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Easing Cliff Edge - EU Announces Measures by No-deal

by Oui Thu Dec 20th, 2018 at 09:59:43 AM EST

As the World Turns ...

BoE warns EU that £41tn of derivatives at risk after Brexit | FT - Oct. 9, 2018 |

Europe makes contingency plans for clearing-houses after Brexit | The Economist - Nov. 29, 2018 |

AS THEY PREPARE for Brexit, many of London's financial firms have begun to move some staff, or operations, to the continent. But financial contracts, notably derivatives, are difficult to uproot. London's clearing-houses, which ensure that a contract is honoured even if one side goes bust, are globally important. As fears of an acrimonious Brexit have risen, so too have those of havoc. Now European Union regulators have unveiled contingency plans.

Continued below the fold ...


Clearing-houses have grown vastly in significance since the financial crisis, after which the G20 group of economies made it mandatory to settle most simple derivatives trades through them. London's three big clearing-houses handle vast amounts of derivatives, and much of the trading cannot be done elsewhere. LCH, London's largest clearing-house, clears interest-rate swaps with a notional value of over $340trn, making up 95% of the world's total. LME Clear (part of the London Metal Exchange) is near-irreplaceable for precious-metals traders. ICE Clear Europe handles half of the world's oil-futures contracts, and is typically the only place to go for those linked to the Brent benchmark.

EU 'no deal' prep means City avoids cliff-edge fears | City A.M. |

Among its 14 measures to minimise disruption, the Commission confirmed reports that EU firms would be granted temporary access to London clearing houses for a period of 12 months after 29 March.

The no-deal measures also include plans to allow hauliers to carry freight by road into the EU for nine months without applying for permits and for British airlines to fly into and out of the EU but not within the bloc.

UK citizens living in the EU will also continue to be considered legal residents after Britain leaves on 29 March, the European Commission said today.

Brexit: European Commission implements "no-deal" Contingency Action Plan in specific sectors

Pls fill-out this poll to avoid a second referendum :(

Poll
[No] Fireworks in House of Commons: what will happen next
. More debate on Corbyn's "stupid woman" 0%
. Mace should be removed and truth be told 0%
. PM Theresa May throws the towel 0%
. House of Commons white hankies majority on no confidence vote 0%
. Quiet before the storm, UK-EU deal passes next month 0%
. Parliament legislates to ban no-deal scenario 0%
. British politics frozen as no-deal scenario unavoidable 40%
. EC blinks and extends March 29 deadline creating more chaos 40%
. Did I miss your option? 20%

Votes: 5
Results | Other Polls
Display:
HOC votes for "People's vote"/second referendum (not counting the 1975 referendum)?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 20th, 2018 at 01:11:29 PM EST
First, AFAIK - and I don't know much! - all of these trades are handled by computers.  Whether the computers are physically in London or Paris or Nairobi matters not a whit.  

Second, if this system is not backed-up by another system, in another country, running the trades, etc., in parallel and in background with the primary system everyone associated with these exchanges, down to the guy who brings the sandwiches on Thursday afternoon, are cretins.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 20th, 2018 at 07:17:34 PM EST
And banking/financial regulations between the City of London and Brussels ...

EU watchdog seeks to avert Brexit disorder in euro clearing | CNBC - Oct. 2018|

LCH can't apply for EU authorisation as a foreign clearing house or central counterparty (CCP) until after Britain has left the EU, meaning a potentially destabilizing legal hiatus looms.

"To respond to those risks to the stability of EU financial markets, in my view we need to ensure continued access to UK CCPs for EU clearing members and trading venues," Steven Maijoor, chair of the bloc's European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) said.

It is the clearest signal yet that LCH in London would not face a problem obtaining EU authorisation. Scott O'Malia, chief executive of global derivatives industry body ISDA, called last week for such authorisation to be a matter of urgency.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Thu Dec 20th, 2018 at 07:48:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect, a few eurotrib readers have been expecting the EC and FSA would find 'work around' the minute that the City sounded alarm over revoked 'passporting'.

2016.

Confirmation has been riding under the radar in the draft withdrawal agreements anyway, AFAIK, while cross-border labor and HH 'self-deporting' sucked all the air out 'cliff diving'. Reasonable, I suppose. Capital must flow, yo.

Whatever it takes.

archived lane
Now the City wants a special exception for passporting., Aug 2016, in < wheeze > Will a Brexit agreement require ratification by 28 Member states?
 

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Dec 20th, 2018 at 08:51:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After two years of chaos, how can anyone think that there will not be more chaos?
by asdf on Fri Dec 21st, 2018 at 04:03:26 AM EST
Cartoon "The Gap in the Bridge" by Ravenhill in Dec. 1919

Interbellum Years

"You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you." -- Leo Tolstoy

In the United States' case, that inward economic turn matched their diplomatic isolationism. Woodrow Wilson's League of Nations never gained effective traction and didn't grant itself authority to intervene militarily or economically. The U.S. didn't join the League even though its president, Woodrow Wilson, founded it. American opponents of the League weren't mere reactionaries; they made a solid isolationist case that membership over-committed the U.S. to intervene all over the world in conflicts that didn't really concern Americans.

In the case of Trump today, it's more likely the realisation of the military costs [and lives of Americans] and the complexity of world affairs that forced his decision. And it was a campaign promise to do matters differently than his predecessor Barack Obama. All Alone in the White House.

More to follow in a diary about Trump's decision to withdraw US troops from Syrian territory and a big drawdown in Afghanistan after 17 years of failures.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Dec 21st, 2018 at 10:31:15 AM EST
Brexit, the EU has a falling star  

Brexit more than just a gold star falling off a blue flag, Bono tells London gig

The singer stood in front of a huge EU-style flag with yellow stars and hailed London as "still a great European city". One star was not yellow but instead filled in with the Union flag and circled with a heart.

During the encore, Bono said: "We've just been touring all across Europe and whatever you think about it, all we heard about from Madrid to Berlin to Paris to Amsterdam is that people love the UK.

"They love you. And no-one wants you to leave. And that's just the truth. For us it's more than just a gold star falling off a blue flag."

Canary Wharf: life in the shadow of the towers

Brexit will hit the homeless and the poor harder than the upper 1%. London the financial center and home of the remainders.

Great Britain: The North - South divergence since the Brexit referendum

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Dec 21st, 2018 at 06:51:38 PM EST
Brexit: Is It Worth It?

"In 2016 an overwhelming majority in Ramsgate on the UK's southeast coast voted to leave the EU. Given the ongoing chaos, how do people in Brexit-heartland feel now?"

Brexiteers in Ramsgate: 'Just get on with it' | DW |

Threatening clouds over Ramsgate harbor gradually give way to a crisp blue sky as the coastal town in eastern Kent comes to life on a chilly winter's morning. Street sellers erect their market stalls and begin their trade of wares from bric-a-brac and shoes, to flowers and fruit. Vintage shops and record stores open their doors alongside pound shops and barbers on the quintessentially British high street that snakes down to the boat-stacked water's edge, with pubs and fish-and-chip shops lining the way.

Two-and-a-half years ago people here voted overwhelmingly in support of Brexit: Thanet constituency, which includes Ramsgate, voted to leave 46,047 to 26,065 -- a 64 percent majority based on a 73 percent turnout, one of the highest in the UK.

Immigration and job fears

It doesn't take long to find those who will proudly share they voted for Brexit, or to hit upon some common reasons why, often reminiscent of the mantras of the vociferous Leave campaign of 2016: immigration, jobs and border control.

"We get too many illegal immigrants, they take over everything. Why should they get our housing and services?" retiree Les Shewery asked rhetorically. Frustration with the perceived corruption of the EU institutions and a lack of British political clout to influence EU laws often boils over. "The EU's got 44,000 different legislation over things from straight bananas to stopping us digging out our rivers to prevent floods. It's just crazy. It's corrupt. Unelected people in power telling us what to do," Paul Dolton, a 52-year-old former soldier, told DW.

In a region hit hard by economic downturn over recent decades, austerity measures have tugged at the threads of the social fabric of such communities. The port, formerly Ramsgate's thriving economic center, sees very little trade. Levels of fishing are in decline,  jobs are few, low-paid and insecure, and affordable housing is hard to come by.

[...]
Thirty-year-old Lucy Monks, a remainer who works in a Ramsgate record store with her father, believes "leaving is kind of going backwards" but recognizes not everyone in the region feels the same. "There are a lot of UKIP-ers around here, we found that out when Nigel Farage came around. They all just came out the woodwork, if you will. As my dad says, there's a generation who are old-fashioned and have their bubble here they live in and don't want that disturbed. I think it's a fear of change really."

Bluntness on division in annual address by the Queen

Trump breaks protocol during Royal visit as he keeps Queen waiting 12 minutes and walks in front of her...causing her to shoo him out the way.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 08:42:46 AM EST
How this pack will help you prepare for a 'no deal' scenario | UK Gov |

Upholding the Belfast Agreement

The UK government is clear that in a 'no deal' scenario we must respect our unique relationship with Ireland, with whom we share a land border and are co-signatories to the Belfast Agreement.

The UK government has consistently placed upholding the Agreement and its successors at the heart of our approach.

It enshrines the consent principle on which Northern Ireland's constitutional status rests. We recognise the basis it has provided for the deep economic and social cooperation on the island of Ireland. This includes north-south cooperation between Northern Ireland and Ireland, which we're committed to protecting in line with the letter and spirit of Strand 2 of the Agreement.

The Irish Government has indicated it would need to discuss arrangements in the event of 'no deal' with the European Commission and EU member states. The UK would stand ready in this scenario to engage constructively to meet our commitments and act in the best interests of the people of Northern Ireland, recognising the very significant challenges that the lack of a UK-EU legal agreement would pose in this unique and highly sensitive context.

It remains, though, the responsibility of the UK government, as the sovereign government in Northern Ireland, to continue preparations for the full range of potential outcomes, including 'no deal'. As we do, and as decisions are made, we'll take full account of the unique circumstances of Northern Ireland.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 01:22:38 PM EST


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 01:31:57 PM EST
The EU is providing a means through which the UK won't immediately slide into disaster but they all require the UK to pass legislation giving EU firms the same access to the UK ... "No-Deal Brexit Light" -- as it were.

The trick here is May and her merry band of goofballs getting their collective act together to write and pass the necessary legislation.  Meaning they have to actually act with dispatch and competence.  Something she and they haven't demonstrated while she has been PM.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 06:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not really: I've read the document. It is guidance for EU27 members, not the UK.

The salient point on all sectors is, UK is a third-country, if the UK does not ratify the withdrawal agreement.

The fine points in all sectors are, the EC encourages UK firms to apply with the EU for individual licenses to trade.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 08:08:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So have I

A proposal for a Regulationv to ensure temporarily, for 12 months, the provision of certain air services between the United Kingdom and the EU27 Member States, allowing air carriers from the United Kingdom to fly across the territory of the Union without landing, make stops in the territory of the Union for non-traffic purposes, and perform scheduled and non-scheduled international passenger and cargo air transport services. This is subject to the United Kingdom conferring equivalent rights to air carriers from the Union, as well as to the United Kingdom ensuring conditions of fair competition.

<snip>

If the Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified, road haulage between the EU and the United Kingdom will be severely restricted and limited to an international system of limited quotas. The Commission has today adopted a measure to ensure basic connectivity. This will allow operators from the United Kingdom temporarily to carry goods into the Union, provided the United Kingdom confers equivalent rights to Union road haulage operators and subject to conditions ensuring fair competition



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Dec 25th, 2018 at 05:35:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's also a schweet kiss-off (buh-bye) to Gibraltar, specifically, to remind Gib gov, you had an opportunity to switch EU "sponsors" and you fucked it up.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 08:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More important to BorderIrish fans, EU is advising EU27 that EC will ignore NI-IE customs surveillance until 2020.
The Commission reiterates its commitment to ensuring that the current programmes between the border counties of Ireland and Northern Ireland continue in all scenarios, in view of the particular importance of regional cooperation in the area. To that end, the Commission has today adopted the following act:

✓ A proposal for a Regulation xiii to ensure the  continuation of the PEACE IV (Ireland-United Kingdom) and the United Kingdom-Ireland(Ireland-Northern Ireland-Scotland) programmes until the end of the 2020.

The Commission underlines the fact that for the next Multi-Annual Financial Frame work it has proposed to continue and to strengthen cross-border support for peace and reconciliation in the border counties of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

[emphasis in original] In the event UK gov does not ratify the withdrawal agreement, EU gov will by-pass UK gov. It will put UK gov intransigence in the hands of soon-to-be wildly agitated UK gov constituents ... with individual firm license to trade with firms in the bloc.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 08:34:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Enough time for Ireland and NI to have a unification vote.
by asdf on Wed Dec 26th, 2018 at 01:47:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What are the odds in favor of Arlene The Paisley cobbling a friends 'n' family import-export LTD, after someone translates EU "special zone" policy for her?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 08:41:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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