Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

TWO MORE YEARS OF WAR IN USA

by ARGeezer Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 04:58:42 AM EST

The Democrats have decisively retaken the House of Representatives, but the 'Blue Wave' was met with a cancelling 'Red Wave'. So Trump and Trumpism was not as well repudiated, as might have been hoped. But the position of the Democratic Party has greatly improved.

The Democrats have also greatly improved their position in state houses. A significant majority of US residents will now live in states with Democratic governors. This will be decisive for election supervision in 2020 and for the redistricting that will follow. Given that the Democrats only have the House, that leaves them still in the position of being the opposition until 2020, which I believe will also be a good year for Democrats.

With the House comes the chairmanship of powerful investigative committees. The Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee can, by law, directly request the tax returns of President Trump. The IRS, under Trump, might refuse, but the law is clear. Adam Schiff will become chair of the House Intelligence Committee and Elijah Cummings will become Chair of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. These are all very intelligent and capable men. It will be an interesting two years.  

Front paged - Frank Schnittger


Display:
My prediction - as it becomes clear that appeals by obvious racists to White Nationalism is a winning tactic, it will become more common. This will continue to activate non-voters - who are not, as long thought, liberal leaning young people but rather racist scumbags who stayed home because they couldn't stomach the play-nice-with-multiculturalism bipartisan approach of the 80's and 90's.

Dems will make gestures to do the right thing in various ways, but when faced with obvious bad-faith arguments by Nazis, they find themselves powerless to control the narrative or get their message across. Several of them also have unfortunate accidents.

Trump wins re-election, and there is another total wipeout of Democrats outside blue-leaning coastal bastions. Happiness and joy reigns across the land.

by Zwackus on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 06:05:59 AM EST
At that point, maybe they hold a constitutional convention to repeal the 14th amendment, among other things, and maybe the 16th amendment as well - the one that legalizes income taxes. Maybe a new amendment to repeal birthright citizenship, and allow the widespread repudiation of current citizens.
by Zwackus on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 06:09:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do not believe that the results of Nov 6 indicate that Gen X, Millennials or the current generation of young US citizens are predominantly racist low lifes. They did turn out in record numbers for the midterm and broke decisively for the Democrats, as problematic as the Democratic Party is. In hope vs fear contests it is important to have charismatic candidates that inspire their followers. We had that in some cases and some won. The most outstanding example, IMO, was Beto O'Rourke, who came within 3 pts of unseating Ted Cruz.

The new Democratic Congress will have numerous minority members and a large number of women. That we have a Progressive majority in the House is not vital at this point, as nothing progressive that the House might pass would get through the Senate or past Trump. But the dynamic of the Administration & Senate vs. the 'resistance' will continue and will be to the continued advantage of the Democrats in 2020. That is the election that will really be the tell so far as the future of our current form of government, corrupted as it is, and of the possibilities of reforming that government in progressive ways.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 08:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I couldn't bear to watch the US channels during the night. It became clear from the outset in de race for senate from Indiana that there would be no Blue Wave of Blue Tsunami. Did go downstairs a few times to read the mood of analysts and watch the results coming in.

Women made the difference for Democrats as they outperformed in the suburbs where issues of education and healthcare moved the voters. The balance of governorships were so lob sided in favor of Republicans that in recent years the redistricting has secured a permanent advantage for Republicans in state legislature. Also the damning suppression of voters and the ability to cast a ballot makes the US a third world nation.

Diversity won yesterday in the Midterm Election with many women getting elected and minority representation. The Blue strongholds got stronger and the white male red states kept their support for nationalism, supremacists, hatred for minorities and Trump. In Texas, Arizona and Florida the Republicans were hurting due to the messages of Trump on the migration issues and battering of minorities. Trump sees it differently of course. What a great pain in the ass is the leader of that powerful nation that is losing its international standing each year in the New American Century. George Bush - Barack Obama - Donald Trump ... American losing its way in the world.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 09:50:30 AM EST
Democrats did as well as was likely in a system that favours Republicans, both by the structure of the Senate and by the voter suppression and gerrymandering - before you even look at the possibly of vote rigging. I don't know what anyone else expected. Gives a proper chance - which the leadership will do its best to squander - to resist Trump's agenda and keep him on the defensive.

Trick is avoiding taking the blame for the economic downturn that's coming.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 10:19:28 AM EST
Put it this way: if they hadn't taken the House the US would be rightly fucked.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 11:08:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The US is still rightly fucked.

There are inklings of real progressive change in both the UK and US - very obviously among younger voters and younger representatives.

The trick is going to be to survive long enough to give them a chance at the top jobs.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 07:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump (thinks...):

  1. If the Dems win the House, I'll blame them for the downturn.

  2. If they don't win the House, I'll blame them all the same.


I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 11:53:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is that.

He'll also blame them for half a dozen disasters chosen at random from the Bible. It's not as if he's constrained by reality in what he says.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 01:29:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 02:21:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see how this election alters distribution of electoral college in the next general election

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 05:54:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 06:29:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No more chads. In modern America we've got unprecedented high humidity and, of course, AI.

alrighty, then. A note on the feckless electorate from MarketWatch (otherwise pre-occupied by stock volatility).


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 06:47:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The consequences of this election will affect the conduct of the 2020 election and the following redistricting. There will now be Democratic governors in Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin, with Connecticut very likely. Add to this the liklihood of further statehouse pickups in 2020 and the subsequent redistricting will be much more favorable to Democrats that would have been otherwise.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 09:03:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only a constitutional amendment could do that, and that is unlikely/unwise in this environment.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 09:30:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My observation is, (D) voter gains in this election is concentrated in states where which won't shift electoral college. Racking up districts of likely voters in the same states that served HRC will not dislodge Trump.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 09:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
30 House seats "flipped" by the Dems (I supposed this is US-Eng for "won from the Repubs").

Out of these 30, at least half (16) in states that went for Trump in 2016 - 4 in PA alone and 2 in FL and MI.

Granted, the Repubs also "flipped" two seats (in PA and in MN - a HRC 2016 state) and I understand there are races still being counted in CA and WA, but this is not insignificant, considering the 2016 presidential election was decided by less than one hundred thousand voters in states like PA and MI.

by Bernard on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 11:57:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Add one more:  New Mexico 2nd CD.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 05:19:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One of my frustrations has been the inability to find any accurate source of information on who won where. It is annoying and unsatisfying to know that the Democrats gained 'over thirty seats'. Maybe Wiki will start to update, but they had not overnight. How hard can it be? A list of states with results for Governor and US Senator, (if any), a count of US Representatives by party, and a current count of state legislatures and senates by party. That would be an order of magnitude better than anything I have found. Perhaps there are such sites behind paywalls.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 04:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe it lacks some information you want, but for me Guardian has more than enough information.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2018/nov/06/midterm-elections-2018-live-results-l atest-winners-and-seats?CMP=results_blog

You can get down to the individual races, get the current and status of the election.

What I would like to know is if the election has shifted the distribution within the Democratic party. Did progressives gain seats?

by fjallstrom on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 06:31:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. As to progressiveness, it sorta depends on how one defines it. Some would have it that we have 80+ new progressives. But a number of those come from military and intelligence backgrounds. Time will tell how progressive they are.

My question is how many of them have any understanding of MMT and of the problems with mainstream economics. Not very many, but many may be open to such approaches when they have the opportunity to actually push measures they desire, i.e. after 2020 at best. But then, as they say, 'times make the man'. Beto O'Rourke, Gavin Newsome, and several others under 60 are available.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 07:25:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Party representation by congressional district within a state has no bearing on allocation of electors granted to each state.

FAQ: Each party's caucus in each state nominates and elects its slate of electors tied to its party's candidate for POTUS. This function is ceremonial except that electors of any party are not obligated to pledge their vote's to the the candidate elected by popular vote. The general population does not elect them; the number of votes cast does not alter their number. Voters in each state elect one POTUS candidate, one set of electors.

Do you understand the electoral paradox established by the US Constitution? HRC did not.

The number of electors per state is fixed, independent of party affiliations within each state.
"Electoral votes are allocated among the states based on the Census."
(D) are interested in counting greater numbers of live bodies (citizen, resident alien, or neither) for the 2020 census in order only to increase the number of districts and electors allocated to a state. Doing so necessarily subtracts from complementary states' House representation, because the total number of House representatives is fixed at 435.
"Every state is allocated a number of votes equal to the number of senators and representatives in its U.S. Congressional delegation."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 09:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Taking Up 5 Cases, High Court Clears Way for Trial on Census Change
Led by New York, the challengers in the case contend that Commerce Secretary Wilbur ross added the citizenship question with ["]discriminatory intent["].
NB. Notice that the so-called intent does not reach for the very obvious POLITICAL consequence of distributing congressional districts out low-density pop states --everywhere by the coasts.
The challengers contend that the citizenship question will discourage participation by immigrants of color, causing population undercounts that will reduce the political power and federal funding of blue states for a decade.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 09:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by the s/b but the coasts, ie. central USA, "Trump Country"


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 09:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for this summary on the Electoral College.
Yes, I'm familiar with the POTUS election system and how a candidate can get elected while losing the popular vote.

What I noted is merely that the Dems made inroads in states that Trump carried in 2016. I mentioned PA and MI in particular because Trump won them by only a few thousand votes in 2016 (I'm not a specialist, I just read Wiki). This might not necessarily happen again in 2020.

Also among the so-called "swing states", Florida was won by Trump with only 80000 votes (out of 9.4 millions); will it happen again in 2020? (I understand FL amendment 4 may have an impact too)

by Bernard on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 10:57:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm pointing out that the predictive power of mid-term election results on POTUS election results is weak. The press and its clients are primarily interested in generating dramatic, epic tales about party loyalty and voter participation that scarcely exist.

Yes, Trump can win on electoral results alone, again.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 11:45:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thinking About 2020 Nate Silver, 538
So here's some slightly scary news for Trump: The 2018 map looked more like 2012 than 2016, with Democrats performing quite well in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the three states that essentially won Trump the election two years ago.

As a "fun," day-after-the-election experiment, I decided to add up the total popular vote for the U.S. House in each state, based on ABC News's tally of votes as of Wednesday afternoon. This isn't a perfect exercise, by any means. The vote is still being counted in many states; there are a few dozen congressional districts where one of the parties (usually Republicans) didn't nominate a candidate. I did make one adjustment for a slightly different problem, which is that Florida doesn't bother to count votes in uncontested races, something that cost Democrats in the neighborhood of 720,000 votes off their popular-vote tally in that state.2

With those caveats aside, here's the map you come up with if you count up the popular vote. It ought to look familiar. In fact, it's the same exact map by which Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012, except with Ohio going to Republicans. It would have equated to 314 electoral votes for Democrats and 224 for the GOP.


Then a map less favorable to the Democrats for 2020:

Of course the map looks good for you when you've had a good night. How about in an average year instead, when the overall vote is fairly close? Democrats currently lead in the national popular vote for the House by around 6 percentage points, and they're likely to run that total up to 7 or perhaps 8 percentage points as additional votes are counted, mostly from the West Coast mail-balloting states (California, Oregon, Washington). On the other hand, the Democratic margin is a bit inflated because Republicans let quite a few districts go uncontested. So let's go ahead and subtract 6 points from the Democrat's 2018 margin in every state; this is a benchmark for what things might have looked like in a roughly neutral year:


IMO, 2020 will be about as neutral as was 2018, So, perhaps we need not despair. There seems to be a reasonable hope for a 2020 outcome favorable to Democrats. And it seems likely that, by 2020, Democrats might have a new House Speaker and another crop of more progressive members.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 06:36:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

2016 Actual - House [POLITICO]

2018 Current -House [538 shown: last update 227(D),198 (R); BLOOMBERG:last update 231 (D), 198(R), 11 outstanding]

::
What do these maps signify? (1.) Geographic area of congressional districts (2.) Partisan "control" of geographic area (3.) "Correlation" of partisan districts to electoral outcome in 2016, when Trump won greatest number of electors, which Nate Silver does not want to discuss. Why? Correlation of district representation to electoral outcome is weak. Correlation of voter participation --greatest in POTUS election-- to candidate is strong. And the opposition party candidate with "charisma" to unseat an incumbent is unknown. Anyone Butrump is not a candidate.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Nov 10th, 2018 at 03:02:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here, Richard Florida hosts Rahm Emmanuel's trash talk about "Blue Wave" across Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). West Virginia is to a Chicago suburb as every teachers' union strike is to #GoogleWalkout.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Nov 10th, 2018 at 10:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gaining state houses in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will reduce the potential for vote manipulation there and Trump will have a hard time winning in 2020 without them.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 12:42:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
m'k. We can return to that theory after the 7 Nov election results for states' legislatures are completed ... preferably this century.

tabulated seats by party, by state as of 7 Nov 2018

ncsl.org summary
current composition, as of 7 Nov 2017

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 12:22:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Republicans lapped the Democrats during Obama's first term ... will cost time and major effort to return on equal footing.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 12:30:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but here is the truth about POTUS "calculus" that some people are unable or unwilling to accept. And that confusion is somewhat understandable, because the pulp fiction produced by the press over the centuries assures itself that the POTUS candidate represents a market for salacious, partisan intrigues. Meanwhile ...

Voters elect one candidate. The one candidate owns the electors.

Voters do not elect a "party" for POTUS. Voters elect one candidate for each office of local and state government.

Voters do not elect "policy" as a rule, for the simple reason that election does neither predicates nor guarantees "policy" in fact.

et voilà

The Ultimate 'Minority'
So who does this one candidate 'represent'? The one with the gun -- $$$$, race or ethnicity, sexual orientation [!], police powers --the elite power broker with whom a voter is thought, generally, to 'identify'.

While I was slumming with the CA Cohort of Petty Landlords, I toyed with the theory, "Big Man Syndrome."
I'd trot out a US counterfactual adoration anytime some UID fingered "third-world dictator" crimes-against-humanity.

Now, suffice to say, democracy is not well understood.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 01:28:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm inclined to wait for (D) to squander House leadership. That's the party's M.O. "Russia-gate" and the "Elvis-Hunt" ultimately sabotaged senate friendlies, losing senate swing votes good and proper. And let's not talk about howt that helped (R) fund this "Voter Integrity" fiasco.

Abrams, rightly, has refused to concede to Kemp, and Bloomberg has bogarted a number of final results-- MOE < 1% - 2%. Litigation is the future of Shelby vs Holder.

(D) should talk a great game about all the action they would take IF the (R) didn't rule the senate. Pick any topic. That is the easy playbook. They'll run with the catalogue from now to 2024, because the DNC can't run a plausible Trump-weight candidate --not Harris or Booker or HRC. Pelosi and Schumer is so "T. May" they've never run.

I don't think they can stick to it.  A real opposition party should be on offense to disrupt the senate class of 2020. Instead they'll squander "capital" on pseudo-impeachment challenges and "historic firsts" optics. They should be sending cash down ticket to disrupt conservatives' states' legislatures in 2020 with specific pledges to reverse specific laws.

I don't think DNC is prepared or even motivated to pull from the backbench to replace POTUS in 2020. Trench "warfare" between elites seems to me an apt and cynical analogy on the anniversary of WWI armistice.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 01:39:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Granted the Democrats still have a weak position and MAY misplay their hand. But we have to see how Trump will respond to his newfound vulnerabilities. Congressman Jerry Nadler is set to become Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, which has significant power over the operation of the Justice Department. He has already indicated he plans on taking steps to protect Mueller's investigation, so a lot depends on who does what when. The most crucial period will be from now until the new Congress convenes in January.

We also will be finding out more about how various groups voted in this election. A lot of matters are purely speculation until we understand more about that issue. One reasonable certainty is a downturn in the economy. But that can play both ways. Hard times make for conservative politics, so Trump is well positioned to further demagogue those issues.

But one positive from this election is the broad support the country shows for reform of health care delivery. Expect the House to be making clear overtures to the White House on control of drug prices Success on such issues would blunt allegations of obstructionism by the Democrats, especially contrasted to the Republican performance after Obama's election.

Another positive is the broadly held view that the Republican Tax cuts are bad for the country. The country needs more domestic spending in areas that employ people in the bottom 90% of the income distribution spectrum. It is going to be a war in all but the military sense and the Republicans still have the preponderance of power. There was never much chance of any other result. But there is no necessity to despair. Optimism can be a choice.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 04:58:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it's looking like a score draw with Democrats picking up the House but losing some close races to lose the Senate. Hardly a ringing endorsement for Trump but not a blue wave either. The Republicans did considerably better than the Democrats did during Obama's first mid-term elections in 2010. Worse, there is still no sign of a credible opponent to Trump for the 2020 Presidential election.

At best we are looking at some brakes being applied to Trump maladministration at the national level, and some reduction of gerrymandering and voter suppression in local elections. But the Senate will still be ratifying Trump nominees for high office, and allowing him to unilaterally abrogate arms control and de-nuclerisation treaties.

Meanwhile the window of opportunity to reverse or slow down climate change is closing. Humanitarian crises will increase in frequency and intensity and regional wars will proliferate. Time to hunker down and prepare for a long war.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 02:56:15 PM EST
(R) locked out every bill (D) House could pass.
(R) took comfortable senate majority.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 04:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, both parties adore Trump sanctions. So they got that going for consensus.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 04:09:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump may well have bitten off more than he can chew with China. It seems the Chinese view his actions as an existential threat and are playing for the long term. Already Tump's petulant and impulsive actions on trade have done serious damage to the US economy and they will only get worst. There will be no further imports from China that were arranged before tariffs were imposed and China is revising its schedules to maximize its long term benefit and minimize its long term damage. And China can do much to discomfort Trump in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

For the USA the worst damage has already been done. China has acquired most of our most advanced technology from one sided deals it made with short sighted US technology corporations. Where that didn't work they have used espionage. The US response has been pathetic and Trump is ill equipped to play a smart long game.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 09:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US-China trade deficit increased.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 10:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That result was largely due to businesses ordering all that they can before the tariffs took effect. That front loaded the trade relationship numbers for the next decade or so. So US businesses had better start seeking import substitutions. At least we might be able to open some of our rare earth mines, seeing that as now being cheaper than buying from China.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 04:37:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also the Iran sanction waivers. Did you catch that last week? I wouldn't be surprised if you missed it.

I saw it first at Xinhua, later on Reuters, I think it was, which characterized responses from China, India, S Korea, and Japan as "grateful." Meanwhile S Korea's economy has been circling the bowl because of DPRK and Iran sanctions. That's how much the US Congress cares about world peace.

No waiver for any and all members of the EU. So coming into this week, EU is getting aggressive with China for preferential treatment in the Belt development.

They've sabatoged BRICS. And they've washed their hands of September's  beauty show in Africa --money for migrant-detention.

A month before all this Walmart sent the WH an earnings warning attributable to tariffs. Did you catch that?

Let's be clear. Westworld is at the end of the resource train that's been loaded with barefoot and pregnant "third-world" territories. None of these people know how to handle themselves as peers in business, so they lie, cheat and bribe, and gin up deadly intrigues that can't be solved by selling arms. That's it. There is no "advanced technology."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 12:13:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not to mention that no one has yet to explain what the US stands to gain.  More exports to China?  Hah.  Jobs returning to the US?  Double or triple hah.
by rifek on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 01:00:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank Schnittger:"Time to hunker down..."

We can expect two years of FUD - Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. Trump hopes to wear us down. We cannot let that happen to ourselves or others. For us it is two years of countering psychological warfare with our own efforts.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 11:05:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Flipping the Senate was never really an option.  Too few Rethuglican seats up.  As for the House, I expect Pelosi to punt every opportunity.  She is a corporatist, and she and her DNC/DLC/DCCC colleagues are paid very well to make sure nothing good happens.
by rifek on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 12:58:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm no military tactician, and there is no real war in the USA for territorial dominion and POWs (just the rapists). So correct me, please, if I've misread this two-front set-up.

It's a win for the economy, right?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 03:20:04 PM EST
Midterm Voters Punished Anti-Kavanaugh Democrats
The four Democratic senators facing competitive races who voted against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh lost their seats in Tuesday's midterm elections, while the sole Democratic senator who supported the judge -- West Virginia's Joe Manchin -- claimed victory.
by das monde on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 04:44:48 PM EST
Justices Find Age-Bias Law Covers Small State Employers
In the first decision of its new term, the Supreme Court ... ruled 8-0 Tuesday that employers like the Mount Lemmon Fire District - state or local government entities with fewer than 20 workers - can be sued under the ADEA. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg delivered the court's 7-page opinion affirming the Ninth Circuit.
[...]
The court's newest member, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, did not participate in the case's hearing or decision. He had not yet been confirmed when the justices heard arguments on Oct. 1.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 05:10:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correlation is not causation.  I doubt many voters based their decision on the Kavanaugh farce.  And I don't trust anything the Randonazis at Reason say.
by rifek on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 06:34:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
increase from $7.25 is not in the Speaker's deal book. Trump changed fed-covered minimum wage to $10.35 in 2017. Will the Speaker challenge Trump? Ante up to $10 or $15? No.

Power shift: What House Dems plan to do with their majority

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 08:20:56 PM EST
WSWS
Equally significant is the background of many of the Democratic candidates who won Republican seats. A large number are drawn from the military-intelligence apparatus. The World Socialist Web Site has described them as "CIA Democrats."

Winning seats (as of this writing) were at least nine such candidates, including two former CIA operatives, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Elissa Slotkin in Michigan; former military officers Max Rose in New York, Mikie Sherill in New Jersey, Chrissy Houlahan and Connor Lamb in Pennsylvania, Elaine Luria in Virginia, and Jason Crow in Colorado; and former State Department official Tom Malinowski in New Jersey, with several other races still to be decided.

These candidates will bring into the Democratic caucus in the House of Representatives the direct influence of the military-intelligence apparatus, ensuring that one of the main areas of activity in the next Congress will be Democratic Party pressure for an even more aggressive foreign policy towards Russia, Syria, Iran and other targets of American imperialism.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 08:31:11 PM EST
I don't understand why spies and soliders are in any way fit for public office. Would you vote for a murderer? Then why vote for someone whose job is literally to murder for the state?
by IdiotSavant on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 01:33:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Americans love everything military.  You have to see ordinary folks running around in camouflage garb and driving black humvees to get the feel of it.  As for torture and murder, sure they're bad, but who can think about that for more than five minutes?  Just doesn't signify.  Can't stick in the brain.  

By the way, these military-industrial-complex candidates are the Democrats' answer to their genetic inability to commit to policies that might in some way benefit the public.  Once Bill Clinton turned the Democrats into the party of wealthy corporate donors back in the 1990s there was no looking back.  Selling hope  but reneging on the change.  (Thanks, Obama, for that bit of clarity.)  For three decades the Dems have run on fooling the rubes.  It still works, but only in the coastal cities.  The country-side is too destitute to even care.  A reargard action in every sense of the word.

Yes, the Republicans can screw up:  Think Scott in Wisconsin--with his Foxconn deal that was just too clumsy.  (Maybe if Foxconn had included the suicide nets?)  But Wisconsin never should have been Repub in the first place.  

Trump will win in 2020 unless the Democrats run Tulsi Gabbard (:D will never happen).  

You have to understand:  What follows Trump will be worse.

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 06:11:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're all friends again
WASHINGTON -- A victorious Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday said Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives will use their newly won majority to pursue a bipartisan agenda for a country that she said has had "enough of division."
by generic on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 09:13:31 PM EST
U.S. House freshman class includes most veterans in nearly a decade
75

archived
wsws.org, FEC candidate filings, March 2018

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 at 10:07:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wonder what will happen in respect to the federal deficit.  
The Democrats will be expected to maintain spending on social benefits and perhaps push for infrastructure improvements, but I can't see Republicans letting them have it.  Indeed, I suspect Trump will make a show of shutting down the government and probably starting a patriotic war of some sort, probably with Iran, to solidify military spending.  Democrats are always suckers for a macho war.
Regardless, the deficit will continue to grow and Trump's trade war with most everyone is bound to have an effect on the Dollar as the premiere reserve currency eventually.  Without the almighty Dollar's special status, what happens to the American standard of living?  American exceptionalism is past due for a history lesson.
by Andhakari on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 07:53:20 AM EST
The Democrats will be expected to maintain spending on social benefits and perhaps push for infrastructure improvements,
Nancy Pelosi Promises Democrats Will Handcuff Democratic Agenda If They Retake the House
In the first outline of the legislative agenda House Democrats would pursue if they take the majority in November, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has made the public a big promise, vowing to handcuff her party's progressive ambitions, including in the event that a Democratic president succeeds Donald Trump, by resurrecting the "pay-go" rule that mandates all new spending is offset with budget cuts or tax increases.

Have to starve the poors to not burden their possible children with the debt™
by generic on Thu Nov 8th, 2018 at 09:11:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In other news, Pelosi Is What She's Always Been.
by rifek on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 06:36:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not the dimpled chads this time, but just keep counting the votes .... or we'll send John Bolton in to finish the job. America a third world nation on elections, voter representation and counting votes.

Florida Senate Race Heads for Automatic Recount

The Broward County vote count is hugely consequential as Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson's campaign is holding out hope that it could help erase the existing 22,000 vote gap separating him from former Republican governor Rick Scott.

A recount in both the Florida Senate and gubernatorial races appears likely, as state law mandates that one be conducted if the final margin in a contest is slimmer than 0.5 percentage points, which it is in both cases.

Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions - U.S. Midterm Elections | OSCE - ODIHR |

Campaign finance rules are enforced at federal level, with few limits on donations and no limits on expenditure, including by so-called Super PACs. While financial reports were submitted and published expeditiously, some non-profit organizations are not required to disclose their reports, undermining an otherwise transparent system. These were the most expensive mid-term elections in the US, projected at USD 5.2 billion, with most spending on behalf of the two main parties.

The media is pluralistic and vibrant, offering voters a wide range of opportunities to inform themselves, but is increasingly polarized. The legal framework provides for limited regulation and few rules for broadcast media during elections. Continuous verbal attacks on journalists and news media by senior officials raised concerns over the safety of journalists and undermined the essential role of media in a democratic society. Cable TV news coverage reflected the existing polarization of political and electoral discussion. The public broadcasters offered balanced coverage of the two main parties. The repeal of "net neutrality" rules raised concerns over potentially reduced access to information.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 07:37:38 AM EST
White persons only :) ... but property too was counted and recognized as "free" or just as "slave".

1800 United States Census



Why States Still Matter
Democrats got millions more votes - so how did Republicans win the Senate?

What we have seen in 2016 and the 2018 midterm election, the Republicans did a better job in turning blue states and have set up a red block to make a change more difficult. Success breeds success ... voters align to winners. Hopefully the existential threats on planet Earth will change a few minds ... however one has to overcome utter ignorance with the public and the press. Both Washington DC and the press are dominated by big money from capitalists so all social programs will remain under threat especially in an economic downturn. A recession is due in 2020 and the tariffs warfare [China and EU] will have an impact on the US corn belt and agriculture. Soon US products will flow into the UK once Brexit takes a hold and EU goods will be priced too high with all those rules on food safety from Brussels. The mishap on the TIPP will partly succeed in the new trade agreement between PM May and President Trump.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 08:12:15 AM EST
Rubio's remarks are hilarious. Kemp did a great job in Georgia!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 01:56:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
About that map: I was moved to re-locate a reference to the 1850 census. A few years ago, '12-'13? I came across a digital folio at Census or National Archive that compiled cartography, demography, and GNP stats by commodity by state. The drawings are beautiful, speaking of aesthetic.

Now, I'm having trouble recollecting the link from my local files (I'll get to that later). The search engines are giving me trouble serving "1850 GNP". Why is that odd? The term "GDP" didn't exist until Kuznets invented this econometry in the 1920s. The search engines want to serve me all sorts of white paper tripe published in the last 30 years, purporting to restate or analyze GDP[!], 1800-1890. (Did you know records of the 1890 census were destroyed by fire within the decade proceeding? Funny, that. I just found out a coincidence. According to historian Chas. Beard, Treasury bond records sold/redeemed under the 1st administration were destroyed by fire, too!)

So I get into the hot, NEW! Census Bureau website design. COME TO FIND OUT, front-end of the database has been profoundly arranged by "subject" (check out that list!) to deliver personal ephemera and "Americana" artifacts. Chief among services supporting "visitors"? Genealogy look-up tables and commercial vendors. Why is this a significant modification to knowledge management?

It's a set up, slick and insidious, for policy change coming down the pipe: citizenship and reparation. Mark my words.

Anyhoo, 1850 Census: The Seventh Census of the United States (pub. 1853), "curated"

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 06:28:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting!

Rewriting history Pax Americana ...

1850 Census: The Seventh Census of the United States | Hathi Trust |

There should be sufficient original papers archived.

Related ...

The New Left and American Foreign Policy during the Age of Normalcy: A Re-Examination
New Left and Antiwar Movement History and Geography

The pendulum swings, the US is in an age of hostilities, aggression and civil unrest ...

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 07:15:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
En leiu of GDP you might investigate tariffs and trade in that period. 'The Harmony of Interests' by Henry Cary has some contemporary data on these matters. As Polanyi noted, economics did not properly apply to the 19th Century USA, as economics was then conceived as the science of the allocation of scarce resources to various competing ends, while land, labor and money were essentially free. Land was free due to the availability of vast tracts for homesteading until the 1890s, labor was abundant and cheap due to the constant flow of immigrants, and money could be dug from the earth in the form of gold and silver.

Of course the benefits of these factors accrued primarily to white males with the wealthy benefiting disproportionately, as always. How these considerations applied could become quite complex and law was a sometime thing.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 07:36:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. I meant, GNP; GNP is subject of the title. I want to retrieve a specific document --containing color plates-- that I reviewed once before. It's the color plates that I wanted at first to share with Oui.

I downloaded and read a lot of 1850, 1930, and 1940 and certain supplementals during my sentence in the CA Cohort. Beside the fact that these primary sources are auspicious  US Americican records --on a policy basis-- fact checking that lot was a 24hr job.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 08:38:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reynolds's political map of the United States

Large map - Freedom vs. Slavery : Comparison of the chief statistics of the free states and of the slave states, according to the U.S. census of 1850

[Source: The African American Odyssey: A Quest for Full Citizenship]

1800s-1850s: Expansion of slavery in the U.S.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 10:00:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm feeling embarrassed now, even a little more demented than usual, to have led you down a rabbit hole.

I'll think of it eventually.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 9th, 2018 at 11:38:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]