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Pre-BrExit Chaos Ensues

by Oui Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 09:21:17 AM EST

The British business community has lost its patience with the political paralysis in the City of London.

Today's headlines in the media are filled with gloom and doom. To be fair, not just in the UK but also in the port cities on the continent.

In capital letters when decisions are lacking - F  E  A  R  enters.

More below the fold ...

Frontpaged - Frank Schnittger

Tory hardliners reconsider May deal amid fears that Brexit could be blocked

Tory Brexit supporters alarmed by the prospect of a delay have hinted they could be won over in the coming weeks - if Theresa May can produce a serious concession from Brussels on the Irish backstop.

"There are clearly forces at work to block and frustrate Brexit and the most important thing, whether it's good deal, no deal or whatever, is that we leave," said Ben Bradley, the MP for Mansfield. "The public and leave voters will accept nothing less and that means that, yes, I will vote for a revised deal that doesn't include a permanent backstop because, whilst I still have issues with it, those issues are then temporary and our leaving on 29 March is absolutely secured."

It came as George Osborne, the former chancellor, told the BBC in Davos that delaying the UK's exit from the EU was now the "most likely" option. Osborne compared no deal to Russian roulette, saying the prospect of Britain crashing out of the bloc means "the gun is held to the British economy's head".

EU backstop intervention leaves Ireland with unpalatable choices | The Irish Times |

    The European Commission tends not to do things by accident. It's not that sort of organisation. So when commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas told the daily press briefing in Brussels yesterday that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, "you will have a hard border" in Ireland, alarm bells sounded in Dublin.

    Government Buildings issued a statement contradicting the commission's line - itself a highly unusual move - and reiterating Dublin's view that it will not accept a hard border on this island and "therefore we are not planning for one".

    Simon Coveney and Paschal Donohoe - the two most important members of the Government after the Taoiseach - were scrambled to address the media, and Coveney again insisted that Ireland would "not accept" a hard border.

Sony to move Europe headquarters to avoid Brexit disruption | BBC News |

    Sony will move its European headquarters from the UK to the Netherlands to avoid disruptions caused by Brexit. The company said the move would help it avoid customs issues tied to Britain's exit from the EU, according to AFP.

    Sony spokesperson Takashi Iida told AFP the move would make Sony a "company based in the EU" so the common customs procedures will apply to Sony's European operations after Britain leaves the bloc.

    Sony's rival Panasonic has already moved its headquarters to Amsterdam, mostly because of tax issues potentially created by Brexit.

NHS plans alternative transport routes to avoid no-deal medicine shortage

    The government has been reviewing transport routes for all medicines "to maximise the ability for supply to continue unimpeded" after 29 March, according to a letter seen by the Guardian that was was sent out on Thursday.

    "In the event of a `no-deal' scenario this additional transport capacity and prioritisation includes prescription-only medicines and pharmacy medicines, general sales list medicines and unlicensed medicines, including specials and investigational medicinal products used in clinical trials and vaccines," the letter reads.

Britain's Luxury Carmakers Prepare for Worst as Brexit Looms | Bloomberg |

    Aston Martin and Bentley Motors saw this crash coming -- but it's still going to sting.

    Speaking onstage at a conference in Detroit before and after the British Parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal, the chief executive officers of two companies synonymous with U.K. carmaking had been bracing for disaster. Both have been making arrangements to do what they can to avoid problems with their supply chains.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe: UK's richest man and ardent Brexiteer is moving to Monaco

Brexit cheerleader Sir James Dyson relocates firm's headquarters from Wiltshire to Singapore

British chemical giant is investing 2.7 billion in new plants in Antwerp harbor

Businesses cry out for Brexit clarity, warn of no-deal chaos | CNBC |

Business leaders in Britain and beyond warned on Wednesday of catastrophic job losses and chaos at ports if the country does not agree a European Union withdrawal, turning up the heat on politicians to deliver clarity.

A Brexit agreement that would have secured tariff-free trade and safeguarded just-in-time cross-border supply chains was rejected by lawmakers on Tuesday, leaving Britain at risk of leaving the bloc on March 29 without a framework.

From Channel Tunnel operator Eurotunnel to Scottish whisky distillers, firms called for urgent and decisive government action and warned of the consequences of a no-deal Brexit.

'Degradation of border security' under 'no-deal' Brexit, warns UK Border Force | Sky News |

    Border Force planning for a possible "no-deal" Brexit warns the government of "significant outbound queues" at the Eurostar and a "degradation of border security".

    In a leaked presentation, the key Home Office agency admits for the first time it will not be able to distinguish between EU residents and new EU arrivals.

How Europe Is Bracing for Messy Brexit: Dogs, Drones, Do Nothing | Bloomberg - June 2018 |

The early principles of the EEC Founding Fathers - avoid economic deprivation due to war.

Naked Capitalism
When I searched on Brexit just now, I saw such a rehash of what ought to be old stories that I thought there must be something wrong with Google. "May to focus on Irish backstop." "May mulls amending Good Friday Agreement." "U.K. Parliament Moves Closer to Stopping a No-Deal Brexit" And the body of a Guardian story has this blather:

[excerpts from the story you quoted]

Help me. As if no one noticed that May's deal was voted down by a margin of 230?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 10:54:37 AM EST
Yes, but so long it's a choice of ay's deal or no deal, then she knows that her deal will be accepted, even if only on March 28th.

Chaos, destruction of business, colossal costs to the economy? whatever makes anybody think the tories care a damn? They're all millionaires who are only intrested in the sorts of commission money that comes from organising tax havens for billionaires.

Manufacture? Farming? Medicines? That's what little people do and, really, since when have the tories given a damn about them. So long as the disposable people can be sold a convenient lie, the elites can carry on regardless.

And it's working so well

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 07:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Speech by Michel Barnier at the European Economic and Social Committee

On 6 July 2017, at the very start of the negotiations with the UK, I had the pleasure of addressing you. At the time, I said that everybody needed to prepare for Brexit.

I also said that, given the consequences of Brexit, it would not be business as usual: there can be no frictionless trade outside the Single Market and the Customs Union.

And finally, I also said to you that all of us needed to be ready, in any case, for a "no deal".

Ladies and gentlemen,

Eighteen months later, preparing for a "no-deal" scenario is more important than ever, even though I still hope that we can avoid this. The UK will become a third country on 29 March, just 65 days from now.


But my responsibility is to say what is at stake.

There are two possible ways to leave the EU:

  •  An orderly withdrawal based on the agreement that we have built step by step with the UK for the last 18 months.

  •  A disorderly withdrawal: leaving the EU without a deal is the default scenario.

There appears to be a majority in the House of Commons to oppose a "no deal". But opposing "no deal" will not stop "no deal" from happening at the end of March.

To stop "no deal", a positive majority for another solution will need to emerge. This is the objective of the political consultations that Theresa May has started. We hope that this process will be successful.

by Oui on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 06:24:36 PM EST
Government 'should shut down parliament' if MPs delay Brexit, says Jacob Rees-Mogg | Sky News |

A top Brexiteer has claimed the government should shut down parliament if MPs are successful with an attempt to make a "no-deal" departure from the EU impossible.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the European Research Group of Conservative eurosceptics, suggested ministers should "prorogue" parliament if a cross-party effort to thwart a "no-deal" Brexit prospers.

He recommended the drastic action amid the deepening guerrilla warfare in the House of Commons between Brexiteer MPs and those looking for ways to delay the UK's exit from the EU.

The Empire and the Brexit 'Delusions'

British MP Jacob Rees-Mogg sides with occupier Israel on issue of land for Palestinians funded by EU ...

EU funds housing construction for Arabs in Judea and Samaria [occupied Palestinian territory] [March 2016]

by Oui on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 06:50:02 PM EST
the veneer of a democratic Brtain seems to wear thin in the vicinity of JRM. He's one of the super-elite and he expects people to vote for what he wants or he's just going to impose it.

I'm not really sure there's anything to stop him. I'm quite sure the tabloids can whip up a mob to help him make it happen, democracy be damned

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 07:24:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 09:48:24 PM EST
Angela Merkel tells Davos end of multilateralism means 'misery' | DW |

    Merkel mentioned rapid global digitization and its effect on the future of work and data security, and said new global institutions were needed to address such changes. "I still have yet to see any global architecture that deals with these questions," she said.

    She also warned that some of the triggers of the 2007/2008 financial crisis were still present in the banking sector. Global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank must be reformed to restore confidence, but they should not be downgraded, Merkel added.


by Oui on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 10:11:07 PM EST

Germany's foreign minister has described the trans-Atlantic relationship as pivotal | DW |

by Oui on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 10:15:43 PM EST
Government Buildings issued a statement contradicting the commission's line - itself a highly unusual move - and reiterating Dublin's view that it will not accept a hard border on this island and "therefore we are not planning for one".

The amount of stupid in the bolded passage is breath taking in its length, width, and depth.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 12:09:20 AM EST
A little reckless perhaps considering, but not stupid. Think like a pirate.

I have long suspected that some significant UK-IE trade is been off-books. Hard goods and finance. Thinly varnished Irish Times editorial respect for Tory gov "special relationships" over the years.

When anonymous "Government Buildings" PR chimes with Schinas to shake the bushes, so to speak, vermin will scurry to get their papers in order. Just in case. There's an "amnesty" (or not) opportunity, regardless of how customs surveillance takes shape between IE and NI after 29 March. Where will they go?

< wipes tears >

Gracious. The impossible technology solution has been resurrected, I've seen, something about a CCTV network?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 05:22:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, except Varadkar says GFA would still apply, so border would move to Irish Sea.

by asdf on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 05:20:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would be nice, except it crosses a red line of PM Theresa May and the Tory Brexiteers.  :(
by Oui on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 06:00:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It doesn't really. It crosses the DUP's "blood red" lines.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 10:57:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Airbus CEO brands Brexit uncertainty a 'disgrace' | The Engineer |
Plane maker Bombardier calls for 'orderly Brexit' | BBC News |

by Oui on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 10:28:53 PM EST

Brexit: Rudd defies No 10 by calling for Tory MPs to get free vote on move to rule out no deal - as it happened | The Guardian |

Related reading ...

Foreign businesses to UK: solve Brexit or risk £100bn in trade | The Guardian - June 2018 |

by Oui on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 10:30:50 PM EST
Remind the Germans: "We Won!"

    "Wars are not won by evacuations," Churchill said.
     That may be true, but it is hard not to see
     Dunkirk as a pivotal moment in the war.

So the Tory MPs are back into name-calling as they are lacking in arguments for a clear debate! What a complete mess the Tory party is in.

Pro-Brexit MP criticized for 'anti-German' remarks about Airbus chief | DW |

After saying that Enders was "a German paratrooper in his youth," Francois said the CEO's video displayed the "Teutonic arrogance" of the European Union.

"If he thinks because he runs a big company [that] he can bully British MPs on how to vote, he's going to be sorely mistaken," Francois told the BBC. "My father, Reginald Francois, was a D-Day veteran. He never submitted to bullying by any German and neither will his son."

Living in an alternate universe. As I have said before, the British MPs lack leadership and basic knowledge what the project EEC was or EU is all about. Many signs of a return to the global pause in development human kind from a century ago. Poland too is fighting a battle most nations won 50 years ago ...

Polish singer charged with 'publicly insulting the emblem of the state'

Add the perils of Hungary on Schengen Accord and the immigration issue ...

According to Peter Szijjártó, it is also bad for New Year's Eve that Jean-Claude Juncker wants to tell what Christian democracy is. In response to a German newspaper interview by the President of the European Commission, the Foreign Minister said:

    "Jean-Claude Juncker has long been a non-Christian Democrat politician who wrought a statue of Marx, commemorated Fidel Castro, and under whose presidency immigrants spilled over Europe, and the English have left the union."

[Source: In the EU, East and West Are Falling Out of Tune | Stratfor |]

by Oui on Sat Jan 26th, 2019 at 09:40:46 AM EST
Brexit: Deputy Frans Timmermans accuses Tory Brexiters of a 'cavalier' approach to peace

Brexit planners could use martial law against civil disobedience| Sky News |

Jean-Claude Juncker warns Theresa May that a permanent customs union is the price for revisiting the backstop | The Guardian |

`Soldiers' man Irish border checkpoint in Brexit protest | Belfast Telegraph |

by Oui on Sun Jan 27th, 2019 at 03:50:20 PM EST
I know Mark Rutte tried to push a sort of "Martial Law" through Dutch parliament .. he failed. A plot of EU Conservatives to abuse the system?

Can't the Tory government simply move on a national security paradigm, due to universal stress in the UK, and call out Martial Law which would include a House of Commons shutdown with no reimbursement of lost income.

It's time to forget the games ...

How to apply for "settled status" for EU citizens

Brexit App Still Only Works on Android as Shitshow Continues

by Oui on Mon Jan 28th, 2019 at 08:10:21 PM EST
From Michel Barnier to the EU Council and MEPs, one voice of dismissal :: NO!

Brussels sees through the British shenanigans and have concluded PM May has failed to unite the House of Commons. One thing Westminster has proven in yesterday's vote: the members of the ERG group and the DUP cannot be trusted. The need for the Irish border backstop as insurance has been made clear. Brussels sees the vote on the amendments as tactical with no substance. The British politicians have failed their constituents and their (former) partners in the EU.

This morning the EU has realized that the no-deal scenario is real and likely preferred because at least it gives certainty. The economic hardship will be great on both sides.

by Oui on Wed Jan 30th, 2019 at 09:26:10 AM EST
This morning the EU has realized that the no-deal scenario is real and likely preferred because at least it gives certainty.

Exactly so.

There is some excellent writing around this morning lamenting the incompetence of yesterday. I cannot improve on the professionals, so I merely link to the following:

Ian Dunt, Politics.co.uk does not disguise his increasing frustration as he ends with

...there are consequences to this lunacy. Britain is now, it is clear to the world, not a serious country. The way it is behaving is simply not rational. Any reputation it had for credibility or sound judgement is gone. It is a basketcase.

That is humiliating enough. But it has significant medium-term implications too. Firstly, it shows why the backstop was needed in the first place. This country has become an unreliable negotiating partner. It will demand something one day then seek to detonate it the next. The events in the Commons today actually had the ironic effect of reaffirming to the EU the need for the backstop insurance policy.

On a broader level, we are about to go around the world asking for trade deals. But we're seen, by everyone, on the largest stage imaginable, to be fundamentally politically insane. We've gone mad and everyone is looking.

Jonathan Freedland: The Guardian - MPs have voted for a fantasy. It's an indictment of our entire political class
where he suggests how a future public inquiry might report yesterday's incompetence.

And Politico sums up the reaction so far from the EU and the 27 ending with

"More time has not led to better results in recent months, on the contrary," [Manfred] Weber said, when asked about the potential of the EU extending the Brexit negotiation period.

The damage done already to UK's reputation is incalculable. It will have economic consequences for years to come.

"Remaining" now cannot repair that damage, but remaining would allow that damage to be attributed, in the UK, to the very act of remaining. Only "no-deal" with all its further damage, exposes the UK to the inter-dependent reality of modern commerce and the reality of what "WTO rules" and FTAs mean.

Like an alcoholic unable to accept the source of their demise and degradation, many in the UK will continue to blame the EU. But that has persisted for nearly 50 years, so I am sure the EU will cope more easily with UK out rather than in.

by oldremainmer48 on Wed Jan 30th, 2019 at 10:21:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

House of Commons vote on Brady amendment shows disregard for the GFA and the Irish people

After 24 hours of drama, Graham Brady's amendment calling for the backstop to be replaced has been approved by the Commons by 317 to 301. Majority of 16...

It is a fair majority of MPs on an amendment which expresses conditional approval for a deal, providing legally binding changes are made to the backstop. The EU's photocopiers are already going into overdrive recycling old statements about the deal being non-negotiable, the reality is that they cannot ignore this vote. MPs have given May a powerful mandate, it's time she used it and stood up to the EU...

Sir Graham Brady MP for Altrincham and Sale West
The most expensive places to live in Greater Manchester
UK child poverty: get the data by parliamentary constituency

by Oui on Wed Jan 30th, 2019 at 09:56:06 AM EST
Even if the EU was inclined to pursue more negotiations, the margin of 16 votes is not enough to instill confidence that any results would be approved by the UK.
by asdf on Thu Jan 31st, 2019 at 01:57:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... as the 27 member states of the EU exasperates.

MEP says EU now Supports NO-DEAL as Brexiteer 'delusion' infuriates Brussels

Philippe Lamberts, a Belgian MEP, lashed out at Brexiteers in the UK Parliament this morning, the day after they voted to send Theresa May back to the EU to scrap the Irish backstop in exchange for an "alternative arrangement". The Prime Minister won the crucial vote with a majority of 16 last night, giving her a mandate to go back to the EU to demand fresh talks. But Mr Lamberts said Brexiteers are "deluded" if they think Brussels will make concessions regarding the backstop. Mr Lamberts, who is also a prominent member of the EU's Brexit Steering Group, which prepares the European Parliament's deliberations and resolutions on Brexit, said: "There is delusion on the side of the hard Brexiteers, they still deny that what agreed on the Good Friday agreement is here to stay.  

Warring Tories UNITE behind Jacob Rees-Mogg approved Brexit plan - `It's time to DELIVER' | The Express|
'If there's no deal you won't get a penny!' Brexit minister warns that UK will REFUSE to pay £39bn divorce bill unless the EU agrees to PM's new backstop plan | Daily Mail |

Related reading...

Mark Rutte's Dutch Cabinet Gets Emergency Powers in Case of No-Deal Brexit | Bloomberg Today |
Avoid Brexit-style 'chaos' Dutch PM tells his people | EurActiv - Dec. 2018 | [link in article]


by Oui on Wed Jan 30th, 2019 at 10:17:07 AM EST
EU's Jean-Claude Juncker rebuffs UK's plan to change Brexit deal | DW |

The president of the European Commission said the United Kingdom had increased the risk of a no-deal Brexit. He dismissed any fresh talks over the controversial Irish backstop in the draft EU-UK Brexit deal.

Barnier weighs in

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, then addressed the parliament, telling lawmakers that the Irish backstop was part and parcel of the withdrawal agreement and would not be re-negotiated.

"We need this backstop as it is," Barnier said.

Speaking later on French radio, Barnier remarked: "We ourselves talked of so-called alternative arrangements which could prevent the return of a hard border. Only, no one, on either side, was able to say what arrangement would be needed to ensure controls on goods, animals and merchandise, without having a border."  

by Oui on Wed Jan 30th, 2019 at 08:09:55 PM EST
This whole affair is going to go down as a textbook case study of why ranked voting is needed.
by asdf on Thu Jan 31st, 2019 at 01:58:16 AM EST
you may not be able to fool all the people all the time, but if you can fool 52% of them for long enough you can do whatever you want

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Feb 1st, 2019 at 08:34:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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