyond "we'll sort that out when we've won, now stop spoiling everyone's day". Or STFU with a shaken fist in the face (as seems to have happened a little too often for a lot of people's tastes).

Much tho' I empathize with CC's enthusiasm, my view it that, while it would be magnificent if his ideas were under serious consideration by any prospective Scottish government, they aren't really listening to him, or indeed anybody who asks questions or makes serious suggestions about how the economy is going to work after independence. It's a question of economic competence, and the Yes leadeship obviously do not possess any and seem to get very grumpy when that is pointed out.

So, it could have been yes. It probably should have been yes. But no is the sensible answer.

In my view, 6 hours before polls close, the Yes campaign spent 2 years snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Frankly, it was a wide open goal and they missed

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 11:58:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be nice to think that someone learned something about politicians making believable specific promises before voting for them, but I am not even sure that this has been the case in the USA after six years of Obama. Time for the Scots to take the same test.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 12:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No idea who is going to win tomorrow and neither does anyone else.  Polling is 48/52 Yes/No - a statistical tie.  My guess the winning margin, either way, will come from the 800,000+ voters the Yes Campaign registered and have been ignored by the pollsters Likely Voter screens.

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 09:56:18 PM EST
My guess is that turnout is  going to be critical. The no vote is going to need to turn out the senior vote in order to win, and the weather in Edinburgh looks to be poor.  This could make all the difference.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 10:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Spectator
Debating some of this yesterday with a Nat on Sky it was put to me that one benefit of independence might be that Scotland could become a kind of Switzerland. Perhaps that is what the Nats are after. But that idea is what upsets and angers me most.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 02:27:53 AM EST


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