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Geopolitics Oil & Gas: As US Sanctions on Iran Kick In

by Oui Mon Jun 18th, 2018 at 11:01:16 AM EST

More below the fold ...


Oil and gas geopolitics: no shelter from the storm

Societe Generale has forecast that US sanctions might remove as much as 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude from the global market.

And that leads us to the real big story for the foreseeable future, as Asia Times cross-referenced analyses from Persian Gulf traders with diplomats in the European Union; beyond technical issues, the point is how oil and energy markets are hostage to geopolitical pressure.

The US is in a relatively comfortable position. US oil production has reached 10.7 million barrels per day - enough for domestic needs. And shale oil production is expected to rise to a record 7.18 million barrels a day next month, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Permian basin oil production to more than double from 2017 - 2023

Oil production in the Permian Basin, already a major force in global supply growth, will rise nearly 3 million bpd by 2023 - a level of growth exceeding most recent estimates, a new outlook by business information provider IHS Markit says. What the report describes as a "stunning" level of growth will comprise more than 60% of net global production growth during that timeframe.

Total oil production in the Permian will be 5.4 million bpd in 2023, more than the total production of any OPEC country other than Saudi Arabia. Nearly 41 000 new wells and US$308 billion in upstream spending between 2018 - 2023 will drive that growth.

Production of both natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Permian are also expected to double during this period, reaching 15 billion ft3/d and 1.7 million bpd, respectively.

Can the U.S. break Russia's gas monopoly In Europe?
Russia's Gazprom to terminate gas contracts with Ukraine

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China's Tariffs on U.S. Oil Would Disrupt $1 Billion Monthly Business
China said Friday it would retaliate by slapping duties on several American commodities, including oil.
[...]
Following a year and a half of voluntary supply cuts led by the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as the non-OPEC [SWING] producer Russia, oil markets have tightened, pushing up prices.

The CA Cohort of Petty Landlords had difficulty understanding KSA glut to defend market share, driving US producers from market, much less subsequent supply restraint to re-set price floor. Maybe they'll have a quicker grasp the "fundamentals" of market-making this time around.
The potential drop-off in American oil exports to China would benefit other producers, especially from OPEC and Russia.

The OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and Russia indicated on Friday they would loosen their supply restraint and were starting to raise exports.

A cut in Chinese purchases of U.S. oil may [?!!] also benefit Iran's sales, which Washington is trying to curb with new sanctions it announced in May.

"The Chinese may [?!!] just replace some of the American oil with Iranian crude," said John Driscoll, director of consultancy JTD Energy Services.

Times of Israel | Iran-China Relations

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Jun 18th, 2018 at 01:32:33 PM EST


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