Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 01:41:41 AM EST
Here from my Eagle's Nest in Linlithgow, in Scotland's Central Belt, I thought it would be rude not to chip in my thoughts as to next Thursday's referendum vote.
My first data points are historic election turnout figures in Scotland covering both UK & Scottish Parliament Elections.
Election Turnouts 1997 to 2011
Then there's the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election outright win for the SNP which the voting system had pretty much been gerrymandered to prevent. I assume that very few of those voting SNP in 2011 will either abstain or vote No.
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Note in particular the following. Firstly the 50% turnout in 2011 and secondly the fact that the SNP and Green vote combined (the Greens are backing Yes) almost reached 50% of those voting.
I am sure the turnout next Thursday will far exceed the 72.6% turnout in 1997 of a fairly Left-leaning Scottish population who were as taken in by Tony Blair as I was. I note the No Campaign have not yet called upon Blair's services, but the final week of the campaign is young.
I attended both annual events in Glasgow of the Radical Independence movement which has mobilised the Left to the common cause of Independence as a means of opening up a route to new policies they know will never be forthcoming from Westminster.
The energy and atmosphere at these events was phenomenal, bringing together as they did both the organised Left (our old friends the SWP in particular) and a huge contingent of disorganised Left, including me.
Everything I hear is that their well organised canvassing efforts at grass-roots level in working class areas have been turning many Labour voters into Yes voters as a purely tactical vote.
Note the Glasgow turnout of 40% in 2011: most people in Glasgow simply could not be arsed to vote for the Labour machine.
Then add to that a hugely energetic, well organised, brilliantly creative - and, thanks to that stealth tax on the poor, the Euromillions lottery, a well-financed and extremely professional Yes campaign throughout Scotland.
I think that firstly a significant number of 2011 Labour voters will vote a tactical Yes, and secondly that a majority of the additional 30% to 40% of voters who will turn out on Thursday will also vote Yes.
I say this because I think that No voters will be far more likely to have turned out to vote previously than will Yes voters.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Yes vote reaches 55% of those voting and possibly more.
Note that in the run-up to the 2011 election, the polls and the pundits were pretty off-beam, and I have a shrewd suspicion that the same is true now.