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Scottish Referendum Open Thread

by afew Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 02:46:24 AM EST

Today's the day. Use this as an open thread on Scotland and all things Scottish. But, please, no photos of Braveheart.


Display:
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 02:47:20 AM EST
This IS more like it. Slainté, Scotland.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 03:16:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll see your Caol Ila, and raise you a sunset at Talisker Bay, 29th August


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:17:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
oh, and can't resist this one, also on Skye at Kyleakin, right beside the bridge

Lots of European history here, and Scottish independence : this is where King Haakon IV is alleged to have assembled his longboats before the Battle of Largs, which ended Norwegian dominion over western Scotland.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:33:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh, I think I stayed at the hostel that is part of that pub back when I was in Scotland.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 03:07:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have a bottle just like it - still awaiting the day I get to see CH again!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:18:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have a bottle of 12 years old close to me. And I didn't wait...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:41:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I found a MacAllan 1980 (half full), and a Lagavulin (1980) almost empty. Which should I start with when Yes is announced?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:46:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lagavulin is my favorite... have one for me...


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:57:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
why choose?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:19:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whisky purveyors weigh in on Scotland vote - Features - Al Jazeera English

Campbeltown, Scotland - At the end of the tortuously winding roads of Kintyre peninsula, almost hidden in between the rows of houses, pagoda-style chimneys of dilapidated distilleries peek out revealing the ruins of the former "Whisky Capital of the World."

One of the most remote towns in Scotland, Campbeltown's heyday began in the Victorian era with booming shipbuilding and coal-mining industries, also hosting more than 30 whisky distilleries that later fuelled the illegal smuggling routes into Prohibition America.

Gradually these industries declined, as did Campbeltown's fortunes, and the distilleries fell silent. One of only three survivors, the Springbank Distillery recently declared its full-throated support for Scottish independence, its political allegiance fitting for one of the only independent distilleries remaining in the country.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 03:06:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly my Paps of Jura are lost in a corrupted file. Tears for my corrupted Paps.

Whatever happens, there will be many people unhappy tonight. Perhaps a few songs in the minor key.

I salute my friends in Glasgow, Mallaig and Portree on all sides of this. All will be well.

I have traveled a bit, and never found warmer welcome or better conversation than in Scotland. That will not change.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson

by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:28:33 AM EST
So what's the general feeling? I'm guessing a No vote, as the human tendency to weight potential losses higher than gains prevails.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:57:44 AM EST
Not trusting the polling, because of the unprecedented nature of the voting event

But I tend to think the same. Fear of change and the desire for the protection of the strong, or those that project a reassuring authoritarian image. Same shit in the NZ election campaign...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:02:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is very unclear to me what the youth vote will be. It is difficult for an American to even comprehend that 16 year olds are voting. (Although I personally would put suffrage at 12.)

Beyond that, I have no handle on this. My Ecosse crowd are all SNP, old Clydeside lefties and anarchists, not very representative.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson

by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:10:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, almost everyone with a vote I know on Facebook seems to be a Yes, but that's possibly just a little unrepresentative. For a start, most of them are blow-ins rather than natives
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:36:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We should all vote on Facebook! Why not? American foreign policy is decided by spinning the dial - let's play Twister, let's play Risk.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:46:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's been my feeling all along. I remember the big hopes with Quebec independence, and in the end, faced with the ballot, people come down on the "safe" side.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:36:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No offense intended, but does Quebec really have the historical, cultural, intellectual heft of Scotland? Just as a matter of time.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:48:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think length of history matters. People may go on about it, but it isn't actually palpable. My point was that the Quebec Independence movement appeared to have the wind in its sails, but...
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 08:40:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
[ET Moderation Technology™]

Entirely inappropriate warning rating from stevesim.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 01:38:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
[ET Moderation Technology™]

Rating wiped.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 05:01:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My thinking too.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:11:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Polls have a statistical tie (48/52, within MOE) with No having the edge.  A supposed advantage for Yes is their grassroots GOTV operation while No is relying on existing party organizations.

The Yes Campaign registered 880,000+ voters.  Who knows how they will vote, if they vote.

It can go either way.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 11:44:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  photo art_big20_zps64bdbc51.jpg

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:02:43 AM EST
Even Colbert's version of Braveheart?

"That's right, Scotland could actually secede. I didn't even know they had slaves."

According to the BBC, the final result will probably arrive between 6:30 and 7:30 in the morning. Running totals will probably arrive between 3:00 and 6:00, though bad weather may delay results from some of the more remote islands. Recounts will be allowed only in case of problems with the process, not because of close results (so much for expectations that the House of Lords might get the final vote - though nobody thought the US Supreme Court could decide an election before it happened).

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:24:46 AM EST
It is hard to believe that results from Hirta will provide any sort of cliffhanger. Unless there is some landslide, we will be waiting on G and E.


Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:41:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is one of those extremely interesting voting events for which the phrase "the whole world is watching" seems entirely appropriate. I have no articulable connection to Scotland, yet I and any number of similarly situated family and friends have been discussing this for some time and waiting for the vote the way kids wait interminably for Christmas.

And now, TOMORROW.

And if the vote is "yes," the story will get even more interesting.

Good luck to everyone, and thanks for the "entertainment."

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher

by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:10:45 AM EST
A question for the English here, maybe:

If Scotland leaves, does that not leave the remnant British parliament far far more right wing?

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson

by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:18:58 AM EST
All things being equal, yes. But all things won't be equal: a Yes vote is going to lead to all sorts of constitutional chaos in the successor states to the UK. What does Northern Ireland do? They're already starting to rework their legislative set-up for internal reasons, what would  side-effects be on that. There's an election in UK soon enough. Cameron will be gone. I'd say constitutional arrangements might be up for grabs.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:24:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Free Cornwall

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 07:00:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Must be fun not to have a Constitution.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 08:19:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But all things won't be equal: a Yes vote is going to lead to all sorts of constitutional chaos in the successor states to the UK.

Not to mention the Commonwealth. A vote for independence still leaves Elizabeth as queen of Scotland.  If London decided to play hardball, this is going to be one of the levers available to them.  Royal assent is technically required for all sorts of things.  Start playing at that and you're going to give a great big gift to the Republican movements in Australia and Canada.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 12:53:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Royal assent is technically required for all sorts of things.  Start playing at that and you're going to give a great big gift to the Republican movements in Australia and Canada.

uh ...

Good?

I don't 'get' the whole monarchy schtick.  A system of venereal transfer of political power may or may not have made sense in 1327 but it sure as heck doesn't make any sense in 2014.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 01:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My comment was in response to colman's about the constitutional carnage indendence brings.  My point was that this is going to extend to the Commonwealth.  Onnce you open these arrangements to change there are no guarantees as to what you will get.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 02:03:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regretfully I have to concur with the consensus here that it will probably be NO, much as I respect Chris Cooks prognostication skills. It might well have bee a yes a week or two ago, but then the establishment and "international community" all came down uniformly for a NO vote.  

Quite what standing Bill Clinton has to comment I don't quite know. And as for Rajoy claiming it could take 8 years for Scotland to be admitted to the EU, what is the basis for this?  That is the sort of comment that puts the EU in disrespect, not to say disgrace.  

What possible logic can there be to make an erstwhile member wait 8 years to re-enter in their own right? It just shows the degree to which bureaucratic wrangling and obfuscation have become the guiding principle of EU decision making - for some - although my view has always been that it is quite remarkable how far the EU has come on the basis of consensual decision making.

Frankly I think it is all bluff and nonsense, but that does not mean it won't have it's intended effect - to increase the fear and uncertainty associated with a Yes vote. I fear a narrow NO vote could have a very negative effect on comity within Scotland, especially as it becomes clear how little positive change "Devo-max" actually brings for most people.

Without good leadership, this could still have quite a sour outcome.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:31:33 AM EST
Note that Cameron already has opposition in his party to his promises.
Claire Perry, the rail minister, has become the first Conservative front bencher to join the growing rebellion over promises to give Scotland more powers regardless of today's referendum result by warning against `promises of financial party bags'.

She attacked the pledge made by the three main parties to maintain the current level of funding for Scotland and devolve local tax raising powers as hardly "hardly equitable" to the situation in England.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:34:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yay. My local MP. And a thoroughly unpleasant career pol, with some bizarre beliefs.

She was also instrumental in setting up Internet censorship in the UK.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 07:33:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I feel your pain.  GOPers unleashed redistricting, and now my congressman is Steve Southerland.

Most liberal city in the damned state represented by a Teabagger.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 07:39:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
as for Rajoy claiming it could take 8 years for Scotland to be admitted to the EU, what is the basis for this?  That is the sort of comment that puts the EU in disrespect, not to say disgrace
The only disgrace is Rajoy's.

I don't know why nobody's making the point that, since the acquis already applies in full in Scotland, it should be possible to negotiate the transition seamlessly. After all, it will take over a year for the UK itself to get its affairs ready for secession.

But Rajoy has to scare the Catalans somehow.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:35:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is indeed the advantage: Since Scotland starts on day one of independence with the full acquis, most negotiation chapters should only need a logical second. So they could concentrate on currency, the old british opt outs and special scottish wishes.

Of course the EU has to be flexible and start negotiations with a not yet independent scottish goverment.

by IM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 12:42:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He may not be the author of quite all our woe, but given Clinton's role in creating much of the mess in which we find ourselves, it is not clear to me why he has such a voice even in the US. Why anyone in Europe would listen to this southern fried blowhard is beyond me.

Surely Scotland can listen to its own counsel, its own heart. Americans - Clinton, Obama - are all about this Hope nonsense. Forget hope and dreams and all this folderol - Act.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson

by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:46:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why anyone, anywhere, listens to the southern fried, snake oil selling, blowhard is beyond me.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 01:17:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One really wonders what effect the outsider blathering will have. My state recently voted to legalize both the sale of recreational marijuana and gay marriage. Exhortations from out of state were most unwelcome; any from out of country would have been considered an outrage. Very different matters I admit.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 02:35:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tbh I don't think they give a toss what anyone else thinks

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 02:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 09:41:57 AM EST
That's exquisite.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 01:26:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2am - North Lanarkshire - 6.3% of the population (yes)
2am - Perth and Kinross - 4.2% (no)
2am - Western Isles - 0.5% (yes)
3am - Aberdeenshire - 4.8% (no)
4am - Fife - 7.1%
4am - Highlands - 4.4% (no)
5am - Glasgow - 11.5% (yes)
5am - Edinburgh - 8.8% (no)
5am - Borders - 2.2% (no)
6am - Aberdeen - 4.2% (no)
So if the times and the relative estimates are correct, yes should peak around 5am and go down a bit after that.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 11:50:33 AM EST
Frankly I am appalled by the quality of the "journalism" wrt to this referendum (being a pessimist, this has beaten my very worse expectations). I do understand that private news sources have their assumed bias and that is fine (I will not even going to discuss the Beeb here). I would expect newspapers like the Guardian to take the editorial position that they have took, BUT, what about all that stuff about "facts are sacred" and etc?

I am seriously considering not reading the Guardian anymore. I simply stopped trusting their ability to be informative and impartial on their "facts" part. The same for the Telegraph (which I also read).

by cagatacos on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 12:05:18 PM EST
Some of the editorial writers at the Guardian have questioned the papers stance as well, believing that the paper's role is to question Establishment authority, not bolster it.

That said, I think that much of the problem is that, until the last month, the story has been that "no" was gonna walk it, so it remained a story of local interest with no national, let alone international, "legs". No need to examine prejudices, no need to examine issues, no need to pontificate with any seriousness.

This meant that, despite the sense north of the border that the gap was closing, last weeks poll showing Yes in the ascendancy took the whole London media by surprise.

So, it's no surprise that their collective response has been inadequate.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 01:53:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Salt to taste.

Scotland referendum: Canadian team sees `Yes' win amid large voter turnout:

A Canadian team of voter-contact experts working with Scotland's Yes team is forecasting that Scots will vote by as much as 54-46 in favour of independence when the final vote is tallied early on Friday morning.

"I believe they're going to win," said Mike O'Neill of the Canadian voter-targeting firm First Contact, which has been doing data-modelling work with two academics, one of them Canadian, to profile likely Yes and No support in Thursday's referendum.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 01:33:40 PM EST
Interesting and to this American at least informative discussion between Billy Bragg (yes) and Sam Wetherell (no) on Amy Goodman's show yesterday: http://www.democracynow.org/2014/9/17/debate_should_scotland_vote_for_independence

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 01:44:27 PM EST
Link to Scottish Independence data map.

(h/t to Jeff Singer at dKos)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 03:14:18 PM EST
From Diarmuid Scully @dscullylimerick regarding the IpsosMORI walkback:

"quoted on 5-7 Live Rte Radio 1. Given age class and gender divide in polls the variance from turnout likely to be significant"

Context: Ipsos/MORI announced their pre-election polls were "no longer valid if turnout hit 80%."

source

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 03:34:21 PM EST
Huh? I thought that there were already predictions of turnout like this a few weeks ago. How did they just notice?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 03:55:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They botched it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:07:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How can you set a narrative if you admit you're talking rubbish?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:07:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And they are still talking rubbish.  No spokesidiots are quoting exit polls indicating a 50%-something No win.  Despite the fact there isn't any exiting polling.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:16:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Guardian on this issue:
Why no exit poll for such a momentous and consequential vote? The first possibility is that no one thought the vote would be close, and so deemed it as not interesting enough to be worthy of the spend.

More likely, hopefully, is that the broadcasters were afraid of the consequences of a poll being wrong: if the BBC spends four hours discussing a poll that's 51-49 in favour of yes, and when the final votes come in the result is no, deputy heads may roll amid the backlash.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:26:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm with Drew: how do you poll an electorate that has never existed before on an electoral form that's never been carried out there on a question that doesn't resemble normal decisions? Forget it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:12:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rumors of a "tsunami of Yes" voters in postal balloting floating around the Internets.  If so, Chris' prediction of a Yes win starts looking more plausible.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:12:43 PM EST
Um. Postmarked Brigadoon?

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mostly postmarked "The Excellently Reliable News Source Commonly Known as Twitter."

We'll know in an hour or so.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:30:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From The Guardian:
Scotland has the population of Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island combined.
Let's just hope the Scots can count votes better than Brooklyn. And that the outcome doesn't resemble Staten Island's vote for independence.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 04:39:13 PM EST
Well, yes, there certainly are a lot of people waiting impatiently for results. YouGov can't even handle the traffic: "We apologise that we are temporarily unable to service your request. Please try again in a little while."

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:47:11 PM EST
For what it's worth, BBC is claiming over 50% turnout before noon, disgracing for one the United Snakes which couldn't crack 60 the last time it elected a national m c to host our next few wars.

Good on them for demonstrating how it is done.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson

by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 05:51:54 PM EST
Scots are such Protestants, giving a 110% and all.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:01:07 PM EST
"Fog in the Western Isles delays ballots." What a shocker. There are some sheep on the bridge too.

This headline prompted my first shot of Talisker.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson

by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:08:52 PM EST
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:12:17 PM EST
This referendum goes up to 11! (times 10%)

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:15:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 06:20:04 PM EST
Nick Robinson is fucking awful.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 07:08:58 PM EST
Yes, sin't he?

Doesn't even pretend to impartiality. He has deep roots in the Tory party and I've never quite understood how he got his job.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 02:04:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The clue is in your last sentence.

Cynically unsurprised by the result. Opted for 'Not gonna happen' when asked a couple of weeks ago, purely because of realpolitik.

I thought the odds of the Establishment giving up oil money, a forward nuclear base a long way from London, and god only knows how many acres of prime golf course, country estate, and grouse shooting territory made 'Yes' very unlikely.

'Yes' would have been terribly inconvenient. So.

Still a bit of a scare though. And there will be fall-out, which will be interesting.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 07:05:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, but hasn't the BBC been chewing this cud for 25 years now?

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 07:40:39 PM EST
Newgloucesterochkenshire is in.  54-46 for no.

ATinNM -- BOOM.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 08:42:43 PM EST
Looks like.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 09:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It looks like these days, the only Europeans who value being free are Russians.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns
by Alexander on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 09:45:08 PM EST
Dirk in the heart from the Western Isles. It's going down.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. -- Dr Johnson
by melvin (melvingladys at or near yahoo.com) on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 10:05:51 PM EST
A Hard Night

I can't pretend not to have been disappointed by the Clackmannanshire result, especially as I am here with some wonderful people who have put months and years of their lives into campaigning heart and soul.

But the count was fascinating. Professional Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem politicians working and socialising together and dressing the same. Tory ladies in pillar box red clothes and Lib Dem councillors in Labour Party rosettes. All braying and congratulating each other in the same voices, and looking smug and very happy together.

We are not winning tonight's battle at the moment, but the battle lines have now become clearly defined between the single establishment of the media and all the political parties, and almost half the people - so far who want an alternative political structure. This is a stage in a process, and in its clarity and scale a major advance.



A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns
by Alexander on Thu Sep 18th, 2014 at 10:24:58 PM EST
Yes, that's my take on how it has been seen north of the border, the biggest loser in the long term will be the Scottish labour party, for whom this may be the last gasp.

The Tories are effectively dead in Scotland, but by allying themselves with the tories, Labour may have demonstrated how far they have abandoned their own people. I doubt that will be forgotten.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 01:57:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
almost half the people

Could be well over half -- if you include those who would really prefer independence but were afraid, due to various reasons and the lack of a positive program from SIP.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 10:28:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News - Scottish referendum: Scotland votes no to independence

Scotland has voted to stay in the United Kingdom after voters decisively rejected independence.

With 31 out of the country's 32 council areas having declared after Thursday's vote, the 'No' side has an unassailable lead of 1,914,187 votes to 1,539,920.

The winning total needed was 1,852,828. Nationally, the margin of victory is about 55% to 45%.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 01:52:00 AM EST
Scottish referendum results: David Cameron set to unveil major devolution of powers to England - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

David Cameron is preparing to announce a major devolution of powers to England following the Scottish independence referendum result.

With the tide appearing to be moving heavily towards a No vote, he is expected to call for a fresh review of whether only English MPs can vote on English issues.

Early today, Michael Gove, the Tory chief whip, said: "We need to look again at the arrangements that look after the interests of people who live in the majority of the UK. The PM will in particular be spelling out some ways forward which will allow Westminster to change how it operates in order to ensure the interests of English voters are effectively protected - indeed enhanced."

He says Clegg "very astutely" acknowledged the need for this in the past few days.

Mr Cameron's initiative follows the joint promise by Mr Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg to hand more controls to Holyrood in the event of a No vote.

ToryKIP England wins, with LibDem and Labour help.

Westminster will not get the giant kick up the arse it deserves.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 01:54:54 AM EST
Ah, but in order to save the situation, they've made promises they can't keep. There will be consequences.

Westminster may not have had its short sharp shock, but the consequences may be vaster and more slow

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 02:03:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And if you're right about Scottish Labour, rUK Labour may not be able to form a government without the SNP, which will make sure that they keep Cameron's promises.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 04:38:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can just see the SNP slogan for the next election now - Vote SNP to ensure the others keep their promises...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 10:08:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Due to the "constitutional" ordering the UK, I do not see any kind of consequences really. The system is highly centralized and it is very difficult to re-do that. Also, redoing that would involve the whole of the UK (e.g. regional decentralization).

The Scots will learn that it was between Westminster or independence, with no real in-between. Even if Cameroon delivers on his promises (which he really can't without parliamentary support),  there is nothing to avoid a future parliament to undo all that.

Imagine what a future Thatcher (a real one, not the wobbly guy that is there now) will do to "devolution".

by cagatacos on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 10:47:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a good point, one of the bonuses for the Tories having no representation north of the border is that they can break promises with no electoral consequences.

Indeed, it will be Labour, the lesser partner in the Tory lies, who will be punished. Double plus good for Cameron

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 12:11:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't understand this argument. Yes did get 45%. That is the combined SNP and green vote. So why should Labour be affected?
by IM on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 01:49:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The issue is one of perception. Labour have tended to tret Scotland as just a set of bankable constituencies where they don't have to work had. The reality is that as Westminister politics track to the right, it generally means less and less to Scottish voters.

The conservatives have effectively ceased to exist north of the border wile Labour, since Blair, are not trusted to be reliably sympathetic to the working classes and are, consequently, electorally much more fragile than they imagine.

So, come the independence debate, it wasn't hard to see Labour's leading of the "better together" campaign as them simply being good little tory messenger boys rather than being a party with a view and message of their own.

Such a perception is going to damage them with their own supporters who voted yes and increase their fragility.

Salmond's resignation this afternoon clears the path for his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon to take over. She is widely regarded as being noticeably to the left of Salmond who can begin to eat into Labour seats. It's also noted that the Greens are picking up north of the border and may also be able to eat into labour.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 03:03:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but he pointed out correctly that the actual percentage the SNP got in the vote for the Scottish assembly is very close to the Yes vote. So if some of their supporters voted yes, then either some SNP supporters voted no, or the new electorate was heavily weighted to the No side. To discuss this in any meaningful way, we need some analysis of the actual vote, not guesses based on polling.

The SNP moving left is more important, and, as far as Westminster is concerned, the question is how seriously the SNP will contest Labour seats.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 03:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't forget that many SNP supporters supported devo max rather than full independence and may therefore have ended up voting no without feeling any sense of disloyalty to the party as Salmond had also wanted Devo max on the ballot paper. Labour voters who voted yes meanwhile actually broke with the party and perhaps the habits of a lifetime.

The SNP only got 20% of the vote in the last Westminster Parliament election (2010) and got only 6 out of the 59 seats on a 64% turnout. So the extra 20% turnout clearly broke in their favour especially when you consider that Labour stronghold Glasgow actually voted yes.

If the SNP get anything like the 45% of the vote they got in the last Scottish parliament election they will clearly greatly increase their Westminster representation - and mostly at Labour's cost.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 05:35:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Compared with the last Westminster election. Not compared with the last Holyrood election. Nothing changed there.  
by IM on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 06:30:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I intentionally avoided trying to compare with the Westminster election because it is so difficult to compare first-past-the-post with PR. (How many people voted SNP/Labour to keep out  a Tory/LibDem/Respect candidate?). But I agree with your point about Dexo-max.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 06:35:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
About the broader view...

I think that we are at a, if you want to call it, Fourth Turning ("Winter is coming"). The system is broken and dysfunctional and something will happen to "correct" it.

A possibility would be a relatively benign change in the national ordering in Europe (Scotland, Catalonia, ...). Good or bad, the whole Scot thing was relatively benign. The Catalan thing can get nasty, but still there would be a possibility that it would be peaceful.

I think that there is a lot of pressure in the system (with a ruling elite more and more detached from the populace, ecological/energy pressures, demography, ...). Something is going to break somewhere.

If you look at the previous winter, this can be very benign (say Roosevelt and the New Deal) or something like Hitler, Mussolini, Franco or Salazar.

Where is this going to break? I think the next breaking point is still going to be nationalism, but this time this might be not fluffy.

My bet: France and Marine Le Pen.

by cagatacos on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 11:21:11 AM EST
On ET it is generally accepted the status quo isn't working for the 99% and there's no chance of it ever working.  In this we seem to be "ahead" of the majority of voters in the US, EU, UK, etc., although not "ahead" of the entire populations of those entities.  It seems clear to me (& YMMV) we've seen push-back to the status quo from the Right.  The Scottish Independence referendum seems, to me, to be the first from the Left.  If that's accurate then we've got cause for celebration: 45% Yes is miles (or kilometers) ahead of what the RW, e.g., UKIP, has been able to muster.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 03:30:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that those 45% will go nowhere now (this was an one-off referendum with little consequence).

Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage (among others, see, e.g. Sweden) will have several attempts. As things go in France, I would be worried.

by cagatacos on Fri Sep 19th, 2014 at 04:22:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The SNP only got 20% of the vote and 6 seats in the last (2010) Westminster election.  If they get anywhere near 45% next year they could increase their seats by c. 30 and have a major influence on the Westminster balance of power.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 05:39:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll get Sarkozy 2. I'm pinning my hopes on AfD.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 06:15:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You who enter here, abandon all hope.
by IM on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 06:25:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sarkozy is far from a done deal at this stage. Juppé has a good chance, and would get more votes in a run-off against Le Pen than Sarko would.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 07:37:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
six and half a dozen
by IM on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 10:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean Sarkozy-Juppé or Sarkozy-Le Pen?

And how many does Hollande score?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 04:57:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sarkozy and Juppé. As far as I remember Juppè was sarkozy avant la lettre. The others are almost half a dozen and a good half a dozen.
by IM on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 01:22:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Juppé was Chirac's lieutenant and took the rap instead of his boss for the abuse of Paris City Hall in Chirac's rise to the presidence. He's been pretty low-key for years, and even before that, I'd hardly describe him as a Sarkozy type. I can't remember offhand a case where he pulled a Sarko trick like stirring up racial resentment and security fears - at least, it's not his trademark. He's much more likely than Sarko to federate conservative, centrist, and moderate left voters, in a run-off against Le Pen.

The idea of having to vote Sarkozy to keep Le Pen out of power would have many leftwing voters considering suicide. Particularly as Sarkozy has done so much to make Front National ideas "respectable".

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 03:43:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The idea of having to vote Sarkozy to keep Le Pen out of power would have many leftwing voters considering suicide.
But they would do it, while a recent poll showed right-wing voters would vote for Le Pen rather than for Hollande in a second round.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 04:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless unicorns come down from the sky, Hollande won't reach Round Two.

Leftwing voters might decide they had to vote Sarkozy, but I think more of them would vote Juppé. How many rightwingers would choose the real thing over the Sarko ersatz in a Le Pen/Sarkozy run-off is moot.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 04:47:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Will Hollande be the candidate of PS or will they have the good sense to run someone less disliked?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 03:11:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's nothing but speculation on that for the moment. If the PS runs a primary, Hollande won't win it (unless unicorns etc...). Valls obviously has high hopes. Montebourg and Martine Aubry would probably want to have a try.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 03:40:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aubry is the obvious candidate -- she nearly beat Hollande in the primary last time, and has kept a low profile, out of government, since. Her candidature would amount to a repudiation of the Hollande years.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 08:33:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 06:05:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Alternative für Deutschland, so Eurozone continuing downwards until Germany bolts.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 04:25:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany leaving the Eurozone is the only breakup scenario that doesn't lead to total meltdown.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 04:02:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Economically, yes.

Politically? It will be the mother of all political disasters, the ur-katastrophe of the 21st century.

I can imagine few worse disasters than Germany leaving the Eurozone. Another half a decade of horrible austerity is better.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 08:22:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another half decade of austerity is going to kill somewhere between one and five hundred thousand people.

You could, literally, drop an atom bomb on Stockholm and it would be less harmful than another five years of austerity.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 10:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If needed, we would know how to control population numbers humanely in mid-term...
by das monde on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 07:03:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be better than Marine Le Pen taking France out of the Euro, both politically and economically.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 11:34:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Catalan thing will get nasty, if only within Catalonia (when Artur Mas betrays the hopes he has been stoking for the past 2 years and allies with the Catalan Socialists to avoid early elections (which he would resoundingly lose) after he's forced to cancel plans for a referendum.

There are other scenarios, but all involve "unrest".

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2014 at 06:25:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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