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Perfect Storm - May's Humiliation @SalzburgEU

by Oui Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 05:50:40 AM EST

Frank’s excellent front page story how May’s breakfast in Salzburg was a primary stumbling block …

The Guardian puts the boot in

No sugarcoating from her (former) 27 EU colleagues. Time has run out. To save her party, May's destroying Great Britain and looking into the abyss ...

The Papers

More below the fold ...


Theresa May in denial after her Salzburg ordeal | The Guardian Opinion |

If it hadn't all been so numbingly inevitable, it might have been possible to feel sorry for Theresa May. Back in the UK, both remainers and leavers had pronounced her Chequers' proposals to be dead in the water, but the prime minister had still travelled to the informal EU summit in Salzburg hoping for a stay of execution. A few luke-warm words and some insincere air kisses at the very least, until after she had survived the Conservative party conference. Her current range of vision really is that limited.

Instead she got a lesson in plain-speaking brutality. No attempts to sugar the pill, as EU leader after leader took it in turns to dismiss Chequers and to mock the UK over its lack of progress in its Brexit preparations. Even the Dutch thought they were better prepared for a no-deal Brexit than us.

...
Moments after being given the bad news in person, May had to face the UK media. The room in which the press conference was held was small and airless, but the prime minister was already sweaty when she walked in. More than that, she looked angry and terrified. Alone and out of her depth, her eyes darting across the room, searching for one friendly face. There wasn't one. There hadn't been one in the two days she had been in Austria.

Theresa May's Salzburg humiliation confirms that a full blown political crisis is coming | The Independent |

Theresa May's problem is that she is fundamentally a decent, functional human being. She is not struck down with the Messiah complex. She does not lie easily or well.

So when she stands on stage at a press conference, her teeth gnashing, her eyes wide and wild, as if everything has gone utterly terribly wrong and she hasn't got the first clue what she is going to do about it, then you can be absolutely sure it's because everything has indeed gone utterly terribly wrong, and she hasn't got the first clue what she is going to do about it.

She had been humiliated, and then she was forced to humiliate herself. She had thought this informal summit of EU leaders in Salzburg would be the final breakthrough on an exit deal from the European Union.

Theresa Might's Salzburg humiliation confirms a full blown political disaster is coming

That white paper is the one which set out how a frictionless border might be maintained on the island of Eire, without Northern Eire remaining within the customs union. She had gone to Salzburg on this recommendation, the place she came upon, within the full glare of the general public, highlighted in the end her predicament.

It was unnervingly near a full-on public meltdown. It was, at moments, Kafkaesque.

It is the EU's turn to compromise on Brexit, says Dominic Raab | The Guardian - 2 days ago |

So anything Theresa May and Dominic Raab learn today? The EU nations are more united than before the Brexit referendum and the British from the outset were a distant second as a working negotiating team. With taking full responsibility herself, PM May will face the music at the coming Conservative Party Conference. What has she to show for her effort?

Brexit Negotiations Ending In Divorce Talks
Kabuki Theatre: Theresa May Takes Control DExEU – July 2018
Reflections on a shambolic conference for the Conservatives (2017)

Related reading …

Barnier Reply: Dismisses Chequers White Paper by Oui @EuroTrib on July 20, 2018
Selling the City of London to Europe by Oui @EuroTrib on July 10, 2018
A Perfect Storm by Frank Schnittger on June 1, 2018

See my earlier diaries …

Brexit Negotiations Ending In Divorce Talks – Sept. 12, 2018
May Concedes Negotiation Task – Aug. 22, 2018

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It was, at moments, Kafkaesque.

I was having images of May as a large beetle, but then I checked the original article

It was unnervingly near a full-on public meltdown. It was, at moments, Keeganesque.
Was the change yours or spell checker's?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 06:25:02 AM EST
I had second thoughts on this article as I developed the diary. Source is UK PressIt and the grammar was much to be desired. So I had moved the link lower in order of my diary. The last part makes an analogy to football Middlesbrough and at first I figured Keeganesque was a misspelling. I shortened the quotation. I probably didn't get the gist of it.

The full story of Kevin Keegan's "I will love it" rant

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 07:02:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least Keegan was once an outstanding footballer. The present Tory Bunch, not so much - at anything...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 10:55:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 08:15:37 AM EST
Link to article ...

Donald Tusk posts a picture with Theresa May captioned with a sly putdown about Brexit cherry-picking

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 08:18:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some people need to lighten up. In private many leaders have a good sense of humour and warm personal relationships with each other. But politics is also a game, and you have to know how to play it. Sometimes pictures tell it better than words...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 11:02:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It was only one hundred years ago ...

War Capitalism

Recently came across this article ...

#RiseAndGrind culture

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 11:59:28 AM EST
 

Many nations do want a rightwing government in the UK ...

Israel
Hungary Horrible! On the couch with Sophie Shevardnadze
US Grand Old Party

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 02:04:43 PM EST
After May's humiliation, Labour must seize the initiative on Brexit | The Guardian Opinion |

This should be a moment of opportunity for Labour and the wider left. The Tories' Brexit agenda was never about restoring sovereignty to ordinary people - its purpose is to deregulate the British economy and bring us more in line with the American mode, permanently shifting the balance of power in society. By deploying a narrative about the economic crisis that blamed immigration falling living standards, the Brexit project aimed, via the means of a popular vote, to be on the winning side of history.

From an earlier diary ...

    Every disadvantage has its advantage or new opportunities, ...

    A lot to consume in this strong editorial, it's the underlying decade long development of the Eastern Bloc that has caused the erosion of Western - or Old Europe's principles of the Common Market of the Six. I do put much of the blame in the aggression of NATO to move its frontier eastward and with the Afghan War at the behest of the United States, into a global expeditionary force for regime change wherever. The main culprits are the U.S. under Clinton - Bush - Obama and the U.K. regimes of Tony Blair - Gordon Brown - David Cameron.

A Global Britain without Brussels and ECJ

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 05:56:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Theresa May's 'tough and uncompromising' approach got her Chequers Brexit plan rejected, says EU | The Independent |

The president of the European Council has hit back at Theresa May after the Prime Minister kicked-off over the rejection of her Chequers Brexit plan and demanded more "respect" in talks.

In a statement released on Friday evening Donald Tusk blamed in part Ms May's conduct for the rejection of her proposals, warning that EU leaders had responded to a "tough and in fact uncompromising" stance by the PM by hardening their own position in the run-up to a key summit in Salzburg.

He argued that the British government had known the EU was going to reject the proposals "in every detail" for weeks because the two sides has been in contact.

...
"The UK stance presented just before and during the Salzburg meeting was surprisingly tough and in fact uncompromising," he said.

"The response of the EU27 leaders was to reiterate our trust in chief negotiator Michel Barnier and to reiterate our position on the integrity of the Single Market and the Irish backstop."

Ms May had written a defiant article in a German newspaper and gave a tough-talking speech to leaders over dinner in the summit which appeared to rub some member states the wrong way.

Theresa May fordert Entgegenkommen der EU | Der Spiegel |

Gastbeitrag Theresa May - Die Welt:

Keine Seite kann von der anderen völlig Inakzeptables verlangen

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 06:59:38 PM EST


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 10:17:53 AM EST
Has this topic already been covered extensively here @EuroTrib?

Guide to the Brexit Negotiations | EU Law Analysis |

The guidelines do not refer to any possible withdrawal of the UK notification, although the EP resolution (point L) assumes that a withdrawal of the notification is possible with consent. There is also an argument that the time period for withdrawal in Article 50 could be extended indefinitely. I will return to this issue another time.

Some have speculated that the EP might insist that the UK hold a referendum result on the outcome of the talks, as a condition for its consent to the deal. This would almost certainly backfire spectacularly, and in any event the draft EP resolution does not address this.

European integration has brought peace and prosperity to Europe and allowed for an unprecedented level and scope of cooperation on matters of common interest in a rapidly changing world. Therefore, the Union's overall objective in these negotiations will be to preserve its interests, those of its Member States, its citizens and its businesses.

'It's not you, it's me': Article 50 and the future EU-UK relationship

On 14 May 2017, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis was interviewed on `Peston on Sunday' and the topic was, unsurprisingly, Brexit. The contentious issues of the sequencing of the negotiations according to the Council's Guidelines for withdrawal arose. As is now known, the Chief Negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier, has insisted that the issues of EU citizenship rights, the UK's financial liabilities and the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are resolved before any discussion of the future trade relationship with the UK can proceed. This position was further affirmed in the Negotiating Directives issued by the Council on 22 May 2017 which deal exclusively with the negotiating priorities of the Withdrawal Agreement. The goal of this contribution is to point out that the plain language of Article 50 does not in fact envision the necessity of a future, separate agreement to deal with the future relationship between the EU and the UK, contrary to much debate both at UK and EU level.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 06:03:21 PM EST
I have replied to the law blog you linked to via twitter as follows:
The phrase "clutching at straws" comes to mind. Whatever way you look at it, the insertion of a simple clause or sub clause in A.50 providing for the revocation of an A.50 notification in certain circumstances would have made this whole question absolutely clear. The absence of such a clause is therefor damning. Clearly there was no intention to create such a "right" by the framers of, and parties to, the Treaty. You are asking the ECJ to create a "right" where patently none is provided for in the Treaty.

You must also take the separation of powers between the ECJ and the European Council and Parliament into account. The latter two institutions are charged with the political running of the EU. Clearly they could, at their absolute discretion, decide to accept a request for the revocation of an A.50 notification as a political act. However making a political decision to accept or reject such a revocation, and granting an absolute right to a withdrawing member to unilaterally withdraw their notice of leaving are two very different things. You are asking the ECJ to impose constraints on their powers and freedom of action which are nowhere alluded to in the Treaties.

There are also practical issues to consider. What is to prevent any member, dissatisfied on any matter, to issue A.50 notifications willy nilly only to withdraw them at the last moment if they manage to gain some negotiating leverage by doing so. The EU would be in ongoing turmoil, not knowing which notifications are for real, and which were purely tactical. Political decisions are best left to the political institutions, and the ECJ would be reluctant to intervene unless some action is clearly in breach of the Treaties. The Council and Parliament have wide discretion within the Treaties to make political decisions, and that is as it should be. The rights of any one member state are not absolute, but exist only insofar as they are provided for in those treaties.

The more interesting question is whether the Council can accept a revocation by weighted majority vote, or whether unanimity would be required. A. 50 does make provision for the extension of the 2 year notice period under A.50, but only by unanimous agreement. As a revocation most closely resembles an indefinite extension, meaning the notice party never leaves, it seems reasonable to assume a revocation would also require unanimity. That would make any decision to remain subject to the whims of each and every one of the remaining 27 member states -j ust as it takes only one member to block the accession of a new member under A.49.

The alternative point of view is that as an Exit Agreement only requires a weighted majority to be accepted by the Council, so should a decision not to conclude one and instead terminate the exit process also only require a weighted majority vote? It is a pity the ECJ is not being asked to adjudicate on this issue.The bottom line depends on whether the EU and UK continue to be on good terms as the A.50 process nears its end and the UK decides it wants to remain in after all. If relationships have become very strained there is always a possibility that a blocking minority might object to accepting a withdrawal of an A.50 notification. That too is as it should be. Membership of a club should be dependent on the willingness of all parties to work constructively together and to accept obligations as well as entitlements.

The UK has not always demonstrated a willingness to do so over the past 45 years of membership. It would be ironic indeed if it was the EU which ultimately decided it no longer wished to have the UK as a member and blocked attempts to terminate the A.50 process. Most Council members have expressed a willingness and indeed an eagerness to welcome the UK to remain in the EU should the UK change its mind so this seems a very unlikely prospect. However the invocation of A.50 should not be a cost or risk free action, and the possibility that some other members would be more than happy to see the UK or some other "difficult" member exit should not be entirely discounted. Other members have rights too, and the ECJ most take cognizance of their rights as well.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 08:52:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1. EU Council "Negotiating Directives issued by the Council on 22 May 2017" has been scrubbed.
See body of European Commission receives mandate to begin negotiations with the UK (22 May 2017)

2. Garner's full legal analysis, question put to ECJ review, "syllabus" (premises of argument), and case law citations. I note with interest, as I indicated before, the subjects in dispute are ultimately (separation of powers) in the UK legislature in accordance with the "constitutional requirements of the Member State"(A50);

The purpose of the reference is to clarify for Members of Parliament whether it would be a legally valid option under Section 13 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act* to withhold a resolution approving any negotiated withdrawal agreement, or lack thereof, and instead vote to revoke notification under Article 50(2).
* a/k/a in the UK "the Withdrawal Bill," "the Repeal Bill," or "the Withdrawal Act"

and the so-called second limb of ECJ review, namely the authority of the ECJ to judge an event which has not occurred --a statute prescribing revocation, unilateral revocation of A50-- evoked by a "Member of State" (devolved gov of Sc'land). This "limb" too contemplates separation of powers (exec, judicial, legislative) in EU gov --ECJ interpretation of statute that does not exist, a judgement, as force of law (exec and leg authority).

On 8 June 2018 the Lord Ordinary at first instance refused the petition upon three grounds: (1) the issue was hypothetical as the United Kingdom government had stated that they did not intend to revoke notification; (2) the matter was outside the Court's jurisdiction as it encroached upon Parliamentary Sovereignty; and (3) the conditions for a referral under EU law had not been met as the facts were not ascertainable and the issue was hypothetical.
Garner goes on to sketch alternative legal strategies for the petitioners of which, I note with interest, appeal to articles of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT).

All in all, I stand by my prediction.

Great pick, Oui.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 09:20:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What options are left for Brexit negotiations in Brussels with Barnier? None IMO. Get ready for the no-deal scenario ... the Tory wet dream all along.

British leaders Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn up stakes on economy, Brexit - [Cached version]  

London | Britain's prime minister and opposition leader, both of whose parties are internally fractured on Brexit, have moved to lay out a clear battlefront on economic policy, with Labour vowing to renationalise major utility companies while the Conservative government pledged to cut corporate taxes.

The two leaders also upped the stakes on Brexit, reinforcing the prospect that Britain's parliament may be unable to agree on any kind of exit deal with the European Union and potentially increasing the odds of a no-deal hard Brexit.

May Promises Lowest Corp Tax in G20 to Businesses Investing in Post-Brexit UK | Sputnik News |
Theresa May: No-deal Brexit preferable to EU offer | Politico |
Jeremy Corbyn's most accomplished speech and conference yet | FT Opinion |

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Sep 27th, 2018 at 08:57:53 AM EST
Brexit was ALWAYS about internal Tory politics.  The idea was to have a Brexit vote that wouldn't win to shut-up a bunch of Tory backbenchers.  

But then Brexit passed.

ooops

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Sep 28th, 2018 at 09:55:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's a matter of time if the UK Conservatives remain in power ... all hope invested in Jeremy Corbyn who appears to be a survivor after two years of attacks from all sides! Is there a date set for new General Elections?

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Sep 27th, 2018 at 08:59:16 AM EST
An ally that shrugs responsibility and brexits at the first chance ... cowardly. The spirit of whiteness as advocated by the AngloSaxon Conservative movement with leaders/donors Steve Bannon - Robert Mercer - Paul Singer - Donald Trump.

EU Immigrants will lose preferential status after Brexit, says UK PM | France24 |

Announcing Britain's biggest immigration changes in a generation, Prime Minister Theresa May said that the new system "ends freedom of movement once and for all" a key government promise on Brexit. May continued ...

    "For the first time in decades, it will be this country
    that controls and chooses who we want to come here."

Under the proposals announced at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, applicants from any country wanting to settle in Britain will have to meet a salary threshold, and will only be able to bring their family to live with them if they are sponsored by their employers.

The government confirmed its previous commitment that all the 3 million EU citizens currently living in Britain can stay, even if the U.K. leaves the bloc without an agreement on future relations.

...
Immigration is a divisive issue in Britain, and reducing the number of newcomers was a major factor for many who voted in 2016 to leave the European Union. More than 1 million EU citizens have settled in Britain since eight formerly Communist eastern European nations joined the EU in 2004.

May said that "for too long people have felt they have been ignored on immigration and that politicians have not taken their concerns seriously enough."

BRITAIN!FIRST

NSA Hackers Deep Penetration SWIFT Banking in Middle East
Cambridge Analytica 2.0 Linked to Erik Prince
NY Times: Collusion Trump Transition Team with UAE/Israel

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Oct 2nd, 2018 at 09:27:59 PM EST

Romanian president refuses to approve controversial judicial reforms | DW - May 2018 |

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis refused to approve a package of judicial reforms proposed by the government, which the European Commission has said threatens the judiciary's independence.

Center-right Iohannis said he would be sending the proposed reforms to the Constitutional Court and would seek the opinions of European experts.

The Social Democrats (PSD) used their parliamentary majority to push the three bills in the package through in December despite large street protests across the country and no impact assessment being done.

Romania's protests and the PSD: Understanding the deep malaise that now exists in Romanian society | LSE - Aug. 2018 |

Massive anti-government protests, held in Bucharest and in other major cities in Romania on 10 August and involving more than 150,000 people, have, for the second time in the last eighteen months, thrown Romania into the international spotlight. They followed nationwide demonstrations in February 2017 against the ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) and its leader Liviu Dragnea, and their attempts to undermine the rule of law and the fight against corruption.

Most Romanian politicians do not distinguish between the public and private purse. In its Corruption Perception Index for 2017, where the position 1 represents the least corrupt state, Transparency International ranked Romania joint 59th with Greece (out of 180 countries), up from 58th place the previous year but lower than Hungary (66) and Bulgaria (71) among European Union members.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Thu Oct 4th, 2018 at 08:21:45 AM EST


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