So Now What? (LQD)

by ATinNM Tue Feb 6th, 2018 at 06:00:27 PM EST

Trade barriers 'unavoidable' outside customs union, says EU's Barnier

The UK will face "unavoidable" barriers to trade if it leaves the customs union and single market, the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said.

Brexit Secretary David Davis response seems to me to be from Cloud La-La Land:

... the UK's position was "perfectly clear".
The UK, he argued, wanted a free trade deal with the EU but also the freedom to strike deals with other countries, where trade opportunities were growing.

Another step on the the road to a hard exit?

So Now What? (LQD) | 22 comments (22 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (none / 0)

And as Helen noted elsewhere, what about the Good Friday Agreement?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 6th, 2018 at 06:03:47 PM EST

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (4.00 / 2)

on that note

New Statesman - Stephen Bush - The Irish border question shows the government is living in a Brexit fantasy world

How do you solve a problem like the Irish border? It's the question that Brexiteers can't avoid tackling.
Bluntly, if you have divergence on goods, agriculture and many other regulatory areas you have to have some form of customs checks. And while those checks might largely be done via camera or - let's give the Brexiteers the benefit of the doubt - new technologies like drones or old ones like Zeppelins, the nature of customs checks is that you have to have customs officials who will have to go out and enforce those rules.
For all that those in Westminster talk about the conflict in Northern Ireland as a "finished" issue, there are still occasional acts of terrorist violence. On the border, signs are regularly defaced, and occasionally shot at. Whichever customs apparatus is put on the border, it will come under attack: whether from a drunken idiot throwing a brick or letting off a shot, or a deliberate attack. And so, at some point, will customs officials.
Then it's a question of what you do next.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Feb 11th, 2018 at 01:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (none / 1)

source: image free derry ireland

The border dividing Ireland will be abandoned by one of two methods.

(A) de jure: UK gov formal divestment of any and all claims to rule Northern Ireland.
(B) de facto: Irish inhabitants divest UK gov of any an all claims to Northern Ireland.
(i) by violent means;
(ii) by peaceful means;
(iii) or combination of the foregoing.

Uncertainty in "news" reporting about the feasibility of either method expresses to me only prejudices of the reporters, since quite a bit of it omits information about "North-South" inter-governmental cooperation to remedy current UK gov policy defects. In effect, UK gov has expressed no policy to enforce division of Irelan, much less opposition to unification of Ireland, as it had for centuries past.

Absent UK gov active and affirmative defense of its colonial possession AND priority of "free trade" with EU assigned by UK gov in order to avoid adverse income generation, de facto constitution of unified government of Ireland (B) is the most probable outcome of BREXIT proceedings, regardless of UK "deal" terms.

(B)(i) signifies prejudiced even atavistic reportage.
(B)(ii) signifies contemporaneous advocacy even political evolution.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Feb 11th, 2018 at 05:34:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (4.00 / 4)

The issue is quite complicated.

I'll try to bullet point it the various strands I see but I'm quite sure that Frank or Colman would conjure an entrely different list.

The conervative party have a considerable investment in Ulster remaining as an integral part of the United Kingdom. To them, letting it become even semi-detached woould be akin to losing an arm voluntarily.

The majority population of Ulster wish to remain as an integral part of the UK. We can discuss colonial politics as much as you like but those guys are Irish and staying there.

Due to the long standing air and ship building establishments in Ulster (now shut down) there have been strong links between par-military units in Ulster and the security services to protect Ulster's status wthin the UK. This is a very powerful voice to preserve the status quo within Westminster that cannot be ignored.

These same people are utterly opposed to any concept of becoming part of the Republic. The DUP's hatred of the EU is founded in part on the view that membership of the EU would gradually eradicate the difference between Ulster and the Republic.

Many in the Republic are very happy with their country and its independence from the UK. They would be generally hostile to the idea that Ulster Protestants unwillingly brouht into the Republic and generally acting more as agent's of the UK undermining the Republic rather than as fully committed Irish people working towards a better Europe.

Most of these are emotional and blood links of dependency and trust, and of emnity and distrust that are generations deep. Logic, law and political convenience mean nothing in this context.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Feb 11th, 2018 at 10:29:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Five "tribes" of Ulster, Belfast, and (none / 1)

parts not specified under examination.
Varadkar and May at Stormont for power-sharing talks 12 Feb

Change is going to come.

Ulster Unionist Party

Our vision is of Northern Ireland as the UK's Gateway to the EU
[...]
Northern Ireland due to receive almost €3.4 billion over the current EU budget period 2014-2020, with additional funds expected from centrally managed EU programmes. There is now a fear that this funding could be in jeopardy

because even an asshole knows who not to bite. So.
If you were Barnier-Varadkar-May combined, which gov will be 'patroling' the invisible customs border?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Feb 12th, 2018 at 04:44:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:the Five "tribes" (4.00 / 4)

Guardian - Polly Toynbee - The roadblock hard Brexiteers can't drive around: Ireland

But there is one great question: Ireland. The Brexiteers avoid mentioning it, because Ireland is their roadblock. The border is marked by memories of British bad faith that have been gradually healing over 20 years of peace. What a strange irony if Ireland ends up saving us all from ourselves. The border conundrum can only be resolved by forcing May to abandon her contradictory red lines - no customs union, no single market, no European court of justice - and no hard border.
[....]
The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, says: "No one has explained how the border commitments can be kept unless a customs union with the EU is on the negotiating table and the final deal delivers the benefits of the single market." Never mind the finessed language, watch that turn into a resounding Labour vote when the crunch comes, as Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke rally Tory rebels.
May dares not see off her ultra wing, but parliament looks set to do it for her. The anvil on which a soft Brexit is forged will be Ireland, because there is no other option. Despite history, it stands to be the United Kingdom's saviour.

I'm not sure I share Toynbee's certainty, I still think there is a chance of the brexiteers having "one last heave" and May deciding that it is more important to deliver brexit to the donors who matter (aka Murdoch and the Mail) than retaining the idea of the UK as a nation of treaties and laws. After all, becoming a libertarian dergulated tax haven is a lot easier if your country has demonstrated itself as above international law

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Feb 12th, 2018 at 06:28:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:the Five "tribes" (4.00 / 3)

The EU side is actually drawing a line (or calling the UK's vague statements, your choice):

EU issues Brexit ultimatum on Ireland - Politico

The EU will prepare a draft of the U.K. withdrawal treaty that envisions Northern Ireland remaining in the customs union -- essentially issuing an ultimatum that London come up with other options or accept that there is no other practical way to avoid the recreation of a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said Friday.
Speaking at a news conference alone, rather than alongside his U.K. counterpart, David Davis, Barnier insisted that the EU has no choice but to begin drafting such legal language because London has offered no clarity on how the Ireland-Brexit conundrum might be solved as part of an overall new relationship.
"It's important to tell the truth," Barnier said, suggesting that British officials have not been forthright about the implications of their public pronouncements. "A U.K. decision to leave the single market and leave the customs union would make border checks unavoidable."

by Bernard on Mon Feb 12th, 2018 at 07:33:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Five "tribes" of Ulster, Belfast (none / 1)

That was quick.
Varadkar and May say there is now a basis for a deal to reinstate power-sharing

Mrs May said the meetings with the five chieftains at Stormont had been "full and frank".
[...]
cultural matters to be embraced in three separate bills ... same sex legislation [TABLED] ... Arlene Foster must step aside [TABLED] ... Historical Investigations Unit to inquire into Troubles-related killing and a separate Independent Commission on Information Retrieval
[...]
If the deal is confirmed this week it could take towards the end of the month before the Executive and Assembly are reinstated as legislation to restore Stormont first must be passed at Westminster [!] which is in recess until Tuesday week, February 20th.

Alrighty then. Everything homey but ...
May says there is 'basis for an agreement' at Stormont

a comprehensive free-trade and customs arrangement involving Britain and Ireland, and said both governments have an agreement to work together at a sufficient level to explore how that can be achieved over the coming weeks and months.

The progress of parties concerned is conditional on good behavior amirite.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Feb 12th, 2018 at 08:35:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Five "tribes" of Ulster, Belfast (none / 1)

too little too late. I believe Barnier has just rendered the DUP's involvement in this process obslolete

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Feb 12th, 2018 at 08:55:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Five "tribes" of Ulster, Belfast (none / 0)

DUP is no concern of EU.

DUP is no concern of Tory gov. I said that last November after the Withdrawal/Repeal passing. DUP is replaceable.

NI gov requires domestication as does Tory gov. I shouldn't be surprised if Arlene keeps a Unionist, seven kinds of automatic rifle, ordinance and ammo under her bed. I shouldn't be surprised if the EU27 expects Davis to lie about his mother. The first step then for any "Irish" remainers and their craven Tory allies is to demo creditable "North-South-East-West" cooperation for EU dispensation.

Basic carrot.

You didn't answer my question: Who will be the likely invisible border patrol?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Feb 12th, 2018 at 10:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Five "tribes" of Ulster, Belfast (none / 1)

Here's how Independent.co.uk "front page" headlines cover Stormont meeting of the five tribes last week.

Northern Ireland talks latest: How did power-sharing at Stormont collapse and what would a new DUP-Sinn Fein deal look like?

Theresa May's visit to Northern Ireland described as `distraction' by Arlene Foster

because misery loves company, no?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Feb 14th, 2018 at 01:11:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Five "tribes" of Ulster, Belfast (none / 0)

A very complicated matter: Pretty sure I've seen this act a few times before.
DUP will not sign off on stand-alone Irish Language Act

In an interview with the Press Association, the DUP leader again insisted her party would not sign off on the stand-alone act - a key Sinn Féin demand throughout the 13-month impasse. She also ruled out any laws that would require bilingual [!!] road signs in Northern Ireland; compulsory teaching of Irish [!!!] in schools; or quotas [!*&!$!!] of Irish language speakers within the civil service.
[...]
"I am the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party so therefore I will be the person that's put forward by the party to be first minister," she said.

Famous last words.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Feb 14th, 2018 at 01:39:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Five "tribes" of Ulster, Belfast (none / 0)

I knew I'd seen that act somewhere before!
School-Segregation Effort in Alabama Reversed at 11th Circuit

So. Who rules Northern Ireland?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Feb 15th, 2018 at 08:36:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Five "tribes" of Ulster, Belfast (none / 1)

I very much regret the statement from the DUP. Power sharing and working together are the only way forward for Northern Ireland. The Tanaiste and the Secretary of State are in close contact and we will continue to confer with the British Government about the next steps.
— Leo Varadkar (@campaignforleo) February 14, 2018

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Feb 15th, 2018 at 10:39:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (4.00 / 4)

it is very hard for me to comment on the idiocies of the UK govt and refrain from rather robust language.

As many, even in the Tory party, are pointing out, the version of brexit being foisted on us is that required by the ultras. May is desperate to maintain a peace within the tory party, but it is being done at the expense of the country in general.

I think this is because the ultras don't actually care about the wealth of the nation. they are the total libertarian nutters who believe in "I'm all right jack" and feel no obligation whatsoever to anybody but themselves and their fellow 1%ers

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Feb 7th, 2018 at 09:00:18 PM EST

And Now This (none / 1)

Brexit: Transition period not 'a given', says Barnier"

Reading between the lines, Barnier is telling the UK to quit dicking around and Get Real.

The problem is May can't Get Real.

Prognosis: Hardest of hard exits

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Feb 9th, 2018 at 04:39:11 PM EST

Reading between the lines (none / 0)

Why would anyone rely on UK press to report EU position in A50 negotiations? Because UK press gaggle is a reliable source of true facts to be codified on or before 29 March 2019.

Position paper "Transitional Arrangements in the Withdrawal Agreement" 7 Feb 2018
in
Negotiating documents on Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Feb 9th, 2018 at 04:59:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Now This (none / 1)

Perhaps the Ultras will split among themselves regardless of what May does. At least we would be counting on stupidity to save the day. Seems like the best hope available.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Feb 9th, 2018 at 05:00:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (none / 0)

400 years later ... it's back.
London seeks to break Brexit deadlock over claims of devolution power-grab

The bill is currently being debated by the House of Lords and is likely to be substantially amended. The governments in Scotland and Wales have also threatened to oppose the Withdrawal Bill unless the May government makes concessions.
Creating the devolved governments was a policy of Tony Blair's Labour government in 1998, and there is a sense in the May government that no further powers should be transferred to the Scottish Nationalist-run administration in Edinburgh or Labour-controlled Wales.

NI? NI?? Not a kingdom. Yet.

"Agriculture and food production is a devolved issue in the UK, and they owe it to the governments of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland to ensure that they are fully in control of what comes back from Brussels because it's not in the withdrawal bill," Lord Rooker, a Labour former agriculture minister, told EURACTIV.
[...]
The administrations in Edinburgh and Cardiff have also issued separate demands for control of their own immigration policy.

It would appear "Special Enterprise Zones" for All in the UK is now a "thing", although neither the EU, um WTO, nor potential "future partnerships" of a bi-lateral persuasion have been consulted on the feasibility of such sovereignty reclaimed. Not oddly enough, multilateral political strategy is meant only to accelerate "devolution" of Tory gov through the brief window of opportunity known as "implementation period" toward unforeseen consequences.

'Tis a pity. I've no reason to expect EU giving up leverage for their privileges at. Do you?

archived
"DUP support for it was punked by May and some of them may be just beginning to fear their "Cameron veto"... " Nov 2017
"EU's workgroup will need all of 2018 and an army to comb out the nits in it. " Nov 2017
`Repeal bill' passes hurdle in reprieve for British PM May - ROLL CALL - Index of Bills Sep 2017

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Feb 12th, 2018 at 06:11:39 PM EST

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (none / 0)

Taoiseach says Government 'confident there will be no border with North post Brexit'

Mr Varadkar confirmed the government has been asked to help the UK in shaping a final deal between Britain and the EU.
"We have been asked by the British authorities to work with them at official levels on how that might be achieved, but of course all negotiations will have to be done through the Barnier task force."

Bad timing

"If they decide they want to leave the customs union and not replace it with something similar, if they decide they want to leave the single market and not replace it with something similar or close to that then it is inevitable that there will be checks between Ireland and Britain," said Mr Varadkar.
"But, it is in that scenario where we trigger the backstop and what is there from the joint report in December, which is not just for the transition but on an ongoing basis, a special unique arrangement for Northern Ireland which contains full alignment and that is what we are seeking to be written in to the legal text of the withdrawal agreement."

"Unique" like Scotland, Wales, and Gibraltar? This idea -a tax-free, duty-free, WTO-free EU trade union unlike the EEA-- is so diabolical, it just might confuse Arlene and Sammy!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Feb 15th, 2018 at 12:51:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (none / 0)

Direct rule?

< wipes tears >

leverage

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Feb 15th, 2018 at 09:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So Now What? (LQD) (none / 1)

How long can May continue flipping and flopping like a fish dying on a riverbank?
Are Ladbroke's offering odds on the length of how much time she has left?
Barnier has cut her some slack before, but I think the last ace of her silent appeal to pity (for her government crumbling as she prattles opaque banalities) has been played.
From now on its hardball, the time of cringe tragicomedy is passing away fast, now a much less sentimental future awaits our brave brexiteers as they set out over the briny deeps in their leaky little coracle of delusional nostalgia.
Doing and dying, it's resembling the magnificent indifference to reality of a second Charge of the Light Brigade.
Such courage, such bravery, such honour as they founder so haplessly.
Sic gloria transit mundi.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Feb 17th, 2018 at 01:38:51 AM EST

So Now What? (LQD) | 22 comments (22 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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