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The 2016 Iowa Caucus

by ARGeezer Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 01:05:00 AM EST

Iowa Caucus:   Cruz Victory Deals Setback to Donald Trump
                       Clinton and Sanders Locked in Tight Race

NYT  98% reporting  Last updated 11:59 PM ET

Republicans . . . . . . . . . . . Democrats . . . . . . .                                                                    
Ted Cruz             27.7%     Hillary Clinton  49.9%
Donald J. Trump  24.3        Bernie Sanders   49.6
Marco Rubio        23.1        Martin O'Malley   0.6


The Iowa Democratic Party reports State Delegate Equivalents - SDEs, an estimate of who will attend the state wide party convention. Those numbers are:

 Hillary Clinton      678    
 Bernie Sanders     674
 Martin O'Malley       8

It appears that Martin O'Mally will get no delegates and that his delegates at the state convention will have the choice of voting for someone else or leaving.

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This has to dent Clinton's claim of inevitability. We will have to see if her campaign even continues to push that line. She once had a commanding lead in Iowa and had vowed not to let Iowa set back her campaign again. To that end she devoted a lot of funds, aids and prestige - to come in virtually tied with Sanders, whose chances the Mainstream Media pundits have been vigorously denigrating. In a week Sanders could well beat her in New Hampshire by double digits. Interesting times.

And, finally, we get to see Donald's claimed 'winner' status take a hit at the waterline. It remains to be seen to what extent he and his braggadocio continue to dominate coverage. The longer he is in it the better it will be for the Democrats. Meanwhile the Republican Establishment has Cruz to contend with. I have to smile.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 01:17:20 AM EST
Does the winner get all the delegates or is it proportional?

Bernie had a good lead, even if within MOE, last week. What happened?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 02:35:02 AM EST
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( Link to my 2008 diary "Iowa Caucus -- More Than You Want to Know" for anyone who wants to know the gritty details.) --AtinMN
by generic on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 06:16:52 AM EST
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Sometimes, Iowa Democrats award caucus delegates with a coin flip
In a handful of Democratic caucus precincts Monday, a delegate was awarded with a coin toss.

It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings [...]

A Clinton supporter correctly called "heads" on a quarter flipped in the air, and Clinton received a fifth delegate.

Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines, at another precinct in Des Moines, in Newton, in West Branch  and in Davenport. In all five situations, Clinton won the toss.

by das monde on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 08:04:05 AM EST
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Did Clinton get to see which side was facing up before it was tossed? It should end with that side facing up with probability about .51...
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 09:29:22 AM EST
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O'Malley needed to have 15% of the total for his votes to turn into SDEs. He got far less, so his delegates can go to the state caucus but must caucus with either Sanders or Clinton camps or abstain. I don't know that O'Malley even made his preferences known, so it will be up to his delegates.

I am not aware of any poll independent of a candidate that put Sanders significantly ahead in Iowa, but it was becoming clear that he had a chance to win. Turnout was always a question but that seems to have afflicted Trump the worst.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 10:15:52 AM EST
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Reading ATinNM's '08 diary I see that I left out the County Caucuses, the next step.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 10:20:49 AM EST
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UHH - generic's diary! Sorry for that brain malfunction.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 10:22:04 AM EST
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OH DAMN! It is generic's post of ATinNM's diary.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 10:24:15 AM EST
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The future.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 10:38:13 AM EST
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The future ... would seem to lie with Socialists. :-)

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 10:54:02 AM EST
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  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SboRijhWFDU

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 03:01:31 PM EST
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Looks like Spain's PSOE vs. Podemos or PP vs. Ciudadanos charts...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 10:57:07 AM EST
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Donald Trump Campaign Sued Gender Discrimination
A former paid organizer for the Donald Trump campaign has filed a lawsuit claiming that she and other women faced discrimination.

The lawsuit was filed by 26-year-old Elizabeth Mae Davidson, who worked for the campaign in Davenport, IA, according to The New York Times. Davidson was fired last month.

In the complaint, Davidson alleges that men and women were paid unequally despite holding the same job titles and responsibilities. She claims that she was paid $2,000 a month and classified as part-time because of her other job as a paralegal. According to The Times' analysis of public filings, several men with the same title of "district representative" made $3,500 to $4,000 a month.

Raise your hand if you're surprised.
by Bernard on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 02:27:46 PM EST
According to HuPo final Democratic Caucus results from Iowa are:

Candidate     SDEs     Delegates
Clinton        701            28            ̴ 3;
Sanders     697           21 ​
R 03;
O'Malley         8              0

As we do not know the ultimate decisions of O'Malley's SDEs, we do not know who 'won' for the Democrats. For now, Iowa is a draw for the Democrats. Even last night it was reported that, in a few precincts, the deadlocked caucus goers decided to allot by coin toss, all of which went in Clinton's favor. The closeness of the race could outweigh the fact that Clinton, at this time, has seven more delegates than Sanders.

The 2016 Nevada Democratic caucus will be held on Saturday, February 20th, 2016 and the South Carolina primary is on Feb. 27, a Saturday, this year. Las Vegas is a union town and may support Sanders while Clinton should have the advantage in South Carolina. Today is February 2, Ground Hog Day, and the sun shines brightly in Arkansas after an overnight rain. Yet I doubt we will have another six weeks of winter, and though our last freeze is often during the third week in April, El Nino may yet rescue me from six more weeks of winter. (Bold on Sanders and the end of line artifacts courtesy of Scoop and my frustration with it.)

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 02:54:49 PM EST
Bernie Sanders' Ancestral Hometown in Poland Cheers Presidential Run
Residents of the Polish town where Bernie Sanders' father was born are watching the Jewish candidate's presidential run with pride.

Many citizens of Slopnice, in southern Poland, viewed the results of the Democratic caucus in Iowa with interest on Tuesday, according to Agence France Press, the day after Sanders narrowly lost to Hillary Clinton.

"There's quite a bit of excitement in the air here -- we're proud of Senator Sanders and we wish our `homeboy' even greater success!" Mayor Adam Soltys told AFP.

Soltys met Sanders, 74, and his brother in 2013 when the two visited the town of 6,500 while retracing the footsteps of their father, Eli. The mayor helped the brothers find the house where Eli Sanders lived before emigrating in 1921 at age 17.

Many of Eli Sanders' relatives were killed in the Holocaust.

Bernie Sanders "even speaks a few words of Polish," Soltys said, describing the candidate as "very sympathetic, warmhearted and friendly."


by das monde on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 09:13:32 PM EST
The Democrats Effectively Tied in Iowa, But Sanders Won the Future  New York Magazine

In 2008, voters under 30 propelled Barack Obama to victory, choosing the Illinois senator over Hillary Clinton by a 43-point margin. In 2016, those younger voters single-handedly lifted America's favorite democratic socialist to a virtual tie: Sanders outperformed Clinton among voters 18 to 29 by 70 points, according to CNN's entrance poll.

Unfortunately, 'the future' might start AFTER 2016. Quoting Slate's  Jamelle Bouie:

Sanders is already a historic candidate--the first socialist in a century to build a genuine mass movement in American party politics. And whatever the Democratic Party is in the next 20 or 30 years, it will owe a great deal to Sanders and all the people--young or otherwise--who felt the Bern.

 


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 2nd, 2016 at 11:50:39 PM EST
do the elevated numbers of republican voters suggest that there might be problems with democratic turnout in November?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Feb 3rd, 2016 at 02:58:02 AM EST
Probably depends on the candidates. Trump or Cruz might turn out to be bi-partisan motivators but either Clinton or Sanders might have trouble turning out the others' voters. OTOH, Sanders is neither black nor a Clinton, so that might help him even though he is still a Socialist - especially with the over 50 voters.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Feb 3rd, 2016 at 10:00:37 AM EST
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Here is some food for thought on Hillary:

The Women Who Should Love Hillary Clinton  Gail Sheehy  NYT

Unfortunately anecdotes still do not equal data, but...

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Feb 3rd, 2016 at 10:34:25 AM EST
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Donald Trump accuses Ted Cruz of stealing Iowa -- and demands new caucuses - The Washington Post

The unexpected sense of generosity that marked Donald Trump's concession speech in Iowa on Monday night began to fray during his speech in New Hampshire on Tuesday -- and appears to have evaporated completely, given what Trump tweeted Wednesday morning. By the end of his tirade against Ted Cruz's Iowa win, Trump suggested that new voting should be held.

Trump's initial tweet read:

Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he illegally stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong any why he got more votes than anticipated. Bad!
by Bernard on Wed Feb 3rd, 2016 at 03:21:37 PM EST
there do seem to be suggestions that Cruz deliberately misled people about Carson dropping out, boosting his own support sufficiently to win at the expense of Carson.

But, frankly, it's all part of the clown car experience on the republican primary this cycle.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Feb 4th, 2016 at 11:08:30 AM EST
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Truth be told, this is an old part of US politics and, since WW II at least, has been employed the most by Republicans. California political operative Dick Tuck was infamous for his dirty tricks and there are substantial reasons why Nixon was called 'Tricky Dick'. And that is without even getting into the treasonous acts committed for the ultimate political gain of obtaining the presidency.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 7th, 2016 at 11:23:58 PM EST
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they say IOKIUAR for a reason too

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Feb 8th, 2016 at 03:13:27 AM EST
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It seems to be true - mostly. Whereas nothing is OK for Democrats. Very confusing. What could possibly be causing that?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Feb 8th, 2016 at 10:46:17 AM EST
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Why, the well-known liberal media bias... <snigger>
by Bernard on Mon Feb 8th, 2016 at 03:58:55 PM EST
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Could Jeb-mentum be real?: The GOP's "low-energy" candidate veers left -- and New Hampshire loves it
It was a distinctly different demographic from the audiences that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz get here, conspicuously middle-class to affluent and with a general mood closer to bafflement than anger. They came to see a guy who has been repeatedly mocked and belittled by the Republican frontrunner and the media since the beginning of this electoral season, the scion of a political dynasty who has spent tens of millions of dollars with no discernible results and who barely registered in the Iowa caucuses. They came to see the son and brother of former presidents argue for a return to what he calls "regular-order democracy," and they ate it up [...]

After repeatedly being confounded by the more-conservative-than-thou politics of the Republican race, Bush has made the counterintuitive decision (at least for now) to run to the left of his entire party, with the possible exception of Kasich. That's a highly relative term in 2016, to be sure. But in terms of the policy positions I heard him talk about on Sunday morning, the differences between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton on a broad range of issues are more a matter of tone than substance. He said he was done badmouthing Barack Obama, and that Republicans could never win unless they convince voters they care about the poor and the disadvantaged. "I don't think liberals are bad people," he said, a sentiment you will not hear from Donald Trump or Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.

More extraordinary still, Bush agreed with a questioner that climate change was a genuine threat to human society and said that "man has to have some influence" in that process. (That got a heartfelt round of applause.)

by das monde on Mon Feb 8th, 2016 at 10:32:23 PM EST
Bi-partisan political panic in -- three -- two --- one second!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 9th, 2016 at 12:12:08 AM EST
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Republicans could never win unless they convince voters they care about the poor and the disadvantaged.

How come? It's not stopped them in the past.

And I'm really not sure that's a message that's credible from the man with more Wall St money than Hillary

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Feb 9th, 2016 at 03:13:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The alternatives are such that this primary season is a great laboratory for decision rationalization and perception manipulation.
by das monde on Tue Feb 9th, 2016 at 08:20:36 PM EST
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Well, his brother did run as a 'compassionate conservative', however far fetched that may seem now, and the mood of the public makes it an even harsher environment for reasonably sane Republicans than it was in 2000. And, in all practicality, what CAN Jeb say. He doesn't have it in him to even try to out Trump Trump. He would need a total personality replacement.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 9th, 2016 at 11:34:24 PM EST
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The millennials are now aware of their dim prospects and their share of the vote is increasing as is their activism.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Feb 20th, 2016 at 08:16:42 PM EST
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No.

Article is a good example of why the pontification of political pontificators should be ignored or taken with a hogshead of salt.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Feb 19th, 2016 at 03:11:17 PM EST
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