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After Brexit, Europe at a Crossroad

by Oui Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 02:31:03 PM EST

"It took 15 years for the UK to be admitted because the French saw it was the English intention to compromise that plan."

[Comment by oldremainmer48]

To be specific, it were French president Charles de Gaulle and Dutch FM Joseph Luns (1956-1971) who kept the British out. They envisioned the British as troublemakers for the European Economic Community. Joseph Luns became NATO SG from 1971-1984.

    With authority and a keen sense of humour, Luns chaired Council meetings rather informally compared to his predecessors. He called Ambassadors by their first name and put on slippers during lengthy Council discussions. However, Luns could become rather confrontational with those he felt were not supportive of the American view. High-minded yet visionary, he made it clear that staunch Atlanticism and a united Europe were complementary and expected others to get on board.

1967: De Gaulle pulls France out of NATO's integrated military structure

More below the fold ...


Now the US feels threatened by the economic might of the EU, tables are turned and the two have become adversaries. The Americans are aware of their new role to keep the empire of exceptionalism riding high. Europeans still do not realize the European community should prevail and open de window to Russia. With Brexit, a third union is a new dawn: North America with the UK - Europe - Russia/China.

In the previous Cold War with Communism and the dictatorship of the Soviet Union, the NATO battleground plan was confrontation on the northern plain in Germany. In US premonition of Cold War 2.0 with mini-nukes, it will be the same battleground to defeat the Russians in order to gain regime change.

NATO in it's new role to attack Russia in a scenario of Cold War 2.0 has undermined the goal of peace envisioned by the founders of the EEC.

The US as nuclear rogue state. Part I of II by Sirocco @EuroTrib on Aug. 2, 2005
Georgia: oil, neocons, cold war and our credibility by Jerome a Paris @EuroTrib on Aug. 9, 2008
Russia to Meet NATO Challenge, Nukes As Last Resort (Dec. 2014)

Further reading ...

The Pentagon Is Planning a Three-Front 'Long War' Against China and Russia

In 2006, when the Department of Defense spelled out its future security role, it saw only one overriding mission: its "Long War" against international terrorism. "With its allies and partners, the United States must be prepared to wage this war in many locations simultaneously and for some years to come," the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review explained that year.

Twelve years later, the Pentagon has officially announced that that long war is drawing to a close -- even though at least seven counterinsurgency conflicts still rage across the Greater Middle East and Africa -- and a new long war has begun, a permanent campaign to contain China and Russia in Eurasia.

"Great power competition, not terrorism, has emerged as the central challenge to U.S. security and prosperity," claimed Pentagon Comptroller David Norquist while releasing the Pentagon's $686 billion budget request in January. "It is increasingly apparent that China and Russia want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian values and, in the process, replace the free and open order that has enabled global security and prosperity since World War II."

Of course, just how committed President Trump is to the preservation of that "free and open order" remains questionable given his determination to scuttle international treaties and ignite a global trade war.

EU-NATO Alignment After Brexit | Carnegie Europe |
President Trump predicting the European Union could be on its last legs

John Bolton pushing Trump to withdraw from Russian nuclear arms treaty

Rex Tillerson reflects on firing, working for "undisciplined" Trump | CBS News |

UN Ambassador Nikky Haley's last BIG defeat:

UN to vote on Haley's last stand: Condemning Hamas | The Israel Times |
US fails to win enough support at UN to condemn Hamas

Concluding its work for the main part of its seventy-third session today, the Fourth Committee (Special Political and Decolonization) approved 12 draft texts, of which 9 relate to ...

Israeli practices in the occupied Arab territories and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

Display:
One thing to keep in mind when discussing US foreign policy: the majority of Americans aren't quite sure the EU exists as an independent entity with agency.  The second thing is: of those who do think the EU is an independent entity with agency the majority think the EU exists only to inhibit or prevent the US from doing what it wants to do anytime it wants to do it.

These tendenz have been quintupled under the IdiotStick-in-Chier.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 07:27:16 PM EST
"Chier" s/b "Chief"


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 07:27:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OUT: John Kelly Out as White House Chief of Staff, Trump Says
IN: TBD

OUT: Nikki "Taking names" Haley
IN: Trump nominates Heather Nauert to be next UN ambassador

OUT: acting AG Matthew G. Whitaker
IN:Trump Nominates William "War against Drugs" Barr as Attorney General

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 08:59:34 PM EST
As an additional preamble, when I say that the West has no more credibility than Russia on this conflict, it does not mean that Russia has any credibility, or that I love Putin, it means that the West has no credibility whatsoever; when I mock the West's claims about human rights and democracy, it does not mean that I think Russia is a defender of human rights and democracy, just that we have no credibility either on the topic.
Difficult to argue with that, although it has been said, half the population now enjoys improved lip-service to human "rights".

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 09:20:53 PM EST
I would not look for the US to make any particular special arrangements with the UK. From the trade perspective, the US will continue to be interested in the big EU market, not the (hopelessly bad) post-Brexit UK market.

Furthermore, President T. may think he can negotiate with individual European countries, but his trade envoys will not hold that opinion. The internal workings of the EU are of only peripheral interest to the US.

I would suggest that a likely scenario is that the EU-Russia relationship gradually softens, and the three 21st Century powers are EU+Russia, China+Southeast Asia, and USA+Canada+Mexico.

by asdf on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:04:13 PM EST
Russia and UK are of roughly similar economic size, so if the EU want to fill the economic hole left by the UK, Russia would be an obvious choice for closer economic links. The politics could be tricky though!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:10:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just look at Ukraine.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:35:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A trade pact, or even a customs union between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union could create a larger entity within which Russian/Ukrainian/European tensions could be contained... in theory!  Would really piss off US/UK bloc though...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 08:01:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Poland and Ukraine and the Baltics

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 08:04:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
never forget Poland

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 08:58:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"the US/UK bloc"

Ha.

by asdf on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 03:36:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just noticed you forgot to mention the UK, the self styled sixth largest economic power in the world! How would the USA/Canada/Mexico bloc manage without them?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 04:49:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I didn't mention India, either. Whose economy has at least a chance of improving, unlike the UK's.
by asdf on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would really piss off US/UK bloc though...

Many would consider that a feature, not a bug.

by rifek on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 02:31:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
.
EXIT BREXIT

with no strings attached.

UK can unilaterally revoke article 50, says EU court

Thank goodness the British Tories don't want to abide by rulings of the ECJ. :)

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 08:29:40 AM EST
Not quite
A spokeswoman for the court said that any revocation "must be decided following a democratic process in accordance with national constitutional requirements".
Any expert want to check what the English constitution has to say about that?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 08:59:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
<looks about for constitution, sees none, decides that in that case any fule can be an expert>

HM Gov't could take the decision unilaterally, but this particular HM Gov't doesn't have the kind of rock-solid majority in the Commons that would guarantee easy backing for the decision.

So we fall back on the hallowed convention that the House of Commons is sovereign. Ie, withdrawal of withdrawal would require a Commons vote.

A second referendum could satisfy the "democratic process" requirement, but would also require a Commons vote (as per the first referendum, established by Act of Parliament).

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 10:06:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Legal feeling is that PM has the authority to withdraw but it would be most prudent to pass an act telling him or her to do so.

Referendum is constitutionally irrelevant: purely a political thing.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 10:19:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Referendum is not a "democratic process"?

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 02:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not an advisory one.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 03:10:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why any fraud or breaches of election law can't invalidate the A50 process.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 03:12:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ok to consult the rubes when you think they will give you the answer you want anyway. What a twat that Cameron was...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 04:52:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A man or men from my heart ... solve the issues of last decades. Don't kick the can down the road leading to depravity of human values. Humans are by evolution primates with social behavior.

The traits that make human beings unique

Group led by Thomas Piketty presents plan for 'a fairer Europe'

A group of progressive Europeans led by the economist and author Thomas Piketty has drawn up a bold new blueprint for a fairer Europe to address the division, disenchantment, inequality and rightwing populism sweeping the continent.

The plan, crafted by more than 50 economists, historians and former politicians from half a dozen countries, includes huge levies on multinationals, millionaires and carbon emissions to generate funds to tackle the most urgent issues of the day, including poverty, migration, climate change and the EU's so-called democratic deficit.

Published as the British parliament is set for a climactic Brexit vote, the "manifesto for the democratisation of Europe" says EU institutions are stuck in "a technocratic impasse" that benefits the rich.

"Following Brexit and the election of anti-European governments at the head of several member countries, it is no longer possible to continue as before," says the document.

"We cannot simply wait for the next departures or further dismantling without making fundamental changes to present-day Europe."

The move underlines the gulf between the preoccupations of the UK and those across the Channel. While the UK is consumed by its tortuous EU exit process, Europe's pro-EU political forces are concerned with avoiding losses to anti-European populists in next May's European elections.

Our manifesto to save Europe from itself | The Guardian Opinion - Thomas Piketty |

Since the election of anti-European governments across the EU, and with Brexit looming, it is no longer possible to continue as before. We cannot simply wait for the next departures, or further dismantling without making fundamental changes to present-day Europe. Our continent is caught between political movements whose programme is confined to hunting down foreigners and refugees, on one hand, and on the other those who claim to be European but in reality continue to consider that hardcore liberalism and the spread of competition are enough to define a political project. They don't recognise that this lack of social ambition is what leads to feelings of abandonment.

Tackling climate change will require 'transforming the whole economy'
US joins Saudi Arabia, Russia to weaken climate change report

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 10:06:17 AM EST
One way or other, inequality is a part of the human sociality. Always useful when resources are tighter.
by das monde on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 01:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Inequality riots currently crashing the French economy. Sub-optimal.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 01:26:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the optimal way to mask a silently crashing economy?
by das monde on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 01:49:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Start a war.
by asdf on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 02:46:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a World War, though. Rather try riots, Brexit, dumb presidents
by das monde on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 08:50:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can't expect much from the meeting of Theresa May with Dutch PM Mark Rutte. His personal ambition is a job in Brussels ...

May in the Netherlands as she fights to save Brexit deal

We already knew Mark Rutte's judgement is clouded by the AngloSaxon alliance and propaganda. Just as his predecessors trying to be the best pupil of his class. Balkenende en De Hoop Scheffer support for the Iraq invasion and occupation under George Bush Jr. in March 2003. It's the ordinary people who carry the consequences and will suffer in the near future.

Dutch Investigation: Iraq Mission Ruled Illegal

    "George Bush Sr. led a long and rich life that from his days as a war hero was marked by great involvement with his country and the world. Deep respect for this wise former president of the United States."

Mark Rutte's friend lost the HQ battle to move Unilever to Rotterdam

Rutte was even willing to spend €2bn taxpayer's money to abolish the dividend tax for shareholders.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 10:04:53 AM EST
The Leavers will ultimately win ... PM May throwing a bone to the Commons ... vote can take place before January 21, 2019.

Brexit: Desperate May to meet with Merkel, but EU leaders warn no renegotiation of deal

    "It is the 330th anniversary of James II tossing the Great Seal into the Thames, without which he believed no Act of Parliament could be validated, an example of a British political leader under attack attempting to delay the inevitable by stalling the political process." [Source: Rev. Richard Coles]

Steve Baker, the ex-Brexit minister hell-bent on torpedoing May's Chequers plan

After the fiasco of David Cameron, Tory leader and PM Theresa May set red lines which blocked any reasonable deal with Europe.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 12:40:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit threatens Good Friday agreement, Irish PM warns | The Guardian - March 14, 2018 |

DUP leader Arlene Foster says scrap the backstop, the EU has guaranteed no hard border ...



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 01:16:51 PM EST
Let's be agreed. Tory gov 'threatens' the GFA.
The GFA is not dependent on the TEU. There is no logical reason not to honor the GFA before, during, or after BREXIT
beside Tory gov "intention" to "revoke" the GFA.

because malice.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 04:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit: How Charles de Gaulle was alwys right about Britain's EU membership

In her 2002 book Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World, the Iron Lady claimed the French general "did not particularly like Britain but he understood us quite well".

Speaking at a press conference in 1963, the French General said: "England is insular, maritime, linked through its trade, markets and food supply to very diverse and often very distant countries. Its activities are essentially industrial and commercial, and only slightly agricultural."

"In short, the nature, structure and economic context of England different profoundly from those of the other States of the Continent."

De Gaulle viewed the UK's membership of the EEC as potentially destabilising.

He added: "It is foreseeable that the cohesion of all its members, who would be very numerous and very diverse, would not hold for long and that in the end there would appear a colossal Atlantic Community under American dependence and leadership which would soon completely swallow up the European community."

Emphatic 'No' by de Gaulle | The Guardian - Nov. 1967 |

One could consider the US has positioned itself as the power broker in Europe in foreign policy, intelligence and security deals, military might through the Pentagon and NATO. The main cause of the upheaval in EU politics was successful through policy in the Middle East causing the flow of refugees thereby strengthening populism and the rightwing parties. Bush and the invasion/occupation of Iraq and the Obama years with regime change in Libya and Syria.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 09:36:13 PM EST


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