November Open Thread

by Bjinse Tue Nov 6th, 2018 at 11:50:06 PM EST

Days decrease, and autumn grows, threads in everything

November Open Thread | 68 comments (67 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)

Earlier I got all misty eyed about an interview by Isa Blumi giving a lot of context to the events in Yemen. I finally got around to reading the book. I must admit that I'm somewhat disappointed.
What I found most eye-opening in the interview was how the interests of the three gulf monarchies often clash and how they are connected to different faction in the US and the greater world. The book mostly sums up the outside forces, at times the British empire, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the US, high finance, as different tools of "empire" while the focus is on the stuff happening in and with Yemen itself.
One point he brings up is the unceasing hostility to the village in all western modes of development. Development that is strictly local is worse than no development at all. I've been thinking about the Soviets having broadly the same idea. The "idiocy of the countryside" in the original text and the conflicts with the peasantry in the early years all point in this direction.

by generic on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 02:04:07 PM EST

Re: Destroying Yemen (4.00 / 2)

A few details that were in the book about the recent events: The Hadi transition government signed up to the WTO, because clearly you need no discussion about that. It also had a compromise plan to bring peace to Yemen by splitting the country into six mostly autonomous provinces. Four with all the people and two with all the oil.

by generic on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 03:28:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Destrying Yemen (4.00 / 5)

Offhand, I think the early Soviet problems with peasants lay in their resistance to being forced into collective farming (unless anarchist, see Makhno). Later, kolkhozy gave employment and sustained villages and rural life. Certainly post-Soviet developments are an illustration of the abandonment of the countryside and the dereliction of villages.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 04:13:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Destrying Yemen (none / 1)

Thanks for the reminder of that interview. Finally got around to listen to it, it is really good.

In particular I liked when they tried to bring a longer historical perspective on how the British Empire supported top-down interpretations of islam in order to replace local interpretations that took the needs of local society in account with local strong men to make deals with. Islamism as a tool to control muslim populations is an interesting perspective. Also ties in with countryside through central control.

by fjallstrom on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 10:01:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Destrying Yemen (none / 1)

Which reminds me that I have a Mark Curtis book about British Collusion with political Islam lying around somewhere here. While reading the book I did felt that Blumi might be too upbeat about the Imamate, the old government of North Yemen. There was little information about the early days of the the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, but they certainly were open to British advances in their conflict with Nasser. And what brought on this clash was land reform. Which is presumably when Nasser started telling jokes about the MBs silly idea of putting a veil on every woman in Egypt(total 2:30min).

Now, Blumi quotes Imam Ahmad in 61, shortly before the end of Yemeni participation in the UAR project:

Taking property by forbidden means
On pretext of nationalization, or of justice
Between those who have wealth and those with none,
Is a crime against Islamic law.

The land reforms were in 62. You could certainly read the Yemeni decison as stemming from the Egyptian turn toward a new form of colonialism, and they certainly managed to alienate the Syrians pretty quickly, but I have no doubt that the elite running an agricultural country would need no ulterior motives to oppose anyone suggesting land reform.

by generic on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 06:47:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Long term effects of Taiping (none / 1)

Interesting article in Naked Capitalism showing that the effects of the rebellion remain even today

We find that the rebellion permanently shifted the rebellion areas' development trajectories.In areas that experienced the rebellion, the post-warpopulation increases (compared to the baseline year 1820) remain 38% to 67% lower than in areas that were unaffected by the war, even after the passage of one-and-a-half centuries(see Figure 2). The long-term impact on the population by the rebellion is illustrated in Figure 3, which depicts the evolution over time of the total population and the share of the rebellion areas in the total population of the sample prefectures. The rebellion prefectures' population share has dropped from 34.2% in 1820 to 22.7% in 2000.
Moreover, the rebellion's long-term effects on development are similar to those that emerged in Europe following its devastating experience of the Black Death (Voigtlander and Voth 2013). When augmented with favourable changes in institutions and fiscal capacity, the Rebellion facilitated China's ensuing Malthusian transition - that is, from the Malthusian regime of high population growth and no real-income growth to the modern growth regime of sustained income growth with limited population growth (Galor and Weil 2000). This conclusion is supported by several pieces of evidence.
Based on the OLS and 2SLS estimates, in 2010, one-and-a-half centuries after the Taiping Rebellion, fiscal revenue per capita in the Taiping areas are at least 50% (0.6 standard deviations) higher than in other areas - a huge effect. This supports the war-induced state-capacity hypothesis. Furthermore, based on the OLS, Taiping areas have a significantly higher share of modern sectors - these areas' share of manufacturing in GDP is higher by 4.6% (0.4 standard deviations). Based on the 2SLS, the Taiping areas' average schooling level is 13% higher - again a large effect. These results support the Malthusian transition hypothesis.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 12:03:29 PM EST

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

The Qing dynasty was on a downswing already, struggling to manage and tax increased population (and opium demand and supply...) The industrialization became tragicomically prolonged, particularly compared with Japan. How is Japanese Malthusian transition to be compared?

The Taiping Rebellion, from 1851 to 1864, was the deadliest civil war in history.

So it beats Mao's Long March (and then Giant Leap)?

by das monde on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 01:17:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Great Leap

It is widely regarded by historians that The Great Leap resulted in tens of millions of deaths.[ A lower-end estimate is 18 million, while extensive research by Chinese historian Yu Xiguang ests the death toll from the movement is closer to 55.6 million.

So if the figure of 70 million deaths from Taiping is correct, the answer is yes. (I can't check the 70 million figure, as the source is in Chinese. I thought the standard figure was 20 million).

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 01:28:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Steve Pinker algebra

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 02:12:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No false precision here (none / 0)

Radio War Nerd EP #74--Taiping Rebellion | Gary Brecher on Patreon

Guest: Carl Zha
The Taiping Rebellion was the deadliest war of the 19th C, maybe in history--between 20 million and 100 million died in fighting between a Chinese cult leader's army in southern China, and the decaying Qing dynasty . .

by generic on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 03:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No false precision here (none / 0)

"Chinese cult leader" ... He was the younger brother of Jesus Christ.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 04:14:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Wikipedia says "20-30 million dead (best estimate)", and "estimates of the war dead ranging from 20-70 million to as high as 100 million".

The 1927-1949 war: "c. 8 million casualties total", plus "c. 7 million" under the Japanese occupation.

by das monde on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 03:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

China's brightest children are being recruited to develop AI 'killer bots'

Beijing Institute of Technology recruits 31 'patriotic' youngsters for new AI weapons development programme
Expert in international science policy describes course as 'extremely powerful and troubling'

by das monde on Thu Nov 15th, 2018 at 11:53:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nothing New (none / 0)

Except for the "AI" nonsense the major power have been working on this for decades. The basic technology for micro-drone swarms has been lying around since the mid-80s.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Nov 15th, 2018 at 04:54:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It is complex (none / 0)

The Seneca Rebound: Why Growth is Faster after Collapse. Explaining the European World Dominance

the expansion of the European social system didn't go on smoothly, but in bursts. Over some two millennia, the European population grew from a few tens of millions up to the current 700 million people. In the process, it underwent at least three major crashes but, every time, it restarted growing. This bumpy expansion trajectory is typical of complex systems which tend to show what I call the "Seneca Effect," cycles of slow growth and fast collapse.
[...] The disappearance of a large fraction of the population frees some previously cultivated land for forests to regrow. Then, when the population starts re-growing, people find the new forests as a near-pristine source of wood and -- once cut -- of fertile soil, and the cycle restarts. The new cycle may grow faster than the earlier one because society still remembers the social structures and the technologies of the previous cycle. This is the "Seneca Rebound" -- growth may be faster after collapse.

by das monde on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 01:17:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It is complex (none / 0)

"broken window" fallacy, restated

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 02:14:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 1)

I find the lack of population data curious - births per woman, age of mother at first birth, etc. If they want to measure a shift from what they call a Malthusian regime, checking if such a shift occurs seems to be step one.

And then expanding the economic model until present time without mentioning what happened with different provinces during the time after the studied period, but before the present time, is just irresponsible. It reads like a fishing trip for data that supports the theory without looking at error sources.

What kind of historians have written this? Oh, they are economists. Never mind.

by fjallstrom on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 01:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Periodic "fertility" surveillance of ROW by westworld tends to presume preponderance of live births per female in aggregate, ceteris paribus. Frequency of live births must be the only explanation for catastrophic population growth brought to bear by ROW. Which is ironic, never mind current estimation of ROW morbity and mortality or current estimated ROW census figures, contenporaneously reported by local jurisdictions. Those are assumed corrupt, as is the custom. Inherent corruption and ignorance necessitates restatement over time-space: besserwissen.

The purpose of these polemical exercises is not to communicate "objective" facts.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 02:45:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Flyover France -- the forgotten frontier

As with the American heartland, the overwhelming sense one has of north eastern France is of space and disconnection. Indeed, France east of Paris and up to the northern border represents one extreme of la diagonale du vide or the 'empty diagonal' -- an area of low population density that stretches from the north east of France to the south west. This is the heart of the heart of western Europe, and yet so depopulated that the geographer Jean-Francois Gravier called it the 'French desert'.

Long terms effects of ???

by das monde on Fri Nov 23rd, 2018 at 10:03:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

erm first world war?

Not being flippant. It's just that most of the French population lived in a peasant economy until about 1950, and the north and northeast bore the brunt of destruction.

But the more reasonable answer is : rust belt. Those regions had the coal and steel.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Fri Nov 23rd, 2018 at 10:43:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Our geographically challenged American friends would be well inspired to check, you know, real facts and figures.

For instance, this map, showing population densities as of 2009. You can see that most regions in the north and north-eastern France are actually quite heavily populated.

I remember my geography classes from high school where the teacher would draw a diagonal line from Nice to Calais: above that line, the mostly industrialized regions with big population centers like Nice, Lyon, Strasbourg, Paris, Lille... Below the diagonal: the mostly rural parts of France in the west and southwest.

Now, the sparsely populated regions in France actually run from a vaguely north-southwesterly diagonal ("diagonale du vide"), encompassing mountainous regions and rural areas in Limousin and Aquitaine. Not surprisingly, other mountainous regions, like the Alpes, the Pyrénées and Corsica also have a lower population density.

In addition, the extreme right (FN/RN) vote correlates very poorly with population density: it is lower in the west (Brittany, Vendée) and the southwest (Limousin, Auvergne, Aquitaine, western Languedoc) and quite high in heavily populated North (Lille) and Alsace.

by Bernard (bernard) on Fri Nov 23rd, 2018 at 08:51:14 PM EST
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Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Also, the NE was also occupied by Germany from 1870 until the end of WW1. That would have led to a certain amount of de-population as the french left german territory, even before ww1.

It's odd, irrespective of the actual figures, the area does feel abandoned. I was there a couple of times a few years back visiting a friend on a canal cruise and it just feels empty, like people just upped and moved away.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 03:01:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Only the Alsace-Lorraine part.

According to Wikipedia, there was a limited migration after the German annexation - 50 000 to 130 000 or 3-7% of the population. Another 100 000 or so German speakers were expelled in 1921. And then you have the war deaths.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alsace-Lorraine

by fjallstrom on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 03:37:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

It's odd, irrespective of the actual figures, the area does feel abandoned. I was there a couple of times a few years back visiting a friend on a canal cruise and it just feels empty, like people just upped and moved away.

Lorraine and the north were France's industrial heartland until the 1970s: Coal mines in the north, steel mills in Lorraine. Many immigrants moved in there in the first half of the 20th century, mostly Poles and Italians (including Michel Platini's grandparents).

However, as noted by demographers, départements in northeastern France have been loosing population over the past twenty years:

Between 1999 and 2006 all French departments have grown in population with the exception of the following seven departments: Allier and Cantal in Auvergne, Creuse in Limousin, Ardennes and Haute-Marne in Champagne-Ardenne, Nièvre in Burgundy, and Vosges in Lorraine.

Your feeling of emptiness is actually the result of desindustrialization in France's rustbelt. Allier, Cantal and Creuse are sparsely populated rural départements in the middle of Massif Central, and depopulation is not as visible there (great outdoors though).

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 04:46:47 PM EST
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Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

Outdoor France - the wild parts

there is a large swathe of France, running from the Belgian border in the north east, to the Pyrenees in the south west, that is unofficially known as la diagonale du vide (the diagonal of emptiness), which contains many of the least populated areas of France (other than high mountain areas), plenty of wide open spaces, and ample opportunity for hiking, rambling , cycling and outdoor activities.

by das monde on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 12:10:55 PM EST
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Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 0)

The people who live there can look up and watch their rulers wing their way from Paris to Brussels, Frankfurt or Zurich, but on the ground, there's nothing much going on.

From Paris to Brussels? Why would anybody do that? Haven't English-language writers heard of the TGV?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Nov 23rd, 2018 at 11:53:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (none / 1)

All airline services between Paris and Brussels have been ditched for over twenty years now. Killed by Thalys.

Haven't those guys ever watched Clint Eastwood movies?

I mean: one hour and twenty minutes from Paris Gare du Nord to Brussels South (Bruxelles Midi). Who would bother to fly?

(Except for French presidents: Hollande went to Brussels riding the Thalys once, but the security detail was too cumbersome.)

by Bernard (bernard) on Fri Nov 23rd, 2018 at 08:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long term effects of Taiping (4.00 / 2)

For fun, I looked up John Francis Gravel and the French Desert

He wrote the paper in 1947. It was about how Paris concentrated all the wealth of the nation. (He advocated coercitive measures to fix that, including massive but selective immigration.)

But he didn't designate any particular regions as "desert" : just all of France except Paris, Lyon, Marseille and the Riviera.

The imbalance was so great that concerted public policies to attenuate it were undertaken in the following decades.

However, in the Macron era, you're either a winner or a loser. This includes territories. The abandonment of the "peripheral" territories and their inhabitants (those that cost the government money, one way or the other) is, in my view, the prime cause of the current "Gilet jaunes" rebellion.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 11:21:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: November Open Thread (none / 1)

Not having Peterson videos here. Done with this shit.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 12th, 2018 at 01:45:40 PM EST

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