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Greek referendum day open thread

by Migeru Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 01:59:42 AM EST

Politico EU: Tusk: ‘Nobody here is an angel’ (3/7/15)

No matter how Greeks vote Sunday, the EU is looking for ways “to keep them inside” the single currency, though that may require “a completely new” approach to allow the eurozone to coexist with a bankrupt country, Donald Tusk told POLITICO.

Striking a notably conciliatory tone, the European Council president called on Athens and its creditors to stop the mutual “blame game,” work to “rebuild trust” and promptly resume negotiations after the July 5 referendum in Greece.

“The main aim for us is to keep the eurozone united,” he said.


In this series:

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Interfluidity: Greece (4 July 2015)
It is difficult to overstate how deeply Europe's leaders betrayed the ideals of European integration in their handing of the Greek crisis. The first and most fundamental goal of European integration was to blur the lines of national feeling and interest through commerce and interdependence, in order to prevent the fractures along ethnonational lines that made a charnel house of the continent, twice. That is the first thing, the main rule, that anyone who claims to represent the European project must abide: We solve problems as Europeans together, not as nations in conflict. Note that in the tale as told so far, there really was no meaningful national dimension. Regulatory mistakes and agency issues within banks encouraged poor credit decisions. Spanish banks lent into overpriced real estate, and German banks lent to a state they knew to be weak. Current account imbalances within the Eurozone -- persistent and unlikely to reverse without policy attention -- implied as a matter of arithmetic that there would be loan flows on a scale that might encourage a certain indifference to credit quality. These were European problems, not national problems. But they were European problems that festered while the continent's leaders gloated and took credit for a phantom prosperity. When the levee broke, instead of acknowledging errors and working to address them as a community, Europe's elites -- its politicians and civil servants, its bankers and financiers -- deflected the blame in the worst possible way. They turned a systemic problem of financial architecture into a dispute between European nations. They brought back the very ghosts their predecessors spent half a century trying to dispell. Shame. Shame. Shame. Shame.

Until the financial crisis, people like, well, me, were of two minds about the EU's famous "democracy deficit". On the one hand, I believe that good governance requires accountability to and participation of the broad public. On the other hand, before the crisis, I was willing to cut the Euro-elite a lot of slack. I'm an American born in 1970, but my life is largely framed and circumscribed by events in Europe during the Second World War. I grew up on a diet of "never again". I am writing these words from my grandfather's villa on the Romanian Black Sea, which my mother worked doggedly to recover in an act of sheer vengeance for what this continent's history did to her father. I was inclined to support Europe's democratic fudges when they were about diminishing and diffusing the still palpable possibility here of reversion to ethnonational conflict. To see European institutions deployed precisely and with great force in the service polarization across national borders has radicalized and made a populist of me (as have analogous betrayals among the political leadership of my own country). If I were Greek, I would surely be a nationalist now.

...

I think the explanation is quite simple, though. Having recast a crisis caused by a combustible mix of regulatory failure and elite venality into a morality play about profligate Greeks who must be punished, Eurocrats are now engaged in what might be described as "loan-shark theater". They are putting on a show for the electorates they inflamed in order to preserve their own prestige. The show must go on.

There's a lot more quotable in the piece. Go read it.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:10:52 AM EST
The comments below however are pretty uniformly depressing.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:49:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. 40 years of TINA brainwashing is a hard flow to swim against...

As I mentioned before, the parallel between Syriza and the Popular Front in 1936 France is striking. I hope that Syriza will be rather longer-lived.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:22:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think this is a really dangerous time for Syriza as a party.
The referendum is going to be very close and I can see either result fracturing the party in two.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:33:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
it would be quite surprising if the Yes does not have a strong lead.

In any case Syriza troubles will be nothing compared to EU's ones.

I believed, EU would manage to survive few more years sacrificing one more generation of its youth but not any more, end of this nightmare could be near pretty fast.

France's large youth population will be the big winner of Euro's end ( Germany's DM would then reach fair value at 2 USD & 2 Francs, stopping the current desindustrialisation), especially is this posted workers insanity stop too.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 05:10:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
fredouil:
In any case Syriza troubles will be nothing compared to EU's ones.

Yes, if you owe the banks a few bucks it's your problem. If you owe billions it's the bank's problem.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 06:35:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My personal hope is that a No vote will create such a perfect logjam that the Powers What Is will have no choice but to start over from scratch.

But then I always was a hopeless romantic.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 10:51:55 AM EST
Greek referendum: Varoufakis says deal can be reached in 24hrs if vote is a 'No' - live | Business | The Guardian
Our correspondent Helena Smith has learned that sources close to the EU commission in Brussels are estimating that the NO vote could be ahead by 8 -10 points.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:02:08 PM EST
Greek referendum: Varoufakis says deal can be reached in 24hrs if vote is a 'No' - live | Business | The Guardian

A flurry of opinion polls conducted by Greek TV stations are hitting the wires, and they are all putting the No side ahead of the Yes side:

We need to be cautious - these are not full exit polls.

But it's important to note that they are ALL suggesting that the people have voted to reject the bailout conditions demanded by Greece's creditors:

All four polls shown on the live-blog show a narrow No lead in the range of the uncertainty.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:11:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:22:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Either I can't read polls or the Greeks can't add. I suspect the former. The way I read these polls is akin to an athlete promising he will give 110%.
by Upstate NY on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The diagram shows ranges (median result minus and plus margin of error) for three polls.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:41:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greek referendum: TV station polls put no vote in the lead - live | Business | The Guardian

Greece's Interior Ministry has released an official projection, showing that the no side is set to win by 61 percent.

That is a landslide result for the government, which had urged people to reject the bailout proposals made by lenders.

Wow! Now that looks better. If that holds, why have four polls gotten the same wrong result?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We wondered about that in the UK recently and never received a definitive answer.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:12:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We Americans have gotten quite used to election results that are absolutely disengaged from polling. And this is dangerous.
by Upstate NY on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:23:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy flying fuck!  The "bad guys" are used to getting their way via fear or bombing ... and now this! Democracy in action. This can't be allowed to stand ... just watch.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:24:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greek referendum: Varoufakis says deal can be reached in 24hrs if vote is a 'No' - live | Business | The Guardian

Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has warned that the German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble faces a big hole, of several billion euros, in his budget planning if Greece leaves the euro. He issued the stark warning to the German government in a cabinet session last Wednesday, German newspaper Handelsblatt reports, citing a government source.

The Bundesbank has made provisions of €14.4bn to deal with the fallout of the eurozone crisis, but this would probably not be be enough in a case of a Grexit, the paper said.

Weidmann warned that the costs of a Grexit would hit Bundesbank profits, which flow into the German budget. Schäuble has factored in a Bundesbank profit of €2.5bn a year.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:04:09 PM EST
Greek referendum: Varoufakis says deal can be reached in 24hrs if vote is a 'No' - live | Business | The Guardian

Germany's Spiegel newspaper has the inside line of how Angela Merkel reacted last weekend to the news that Alexis Tsipras had called today's referendum,

It says an exasperated Merkel told the inner circle of her CDU party that his politics were "hard and ideological" and that he was "driving his country to the wall, with open eyes".

Spiegel says that the quotes have been confirmed by several participants of the meeting at the Konrad Adenauer House in Berlin, last Monday. It added she was flabbergasted that he could "play roulette with an entire country".

If that's true, she has a rather twisted view of what she has done to Greece over the past half decade.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:07:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hopeful Start to Greek Debt Negotiations Quickly Soured - The New York Times

THENS -- Last Friday morning, the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, gathered his closest advisers in a Brussels hotel room for a meeting that was meant to be secret. All the participants had to leave their phones outside the door to prevent leaks.

...As Mr. Tsipras paced and listened on the 25th floor of the hotel, his top aides argued that neither Germany nor the International Monetary Fund wanted an agreement and that they were instead pushing Greece into default and out of the euro.

The night before, at a meeting of eurozone leaders at the European Union's headquarters, Mr. Tsipras had asked Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany about including debt relief with a deal, only to be rebuffed again.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Stop lying to the Greeks -- life without the euro is great - MarketWatch

Will the euro-fanatics please stop lying to the people of Greece?

And while they're at it, will they please stop lying to the rest of us as well?

Can they stop pretending that life outside the euro -- for the Greeks or any other European country -- would be a fate worse than death?

Can they stop claiming that if the Greeks go back to the drachma, they will be condemned to a miserable existence on the dark backwaters of European life, a small, forgotten and isolated country with no factories, no inward investment and no hope?

Those dishonest threats are being leveled this week at the people of Greece, as they gear up for the weekend's big referendum on more austerity. The bully boys of Brussels, Frankfurt and elsewhere are warning the Greek people that if they don't do as they're told, and submit to yet more economic leeches, they may end up outside the euro ... at which point, of course, life would stop.

Bah.



'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:34:55 PM EST
This the best commenter on Greece, in Greece, since Talos dropped out of sight (hey MrT!)

How Europe Played Greece

Do these things, they said, for all our sakes and you will return to prosperity with our help. They lied.

"They have decided to strangle us, whether we say yes or no", said a Greek woman to me yesterday. "The only choice we have is to make it quick or slow. I will vote "oxi" (no). We are economically dead anyway. I might as well have my conscience clear and my pride intact." 

Her view is not atypical among friends and relations I have canvassed in the last few days. Trust has evaporated. Faith in European Institutions is thin on the ground. Lines have been crossed. At times of financial strain, a country's currency issuer, its central bank, should act as lender of last resort and prime technocratic negotiator. In Greece's case, the European Central Bank, sits on the same side as the creditors; acts as their enforcer. This is unprecedented. 

The ECB has acted to asphyxiate the Greek economy - the ultimate blackmail to force subordination. The money is there, in our accounts, but we cannot have access to it, because the overseers of our own banking system, the very people who some months ago issued guarantees of liquidity, have decided to deny liquidity. We have phantom money, but no real money. There is a terrifying poetry to that, since the entire crisis was caused by too much phantom money in the first place.

I like Byline.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:37:25 PM EST
This referendum will actually be clarifying for all Syriza factions.
by Upstate NY on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:39:45 PM EST
I wonder.

Let's not forget that Syriza and ANEL gained government majority thanks to the non-proportionality of Greece's election system (with the bonus seats for the largest party): Syriza's and ANEL's combined vote was 41.1%, against 45.7% for the other parties that made it into parliament. So on the face, winning the referendum confirms the widening of support. But the Nazis also supported the referendum and the Communists kind-of, and if we add up those numbers (not to mention far-left parties outside parliament), the anti-austerity camp actually narrowed a bit. So if the polls are confirmed, Syriza won, but by a margin narrow enough to allow different interpretations.

Beyond Greece, a narrow result means those playing for regime change can still cling to their hope that another final push will do the trick.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:50:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was actually referring to the party itself. It gives them more direction.
by Upstate NY on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 01:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I got that you meant the party itself. What I was saying was that a narrow result is unclear enough for the different strands of the party to interpret it differently, and that expectations about creditor's possible reactions can blur visions further.

However, now it looks like the voting-day polls were all wrong and No won a resounding victory, after all – so your optimism may yet be justified.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:17:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Come on, Greece.  Vote this austerity bullshit out.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 12:56:47 PM EST
We Americans are so "to the point". Screw the flowery language.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:29:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Website with results

2 years to go !
by pi (etrib@opsec.eu) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 01:50:09 PM EST
At 19:56: roughly 60 to 40 for "no".

2 years to go !
by pi (etrib@opsec.eu) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 01:56:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:06:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now 42% counted and No surpassed 60%.

It's official: the majority of voters in Greece withstood unprecedented blackmail. The Shock Doctrine hit a bumper.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:37:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I love to be proved wrong. Greater motivation and mobilization in the NO camp? An good campaign effort even? Backlash from the European backlash?

So, now the pertinent question: who is going to accuse the 'corrupt Greeks' of doctoring the results?

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:54:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Game on!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:08:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the first time ... in a VERY LONG TIME ... I'm proud to be a human.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:31:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Guardian's semi-mirror page is a bit better in colour-coding the Yes/No balance for each region. No leads everywhere, the narrowest is 50.9%. The No lead in Korfu and two of Crete's four regions beat Syriza's main base, the Athens region.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:29:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It doesn't show turnout, however. According to the official site, it is just below 60%, so about four points below the January elections. But I suspect this number will change as the count progresses in cities.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:32:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I expected: it's now 80% counted, and both turnout and the share of the No vote are edging closer to 62%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:20:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greek Referendum | The Irish Times

Comfortable No victory on the way: Latest voting update puts the No side on 60.6 per cent and the Yes camp on 39.3 per cent.

Not a landslide for the No side but a comfortable 60/40 split now appears almost inevitable, provided the demographics of votes counted so far are not skewed in some way.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:10:51 PM EST
While the press was full of reports of a possible SYRIZA breakup, here's what actually seems to be happening.
Demands are growing for Antonis Samaras, the main opposition leader and former prime minister to step down as head of the centre-right New Democracy party following the apparent victory of the `NO" vote, reports Helena.
The former finance minister Dora Bakoyannis has called Samaras demanding that he steps down with immediate effect, several media outlets are reporting.

There are signs that some traditional New Democracy party supporters deliberately voted no (when the party had urged Greeks to vote yes) out of protest against Samaras who has refused to resign.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:14:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Beat me to it. The last paragraph is, of course, an attempt to explain the defeat away: it's about Samaras's bad leadership (rather than the bad positions he took).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:25:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU "can do business with"

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:20:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Not a landslide", LOL. During the day, the pro-Yes English-language MSM interpretation moved from "after all the noise, looks like a low turnout, will Tsipras cling to power after losing?" to "turnout like in elections after all but a cliffhanger with no results until midnight" to "narrow No victory that only shows the country divided down the middle", and now this.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:22:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:47:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that Syriza have come from nowhere in the past few months, a 60%+ popular endorsement of their leadership and policies is pretty impressive.  What would Podemos give for a result like this?  What would Europe's centre right and social Dem establishment have given to avoid it? Except, of course, they were outmaneuvered by Tspras' call for a referendum. Varadkar: It's like the student union has taken over Greece
Minister for Health Leo Varadkar has said it is like the Greek government has been taken over by a student union during the ongoing debt crisis.

Varadkar had better get used to it...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:14:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian
One official has told Reuters:

"No way. (The ministers) would not know what to discuss."

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:33:48 PM EST
You see the Ministers have to be told by their officials what they can discuss before they can discuss it...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:22:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:34:03 PM EST
Merkel to meet Hollande in Paris on Monday for talks on Greece | Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Paris on Monday afternoon to discuss the result of the Greek referendum with French President Francois Hollande, a German government spokesman said on Sunday.

"The talks with the French president from 630 p.m. (1630 GMT), and over dinner will be about a common assessment of the situation after the Greek referendum and the continuation of the close German-French cooperation on this subject," said Merkel spokesman Steffen Seibert in a statement.

by Bernard on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:53:57 PM EST
Will Hollande now undo the damage he did by joining the synchronous declarations that a No vote means Euro exit, and start a push-back against the force-Greece-out-of-the- Euro camp? I'm not holding my breath.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:24:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Syriza to Hollande:

(1789-1799) - Histoire de l'Assemblée nationale - Assemblée nationale

« La Nation assemblée ne peut recevoir d'ordres », et Mirabeau ajoute : « Nous ne quitterons nos places que par la force des baïonnettes. »

(A classic quote from the times of the French revolution.)

by Bernard on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:44:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When you see that the two French european voices are Holland & Moscovici, one facepalm is not enough.What a pathetic useless out of place bunch.
Shame.
by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 10:13:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a good day.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 02:54:52 PM EST
We needed some good news these days and oh boy, is that one! I can't remember a vote having faced such unbelievable levels of threats, blackmail, bullying... And yet it was not close to being close.

I had no plans to drink tonight but Ouzo must now flow!


Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:06:21 PM EST
No ouzo here but wine made by honest folk here in the southern parts of France will do the trick.

Hollande will be drinking Vichy water.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:27:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've got wine, Crown Royal, VO sitting around gathering dust for years ... I'm sorry I don't drink anymore but the victory is still sweet.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:37:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After his failed coup d'état, surely Schaüble must now resign.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:19:54 PM EST
Expanding on that : the majority of the Eurozone leaders now have a huge credibility problem. They proclaimed that a "no" vote meant automatic exclusion from the Eurozone. Their bluff is called, and they're holding a busted flush.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:23:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the optimistic interpretation. The pessimistic one is that they will now either execute an extra-legal throw-out of Greece from the Euro ("we warned them, it was their choice!") or use the levers of the ECB to try to force the Greek government to declare Grexit on its own.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:27:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But the cost would be extraordinarily heavy. They would have to explain to their taxpayers that, the Greeks having been forced to default on their debts, they will have to replace the vanished billions.

If they are serious finance ministers.

No, they will go with some variation of extend-and-pretend. Just watch them.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:34:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They would have to explain to their taxpayers that, the Greeks having been forced to default on their debts, they will have to replace the vanished billions.

That's easy: blame it all on the evil Greeks. It works, it has worked to explain away the failure of the 'bailouts' and the need for new bailouts over the past five years.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:37:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My take on this:

This is no longer a Greek problem. Shortly, there will be an Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and whoever else has been forced to 'accept' austerity as the price of remaining in the Euro problem.

The Greeks collectively called the bluff of the ECB.  They have just told the world that they reject the philosophy of 'the beatings will continue until the morale (economy) improves' (also known as 'Austerity'). The ECB shut down their economy for a week, motivating and propelling the NO vote a resounding victory.  (If I was a Greek going to the polls today I would be asking myself what else can they do to us to make life more miserable than it is now?).

My understanding was that this 'austerity' package was supposed to only last two to three years, it now seems to stretch to infinity.

Unless the Germans get off the austerity boat and onto the stimulation boat, the Euro is going to break up like an iceberg.  

With this vote, the Greek problem (but not the pain) just ended, The Problem of keeping the EU together has just begun.    

by NvDem (EdGoodrich( at) gmail (well you know the rest)) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 10:21:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My understanding was that this 'austerity' package was supposed to only last two to three years, it now seems to stretch to infinity.
With a debt-brake constitutional amendment in Germany since 2009, and exported to most EU countries since? Fat chance.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:30:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, austerity is now the official economic consensus, codified in law.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:36:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Worse than that, it's understood by legal acholars to be the spirit of the law. You just have to look at the last couple of ECJ opinions on cases brought against the ECB by Germans, even if the court found in favour of the ECB.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:43:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that, what chance would Greece have if an injunction against ECB is sought from court?
by fjallstrom on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 09:06:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The point of the lawsuit could be to lay bare a lot of evidence for the court of public opinion.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 09:08:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, and that is good in itself.

But since you appear to have read the ECJ opinions on cases brought against the ECB by Germans - which I haven't - it was also a sincere question if there is any chance in getting an actual injunction.

ECJ establishing some measure of control over ECB would imho be a good thing, since ECB is out of control.

by fjallstrom on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 09:12:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The ECJ has given the ECB "considerable latitude in the conduct of monetary policy", so who knows...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 09:31:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They've been bullshitting since the beginning, and they have all the keen reporters of the MSM on their side, so for sure they'll bullshit.

It's more likely that it'll be in the direction you suggest, though, than the hard line. It's going to be more and more difficult for the average keen reporter to go on pretending that the Eurowhatsit is playing nice.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:40:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Aljazerra America is covering the results ... fun shit!

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greek referendum: No vote on track for landslide victory - live updates | Business | The Guardian

German economy minister Sigmar Gabriel told the Tagesspiegel newspaper that this no vote makes it hard to imagine talks on a new bailout programme with Greece.

And he accused Alexis Tsipras of having "torn down the last bridges" which could have led to a compromise:



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 03:59:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Tsipras turns out to have been supported by 60% of the Greek electorate, that rhetoric is going to be quickly buried.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This was told in reaction to the 60%, with the anti-democratic subtext that those 60% are idiots fooled and misled by Tsipras.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:04:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah. Do you think it'll work, as bullshit goes? Tsipras the great manipulator (this is Tsipras that they've all tried for months to depict as a bumbling naive amateur...)?

All that remains is Siggie Gabriel is calling the Greeks idiots. Bild will like it, but elsewhere in Europe, will it get far? I doubt it.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, what to do about Germany?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:28:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What to do about the rest of Europe? As long as a Pro-Austerity Unity Front defends the same line, always finding non-German sharp-shooters like Dijsselbloem or Kažimír (I refrained from quoting his drivel in the last few days), German politicians and the German media can maintain the illusion that they defend Europe.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 10:29:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As for reporters: while The Guardian's live-bloggers resorted to treating financial analysts as oracles and quote their percentage estimates of the probability of a Grexit, Süddeutsche published an op-ed calling for "showing Greece the door" to "protect Europe". The elites (which now clearly include the MSM, Fourth Estate LOL) are in self-reinforcing denial mode.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:03:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They probably will be. But the mask looks more and more hollow.


I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The masks are going to slip off altogether...
by Bernard on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He then adds:
"Tsipras and his government are leading the Greek people on a path of bitter abandonment and hopelessness."

Mmm how is this Tsipras and his government? It seems to me that Tsipras did not reject the offer outright -he put it to a referendum.
And, apparently, the Greek people did not have a very strong inclination to accept, as evidenced by their resounding no despite shocking bullying, blackmail and campaign of lies to promote a "yes" vote.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:08:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Syntagma on Friday night was the happiest crowd of nihilists I've seen in a long time.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:27:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Schäuble is more popular than ever in Germany.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 05:00:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Crucially, more popular than Merkel. Which narrows Merkel's options.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:14:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...are we to the gods



I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 04:01:28 PM EST
by das monde on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 07:13:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 04:59:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NSA Leak Reveals Both Merkel And Schauble Saw Greek Debt As Unsustainable Even After Haircut | Zero Hedge

Overnight, in another perhaps even more relevant to the current quagmire in Greece leak, Wikileaks has released another intercepted NSA communication between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her personal assistant reveals that not only Merkel, but Schauble, were well aware that even with a debt haircut (which took place in 2012 but only for private creditors and whose impact was promptly countered with the debt from the second bailout) Greek debt would be unsustainable. Technically, she did not use that word: she said that "Athens would be unable to overcome its problems even with an additional haircut, since it would not be able to handle the remaining debt."

She was right. And yet here she is, telling Tsipras and the Greek people that all Greece needs is to comply with the existing program when she knows well by her own admission that Greece is insolvent in its current state - precisely what Syriza is arguing and demanding be part of any deal.

Because why bother making a deal if Greece will once again be in default a few months down the line, just as Varoufakis said earlier today.

But where it gets really humorous is where the cable notes that even "Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble alone continued to strongly back another haircut, despite Merkel's efforts to rein him in... with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde described as undecided on the issue."

Fast forward to today and now Lagarde is decided, and the IMF admits a 30% Greek haircut is necessary. So, one wonders, why is Syriza getting hell for pushing what both Germany in 2011 and the IMF now admit has to happen in order to have a viable Greek nation. Unless, of course, they don't want a viable Greek nation, and instead want a vassal state that is constantly on the brink of collapse and thus creating enough systemic risk to constantly push the EUR lower.

Because, just in case anyone has forgotten, the real issue here is not the fate of Greece or even the rest of the PIIGS, but how can Germany continue enjoying a currency that is substantially weaker than what a far stronger, and export-crushing Deutsche Mark would be at this very moment.



'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 05:05:04 PM EST
It always feel weird when you have to agree with Zero Hedge...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 05:18:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by cagatacos on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 05:22:57 PM EST
But this is the best news in years. Watching the polis go into contortions now how best to spin it is simply... delicious.

This is one time when i wish i had more time to comment, celebrate, and even pundificate. I only hope, this brings a fresh wind to ET, because this night is truly a signal that we're not dead yet.

I really believe this opening will allow previously silenced voices to reappear on the political landscape. the powers of Yurp have earned this defeat, and the media which does their bidding has some crow to eat. How they work to make sure they don't eat any will be a treasure to watch.

C'mon ET. Third Wind rulez.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 05:27:29 PM EST
First comment: Hooray.

Second comment - what Crazy Horse said: '... fresh wind to ET,...". And hooray for ET.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 09:16:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by das monde on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 07:10:15 PM EST
Greece's Yanis Varoufakis prepares for economic siege as companies issue private currencies - Telegraph

Greece has stockpiled enough reserves of fuel and pharmaceutical supplies to withstand a long siege, and has set aside emergency funding to cover all the country's vitally-needed food imports.

Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, said the left-Wing Syriza government is still working on the assumption that Europe's creditor powers will return to the negotiating table if the Greek people don't agree to their austerity demands in a referendum on Sunday, but it stands ready to fight unless it secures major debt relief.

* Time for Europe to face reality: Greece needs mass debt relief now

"Luckily we have six months stocks of oil and four months stocks of pharmaceuticals," he told The Telegraph.

Mr Varoufakis said a special five-man committee from the Greek treasury, the Bank of Greece, the trade unions and the private banks is working feverishly in a "war room" near his office allocating precious reserves for top priorities.

Food has been exempted from an import freeze since capital controls were introduced last weekend. Grains, meats, dairy products, and other foodstuffs should be able to enter the country freely, averting a potential disaster as the full tourist season kicks off.

The cash reserves of the banks are dwindling fast as citizens pull the maximum €60 a day allowed under the emergency directive - already €50 at many banks. "We can last through to the weekend and probably to Monday," Mr Varoufakis said.



'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 07:54:08 PM EST
Where, do you think that funding will come from to cover stockpiling beyond the four to six months?

Unless the EU quickly gives reasonable terms to the Greeks to stimulate their economy, I see Athenian overtures to Moscow and great consternation on the part of NATO and the USA (not to mention Ukraine and others).

My guess is that, without significant concessions from the Banks over loan terms relatively quickly, the Greeks will be content to get nice big loans from Moscow to keep their economy afloat, subsequently moving into Moscow's sphere of influence, and easing a Euro exit as the ECB will have proved themselves intransigent by that time.  

The ECB and the Germans have six months to get less hard headed and save the world.

Scary, isn't it?

by NvDem (EdGoodrich( at) gmail (well you know the rest)) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 10:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do the Russians have the money to lend? Will it rather be China instead (though possibly via Russia)?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 01:19:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Exports and tourists" Greece has an economy, and is so insanely depressed that anything which causes any kind of uptick will put it solidly in primary surplus. If Greece is simply going to go "Sovereign Default, capital controls. Debts? What debts?" they don't really need fresh loans.
by Thomas on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 01:56:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greece's Yanis Varoufakis prepares for economic siege as companies issue private currencies - Telegraph

For now, Syriza and EMU creditors remain poles apart. Mr Tsipras is sticking to his campaign line that a "no" vote would simply be a stage in the negotiating process, while the European side is stepping up warnings that would mean Grexit and an economic cataclysm.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission's chief, said the negotiations have expired and that Greece is on its own. "The Greek position will be dramatically weakened by a No vote," he said.

Mr Varoufakis dismissed this as pre-vote bluster. Behind the scenes, there are signs that Europe's leaders are preparing a fall-back position if Greece votes no. "Unofficially, we are getting very interesting proposals, through by-ways and back-alleys," he said.

If there is a "no", Syriza will agree to reforms - never really in dispute - and to austerity provided that there is a big enough debt restructuring to restore the economy to long-term viability. "It will have to be a legal contract," he said, adding that the Greeks have already been burned once by pledges of debt relief in late 2012 that came to nothing.



'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 07:58:33 PM EST
melo:
Mr Varoufakis dismissed this as pre-vote bluster. Behind the scenes, there are signs that Europe's leaders are preparing a fall-back position if Greece votes no. "Unofficially, we are getting very interesting proposals, through by-ways and back-alleys," he said.

I'm not sure he is being entirely honest there: I would only say this in public if I wanted to promote suspicion and distrust between the members of the European Pro-Austerity Unity Front.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 12:51:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
h/t to Futile Democracy

What's next?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 08:06:07 PM EST

Calm, confident, competent and articulate! I think he's got this...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 08:07:54 PM EST
Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis resigns despite referendum no vote | World news | The Guardian

The Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has quit, despite the country's decisive rejection of the eurozone's terms for the country remaining in the single currency

Varoufakis, who infuriated eurozone leaders and recently compared Greece's creditors to terrorists, said the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras told him to go, after pressure from European leaders.

Announcing his resignation in a blog post entitled "Minister No More!" he wrote:

"Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants [Eurozone finance ministers], and assorted `partners', for my... `absence' from its meetings; an idea that the prime minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today.

"I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday's referendum,"

"And I shall wear the creditors' loathing with pride."

Fallen on his sword, for the greater good.

Next step : corral the leaders of the Greek opposition into participating in the negotiations, and owning the result. Syriza's message : "Creditors, you can negotiate with whoever you want. But we have the majority, and the support of the people".

Varoufakis's victory: he has gamed the creditors.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 02:44:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The creditors just lost another excuse to not engage.

Now Varufakis should be used further as a hawkish voice. And when is the President of Greece's Central Bank up for re-election? The ultimate coup would be to name Varoufakis to that post.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 04:57:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yannis Stournaras was appointed in 2014. So 2019 I guess?
by fjallstrom on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 09:09:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or whenever he is tossed in prison for corruption.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jul 9th, 2015 at 10:23:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I put Varoufakis's resignation in its own Greek referendum aftermath open thread.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 05:29:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bob Dylan - It's Alright, Ma Lyrics | MetroLyrics
Pointed threats, they bluff with scorn
Suicide remarks are torn
From the fool's gold mouthpiece the hollow horn
Plays wasted words proves to warn
That he not busy being born is busy dying


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 08:46:09 PM EST
A Blast from the Past



"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jul 5th, 2015 at 09:13:56 PM EST
One question that occurs to me: Isn't the ECB acting illegally and contrary to its mandate? Then shouldn't it be possible to sue before the ECJ?
by generic on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 05:05:51 AM EST
Yes, that is a definite possibility.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 05:10:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An ECJ decision would be a great comfort in ten years time, I'm sure.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 05:21:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be great in 2017 in the middle of the French and German election campaigns.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 05:26:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Greek government already threatened an injunction if IIRC ELA ends altogether. I hope that is more than a vague threat and their legal team has prepared drafts for the eventuality. I repeat my view that whatever actual financial decisions will be taken (acceptance of some compromise, parallel currency, temporary euro exit, permanent euro exit), this path should be walked down to the end, even if just to counter the blame game.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:20:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Incidentially, what's happening in China? My Twitter feed keeps muttering about Greece masking something big there.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:00:16 AM EST
Reuters: China curbs IPOs, enlists brokers in all-out bid to end market rout (July 5, 2015)

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:24:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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