Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

This is what BREXIT IS BREXIT means

by Frank Schnittger Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 01:09:08 PM EST

The Brexit deal has been agreed by the European Council in the time it would take to eat a good breakfast brunch in a Brussels brasserie. No point in wasting a whole day on this sort of thing. It's happening for the optics only, to send one clear message to all concerned: THIS IS BREXIT, this is the deal, we are not going to revisit it. Take it or leave it.

The House of Commons can huff and puss all it wants, vote for it, against it, amend it to its hearts content: But this is the deal. Mutti Merkel has said so. She wouldn't have wasted her time coming to Brussels if anyone was going to reopen the debate.

Boris Johnson is absolutely right: This Brexit deal is a historic mistake, and he should know. He has been the prime mistake maker: leading the UK up the garden path of delusional dreams. Nothing encapsulates that delusion more than the gap between what this deal delivers for the UK and what the Brexiteers said they would be able to negotiate in "the easiest deal in history".


The Gibraltar dispute was useful, from an EU perspective, in demonstrating that it is not just the UK that is unhappy with aspects of the Brexit deal. There has been an attitude in the UK that the EU will cave if the UK shouts loud enough, and demands certain changes.

Not only is this unlikely, from an EU perspective, because it is by no means certain that there are any changes, acceptable to the EU, which would bring a majority in the House of Commons on board, but re-opening the negotiations could open a Pandora's Box of demands from other members among the EU27.

Sánchez has gotten his hour in the sun (or rather his people got to pull an all-nighter) and was made look strong in relation to Gibraltar ahead of the Andalusian elections. Merkel could perform her favourite "adult in the room" routine, and the UK is reminded that any renegotiation, even if it were to occur, would not be a one way street.

The centrality of the Irish border to the negotiating process and the shape of the final deal is also a reminder of how much stronger your negotiating position is if you have the backing of a powerful and united trading block. Varadker has performed the difficult task, for him, of saying as little as possible, without quite being able to wipe the smug smile of satisfaction from his face.

Good luck with trying to negotiate your own trade deals in the future if you turn down this deal is the message. Michel Barnier advised MPs to vote for the deal on the table, suggesting that a "no" vote could damage negotiations on the future relationship. "Now it is time for everybody to take their responsibilities, everybody," he said. The deal was "a necessary step to build the trust between the UK and the EU" to build "an unprecedented and ambitious future partnership." The EU is now even using the UK's florid and meaningless piffle against it.

From day one, this negotiation has been almost a one way process: Brussels set down the timetable for the negotiations, stipulating they had to be complete this autumn. A.50 is actually very sparse to the point of being silent on the substance of the agreement itself, saying only that it should set out "the arrangements for [a members] withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union".

It was Brussels which insisted that the agreement should deal with 4 basic issues:

  1. An Exit Payment to settle outstanding liabilities
  2. Provide for the continuing rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU
  3. Avoid a hard customs Irish Border, and (later)
  4. provide for a Transition Period

It was Brussels which decided that the future relationship could be dealt with only when the above four issues had been settled, and that it should only be covered by a a vague aspirational and non-legally binding short document. It did so to prevent the UK from using the disruption caused by a hard Brexit as bargaining leverage in the new negotiations. In particular, the Peace Process in Northern Ireland was not going to be allowed to become a bargaining lever or collateral damage.

The negotiations on a future relationship will take place from a starting point of the UK being a third party outside the Union, seeking to preserve and retain a close trading relationship with the largest trading block in the world. Ask Canada how that feels. Ask Yanis Varoufakis for that matter. He too had the backing of a popular national referendum for his negotiating position. Little good it did him...

When the history of these negotiations is written, I would not be surprised to find that the vast bulk of the 585 page Brexit deal was written by EU officials, with the UK side getting to argue over a word here and there. And it was not necessarily because the UK negotiators were being totally incompetent: they simply had no clear political guidance on what their negotiating priorities should be, and what trade-offs they could offer in return for their priorities.

The EU negotiators had the luxury of clear political guidance and a clear legal framework to work from. Juncker and Barnier took great care to keep all 27 remaining member governments on board. For many, Brexit was not a life and death issue and they were happy to let the Commission, Germany, France, the Benelux countries and Ireland take the lead. Nevertheless their achievement in maintaining a united front among the EU27 with only token dissent is remarkable.

Contrast that with the UK, where Conservative law makers and the DUP seemed to delight in undermining Theresa May's negotiating position at every opportunity, humiliating her into embarrassing U-turns and rubbishing proposals before they had even been presented as opening negotiating offers in Brussels. Brussels negotiators merely had to sit and wait while their adversaries did the hard work of shredding their own proposals. As Napoleon is reputed to have said: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake".

A 26 page non legally binding "Political Declaration" dealing with the proposed future relationship between the EU and UK has also been hastily cobbled together to provide Theresa May with as much political cover as possible. It uses the word "consider" 19 times and kicks all the more difficult issues into the long grass of future negotiations. If the House of Commons has difficulties with the 585 page legally binding Brexit deal, the EU will be more than happy to accommodate those concerns by putting more emollient phrases into this text.

The EU strategy appears to be to draw a line under the legally binding text and redirect UK anger onto the political declaration. If the House of Commons passes various amendments to the Brexit deal the EU will seek to accommodate them, as best as possible, in the political declaration. But from now on, passing the Brexit deal through the UK constitutional process is essentially an internal UK matter. The EU can only negotiate with governments, and it has fulfilled its obligation, under A.50, to do just that.

The DUP, meanwhile, is going almost beserk, angry that their natural allies in the business and agricultural communities in N. Ireland have abandoned them. There has long been a convention in N. Ireland politics for business and trade never to get involved in N. Ireland politics. Not only is it extremely divisive and damaging to business, but it used to be a matter of life and death. Seamus Heaney summed it up in his poem: "Whatever you say, say nothing". So for them to speak out publicly, in tandom with just about every other Northern political party is "a wonder to behold".

It remains to be seen whether time and circumstance do their thing and House of Commons attitudes to this deal change when they consider the alternatives. Seasoned observers expect many more twists and turns in this tale before the matter is settled. Jacob Rees-Moggs' dramatic and outraged but failed challenge to Theresa May's leadership - when it turned out he couldn't even muster 48 MP's to sign letters to that effect (from among his own 80 strong European Research Group caucus) may be a straw in the wind. Certainly Theresa May's resilience in the face of adversity is drawing some respect even from her adversaries.

If there isn't a majority in the House of Commons for this deal, or for no deal, and no other deal is in prospect, where do you go?

Display:
Robert Peston said yesterday that for the first time in two years he was sensing a general mood in Westminster to just give up and abaondon Brexit.

It chimes with some commentators I've seen who, admitting it was only really obvious in hindsight, say  
that there have only ever been two types of brexit on offer;-

One that is politically satisfying to leavers but economically disastrous, while the other, being dis-satisfying but economically bearable rendered brexit pointless.

Positions like Canada++ or Norway+ only made sense if your polito-economic trajectory was towards the EU. Going in the other direction, if you continued to pay dues and take rules you were just being silly.

So, despite all the BS about how great a deal we were going to negotiate, that was never an option because any deal we could get would be senseless to one or other group. So it was always no deal or no brexit, with no deal being the nuclear option for idiots only.

But, like I said, that is only obvious in hindsight.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 04:01:26 PM EST
I do not understand the proposed timeline for the "no BREXIT" scenario. March is not very far away.
by asdf on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 05:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 Probably a letter saying something like;-

 "HA !!! APRIL FOOL !!!!. We're not going anywhere"

gotcha

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 06:28:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Problem is the A.50 letter was delivered on March 29th. 2017, 3 days early. Perhaps the Brussels post was too efficient...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 06:33:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it was always no deal or no brexit, with no deal being the nuclear option for idiots only.

But, like I said, that is only obvious in hindsight.

In fairness I think I and most other people here have been saying for two years that no-deal was the most likely outcome, such was the gulf in expectations between the Brexiteers and mainstream opinion in the EU.

EU leaders themselves have also been very clear from the outset: the EU cannot offer the UK better terms than its own members enjoy - else why would anyone remain? The Brexit negotiations were always going to be about damage limitation, at best.

What has perhaps become even more clear in hindsight, is that EU leaders had an incentive to offer the UK the worst deal possible, if they still harboured hopes that the UK might change its mind.

And  that is where we are today: The EU leaders aren't celebrating this as a victory, but marking it as a sad and tragic day. No one will say so openly, but most would still be relieved if the UK changed its mind. If not, it will act as a salutary lesson to all other nationalist secessionist elements within the EU.

But the UK now has a clear and concrete choice - No Deal or this Deal - unlike the terms under which the referendum was held. The only way I can see the EU facilitating an extension of A.50 or its cancellation is if there is a referendum or general election in the meantime. And that too is a decision entirely for the UK to make.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 06:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's strong - and increasing - parliamentary opposition to No Deal. And also to this deal. Because it's ridiculous.

So for the first time there has been serious talk about stopping Brexit.

If I had to lay odds, I'd say it's around 60:40 for No Brexit at the moment. It will take a while for the process to get there, but No Deal is only an option for a handful of Tory headbangers, and not for most MPs. Nor for most voters.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 08:42:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is by what mechanism can this be achieved. Under the fixed term act, it's almost impossible to topple May even if she is a lame duck and can't pass critical legislation. If there is a leadership election, Tory rank and file will probably elect a hard Brexiteer.

Tory MPs will hardly agree to a GE - so that leaves a second referendum. Corbyn may be the obstacle here. Is there a majority in the Commons prepared to defy BOTH May and Corbyn? Could you organise a referendum by private members bill or does it have to be government sponsored legislation?

There is so much scope for playing games and brinkmanship and time is running out.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 09:16:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure of the mechanism but apparently if this deal doesn't pass, there's cross party support for a new referendum.

To which I would counsel, be careful what you wsh for

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 10:53:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There has been massive swing towards a second referendum in opinion polls since Raab et al resigned - now 14-20% margin in favour. The remain/leave margin is currently 6-8% in favour of remain. The right/wrong margin is 6/7% in favour of wrong. Not exactly decisive, although the trend seems to be towards remain. Of course everything depends on turnout.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 11:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understand the legislation correctly, if a vote of no confidence is passed, and no new vote of confidence is passed within two weeks, you have got yourself an election. And the Tories has a minority. So either if enough Tories abstains or if DUP freaks out and votes down the May government.
by fjallstrom on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 10:58:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but up until now the DUP has been careful to say they won't vote no confidence, even though they will vote no to everything else. They know they will lose all influence if the Tories are defeated.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 11:07:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Labour had a lick of sense, it would vote to keep May in.  The Tories have to be made to reap the whirlwind.
by rifek on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 04:43:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Depend upon it, Sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully."


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 10:04:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that is only obvious in hindsight.

One has the impression of an entire nation with its fingers in its ears yelling "LALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU".

I certainly won't say I told you so. But Varoufakis certainly did.

"Relax said the night man, we are programmed to receive... You can check out any time you like, "

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 08:59:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except for the fact that it would cause chaos in Britain, it seems to me that the best thing for the EU in the long term would be a no deal BREXIT. That would be the "the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard" (H. L. Mencken) approach.

The resulting British economic and social disaster, and subsequent on-her-knees begging to be let back in even without the Thatcherite rebate exception would probably scare away any discussion of EU separatism for quite a while.

Too bad about the English people, but hey, the Article 50 vote was their clear and final decision, right?

by asdf on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 05:11:47 PM EST
Witnessing the UK turning into a failed state is is not the interest of the EU countries: we're all on the same continent, even those of us living on islands.

A no-deal Brexit would be disastrous for many EU countries, starting with Ireland, but not only. Even with the negotiated deal, the EU27 will be weaker overall.

As Tusk and Juncker (and frankly, anyone with an IQ above room temperature) recognized from the start of A50 notification, is that Brexit would be a lose-lose event, and the negotiated deal is mainly damage control.

by Bernard on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 05:29:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Leaving EU would make UK the North Korea of Europe, warns Gordon Brown

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 07:14:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A shame then, that when he had the opportunity to reverse the inequalities in income and education that were developing in post-thatcher Britain, he made them worse rather than combated them.


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 08:08:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But as a good little fascist, er, Tory, he couldn't reverse the course of The Blessed St. Maggotty Blather.
by rifek on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 04:39:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK already is a failed state. It just hasn't noticed yet.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 08:43:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US and UK have at least this in common.
by rifek on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 04:35:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, the US will be fine under President Pelosi.
by asdf on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 08:10:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ha Ha Ha
by Zwackus on Wed Nov 28th, 2018 at 12:09:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From an "Ever Closer Union" EU perspective getting rid of the UK is a good thing.  It is absolutely clear the UK will never accept the political goals of the EU.

And, yes, the EU leaders are yakking nicey-nice about wanting the UK to remain.  It's something they sorta/kinda have to do.  I am extremely skeptical they mean it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 05:32:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well it is egg on the EU's face that their brilliant concept baby has just self-amputated a limb, and a major one at that.
Italy is now openly snubbing its nose at Brussels, effectively saying 'Bite me!' to the Big Boyz, (tut-tutting away in their veiled threats, now threatening a fine for infringing the Maastricht deficit parameters.)
As Jake used to say about Greece back in the day 'What are they going to do, send gunships?'
Odious debt is gutting the purpose of Europe.
The relentless algorithms of speculators will gather over Italy and predator logic will pull in the Troika any day now. Italians are being bombarded daily with propaganda messaging how their savings are shrinking and the spread will make all their mortgages cost more, death, doom and despair will crush the 0% growth Italian economy, Kool-aide flowing like the now-regular floods that wash away houses, roads and railway lines.
The UK has been instrumentalising the EU and holding it back, now it's being trolled in return, but not by the EU (whose negotiations have been -seemingly at least- honorable in a mechanical sort of way).
It's being trolled by its own gutter press (since forever) and its Tory party, disintegrating in plain view into a Bullyingden squabble between toffee-nosed twits arguing over political turf as they blithely risk pissing away their country's future for a mess of pottage with the City's name on it. So the Tories trolling themselves then which is what started the damn referendum in the first place.
Meanwhile back at the ranch what's the EU done recently to add lustre to the project?

Given Monsanto a pass to keep selling Glysophate under a new Bayer label?
Made new noises about a Euro-army (running off Google translate?).

I felt a pang watching the telly tonight... never have so few idiots concocted such a clusterfuck that affects so many, to paraphrase Churchill.

In which form could sanity return?

It is interesting that the EU is beating up on Italy while making so maudlin with the UK. Tusk was almost tearing up offering the eternal 'forever and a day' hand of friendship.

But then they kept out of the Eurozone and so never become Frankfurt's bitch like Italy did.
Thanks Prodi!

It's got to be another referendum or a general election. May's deal is a dog's dinner and everyone knows it would be, due diligence was zero and lo and behold here we are.


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 11:35:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The euro is what is tearing the eurozone apart; it's what went wrong for Greece, it's what's going wrong for Italy. It's not the EU attacking Italy over its debt, it's the ECB. The euro needs to be fixed or it will tear the EU apart.

Brexit is about 52% of the British being selfish, ignorant arseholes

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 09:16:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit is about 52% of the British being selfish, ignorant arseholes

... which is actually MUCH easier to fix than the euro. It's already down to 46% or so.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 10:26:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
124 days to go.

If May has the votes to accept the deal it's not apparent to me.    

The Tory Leavers have been shown to be egregiously stupid or a paper tiger, i.e., Rees-Moog.  Yet they still refuse to deal with reality.

The voice of duh peepul is the standard cognitive fog of bewilderment when asked a question more complex than "do you want chips with that?"

Where does this go?  The default option: No Deal.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 05:26:52 PM EST
Re-write:"The Tory Leavers have been shown to be an egregiously stupid paper tiger, i.e., Rees-Moog.  Yet they still refuse to deal with reality.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 01:33:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  • UK gov has neither ratified nor signed any withdrawal agreement. The EU does not and has never controlled UK gov politics. Illiteracy controls UK gov politics.
  • EU negotiators have written every draft withdrawal agreement, annotated with color-coded UK provisional acceptance or rejection. See 19 March Draft basis of 22 Nov draft, including but not limited to NI customs surveillance.
  • "POLITICAL DECLARATION SETTING OUT THE FRAMEWORK FOR THE FUTURE RELATIONSHIP ..." is a minority report by the UK, another document in the stream of "position" papers issued since 2016, acknowledging provisions on which the UK cannot agreed. See 145. Immediately following the United Kingdom's withdrawal, and based on their preparatory work, the Parties will agree a programme including: ..." more "progress" assessments. Conditional UK trade privileges have always been elements of withdrawal and "transition" terms.
  • UK Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories: Two months ago Gibraltar and, more recently, Channel Islands delegations divested unionist sentiment ("same deal") in order to proceed to bi-lateral negotiation with EU-member "sponsors". Sanchez' equivocation was ceremonial, played in part to Cataluyna conflict against ES-GIB secured MOUs. The EU has conceded UK sovereignty of its military installations in Cyprus to little fanfare.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 05:38:12 PM EST
"Brexit means Brexit" means "Brexit means Brexit".

Next question?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 10:24:09 AM EST
I haven't really followed recent developments at all. Is it fair to say that Barnier produced this exit agreement with very little substantive input from the UK side?
by generic on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 02:12:45 PM EST
The problem is, he's been negotiating with the Spice Girls



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 02:54:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody from Brussels has said this out loud, but the logic goes that the EU team were well staffed and given firm political direction about what could or could not be done. Meanwhile the british civil servants were short-staffed and given no useful direction whatsoever. So most of the time they were simply nodding their heads to EU ideas.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 27th, 2018 at 05:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reports all over the place May has scheduled the vote for December 11.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 06:14:01 PM EST
Belfast Telegraph front page headlines are insane.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 08:21:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 27th, 2018 at 04:50:31 PM EST
BBC reporting

Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and the Democratic Unionists have said they will reject the terms of the UK's withdrawal and future relations negotiated by Mrs May.

So even if May gets the entire Tory Party - and she won't - she doesn't have the votes.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 27th, 2018 at 05:48:48 PM EST
Yes, this deal will not pass. Corbyn more or less admitted on TV that there's an agreement that "no deal" will not happen. Which only leave "no brexit".

But politically, that will require a new referendum. The politicians dare not do this themselves, So we're gonna have a "please get us out of this mess" vote.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Nov 29th, 2018 at 08:57:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by generic on Thu Nov 29th, 2018 at 09:21:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An evil charm at that.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 29th, 2018 at 10:13:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A sure winner.

by Bjinse on Fri Nov 30th, 2018 at 08:02:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"So we're gonna have a "please get us out of this mess" vote."
We can hope. But what if May's efforts undermine all attempts at sanity? (see post about the effects of her 'charm' offensive.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 29th, 2018 at 10:18:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit deal latest news: 100 Tory MPs say they will oppose Theresa May's deal, as she agrees to televised Brexit debate

Rest of it is behind a paywall.  Unnecessary as the headline says it all.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 30th, 2018 at 05:22:38 AM EST
There's 120 days until March 29, 2019 and ...

Second Brexit referendum could be held in 22 weeks -- Greening

Let's see:  22 x 7 = 154

So it will be possible, according to pro-European Conservative MP Justine Greening, to have a Brexit referendum 34 days after the UK has left the EU.

Does anyone in the Tory Party have a functioning brain?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 30th, 2018 at 05:29:30 AM EST
Maybe the math works out better in imperial measurements?
by generic on Fri Nov 30th, 2018 at 07:42:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A50 extension. Don't be obtuse, there's enough of that going around.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2018 at 10:22:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is my understanding the transition period is part of the Brexit Agreement that is unlikely to be accepted by parliament.

See:  here.

The agreement outlines a transitional period that will last from March 30, 2019 until 31 December 2020.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Nov 30th, 2018 at 04:49:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go and read Article 50. Extension to two year period by agreement on Council if requested by UK.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2018 at 06:40:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This.

... a transition cannot be delivered by the European Union (Withdrawal) Act, which was passed just over a month ago. That Act operates on the assumption that the UK will leave the EU on exit day. It chooses that day as the `switch-over' point, after which the European Communities Act 1972 (ECA) is repealed and most (but not all) EU law is converted into domestic law (or 'retained EU law').

If exit day is to stay at 29 March 2019, but the UK is to give effect to EU law `proper' (rather than `retained' EU law) beyond that day, fresh legislation is needed. A new Act of Parliament will have to amend the Withdrawal Act before the new scheme of `retained EU law' replaces the ECA.

and

The EU Treaties would cease to apply to the UK two years after the notification of an intention to withdraw [i.e. March 29, 2019] and the ECA is repealed at the same time. There can be no `transition period' without a withdrawal agreement.

Emphasis added

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Dec 1st, 2018 at 07:25:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I presume the distinction between "retained" and "proper" EU law is that "retained" law is whatever the law was at the time of retention, and "proper" EU law is dynamic, it can be changed by the appropriate EU institutions using prescribed processes at any time. For the moment the distinction is academic, but some divergence could occur over time during a transition period or while the UK remains associated with the CUSM if a deal is agreed. The fact that the UK could remain subject to aspects of EU law while having no formal say in its adoption is one of the most controversial aspects of the deal in the UK, even though it is only "common sense" from an EU perspective. (You want to be part of our market, you play by our rules...)

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 2nd, 2018 at 12:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there some legal requirement I am not aware of that prevents the holding of a second referendum before the end of March? I appreciate there are some parliamentary procedures to be gone through, but the campaign itself need not be any longer than your average G.E. campaign, i.e. 3/4 weeks. It's not as if the issues haven't been discussed to death over the past 3 years. It seems to me the UK should avoid asking for an A.50 extension if possible, as a refusal might offend...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Nov 30th, 2018 at 05:01:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU has several times expressed its wish to see the UK remain. A very recent statement from the EU says there are only three ways forward: the May agreement, no deal, or no Brexit.

Why would there be a refusal to accommodate a British move towards a likely Remain outcome?

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2018 at 03:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think there would be, but at the same time an A.50 extension requires unanimous agreement on the Council so it just takes one member with a grudge...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 1st, 2018 at 05:07:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And as I pointed out a few weeks ago, over the past two years, the Tories have managed to offend quite a number of people in many EU27 countries, including countries traditionally sympathetic to the UK positions; it turns out that many people in Europe can read and understand English, actually (I know: shocking).

Would that be enough to push some to block to block A50 extension (cough - Gibraltar - cough)? Probably not, but it's hard to predict.

by Bernard on Sat Dec 1st, 2018 at 05:36:59 PM EST
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