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And the offer is: Nothing and worse

by rz Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 03:08:14 PM EST

It is my impression that still many are assuming that somehow the Eurogroup or Germany are bluffing. This seams for me to be a huge miscalculation. We should consider a couple of important facts. Lets start with the general policy directions of all European leaders but those of Greece:

  1. All European leaders agree that a specific set of structural reforms are necessary to create a strong economy and reduce unemployment. Especially it needs to be easer to fire people.

  2. All European leaders agree that government spending needs to be reduced. On the speed of the reduction there are certainly differences, but in total there is agreement.

The fact that there is total agreement on this points certainly creates certainly a strong feedback loop which makes this an absolute truth.

Now what about the European people. Here we also might not have an anti-austerity majority in the Eurozone. Especially in eastern europe* it seams possible that large majorities support the current Eurozone actions. And while 5 Stars and Podemos are going strong, they are far away from being able to capture the governments of their respective countries.  

Now the results to the Oxi, is become more visible. Nothing. The European Central Bank has now imposed extra conditions for the collateral of Greek Banks, so the Banks are not going to open any time soon.

Hollande and Merkel have met and their message to Greece is clear: Nothing.

I am not sure where all this is going but it is not good.

Update [2015-7-7 3:33:19 by rz]:*: an informative take on the 'Central European' political situation from Dodo from another threat:

First my usual geographical sidenote: I assume you meant the part of Central Europe east of Germany (and shifted Russia to Asia :-)).

If we look at the Eurogroup, you have

the Baltic states, all of which have gone through different levels of hardcore austerity, massive emigration and have US-groomed neoliberal elites who implemented radical policies like flat tax, and who think they actually preside over "reform" successes.

Slovakia, which has a left-populist government but one with hollow promises and no clue about truly leftist economics. The first(?) Greek bailout was close to election time, and this birthed an anti-Greece tone (coming both from the then opposition and the then right-wing government) based on the fact that most Slovakians are still poorer than Greeks, so the Northern European false story of "they spend our tax money" got the added flavour "to live better than us but then complain, the swindlers". During and after the last Eurogroup talks, Slovakia's finance minister was even more venomous than Schäuble. As I wrote earlier, here the Syriza government probably missed a chance: they focused on France & Italy, although the Slovakian government could have been reminded that public outrage about healthcare privatisation played a large part in their election victory.

I haven't read up about the position of the current Slovenian government.

However, I think Germany got the strongest support for the strict austerity policy in general not from Central Europe but Finland and the Netherlands. And against Greece, perversely, from the quisling governments of the other PIGS. And, while France and Italy make the most noises for a different approach, you can't underestimate the damage Hollande and Renzi did by joining Merkel & Gabriel's "this referendum is about staying in the Euro" regime change attempt.

All in all, the result is that the now completely nuts German political elite and its completely nuts domestic echo chamber get 100% support from other Eurozone elites minus Greece to maintain their parallel reality.


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European Tribune - And the offer is: Nothing and worse
  1. All European leaders agree that a specific set of structural reforms are necessary to create a strong economy and reduce unemployment. Especially it needs to be easer to fire people.

  2. All European leaders agree that government spending needs to be reduced. On the speed of the reduction there are certainly differences, but in total there is agreeme

I think the situation is a little more nuanced than you suggest. Fine Gael are the lead party in Ireland and also the most right wing. Yet they are anxious to increase Government spending (and reduce income tax) by as much as the Troika and the growth and Stability pact  will allow and have ignored advice from the Commission, OECD and the Irish Statutory Fiscal Advisory Council to tone down the spending.  Partly this is because there is an general election due shortly, but most of the spending increases under consideration are ongoing.  Also there are no proposals to make it easier to fire people that I am aware of, and some talk of making it more difficult to make them redundant when a company goes into liquidation.  Admittedly this is in the context of the economy coming out of austerity and recession, but the ideological commitment to neo-liberalism isn't as total as you suggest.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 05:18:51 PM EST
I wonder where that British term comes from: "making people redundant". Not as zesty and honest as "firing people". Is it soft neolib speak of the (post-)Thatcher era?

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:51:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's been a current phrase for as long as I can remember.

The zestier British alternative might be "to get the sack." (I have no idea what the sack is in a literal sense.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 07:56:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Get the sack - meaning and origin.

The probable derivation of this phrase is an allusion to tradesmen, who owned their own tools and took them with them in a bag or sack when they were dismissed from employment.

It has been known in France since the 17th century, as 'On luy a donné son sac'. The first recorded English version is in Charles Westmacott's The English Spy, 1825:

"You munna split on me, or I shall get the zack for telling on ye."

In his 1869 'Slang Dictionary', John Hotten records these alternatives - 'get the bag' (from the North of England) and 'get the empty' (from London).

It is on the internet, so it must be true.

by fjallstrom on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 05:34:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Ireland there is a technical legal difference.  If you are fired you have legal rights that may be vindicated under the Unfair Dismissals Act and there is no pretense that your old job is gone, it has simply been given to someone else in your company.

Redundancy is where your job disappears either because your firm has gone bust, or because it has changed its business model and the work you formally did s no longer performed by your company.  You are then entitled to Statutory redundancy payments and also, possibly, voluntary redundancy payments agreed by your employer.

An abuse of the system which has become common is where permanent workers are made redundant but their work doesn't actually disappear - it is done by cheaper workers contracted in from another company.  Technically the work is no longer being performed by the original employer and so the redundancy is legally allowed - but it generally leads to industrial disputes unless the redundancy is voluntary and the workers being made redundant have been given better than the minimal statutory redundency terms.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 06:40:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The latest from the ECB, tightening the ELA exchange rate on Greek assets, is a sign that the Troika is planning to force Tsipras to choose between the same old deal, or Grexit.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 06:07:19 PM EST
Also the Eurogroup:

Tsipras secures domestic backing for last-gasp effort at deal | News | ekathimerini.com

According to sources in Brussels, 16 of the other 18 countries in the eurozone are in favor of letting Greece leave the eurozone and they will have to weigh up the cost of any agreement to keep Athens in the single currency.

If this is true (Kathimerini is anti-Syriza), who could be the exceptions: France and?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 03:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cyprus
by Upstate NY on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 10:41:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Italy.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 11:10:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greeks apologise with huge horse
THE nation of Greece said sorry to the European Union with a present of an enormous wooden horse.

Left outside the European Central Bank in the dead of night, the horse has now been moved into the ECB's central lobby where it is proudly on display.

A gift tag attached to the horse, which is surprisingly light for its size and has small holes along the length of its body, suggested that it should be placed in the bank's vaults overnight to avoid it being targeted by thieves.

by das monde on Mon Jul 6th, 2015 at 09:03:57 PM EST
AEP - Europe is blowing itself apart over Greece - and nobody seems able to stop it

He called the snap vote with the expectation - and intention - of losing it. The plan was to put up a good fight, accept honourable defeat, and hand over the keys of the Maximos Mansion, leaving it to others to implement the June 25 "ultimatum" and suffer the opprobrium.

[...]

So Syriza called the referendum. To their consternation, they won, igniting the great Greek revolt of 2015, the moment when the people finally issued a primal scream, daubed their war paint, and formed the hoplite phalanx.

Mr Tsipras is now trapped by his success. "The referendum has its own dynamic. People will revolt if he comes back from Brussels with a shoddy compromise," said Costas Lapavitsas, a Syriza MP.

Anyone care to comment?

by cagatacos on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 05:08:06 PM EST
A bizarre view.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 05:21:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean, it takes either a conspiracy theory or gleeful ignorance of actual details to dismiss the fact that Tsipras personally campaigned quite hard to win the referendum.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 05:27:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not so much bizarre as a delusion of grandeur. I read it as AEP daring Tsipras to resist. It's all about rubbernecking and joy in the smashup, as though Tsipras is thinking about AEP's opinion right now.
by Upstate NY on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 08:12:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the Telecrap regresses to the mean.
by rifek on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 07:27:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Considerably more speculative, less fact-based, than AEP's usual contributions.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Jul 8th, 2015 at 12:59:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He's starting to sound like a communist. Here is the World Socialist Web Site, a few days ago.
Syriza's referendum maneuver, a barely disguised attempt to engineer a vote of no-confidence in its own government, exploded in its face. Tsipras and company were as stunned by the "no" vote as Merkel. Their negotiators headed as fast as they could for Brussels. Varoufakis and Syriza spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis predicted that a deal for a new financial aid package in exchange for further austerity measures could be reached in 24 to 48 hours.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Jul 8th, 2015 at 01:06:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Where Greece Should Go from Here | Ian Welsh

A finance system exists, socially, only to direct money to where it is needed to create more social good. It has no purpose otherwise. It is not an end in itself.  Money that is not a useful commodity (aka. food) is not a store of value, and never was. It is a fiction used to allow feedback in the system and to act as a distribution mechanism for goods and services based on perceived social utility (aka, people who have more money are assumed to have more social utility).

A society which understands NONE of these points will vastly mis-allocate its productive resources, as, currently, ours is. That mis-allocation will, in time, lead to collapse or another disaster (in the much larger picture here, much of the world is now in both a pre-revolutionary state and a pre-war state, though most people won't believe either until they're dying).

I have spent my entire life watching these people burn down the house to generate heat and call themselves geniuses. Neoliberalism "works" because it bribes just enough people to maintain enough of a constituency, while piling money into the hands of a very few people who will do anything to keep it going because that's how they became filthy rich, and virtually any system which cared about the common good would take their money and power away from them.

Word

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 10:30:53 PM EST
I think they have no understanding of the geopolitical risks - indeed, I don't think they even think in geopolitical terms. Just consider how naively the EU people handled the trade negotiations with Ukraine that sparked the revolution and the Russian invasion.

Nor do I think they understand macroeconomics. They just can't fathom that yes, Greece has had massive structural problems for decades, but no, the Greek depression was mostly caused by the austerity programmes. This means that they are probably still misunderstanding the Greek position and the Greek willingness to leave the Eurozone, if the alternative to Grexit is continued or even intensified austerity.

They probably do not understand that Greece might recover reasonably quickly outside the Eurozone, which ironically would be a destabilizing factor in the depressed countries still using the euro after a Grexit.

And even if some of them understand this, backtracking would mean both confessing that the previous policies were mad, and would strengthen their domestic anti-austerity political opponents.

I also suspect that a lot of them don't understand that Grexit would mean a Greek default on her external creditors, which mostly are the other nations of the Eurozone. Some might consider this, but then dismiss it as they do not really care the most about recovering the funds lent to Greece anyway, or perversely consider the funds already lost in all but name due to the unsustainability of the Greek debt pile.

Even fewer probably understand how fragile the Eurozone might become if Greece is forced out, when the Hotel California logic ceases to hold sway over the minds of the market. The ECB might have to do a lot more QE than it has expected, and might relatively soon find itself holding quite a considerable fraction of emitted sovereign bonds of certain southern European countries.

Most of all I think these people do not understand that just extending the maturities of the current Greece bonds would resolve the current acute crisis in its entirety.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Jul 7th, 2015 at 10:56:37 PM EST
I think this is a great post.

Depressing, but correct.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jul 8th, 2015 at 04:57:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The diary, or Starvid's comment?

Both great, imo.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Jul 8th, 2015 at 05:05:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a good diary, but I was referring to Starvid's comment.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jul 8th, 2015 at 05:08:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What I didn't understand when I wrote that comment was that the Greeks were just bluffing. Oh well.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sun Jul 12th, 2015 at 02:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My suspicion all along back when everybody here talked of Syrizas 11-dimensional chess.
by IM on Sun Jul 12th, 2015 at 04:21:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was a very reasonable mistake to make. They played their hand, to all visible measures, perfectly. Right up until they folded for no apparent reason.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jul 13th, 2015 at 09:25:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
" They played their hand, to all visible measures, perfectly. "

Your interpretation. Didn't look in any way perfect to me. rather confused.

So your reasonable mistake looked like a sky castle to me.

by IM on Mon Jul 13th, 2015 at 09:42:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Starvid:
I also suspect that a lot of them don't understand that Grexit would mean a Greek default on her external creditors, which mostly are the other nations of the Eurozone. Some might consider this, but then dismiss it as they do not really care the most about recovering the funds lent to Greece anyway, or perversely consider the funds already lost in all but name due to the unsustainability of the Greek debt pile.

There are huge loss of face issues. The deathcar has overpowered the drivers, and now to admit would reveal not only how the very architecture of the Euro is flawed, but also that their venomous characterisation of the Greeks was a cover for their own cupidity. It has become institutionalised cruelty no less.

Yanis for ECB president...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2015 at 11:54:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany refuses to let Greece off hook>
In a blow to Greek hopes, the European Commission dismissed the No vote as nothing more than a "signal" because the poll was "neither legally nor factually correct".

Mr Dombrovskis, the Latvian official responsible for the single currency, said any prospect of writing down Greece's €380 billion debt mountain - a key Syriza demand - was now "off the table". The vote "dramatically weakens the negotiating stance of the Greek government", he said.

by das monde on Wed Jul 8th, 2015 at 02:58:47 AM EST
Greece remembers, Europe forgets...

Athens 1944: Britain's dirty secret | World news | The Guardian

Even now, at 86, when Patríkios "laughs at and with myself that I have reached such an age", the poet can remember, scene-for-scene, shot for shot, what happened in the central square of Greek political life on the morning of 3 December 1944.

This was the day, those 70 years ago this week, when the British army, still at war with Germany, opened fire upon - and gave locals who had collaborated with the Nazis the guns to fire upon - a civilian crowd demonstrating in support of the partisans with whom Britain had been allied for three years.

The crowd carried Greek, American, British and Soviet flags, and chanted: "Viva Churchill, Viva Roosevelt, Viva Stalin'" in endorsement of the wartime alliance.

Twenty-eight civilians, mostly young boys and girls, were killed and hundreds injured. "We had all thought it would be a demonstration like any other," Patríkios recalls. "Business as usual. Nobody expected a bloodbath."



'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Jul 8th, 2015 at 05:06:45 AM EST
This is going around Greek social media: Αμερικανός Υποικ, Λιου: κανένας Έλληνας Πρωθυπουργός δεν θα έπαιρνε σκληρά μέτρα προσαρμογής χωρίς καμία προοπτική για διευθέτηση χρέους... Translation: US Treasury Secretary Lew: No Greek PM would adopt hard measures [or adjustments] without assurances of debt relief.
by Upstate NY on Wed Jul 8th, 2015 at 10:54:55 AM EST
The real sins of Varoufakis - Le Monde diplomatique - English edition

The negotiations didn't break down because of an unbridgeable gap between the North and South; creditors and debtors; the German `Ordoliberalism' of Schäuble and Djisselbloem and Greek-style Marxism of Varoufakis and Tsipras. This gap has never existed. They broke down because Varoufakis repeatedly breached the Eurogroup's etiquette. In doing so, he challenged the very foundations of the eurozone's mode of governance.

The Eurogroup is not a democratic institution. Though it is made up of finance ministers from democratically elected governments, these ministers meet as individuals who are there on the assumption that they will build consensus, make compromises, and reach agreements amongst themselves.

The etiquette of the Eurogroup is that one leaves one's national interests at the door. Relations are more personal than political. Ideologies and grand statements of political doctrine have no place in the body's deliberations. If a minister is constrained because of a difficult situation at home, this is treated as an understandable -- if unfortunate -- problem that needs to be solved. Ministers find in the Eurogroup a source of energy and support for taking on their own domestic populations. It is also a private club of sorts, where what goes on inside remains secret. Ministers attending the Eurogroup are transformed from politicians representing interests into experts seeking solutions to common problems.

The hostility towards Varoufakis stems from his breaking of all of these rules. He refused to play the Eurogroup game. It's not really about riding a motorbike, wearing combat trousers and being a celebrity academic-blogger -- though his charisma and popularity probably created jealousies amongst the other (colourless and tie-wearing) politicians.

At the heart of the matter is how Varoufakis presented his demands. Thinking of himself as a representative of the Greek people, he made his wishes public, and when in the Eurogroup, he maintained the same stance -- changes in views could not be informally agreed around a table but had to be taken back to Athens and argued for, in cabinet and with the Syriza party.



'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2015 at 11:55:32 AM EST
Ministers attending the Eurogroup are transformed from politicians representing interests into experts seeking solutions to common problems.
Varoufakis just disagreed that the Eurogroup was solving the right problem.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2015 at 12:09:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's becoming increasingly clear the functioning of the Eurogroup is the problem. And Dijsselbloem has launched proposals to broaden and deepen its powers, proposals which run deeply against the consensus of his own party (which underlines that the leadership of PvdA is increasingly abandoning its official party lines).
by Bjinse on Sat Jul 25th, 2015 at 07:55:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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