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PM May @BBC: My Deal or No Deal

by Oui Mon Sep 17th, 2018 at 06:31:24 PM EST

[Update-1] My follow-up diary: Perfect Storm - May's Humiliation @SalzburgEU.

Impersonating the Iron Lady ...

Inside No 10: Deal or No Deal? | BBC Panorama |

The Brexit deadline is looming - just weeks left to get a deal, just months until the country is due to leave the European Union. The stakes are high for Britain, and at the centre of it all is the prime minister. Theresa May has to strike a deal with the EU and convince the public and MPs that her plan is the best plan. The only alternative, the government say, is no deal at all. But many disagree - and her own party, the opposition and the country are divided. So what does the prime minister's plan really mean, and what else could we do?

At a crucial time for the country, Panorama has been inside Downing Street with Theresa May as she seeks to navigate Britain's negotiations with the EU.

Below is how foreign media covered PM May's interview ...

Coverage by foreign media ...

'Support my Brexit deal or face no deal', says UK's May | France24 |
British PM Theresa May @BBC: "My Chequers deal or no deal"
IMF warns about Brexit with no deal - May continues to fight for her plan | Handelsblatt |

No-deal Brexit threatens to set UK back 10 years, warns Philip Hammond | The Independent |

Philip Hammond has warned that a no-deal Brexit threatens to set Britain back 10 years, in his starkest warning yet about the damage to the economy.

Embarrassingly for Theresa May, the comments came after she claimed "our best days are ahead of us" - even while insisting that crashing out of the EU without an agreement remains an option.

But the Chancellor said that striking a deal was essential to "lock in the economic progress that we have made" repairing the economy since the great crash a decade ago.

Under the EU plan, goods could be tracked using barcodes on shipping containers under "trusted-trader" schemes administered by registered companies, the Times reported.

Reuters reported on Sept. 12 that EU officials were working on a sensitive Irish protocol to the draft Brexit treaty with Britain, as part of what Barnier has called efforts to "de-dramatise" the issue and get a deal.

"De-dramatise" is the buzz word in Irish press. I think it means, Tory gov has no intention to co-operate with EU gov in its own withdrawal from the EU market.

The term denotes a raft of affronts by EU gov officials to Tory gov's concept of a border per se. At the moment, EU negotiators' plan is to persuade UK customs inspectors even to "check" the origin and destination of goods landed at the Big Island's ports (air, sea) for tariff remit. IF Tory gov will commit to customs surveillance, EU gov will reconsider joint supervision at Big Island ports.

Bar code labels and scans: High Tech Manifests

MEP Dianne Dodds UK, DUP) was heard to say,

"Suggestions that the EU is now considering technology-based solutions are a positive if belated development ... However, this will become null and void if based only on the EU goal of ensuring Northern Ireland remains in a common regulatory and customs areas inside the EU.

"Equally we are unconvinced by arguments which suggest that a technological border in the Irish Sea is more deliverable than on the land border between Northern Ireland [UK] and the Irish Republic [EU]."

geographical indications

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Sep 18th, 2018 at 12:48:42 AM EST
If you think you understand the UK govt's proposals for a transparent or effortless border in Ireland, you're doing a lot better than most of u. Cos it looks like gibberish to me.

Nothing resembling their scheme has ever been demonstrated anywhere and the normal time for the govt to implment some sort of IT scheme is 5 - 6 years and they all go over-budget and then fail catastrophically.

TBH it looks like an idea some clueless spad had when they went to the supermarket and were amazed at the technology on the checkout, believing it was a magic solution to all their problems so long as Harry Potter could just be persuauded to wave his wand in the right way.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 18th, 2018 at 04:07:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL. Hey, I had to read a lot of press reports to arrive at the conclusion I did! Tory gov has no proposal. Tory gov has objections to every EU "backstop" drafted since December.

EU is bent over backward on this "trust" problem. Look closer at the so-called solution. EU is offering the tech and that involved applying one label per TEU (container).

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 06:41:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The barcode on a container solution works ok provided no one changes what's inside the container! Presumably the barcode would be linked to a database containing an inventory of what's inside the container. Few companies have the systems in place to generate an inventory per container load - most invoices contain orders for one customer which can be but a small part of a container load or indeed consist of many container loads.

But you often don't know how many containers or what proportion of a container is required to load the goods until you actually start loading them. At best someone might guess what goods have ended up in what container, but if a customs official opens up a container and checks contents against inventory who is to say any discrepancies aren't balanced out by the contents of other containers?

What is the difference between customs fraud and merely having put some goods in a different than expected container - something handled on the shop floor by fork lift drivers without access to any logistical database... Very few companies have logistical systems capable of handling container level inventories - Tesco, Guinness, some big pharma companies perhaps. It works for very high volume single product shipments, or container loads all destined for the one customer.

But don't expect your average small company operating across the border to implement such systems. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 11:52:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The barcode on a container solution works ok provided no one changes what's inside the container!

yeah, That's the main joke. It writes many hilarious follow on jokes.

One of them is, EU agreeing to a Tory gov "honor system".

Another is, the impossible operating system needed to track goods by RFID or passive bar codes. You know, I worked at AMZN for two years. Inventory control and quality assurance, in fact. I scanned hundreds of units every hour that crossed BORDERS.

These are a few realities behind my remark, EU is bent over backward ... to encourage Tory gov crazy to sign a pro forma "deal" that obviates physical inspection of goods traded between UK and EU merchants.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 03:48:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Particularly funny when it comes from Britain, a nation of self-checkout thieves.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 04:24:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The containerized cargo isn't really an issue - containers are numbered and sealed with tamper-resistant seals, people are already supposed to declare what goes in them, and there are ways to do randomized customs checks that presumably address these concerns. And customs enforcement of containerized cargo is anyway based on an honor system supplemented with spot audits.

Which means you can have a more or less frictionless border... but only if you make it in the seaport or railhead. As soon as you move the border out of the well-defined, fenced-in logistics hubs, you lose the ability to track consignments by tracking the containers and cross-referencing consignee data against shipper data, and then the whole thing breaks down.

You can have a land border, or you can have a frictionless border. Pick one.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Sep 22nd, 2018 at 01:52:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Link to first quote?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 12:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oui's articles. Didn't you read them?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 03:49:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Irish May Face EU Tax Pressure in Return for Brexit Support
Fresh EU DOOM porn
While no explicit link has yet been made between Ireland's resistance to a digital tax and the EU's efforts to avoid a hard border after Brexit, solidarity doesn't come for free, according to the European official, who asked not to be identified because they aren't authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

The official's comments are the first sign that at least some nations expect a price to be extracted for the bloc's commitments to Ireland in the Brexit process.

Try to look surprised
nadie es libre

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Sep 18th, 2018 at 01:24:33 AM EST
From the Financial Times earlier this year ... says it all as there has been very little progress. Theresa May treads a corridor carrying her Chequers Plan looking for the exit to Brexit ... she has antagonized all parties in the negotiation and has to stick the her single proposal. This is not even a gamble but a fool's journey to disaster.

Theresa May's fragile Brexit truce is unlikely to last for long | FT - March 2018 |

After months of obfuscation, the British government has come up with a vision for Brexit. Theresa May's government has decided on its preferred "end state" with the EU -- the longer-term relationship for once the UK has formally left the bloc and the transition phase is over. EU negotiators have long complained they do not know what Britain wants. Now they have an answer: a Canada-style trade deal with "managed divergence" in some areas.

Image credit: FT

By attempting to separate the British economy into sectors where regulations would remain the same, those where it desires some latitude for change and those where it wishes to diverge entirely, the government appears to have gone cherry-picking. Yet this is precisely what the EU27 has consistently said cannot be allowed after a country leaves the bloc. The three-baskets approach would also be the first ever trade deal designed to achieve divergence.

EU is launching a "veiled power grab" on Irish corporate tax revenue ... a trade-off in Brexit negotiations?

Apple pays over the €14.3bn due to Ireland - but the minister again denies that it's owed
Barnier adopts conciliatory tone over Ireland | FT - July 20, 2018 |

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 10:33:10 AM EST
It is now completely evident the UK is run by sociopaths who will lie, cheat, steal and manipulate others for their own benefit and psychopaths whose thought and emotions are so impaired that contact is lost with external reality.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 04:16:27 PM EST
UK plans for trade and Irish border need to be reworked, says Tusk | The Guardian |

Donald Tusk has said that Theresa May's Chequers proposals for dealing with the Irish border and future trade relations after Brexit will need to be "reworked and further negotiated" in a sign of how far the UK and EU are from resolving the most fraught issues in the divorce talks.

Opening the EU summit in Salzburg, Tusk, the European council president, said the Brexit talks were entering a decisive phase and that "various scenarios" were still possible - a clear hint that no-deal remained a possibility if no acceptable resolution to the negotiations could be reached.

...  in a blow to the British prime minister the EU leader said that was not the case "on other issues, such as the Irish question, or the framework for economic co-operation, where the UK proposals will need to be reworked and further negotiated".

Tusk confirmed there would be a special European summit in November, which is intended to be when Brexit negotiations end, and tried to add a note of urgency in conclusion, saying: "There is more hope but there is surely less and less time, every day left we must use for talks."

At the Salzburg summit May will reject the revised Irish backstop border proposals of Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, because the EU is still insisting on customs checks in the Irish Sea if the two sides cannot strike a free trade agreement after Brexit.

In Salzburg, the prime minister will also hold bilateral meetings on Thursday with the Tusk, and the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, as she seeks to end the impasse over the future of the UK's only land border.

'Both sides need to compromise' on Brexit, says EU summit host- Politics live

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 09:00:11 PM EST
May locked in between a hard rock and granite ...

    "If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing
    with the European Union instead of dealing with
    the U.K., so it will probably kill the deal."

                                    President Donald Trump

Trump: soft Brexit will 'kill' UK's chances of US trade deal  

Absent leadership - Theresa May in the political squeeze:
"A lady is not for turning ..."

Donald Trump holds hands with Theresa May in awkward public display of affection

Blah, blah, blah ...

Trump suggests US and UK could strike a 'tremendous deal' on trade after Brexit | CNBC - July 15, 2018  |

With Brexit negotiations having hit rough shoals, May is under pressure to deliver on the 2016 vote to extricate the U.K. from the 28-member economic bloc.

"We would make a tremendously big deal" with Britain, Trump said in the interview, published by the Daily Mail, apparently trying to smooth over a firestorm created ahead of his visit.

"Oh I think we're going to have a great trade deal, I've really no doubt about it," Trump said in the interview. "We're going to get it. I said [to Theresa May], "Make sure you have a carve out, you have to have a carve out" - where no matter what happens they have the right to make a deal with the United States."

Barack Obama: As your friend, let me say that the EU makes Britain even greater | The Telegraph - Apr. 23, 2016 |

Nearly 80 years later, the United Kingdom remains a friend and ally to the United States like no other. Our special relationship was forged as we spilt blood together on the battlefield. It was fortified as we built and sustained the architecture for advancing stability and prosperity in Europe, and our democratic values around the globe. From the ashes of war, those who came before us had the foresight to create the international institutions and initiatives to sustain a prosperous peace: the United Nations and NATO; Bretton Woods, the Marshall Plan, and the European Union. Their efforts provided a foundation for democracy, open markets, and the rule of law, while underwriting more than seven decades of relative peace and prosperity in Europe.

Obama officials 'mocked Britain in secret and treated "special relationship" as a joke' | The Independent |
Donald Trump returns Winston Churchill's bust to the Oval Office

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Sep 20th, 2018 at 01:17:57 PM EST
Macron says May's Chequers Brexit blueprint 'not acceptable' | France24 |

French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said British Prime Minister's so-called Chequers plan for Brexit was not acceptable following two days of EU talks in the Austrian city of Salzburg.

While noting that the Chequers plan was "a good and brave step" by Britain's May, the French president stressed that the blueprint was not a "take it or leave it" plan and that the bloc would "never accept a deal which would damage the EU and its integrity".

Addressing a press conference after the bloc's 27 leaders met -- without May -- Macron said, "We are today at the hour of truth" and that the bloc expected "new British proposals in October".  

EU Tusk statement: Theresa May's Brexit plan 'will not work' in devastating blow to PM

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Sep 20th, 2018 at 05:43:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know how it was reported elsewhere but the BB might as well have been at a state funeral. They were all but playing solemn music as they reported on how comprehensively May's proposals were rejected.

The gap over Ulster is just too great, everything else can be finessed but Ireland requires a hard solution.

She did look kinda shell-shocked actually. After months of tough negotiations with Jacob Rees-Mogg to create a set of proposals that avoid destroying the Tory party, she seemed genuinely surprised that she wasn't being applauded to the rafters in Salzburg for her clever proposals. It's almost as if it never occured to her that the EU had a viewpoint that needed to be considered.

It's not long until the Tory party conference and, given this debacle, I'd be shocked if there weren't stand up fights in the auditorium, resignations and a, metaphorical or otherwise, stabbing or two backstage.

And there's already talk of a General Election being called.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Sep 20th, 2018 at 08:51:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
< wipes tears >
schedule a holiday out of town the day of.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 20th, 2018 at 09:20:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
May can't get it through her head that while it is the most important thing to her the EU doesn't give a damn about the Tory Party.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 04:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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