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Perils of a No Deal BrExit

by Oui Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 10:15:30 AM EST

Interesting commentary, I would like to point out this section with recent comments:

Re: An EU Explainer by Frank

An Open Thread to discuss and present the many articles and interviews discussing the imminence of PM May's loss of the EU Deal vote in the Commons and the risk of crashing out of the European Union end of March 2019.

No-deal Brexit rehearsal in Kent 'a waste of time' | The Guardian |

More below the fold ...

Deal or No Deal? The Perils of Extricating the UK from the EU | Atlantic Council |

The United Kingdom now has a withdrawal deal with the European Union. In painstaking detail, set out in a 585-page document, it settles various aspects of the exit process, and is accompanied by a much briefer (and non-binding) political statement of principles for a future relationship between the UK and the EU.

But now the real problems start. The agreement has been criticized on all sides, with even its chief protagonist, British Prime Minister Theresa May, conceding that it is far from perfect. In the much over-used metaphor, it kicks the can down the road on a number of crucial issues, not least how to avoid a hard border in Ireland, and will struggle to obtain support from the House of Commons.

May's more trenchant critics, especially inside her own party, use terms like "colonization" or "vassal state" to describe an outcome leaving the UK still subject to EU rules and norms, yet with no voice in how they are set. They see the outcome as a betrayal of what was promised in the "take back control" rhetoric of the 2016 referendum.

Ramsgate: Dredging for Brexit No Deal

The DUP has declared again today that it won't vote for Theresa May's deal, so a disorderly Brexit is becoming a distinct possibility, triggering a frenzy of preparations more akin to times of conflict.

University leaders warned today that such a Brexit would be catastrophic for research and funding.

More than 1,000 English and Scottish police officers are being trained for extra duty in case of a hard border on the island of Ireland.

And then there are the ports being prepped for an armada of emergency ferries.

I have written about this terrible person before: Ian Bremmer [EurAsia Group] ...

Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to Brexit

My question is whether the estimates of no-deal Brexit economic damages include second order effects.

For example, if shipping is delayed, it will be harder to get food into the store, so the store shelves will be bare, then food hoarded. Presumably this would lead to some (expensive) emergency plan being put into place to return the food delivery system back to the capability it had before.

A secondary effect might be that consumers will still be worried about the food supply, and so will continue hoarding and other atypical practices even after the original delivery capability has been restored.

Then a tertiary effect, maybe, is that while searching for hard-to-find food, people may put additional load on the fuel supply system, etc.

Considering what happens with a fairly minor event like a predicted snowstorm, which also only goes on for a few days, it seems as if a no-deal Brexit would be likely to show considerable economic damage, much more than the few percentage points predicted in the newspapers.

by asdf on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 03:36:16 PM EST
The most immediate effect of a hard Brexit on headline GDP would probably be the movement abroad of trillions in assets by London based banks financial services companies. The disruption of JIT production processes and movement of time sensitive fresh produce would be secondary to this. I don't think there has even been a serious attempt to estimate tertiary effects.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 04:45:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently the UK generally uses April as the start of the fiscal year. So at least there will be a clean break, paperwork-wise.


by asdf on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think there has even been a serious attempt to estimate tertiary effects.

If those in charge of setting up such analysis had the wit to consult, rather than dismiss, experts, they would discover that analysis of a complex multi-dimensional interconnected non-linear system, subject to multiple disturbance, is futile. They call such analysis "Chaos Theory" for a good reason.

A simple example of unexpected consequences is the stoppage, in Summer 2018, to production of beer, fizzy drinks, muffins and threats to supply of poultry and pig meat when multiple Carbon Dioxide plants closed at the same time for maintenance.

That was one disturbance. The default legal position is that on 29th March UK loses multiple supply agreements and disturbs multiple supply chains. We would then discover the consequences but never fully analyse the causes and interconnections.

Predictions vary from "It's all project fear to concentrate the minds, so it will be 'all right on the night'", through "Britain - The Venezula of the North" to "Civil War".

I am to the right hand side of that spectrum (if there is "no deal").

I am no 'expert'. I have just stumbled across a few buzz words

by oldremainmer48 on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 10:14:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Every distopian nightmare scenario, up to and including Mad Max is probably gonna feature.

We now have idiots talking about "blitz spirit", which usually involves people who have no idea what they're talking about except what they saw in the film "Battle of Britain" (short version : they got the Rose and Crown but everybody was happy).

Because, having been promised endless wine and roses with an extra £350 million a week for the NHS, people are going to be perfectly fine with bread and meat rationing whilst hoping that the insulin supplies don't defrost in the lorry as it waits to clear customs.

We simply don't have the infrastructure to deal with shortages, the distribution networks aren't geared up the same way they were. People are going to starve in their 10s of thousands.

Come next winter, when people will bgin freezing and starving I suspect we may be facing a breakdown of society. There are a lot of weapons being smuggled into the UK at the moment according to the police and customs, but few of them seem to be for day to day crime. Which leads me to suspect that certain right wing elements are preparing for violent insurrections.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:12:14 PM EST
And where is Oswald Mosley when you need him?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:14:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Tommy Robinsons sees himself leading this rabble, but I suspect shadier people will "take back control". Possibly Erik Prince may be on contract to tidy things up.

After all, none of the brexiteers mind if a few million paups starve to death, but absolute anarchy is bad for business credibility

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:21:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU in general will take a minor hit: 2 to 3 percent decline.  This assumes the EU will not do the smart thing and drop that silly Austerity crap for a goodly dollop of stimulus spending.

Ireland will take a major hit: upwards of 5% downwards, buffered by EU

UK will take a massive hit: could be as high as 10% in the first year as the financial firms, etc., hie themselves hence to other quarters.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:12:21 PM EST
If Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union is a good compare-to.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:21:28 PM EST
it's a useful one to compare, except that Russia wasn't an import-dependent economy. Also, you had  population who were somewhat used to shortages and had many work arounds to cope.

Wheras we've been the 5th/6th richest economy in the world for quite a while, most of us are somewhat accustomed to live amidst plenty. Shortages are gonna be a shock, scapegoats will be sought and I hope Boris Johnston is high on that list.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:30:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
scapegoats will be sought and I hope Boris Johnston is high on that list.

If only. I fully expect the Brexit crowd to point at the EU's "intransigence", to deflect the blame, then, if the situation deteriorates, accuse the Continentals of organizing a blocus to turn plucky Britain into a vassal state, conjuring shades of the "darkest hours" and the famous "blitz spirit".

Blaming Johnny Foreigner has always been a winning formula for UK pols; I don't expect Brexit to change that; quite the opposite, actually.

by Bernard on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 09:01:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who will be their Putin?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:35:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody currently in Parliament, that's for certain. Chinless wonders are fine when little is at stake except when one might reasonably have the first gin, but they lack the ruthlessness necessary for the sitautions that will develop over the next 18 months. David Davis or somebody like them may be the puppet figurehead, but I suspect that Johnston and Rees-Mogg will be given to the mob as useful sacrifices.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't forget it took Putin almost 10 years to become President after the fall of the Soviet Union. These things take time.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:56:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Anna Soubry urges police action after 'Nazi taunts' outside Parliament | BBC News |

    "Never seen anything like it a bunch of thugs assault @peoplesvote_uk in #Sunderland bringing shame on a great city and its people and our country. We will not give in to the #Brexit." [Source: twitter Ms Anna Soubry - Oct. 6, 2018]

Turds, Traitors and Tossers: The Abuse of UK MPs via Twitter
The Killing of Jo Cox

Further reading ...

Hillary Clinton and Jo Cox United to Bomb Syria

by Oui on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 10:45:05 AM EST
Hmmm, it's not something that's just happened. Nigel Farage fetched up in Edinburgh in 2013 and got such a barracking that 50 policemen had to rescue him and drive him away in a secure van.


There are problems with social media, where small enclaves of previously isolated lunatics can find comfort, encouragement and support and who can then levarage flash mobs which will command media attention.

As somebody Socttish pointed out, at that point in 2013, nigel Farage, who had no seat in Parliament, had appeared on the BBC's flagship ploitics show  more often that the entirety of the Scottish National Party, who at that time dominated the Scottish parliament and had 50 MPs in Westminster. The protest was as much against this wholly disproportionate coverage of ukip as it was against Farage.

Also, this is reality TV now. Tommy Robinson leveraged being arrested and crowdfunding his defense into enabling him to buy a very nice house. It's a career path. The loudmouth who was protesting against Anna Soubry has pictures of him wearing MAGA hats (US) and yellow jerseys (France), yet wants to claim his beliefs are entirely British (English).

Also, this is nothing new, Peterloo (Establishment violently crushing workers demands) and Cable Street (working classes resisting 30s fascism) stand as exemplars of violent unrest in the UK.

We've had a long period of "peace" (miners strikes not withstanding), because there was a post-war consensus about the role of the State in maintaining checks and balances within socitey that is now breaking down before our eyes. Not just here, but across the entire Western world..

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 12:49:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This all ends in blood. The question is whose and how much.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 12:55:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it will all be the blood of innocents; those most responsible will live in other countries and never feel the heat of the fires they started

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 01:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I'm not sure allowing yourself to be manipulated into picking up weapons and rioting leaves you innocent - my preferred option is the police breaking a few right-wing yobs heads' when they try  to make trouble post-revocation.

But I fear we'll end up with pogroms in a post-Brexit meltdown instead.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 01:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the media (who are centrists and right wingers) are into the whole "both sides do it" full bore at the moment.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 01:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
German far-right MP Frank Magnitz badly hurt in Bremen attack
German far-right politician Frank Magnitz has been beaten up and severely injured in an attack seen by police as politically motivated.

The leader of Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Bremen was attacked by at least three masked men in the centre of the northern city on Monday.

The attackers knocked him unconscious with a piece of wood and kicked him in the head, AfD officials said.

by das monde on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 02:17:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Police investigation casts doubts on AfD's version of events ...

Doubt cast over details of attack on AfD lawmaker Magnitz | DW |

Frank Passade, a spokesman with the Bremen prosecutor's office, said the video shows that Magnitz was attacked by three people, but he added that it looks likely that most of Magnitz's injuries were sustained as he hit the ground.

Magnitz checked himself out of the hospital on Wednesday and is recovering well, according to fellow Bremen AfD member Thomas Jürgewitz.

On Tuesday, the lawmaker spent most of the day talking to the press, inviting journalists to his sick bed to see the wounds on his face, covered with thick layers of gauze, and drawing their attention to the wheelchair he was using in hospital.


Magnitz's AfD colleagues have used the incident as a call to action, blaming the far-left Antifa group, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), and "left-wing terrorists," for the parliamentarian's wounds.

CCTV may contradict Magnitz

On Wednesday, however, prosecutors in Bremen questioned whether Magnitz was assaulted in exactly the manner he described. A spokesman told German news agency DPA that CCTV footage of the attack showed Magnitz being elbowed once, then falling over as his attackers ran away.

[In next article some links added are mine - Oui]

German police cast doubt on details of attack on rightwing politician | The Guardian |

German police and prosecutors have questioned some of the claims made by a rightwing populist politician who suffered an attack that left him with serious head injuries.

Police say video footage casts doubt on assertions by Frank Magnitz that he was beaten with a wooden instrument by attackers who only stopped assaulting him when two passersby intervened.

Magnitz, 66, the head of Alternative für Deutschland in the city state of Bremen, was hospitalised on Monday evening after being attacked by strangers.


Jörg Meuthen, the party's federal chairman, posted a photograph on Twitter on Tuesday, showing the MP, apparently unconscious, with a deep gash to his head and a bruised face, and calling the attack an "assassination attempt".

Magnitz gave several interviews from his hospital bed on Tuesday. He told the Berliner Morgenpost that while he "didn't want to dramatise" the attack, he believed it had been "a politically motivated assassination attempt". In a subsequent interview with the tabloid Bild, he said while it was unlikely, he would not rule out that he might also have been the victim of a mugging.

He said the last thing he could recall was passing a handyman's van, after which "everything went dark". He came round, he said, when someone shook his arm, and asked if he still had his mobile phone and his wallet.

Magnitz said he suspected his attackers might have been participants at a nearby memorial demonstration for an asylum seeker who was killed in police custody in Bremen 14 years ago.

He told the Morgenpost he assumed someone from the demonstration recognised him and decided to follow him.

A spokeswoman for the event's organisers, the "Initiative to remember Laye-Alama Condé", accused Magnitz of speculation and of "purposefully wanting to discredit the subject matter of our event".

Magnitz hält Kundgebungsteilnehmer für Täter | Frakfurter Allgemeiner |

Mobiler Denkort erinnert an Laye Condé
Widerstand gegen Denkmal für Laye-Alama Condé | Der Spiegel - Jan. 19, 2015 |

Related reading @ThinkProgress ...

A so-called 'attack' on a far-right German politician has been thrown into doubt

by Oui on Thu Jan 10th, 2019 at 03:50:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
    Die AfD spricht von "Linksterror"

    In der Erklärung ist von einem "Attentat" die Rede, von einem "mörderischen Akt", begangen von vermummten "Terroristen". Dahinter stecke die Bremer Antifa, die auch von Linken, SPD und Grünen unterstützt werde. Mit einem Kantholz hätten die Angreifer Magnitz bewusstlos geschlagen. "Sie traten weiter gegen seinen Kopf, als er bereits am Boden lag." Parteichef Alexander Gauland sagt in Berlin, die Tat sei das "Ergebnis der andauernden Hetze von Politikern und Medien" gegen die AfD. Co-Parteichef Jörg Meuthen spricht in einem Video-Statement von "Linksterror".

Bremen police release video of attack on AfD lawmaker Frank Magnitz | DW |

The Bremen public prosecutor's office and police on Friday released video of an attack on Bremen AfD Chairman Frank Magnitz that could shed light on details of the assault.

The court order required for the release of the video was issued Thursday by the Bremen local court, police said in a statement. The CCTV footage released by police showed Magnitz being elbowed once and then falling over as the attackers fled.

New far-right German party adopts former secret Nazi symbol

by Oui on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 07:45:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by das monde on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 02:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No outrage over the attacks on Diane Abbott, who receives more online abuse and death threats than all other female MPs combined?

And, Laura Kuennsberg is not a dispassionate observer. She abused her role as a journalist to orchestrate a Shadow Cabinet resignation for maximum embarrassment to Jeremy corbyn. She was front and centre in leading the charge of the wholly false anti-semitic attacks on Corbyn.

To claim that legitimate complaints about her' and Andrew Neill's blatant anti-corbyn bias amount to abuse is to stretch language beyond the bounds of comprehension.

Sadly, they are but the two most prominent BBC Journalists who've been found to leave their thumbs on the scales of impartiality. there are others. Nick Robinson does sometimes let his Tory flag fly, but he is a paragon of virtue compared to the other two. And Andrew Marr has become a joke, the monstering of Carole Cadwalladr and Shami Chakrabarti was simply shameful.

Kay Burley works for Sky, aka Murdoch. Of course it's biased against Labour, that's why it exists

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 03:38:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fintan O'Toole: British wrong to think revolutions are bloodless

We need to talk about political violence. In Britain's current crisis, it is hinted at, alluded to, occasionally threatened. It has a spectral presence, as for example last week, when foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt claimed that "the social consequences . . . of not going ahead and leaving the EU on March 29th, as we've been instructed to do, would be devastating". But it also has a very specific resonance: different ways of thinking about political violence are at the heart of the divide between Britain and Ireland and thus of the failure of the whole Brexit project.

In less than five years, Britain has experienced two attempted revolutions, two upheavals of the kind that, historically speaking, are typically associated with mass violence. One of these is the demand for Scottish independence, culminating in the referendum of 2014. The other is Brexit. Each occupies the emotion-soaked terrain of belonging and identity, that treacherous landscape of minefields and quicksand. And each has been remarkably peaceful. There was no serious violence in Scotland. Brexit has resulted in the murder of an MP, Jo Cox, and has indirectly fed a rise in attacks on "foreigners". But from any global or historical viewpoint, it looks unusually pacific.

If you're Irish and you say this to Scots or English people, they look at you in puzzlement. They measure these things by a different scale. Scots were deeply upset that people were abusing each other online during the referendum and that there were some instances of politicians being shouted at in the street. English people are devastated that they can't talk about Brexit at the Christmas dinner table without risking a row. I do not want to minimise the genuine unpleasantness of this discord, but - how shall we put this? - it's not Bloody Sunday or Bloody Friday or Enniskillen or Greysteel or La Mon or the Shankill Butchers.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 01:30:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The murder of my wife, Jo Cox, is being used to cow MPs. That's not her legacy | The Guardian Opinion |

... the thing that comes out in almost every photo is her spirit of generosity and kindness. Her smile is unmissable and unforgettable - even in the face of awful weather, precipitous rock climbs or on tough days. We miss her energy and positivity in our lives as much as anything.

So it's hard to describe how strange it is to see her name used as a threat. At first it was individual MPs being threatened with her name.

Anna Soubry, a Tory MP harangued by far-right protesters on Monday, was threatened by a man who said she should be "Jo Cox'd". The man responsible was jailed for eight weeks.

Helen Jones, Labour MP for Warrington North, was similarly threatened. A man holding a hunting knife said to social workers: "I'm going to go there and Jo Cox her."

A third MP, Stella Creasy, received a threatening letter saying she would "join that woman cox". The SNP politicians Stewart Stevenson and Angus MacNeil were told to "remember what happened to Jo Cox" - the person responsible in that case was prosecuted and fined.

by Oui on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 02:23:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Christmas dinner table

Wasn't it always like this in Ireland? Or is that just the impression I got from Portrait of an artist?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 06:19:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For once I'm gonna disagree strongly with Fintan O'Toole. In fact, he skirts being condescendinly patronising.
 for starters, the English Civil war was hardly bloodless. I know it was in the mid 17th century, but he's the one who started there.

Moving forwards, from Peterloo (1819) onwards, the English Establishment have always ensured that they demonstrate an eagerness to use overwhelming violence against any threat of insurrection and will  be merciless at the first sign of trouble. The number of deaths may be small, 15 or so at Peterloo, only 1 when Churchill ordered troops to fire on strking miners in Tonypandy in 1910, no known deaths after the Battle of George Square in glasgow 1919 when tanks and cavalry were used. But on each and every occasion hundreds are left injured and thousands are traumatised. The lesson is learned ; step out of line and you and every one you know will suffer grievously.

Even the Battle of Orgreave in the 80s was a minor demonstration, but using modern disinformation techniques to sell a lie to to the public as to what actually happened and bolster the Establishment's case. Few were badly injured, but the television narrative sent the message intended.

At no point has a genuine revolution been attempted since the 1650s, but blood has been shed at every stage of establishing basic rights for working people.

However, we are here now, and fascists roam the streets unmolested. Left wingers may be arrested for staging lay down protests outside the Houses of Parliament, but violent hooligans seem to be free to harange and threaten legislators at their convenience.

And, as I've said, we haven't got to the end of the A50 process yet. The police have reported an uptick of guns and other weapons being smuggled into the UK, yet we have seen no increase in gun-related crime. All of which suggests that these groups are tooling up.

If brexit happens then we may have a period of calm, but if A50 is cancelled or things begin to fall apart after brexit, then I suspect we may be in for desperate times with a genuine possibility of an attempted coup.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 07:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A pitchfork is a suitable weapon in a mob action. No importing needed.
by asdf on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 08:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a gun with plenty of ammo is gonna be better

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 08:49:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think we'll see a coup if Brexit is cancelled. I don't think the fascists are numerous enough, organised enough, or professional enough to organise a coup - unless they're led by the armed forces. Which is possible, but perhaps not very likely - although given their hatred of Corbyn, I wouldn't want to bet money on it not happening if Corbyn wins a GE.

I think if Brexit goes ahead and things fall apart, then we might see a coup. In fact I suspect this has been the plan all along. The Tories do love their fascist dictatorships, and turning the UK into one would surely be a wet dream for them.

The thing that worries me is May's relatively insouciance. She said outright to Corbyn during PMQs "We will never let you govern" and that suggests there are backup plans. She certainly doesn't seem unduly stressed about the current Parliamentary resistance to her deal. And the criminal actions of the Tories suggest they see no prospect of any accountability or retribution.

But they could also just be idiots. Many of them clearly are.

Today's events suggest Parliament is serious about stopping No Deal, and it still seems unlikely that May's deal will get through. The latest rumour is that she's threatening a GE if the deal is voted down - to be held in April, which means No Deal would be the default.

Unfortunately for her the Henry VIII legislation enacted last year makes it possible for Parliament to vote to extend or revoke A50 without her approval, and without the debating cycle of a full bill.

It would be hilariously ironic if her insane power grab actually gave Parliament the tools to stop her insane Brexit plans.

The next couple of weeks are going to be very interesting.

But this is the UK in survival mode. The core problems - which are symbolised by the Tory party, and are based on an underlying geriatric nostalgia, instead of a progressive vision for the future - will still have to be solved even if Brexit is halted.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 10:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Checking Wikipedia, UK certainly has enough forces for a couple. But would the officer corps comply? Would the troops?

If armed forces are called out to handle protests and they disobey and join the protesters, the government is usually done for.

by fjallstrom on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 11:57:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the coup will be a strike against any polticians who are seen as standing against what the right wing desire.

A semi-coordinated strike against senior Labour politicians and remain tories. Decapitate the opposition and that is your coup there

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 10th, 2019 at 06:44:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But aren't you agreeing with his central thesis that the: "British wrong to think revolutions are bloodless"? He doesn't think revolutions are, but he thinks many Brits share the illusion that they are...

He is warning against the complacency that Brexit is no big deal really, and that the British will muddle through as the always do with a minimum of fuss or violence.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 10th, 2019 at 12:13:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and I'm saying that the Establishment already know that blood is shed even during "peaceful" evolution. They've made a ready habit of it for the last 200 years and they'll certainly be ready for more, down to the last drop of opposition blood. It's how they defended the Empire and it's how they'll defend their brexit.

And it is their brexit. The Establishment didn't like having the EU regulate (a bit) their nasty little scams, so when they say "taking back control", they don't mean the people of the UK any more than they mean Parliament (the recent recalcitrance of the backbenches is most unwelcome), they mean for themselves. From europe, from oversight; their own private low regulation tax haven.

And if Leave voters think this is about their unicorn and rainbow wish list, then they're going to be pretty disappointed

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 10th, 2019 at 06:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems to me that the thing about Brexit is that it's really, largely, a fight within the Establishment - they've weaponised racists and idiots, but really its a power struggle between various wings of the ruling classes.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 09:38:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to one learned friend it's a clash between two masonic bodies.
He sees the Trump/Clinton dichotomy in that same light.
At first blush it sounded like stock potboiler conspiracy but I am seeing a similar pattern emerging in the hive mind.
Two unnamed forces in a death match with 70% of society as collateral damage. Two forces whose greed for dominion of the lion's share of a shrinking global economy is laying waste to everything around, thrashing in throes to try and keep the old systems running one more profit cycle. .

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 10:00:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Seems to me that the thing about Brexit is that it's really, largely, a fight within the Establishment - they've weaponised racists and idiots, but really its a power struggle between various wings of the ruling classes."

So very true!

That's been my thesis all along in recent years. You have stated as such  in a brief comment.

It's been a storm gathering from de defeat of Barry Goldwater in 1964. The social revolution of the 1960s, the year 1968, the hippies and sexual liberation ... a counterrevolution was about to happen. The Reagan/Bush years ... Newt Gingrich and Gov shutdown ... rise of then neocons and the luck of a Bush administration in a time of war .. the rise of might through Evangelical Christians ... terror, fear and Islamophobia ... populist parties tapping in the opportunity ... joint effort American and British conservatives attaining their goals of Brexit and a Trump presidency ... reaping profits for another eight years.

Democracy Unplugged, Regime Change and Project Alamo

Putting blame on Russia is just a big distraction ... running the playbook of the 1950s with Un-American Activities.

G W F and McCarthyism In A Digital Age - Part 1

Plenty of titles one can read and contemplate, an update of Warfare and Clausewitz ...

  • What Clausewitz Can Teach Us About War on Social Media - Military Tactics in the Age of Facebook [Foreign Affairs]
  • Cyber Wars:  A Paradigm Shift from Means to Ends [Min. of Defence, India]
  • Adapting Clausewitz to the Information Age: How Traditional News Media and Social Networking are Combining to Expand the Triangle [Naval War College]
  • Just found this from Leiden University - Perspectives on terrorism - recent online resources.

    by Oui on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 11:12:14 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    There is a lot to discover, for example, that changes in leadership of the USA are cosmetic. The leadership of the HUAC was always "bi-partisan". By definition, it's purpose remains to quash in the "body politic" any alternative ideology or purposes of its incorporation --as nation, as army, as a society-- to that professed by its commanders.

    So it has been since English plantation shareholders arrived in Virginia.

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

    by Cat on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 02:52:14 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Which is where parallels between Brexiters and gilets jaunes fall flat. God alone knows if anyone weaponised the gilets jaunes. A little help from the ultra-right, no doubt, or from RT, the FN... Certainly some ectoplasmic blob spawned by FB algorithms. More certainly yet a decade of austerity tacked on the end of several decades of gradual job bleeding and loss of future prospects.

    But an intra-establishment struggle, not. The entire establishment is shitting itself. Even Jean-Luc Mélenchon looks uncomfortable.

    I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

    by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 02:23:51 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    That activity is known historically as "raising an army", to incorporate numbers of people by hook or crook. This mass of people, this "body," this "party," has one purpose. That purpose is obedience to a commander.

    Now, one asks oneself, "Self, what is my commander's purpose?"

    That activity is, not ironically, known to the common man as insubordination. The attitude of each one to incorporation and purposes of the body is not indeed a trivial feature being of it, the sense of belonging to a "body politic", a senseless object.

    Just so the "D" of DUP stands in for Democratic, next to Unionist. It had never before occurred to me to look into the abbreviation of itself.

    Appropriate future access to low-skilled labour in Northern Ireland is important, particularly given the potential for local firms to be placed at a competitive disadvantage to those in the Republic of Ireland where there are not similar labour market constraints.

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
    by Cat on Fri Jan 11th, 2019 at 02:36:23 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    it won't be the ones who pick up the weapons who shed blood. It will be those who don't.

    keep to the Fen Causeway
    by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 03:39:07 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    AP | UK Parliament moves to make 'no-deal' Brexit more difficult
    hmmm. NO more 'difficult' than usual to implement Tory gov austerity policy; NO more 'difficult' than usual to default. hmmm... ahhn ...

    BBC | MPs try to limit government's no-deal financial powers

    If passed, it would mean the government would not be able to raise certain taxes and take other financial steps arising from a no deal - unless Parliament had explicitly authorised the UK leaving the EU without a deal.
    Guardian | Theresa May suffers Commons defeat over no-deal Brexit
    Privately those behind the amendment's success concede it may have little material effect on no-deal preparations. ...Backers of the amendment concede that it cannot, in and of itself, stop a no-deal Brexit from occurring. ...it would not prevent the government from collecting tax.
    ITV | Finance bill amendment: Why it could impact no-deal Brexit
    A separate measure backed by the Liberal Democrats and other opposition parties would prevent the government collecting key taxes unless Parliament has approved its approach to Brexit.

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
    by Cat on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 03:20:22 AM EST
    by Oui on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 02:36:57 PM EST
    Tories call for Holyrood inquiry into botched Alex Salmond probe | The Scotsman |

    A Holyrood inquiry is being called for into the "shambles" surrounding the botched sexual harassment probe into former First Minister Alex Salmond. The Tories have made the call amid concerns the Scottish Government conceded defeat in the case against the former First Minister to stop more embarrassing revelations coming to light.

    Mr Salmond won a dramatic victory over the Government he once led at the Court of Session in Edinburgh yesterday after procedural flaws emerged in the handling of a probe into two allegations of sexual harassment which had been made against him.

    The botched Alex Salmond harassment inquiry could stop women speaking out | The Guardian - Opinion |

    At the court of session in Edinburgh on Tuesday, the Scottish government accepted that civil servant Judith MacKinnon had had "prior contact" with the complainants before she was appointed to lead the inquiry. It was also suggested she was involved in drafting the new procedures which allowed the complaints to be brought.


    The first minister has also thrown her weight behind Evans. In a statement she said she had full confidence in the permanent secretary and that she would remain in her post. But Evans didn't helped herself by issuing a statement in which she claimed that all Salmond's other complaints about the process - including that he had been denied access to the evidence - had been "dismissed" (they were dismissed only in the sense they were not considered because they had become "academic").

    With calls for a scalp coming from all sides, Evans may yet be forced out, especially if the police investigation ends with no charges. And, if she is, Sturgeon's credibility will be further undermined. But the greatest casualty of this debacle is trust in the process.  

    Nicola Sturgeon apologises after flaw found in Alex Salmond investigation

    by Oui on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 07:21:48 PM EST
    dealing internally with such allegations always leads to problems. Call the police and back off. Amateurs reading rule books as they go will always fuck up.

    keep to the Fen Causeway
    by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 08:03:58 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

    There should be specialized teams with the police and prosecution to handle such cases and protect the most vulnerable.

    by Oui on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 08:07:54 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    everything looks like a nail.

    archived believe
    Alex Salmond: Sexual harassment complaints against me have no foundation


    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

    by Cat on Thu Jan 10th, 2019 at 05:03:44 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The EU states have kept one voice in approach towards the negotiations which expresses a lot of confidence in the team lead by Michel Barnier. The opposite partner has from the start shown division and Theresa May's posturing has exacerbated divisiveness by her choice of Party above Country. She has fallen flat on her face and no one is willing to pick her up.

    For The Netherlands and Mark Rutte, a no-deal is not an option and he is willing to go further to seek a compromise. Rutte is right-wing and conservative with similar goals as Great Britain under Tories and the U.S. with Republican leadership.

    There is a good chance, all parties involved will make a different choice in the last minute before the hammer falls. The hard Brexiteers are willing to sacrifice the nation to get their preferred no-deal.

    UK MEP Andrew Duff: Brexit deal could be nudged through with a 'judicious tweak'
    Juncker's magic (soy)beans -- Romania fights -- Barnier's reminder | Politico EU |

    Posted earlier in Frank's new diary ...

    Too little, too late

    by Oui on Sat Jan 12th, 2019 at 01:03:53 PM EST
    For my own sake I put up these links as I'm no legal expert .... and I'm not sure Frank or a blogger has already published this information. ET is in need of a library on BrExit. :)

    EC: Brexit overview and timeline

    11 January 2019
    Council decision on the signing of the withdrawal agreement

    The Council (Article 50) adopted a decision on the signing of the withdrawal agreement. It also approved a draft decision on the conclusion of the withdrawal agreement and decided to forward that draft decision to the European Parliament for its consent.

      One or more Member States may request that the Commission representative be accompanied, as part of the Union delegation, by a representative of that or those Member States in a meeting of the Joint Committee or of a specialised committee in case particular matters to be addressed at that meeting are of a specific interest to that or those Member
      States. In particular, Ireland, the Republic of Cyprus and the Kingdom of Spain, respectively, may request that the Commission representative be accompanied by:
      a representative of Ireland, in the meetings of the Committee on issues related to the implementation of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland where those issues are specific to Ireland/Northern Ireland;
      a representative of the Republic of Cyprus, in the meetings of the Committee on issues related to the implementation of the Protocol relating to the Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus;
      a representative of the Kingdom of Spain, in the meetings of the Committee on issues related to the implementation of the Protocol on Gibraltar.

    Brexit: what has to happen in UK and EU parliaments to ratify withdrawal and future trade agreements

    The future relationship

    However, the situation on the EU side is constitutionally more complex than with the divorce part of the Brexit process. In addition to the EU parliament, which must consent to the future trade agreement, all 27 member states will need to ratify it according to their national constitutional provisions.

    This is because the future trade agreement between the UK and the EU would be a mixed agreement, dealing with some matters for which the EU is responsible and with some matters which fall into what's called "shared competence" between the member states and the EU. For example, the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) ruled in 2017 that provisions relating to investor-state dispute settlement procedures and non-direct foreign investments fall into areas of shared competence.

    by Oui on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 06:00:34 AM EST
    Through black-ops and covert operations, European states have remained vassal states of the USA. Through Trump and his ilk this is about to change for the better.

    Re: Explaining the EU to outsiders  (4.00 / 3)

    America seems, in your account, Frank, to be something of an absent kind uncle. But America is no more absent from Europe than it is from any other major sector of the world. Certainly, in the postwar years, American policy was to support economic integration in Western Europe opposite the Soviet-controlled Eastern bloc. What should not be forgotten is that the same benevolent power was running stay-behind ops in Italy and Belgium (and would have in France too, absent De Gaulle), cooperating with British anti-Communist ops in Greece, tolerating dictatorships in Spain and Portugal, and using Britain and West Germany as Cold War bases, staging-grounds, and propaganda flyers.

    The Soviet threat gone, American policy is to support EU/NATO expansion eastwards to prevent Russia from reasserting its influence over Central and Eastern Europe. What America wants from the EU is definitely not political integration into a power capable of being a rival on the world stage. America supports a large neoliberal free-trade area of independent member states with which it can maintain bilateral relations as and how it wishes - in other words, no single rival power but many vassals. (The question that should have been put to Kissinger re his telephone quip is, "How pleased would you be to have just one number and a strong voice at the other end of the line?").

    Ideally for the US, EU vassals should be putting more blood and treasure into military undertakings, making NATO a more perfect tool of American policy while freeing up American military resources for presence elsewhere on the planet. EU member states tend to pussy-foot on that, though remaining by and large obedient to American wishes. Such as, for instance, accepting the secret negotiation of a trade treaty combining the US and EU in a single trade area.

    As for Britain's role in all this, it has often been described as America's Trojan Horse in the EU. Britain has now spent thirty years fighting for disunion and neoliberalism, so Trojan Horse sounds fair enough, if mild.

    Signed, The Atlanticist ;)

    by afew on Tue Sep 30th, 2014 at 03:22:02 AM PDT

      Re: Explaining the EU to outsiders (none / 1)

      Thanks for pointing that out.  I think I beat you to the "Trojan Horse" comment in a comment I made on Kos:

      Explaining the European Union to outsiders

      I should have added that the USA was also v. supportive of UK efforts to incorporate Eastern European States as quickly as possible to prevent them falling into a Russian Sphere of influence as well as to prevent EU political Union and Economic integration proceeding too fast and to effectively.

      Do the British elite how isolated economically and how irrelevant politically the UK could become if it did leave the EU?  If so, why do they continue to play the dangerous game of stoking up anti-EU feeling at every opportunity - or have some elements of the elite not gotten the memo yet?

      Index of Frank's Diaries

      by Frank Schnittger on Tue Sep 30th, 2014 at 04:01:39 AM PDT

    Emphatic 'No' by de Gaulle | The Guardian - Nov. 1967 |

    Related reading ...

    More about Trojan Horses here @EuroTrib and earlier @BooMan

    by Oui on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 03:16:26 PM EST
    I would suggest that figuring out "what the US wants" in global relationships is not very easy to do right now. We are currently dealing with a particularly challenging set of internal problems and aren't really paying attention to Europe.

    For example, within the next two years we may end up with:

    • A continuation of the current administration.
    • A transition to an administration run by a Christian Dominionist.
    • A transition to an administration run by a triangulating centrist Democrat.
    • A transition to an administration run by young progressives.

    It is completely up in the air right now.
    by asdf on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 03:31:27 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    good comments summarizing 70 years of US/UK/EU policy.

    Not sure that, even after Trump, there will be much capability/appetite in the US to attempt to re-assert itself in europe; there would be too much work needed to undo the damage.

    keep to the Fen Causeway

    by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 06:19:30 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Without the UK the US will find it hard-to-impossible to exert the influence ... and control? ... it has had in the EU.

    She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
    by ATinNM on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 06:03:24 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Atlanticism is alive and well in the EU aside from grumbling about Iran and Russia sanctions, methinks.
    The old guard certainly, we will see how much Spring EU elections tamper with that. Populists (like Gilets Jaunes and 5*M, Podemos, Varoufakis and Labour's Momentum) and neo-fascists like ADF, Front Nationale, Salvini's Lega and the Visigrad group could usher in a more bi-polar phase quite similar to what is happening in the US, where a Bannon-esque hard right with a rapidly crystallising sense of national -and international- identity and the Left struggles to find any shreds of identity other than dissatisfaction with centrist, neoliberal policies of austerity and wealth jnequality.
    For Conte to be accepted as coalition Italian prime minister he had to make an avowal of acceptance of America's right to (continue to) co-administer Europe and use its bases as military front line for African imperial adventuring, stepping stones to the ME, and as convenient locations from which to needle Putin.
    With the Caribbean basin shaping up to be the new ME,  with Venezuela a new Saudi Arabia, perhaps the new friction points with China and Russia there will necessitate backing off from the ME somewhat and thus lowering pressure on Europe to carry so much water, leaving Israel and Saudi to run things.
    Hubris being what it is, America may well try and maintain two hot fronts at once, but so far Putin -and Lavrov- have put the kybosh on annihilating Iran for the moment anyway. Leaving Ukraine festering and Erdogan chewing on his bit to finish off the Kurds as enough creative chaos for now.
    Should be an interesting year.

    'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
    by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jan 25th, 2019 at 11:24:56 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Excellent analysis and quite concise ... worthy to get attention as a stand alone diary. 😊
    by Oui on Fri Jan 25th, 2019 at 12:24:30 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    by Oui on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 10:27:42 PM EST
    EU's Tusk ready to accommodate PM May with a 3-4 month "technical delay" which can be extended further ... I'm going to take a nap ... supply of pop corn needs replenishing. Period of chaos and uncertainty could be longer than first thought.
    by Oui on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 11:29:20 PM EST
    Link - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july
    by Oui on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 11:30:02 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    "a ridiculous variety of opportunities to correct their own perversity"

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
    by Cat on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 12:04:36 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    "It is FALSE, UK may modify TEU exit date by means or conditions other than WA terms which are not in force. (That is my read. TEU A.50 ends UK agency in EU. Council agreement to supersede would violate conclusion to negotiations, now submitted. UK retained powers pertain to ECJ narrow judgment and application of Vienna.)"

    wrong again!

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
    by Cat on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 01:02:45 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    EU preparing to delay Brexit until AT LEAST July
    Danielle ["12-week General Election Calendar"] Haralambous, a UK analyst at the EIU, said: "Time is simply running out, and we're at a stage where Brexit can probably[!] only [!] happen in late March now in the unlikely[!] event that parliament approves [wut] Mrs May's [LEAVE] deal on 15 January, or if parliament supports leaving without a deal. For all other options [REMAIN], the government will need to buy more time, and we think the EU will be willing to provide it to avoid a cliff-edge situation."
    It's time for May to pull the emergency brake and extend article 50 , "the negotiation period"
    The reason why a no-deal Brexit is not going to happen has nothing to do with there being a majority in parliament against it. Parliament has no say in stopping the inexorable progress of article 50, which will take us out of the EU at the end of March this year.

    Rather, it is the instinct for self-preservation that will make the government pull the emergency brake in the end and ask Brussels for more time - as it can do at any moment up until the end of March.

    revoke A.50, someday, any day now ...

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
    by Cat on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 12:51:37 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Usefulness for insurance and acceptable as assurance still in doubt ...

    Brexit: EU offers reassurances to May, says it wants temporary backstop

    European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council president Donald Tusk have released a letter offering clarifications to the UK's Withdrawal Agreement, stating Brussels "does not wish to see the backstop enter into force" and confirming its determination to see it replaced.

    In the letter Mr Juncker and Mr Tusk say the Withdrawal Agreement "represents a fair compromise and aims to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union".

    The letter says the European Council position is that if the Irish backstop were triggered, it "would only apply temporarily, unless and until it is superseded by a subsequent agreement that ensures that a hard border is avoided".

    by Oui on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 12:31:30 PM EST
    Theresa May urges MPs to vote for withdrawal agreement after EU 'assurances' Irish backstop would be 'temporary' | Belfast Telegraph |

    Mrs May said the EU had agreed to a "fast track process" to agree a new trade deal with the UK after Brexit, and that this made it more likely the backstop will never have to be used.

    A restored Stormont would also have a say on any new EU rules that are added to the backstop.

    Answering questions from journalists, Mrs May said: "You talk about Parliament taking control. What I think is important is that we deliver on the result of the referendum.

    "What I'm concerned about from what we have seen, as I've said in my speech, over the last few days is the real prospect that we could see a, sort of, stymie in Parliament, or Parliament operating, or people in Parliament trying to operate in a way, that frustrates Brexit.

    "We have a duty to deliver Brexit and that's what I and the Government want to do, and it is what we are going to do.

    "I want MPs to recognise that as well."

    by Oui on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 12:45:16 PM EST
    Given that Stormont is in worse deadlock than Westminster (in that Stormont is not in session and won't be in the foreseeable future), that's a statement that can only considered to be some sick joke. Or at least it would if only it's utter lack of relation to any known reality makes it standard for the Govt.

    keep to the Fen Causeway
    by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 03:37:36 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Are people still listening to what she says?
    by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 03:43:20 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Reminders me of diary many moons ago with in title Kabuki theatre performance by British BrExit actors. 🎭
    by Oui on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 04:23:47 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Only in a last-few-pages-of-an-HP-Lovecraft-novel kind of a way.
    by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 04:42:40 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Briefly listened to discussions on BBC and Sky News between MPs with opposing views. Useless and not going anywhere ... inherent contradictions primarily due to lack of knowledge of the EU principles of Four Freedoms. Shameful! Not serving the people of their constituencies. The split in the UK is present from the very beginning entering the EU under Ted Heath.

    The main arguments is based on dream of full independence ... economic glory and absent from regulations written in Brussels. Indeed, a trade treaty on terms dictated by US corporate power will be swift. A treaty with the EU will see further bitter negotiations ... no swift result. 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 plus the nations of the Commonwealth.

    by Oui on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 08:03:49 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Assuming the Irish American lobby doesn't put the kibosh on even that!
    by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 09:30:08 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    A few days ago I watched a documentary by a Flemish journalist visiting Belfast on both sides of the separation wall during the days of the Orange Marches and its preparation. I was shockingly surprised as there was no peace, just a truce. Activists and militias on both sides, no place to live and rear children.
    by Oui on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 10:29:58 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    After several hundred years of low to hot conflict and violence a truce is a major step forward.

    She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
    by ATinNM on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 05:59:24 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    In my life I got just a brief glimpse of the destruction and aftermath of the German occupation during the Great War 1940-45. The Netherlands as a nation and its people had to rebuild homes, schools, roads and infrastructure. After the Allied victory, people were quite hopeful although poor and without any means to survive. It took a generation and in the fall of 1960 with the election of President Kennedy the people in Europe were elated. The pleasure was short lived due to the assassination and the entry of war in Southeast Asia. The communist upheaval also effected the former colony of the Dutch: Indonesia.

    It's clear the Irish have a religious conflict, similar to all others across the globe. The nations of mainland Europe founded the European Union to rebuild on the principle of peace - see the founding fathers of the EEC. The aggressive expansion into the former Soviet satellite states, so called "New Europe", has weakened not strengthened the union. The Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld administration and now the Trump administration attempt to undermine the economic might of the EU. The UK made a choice, well a slim majority led  and misled by British Conservatives, made a choice for BrExit. They believe to be better off as a nation closer to the United States than to mainland Europe. What I read between the lines and watch in debates on the networks has truly amazed me. The British people and its leadership were not integrated into the EU, we don't speak the same language. The MPs have no idea what Europe and the principles of the Four Freedoms  stand for. It's a choice to be made, a compromise for survival as a nation with ones neighbours.

    A failed integration, not willing to compromise and have the best of both your country and the economics of scale within Europe.  Short-sightedness of politics ... playing games instead of taking responsibility and lead a nation. A call for duty ... the parliamentarians and the Tory ministers of #10 went AWOL.

    by Oui on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 06:40:12 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    As I posted yesterday ... no light at the end of the tunnel.

    With such a major defeat, PM Theresa May has lost all legitimacy as a leader of Great Britain. She can place a call to Brussels, no one will pick up the phone.

    London is left in chaos.

    PM May will survive the no confidence vote because the Tories want to remain [yes!]  in power. Anything but Corbyn ...

    PM Theresa May must stand down. The EU will not renegotiate with anyone without a clear mandate from UK Parliament. None is forthcoming. Time HAS run out, to delay the March 29 deadline is pointless. It's done, it's over.

    Too bad no one in Westminster realizes what has just passed. Truly, the British live isolated  on an island. A failed integration within mainland Europe.

    by Oui on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 08:13:45 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    You need to read the statements coming out of Leaver's mouths.

    Boris Johnson claims government defeat gives May 'massive mandate' to renegotiate Brexit

    DUP claims government defeat will strengthen May's hand if she demands changes from EU

    They think they're winning.

    She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

    by ATinNM on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 09:30:41 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Gareth Johnson's departure takes the total number of Conservative government resignations over Brexit to 13 ...

    New Tory Brexiteer leadership forming with David Davis and Dominic Raab?

    Government whip resigns over the backstop on the eve of the Brexit vote | Journal IE |

    Gareth Johnson stated:

      "The 'backstop', contained in the agreement, gives our country no clear, unilateral path out of the European Union and ensures we will be fettered in our ability to negotiate trade deals with other nations in our future.

      Like you, I am not only a Conservative but I am also a committed Unionist and I cannot accept the additional regulatory compliance required of Northern Ireland that would set it apart from the rest of the United Kingdom."

    by Oui on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 02:34:49 PM EST
    by Oui on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 10:48:35 PM EST
    "Theresa May urges MPs to 'take a second look' at her deal"?
    Rejecting my deal could lead to 'no Brexit', warns May
    'catastrophic and unforgivable breach of trust' if UK remains in EU
    -else -
    MPs are expected to demand that a 'no deal' Brexit be taken off [?] the table.

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
    by Cat on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 11:14:14 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    A lazy man's article - opinion by former Dutch correspondent Joris Luyendijk covering the Middle East. From 2011 until 2017 he was stationed in London working for The Guardian.

    A polite request from Europe: wake us up when you know what you want from Brexit | The Guardian |

    That the British political and media establishment is engrossed by this week's edition of that long-running psychodrama called Brexit is forgivable; it is their country, and the episode promises to be an action-packed one. But for many Europeans, the meaningful vote is just more of the same: the Brits still don't know what they want ...


    This refusal to live in the real world made the victory for the leave camp possible in the first place, and it has continued to be the state of affairs in Britain in September 2016, or in July 2017 or indeed in January 2019. So forgive Europeans for suppressing a yawn when they are asked once again to take an interest in a vote that will not bring any further clarity in the only question that matters: have the Brits made up their minds?

    Yes, this week's events may lead to the fall of Theresa May's pathetically inept and casually mendacious government. So what? The alternative is a Labour party whose leader stopped talking straight the moment he got to power ...

    Meanwhile the billionaire-owned and -controlled Brexit press continues to spread its lies, distortions and fantasies, building up the politicians who echo them.

    by Oui on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 05:44:29 PM EST
    Indication of mood in Europe:

    "Better a horrible ending than unending horror."

    Head of the German Chamber of Commerce. Uncertainty is worse for business.

    A 'hard Brexit' could halve EU exports to Britain, German study claims | CNBC |

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 09:30:37 AM EST
    Pretty funny, coming from the German Chamber of Commerce.

    I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
    by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 09:40:27 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Economics of a calculated risk!  :) Frankfurt stands to gain ...

    London to lose $900 billion to Frankfurt due to Brexit, German finance group claims | CNBC - Dec. 4, 2018 |
    Letter from London: City bankers' spouses block Brexodus | Politico - April 2018 |

    City unites in call for urgent Brexit transition deal | Reuters  - 2 hrs ago |

    LONDON (Reuters) - Britain must urgently come up with a new plan to avoid leaving the European Union without a deal in just over 70 days' time and destabilize markets, finance leaders said on Tuesday.


    UK and EU regulators have set out contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit hitting parts of the financial market, but McGuinness said smaller firms would not be ready in time.

    Continued uncertainty after Tuesday's vote will mean that banks, insurers and asset managers will press ahead with opening new hubs in the bloc by March.

    "The result this evening does not change the outlook for the City," said Omar Ali, UK financial services leader at consultants EY.

    Financial firms have already announced plans to move 800 billion pounds in assets from Britain due to Brexit, EY said.

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 09:59:48 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    From your link:
    A 52-year-old professor who teaches at one of London's most prestigious universities, and is married to a senior female banker, said he would find it difficult to leave London.

    "I wouldn't have a problem moving per se, the challenge is finding a city that replicates London's main qualities: good jobs, great schools, plenty of real estate options, unrivalled public transport," he said.

    Have they considered Frankfurt?
    by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 10:04:36 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    A divorce looming ... the personal side. ;)
    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 10:12:15 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    I should add <snark> to that. And laughable rather than funny.

    Meaning I don't think the German C of C is in favour of a horrible end to the unending horror that is the euro.

    I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

    by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 02:51:51 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    German banks and exporting austerity. Between corporate power of a reunited Germany and the former Prime Minister of tax haven Luxemburg, Jean-Claude Juncker, a lot of damage has been done to the European Union. Not the € per se.
    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 03:18:41 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    BBC Live! Latest as confidence vote looms.

    Conservative MP and Leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom says the PM now wants to hear senior parliamentarians' "constructive ideas that are negotiable with the European Union, that will help get this deal over the line".

    She says it is clear that the Brexit deal as a whole "wasn't necessarily being rejected" but "there are particular aspects of the deal" that some MPs find problematic.

    She adds it would be "perfectly possible" for the EU to add their reassurance over the controversial Irish backstop into the withdrawal agreement.

    [Also Great Britain has an echo chamber of dreamers - Oui]

    EP shows support for Michel Barnier

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 09:46:20 AM EST
    Shane Ross expects checks on lorries crossing Irish Border in no-deal Brexit | Irish Times - 12 hrs ago |

    Minister for Transport Shane Ross admitted that there would be checks on lorries coming into the Republic of Ireland from the UK via Northern Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    "I would anticipate that there would be checks," Mr Ross told reporters at a briefing on the Government's latest plans to deal with the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    The Minister was answering a question about whether a lorry carrying agri-food produce from Scotland into the Republic via Northern Ireland would face border checks.

    "Well no," said Tánaiste Simon Coveney, intervening after Mr Ross answered, saying that the Border would be dealt with through the divorce deal, just hours before the UK parliament overwhelmingly rejected it.

    Mr Coveney said that the Government had "deliberately not" gone into contingency plans for dealing with the Border in a no-deal scenario because the UK had not voted on the plan.


    Checks at Irish, UK and French ports "could provoke a difficult situation" for the €21bn worth of goods that rely on the landbridge for €21 bn worth of trade with the EU.

    Mr Ross said he was satisfied that the shipping sector "can respond quickly" to meet demands for further capacity on direct sea routes with the EU.

    The new Irish Ferries vessel WB Yeats would be "pivotal" in creating more capacity, he said.

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 10:09:51 AM EST
    ... French ports?

    I suppose this is to stop the UK using the open Irish border as a loophole to export to the EU.

    Which amounts to prima facie suspicion on any Irish exports to France... Nasty.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 03:44:54 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The Europeans are witnessing a political crisis in London with an open end.

    The mood amongst EU leaders is to bite the apple of a hard Brexit and move on into WTO ruled trade. Businesses will fall into a legal jungle on contracts for deals and trade already made. The large corporations will have their contingency plans in place, the smaller businesses will have a costly problem for repairs and expensive advisors.

    The world is already in turmoil with the twitter presidency in the White House. Trump, his administration and U.S. Congress will primarily look at sanctioning Western European business due to investments in the Nordstream 2 pipeline. And let's not forget the scrapping of the Iran nuclear deal and Congress looking to sanction any foreign company involved in trade or commercial ties.

    US Ambassador Richard Grenell threatens German firms over Russian pipeline
    Low-cost airline Norwegian Air has a 737MAX passenger plane grounded in Shiraz for weeks

    ... U.S. sanctions prevent replacement parts being sent to fix it. Europeans are getting tired of nationalist MeFirst! ideology when the EU is based on multicultural and multilateral policy. In the long-run it's not a manner to handle any international issue. After 9/11 and the George Bush catastrophe, the law of the jungle has been put in place. Flouting International law and treaties, and forcing a strand of pure capitalism even after the banks were rescued with a cost for mainstreet, hard working people.

    A no-deal BrExit in the offing ... extension of Art. 50 needs unanimity of the 27 member states of the EU.

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 10:41:59 AM EST
    Animation Brexit negotiations (English)

    Brexit explained: what happens when the UK leaves the EU?

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 11:30:28 AM EST
    Nothing out of the ordinary ... no constitution, it's worked for the Empire through the ages from Knighthood [;)] through great wars today's era of Enlightenment and Fraternity. True, the British hate to be invaded ... immigration broke the Union nationalists say ...

    From a comparative perspective, we have what is known as an 'unwritten constitution', although some prefer to describe it as 'uncodified' on the basis that many of our laws of a constitutional nature are in fact written down in Acts of Parliament or law reports of court judgments. This aspect of the British constitution, its unwritten nature, is its most distinguishing characteristic.

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 11:45:46 AM EST
    Negotiating UK-EU deal talking with earplugs in
    No trust and lack of comprehension
    Both the UK and EU living on different planets

    EC president Tusk signalled it's time for Great Britain to cancel BrExit
    Brussels is NOT ready to renegotiate the WA
    EU says clearly to London you need to come up with a plan

    Londoners put the blame on Europe for not being flexible
    MPs argue it's the EU which failed UK membership

    EU negotiator Barnier tells PM May there is room for talks ...
    Just scrap some of your "red lines" ...

    ... the EU and UK's future relationship if Theresa May ditches some of her negotiating red lines.

    Speaking the morning after MPs rejected the prime minister's deal, Michel Barnier said that the European Council "unanimously" agreed and had "always said that if the UK chooses to shift its red lines in the future, and if it makes that choice to be more ambitious and to go beyond a simple free trade agreement, then the EU will be immediately ready to go hand in hand with that development and give a favourable response".

    Ms May has said she wants to end freedom of movement, leave the single market, customs union, and jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice - limiting the scope of her planned future trade deal with the EU and ending frictionless trade.

    Mr Barnier suggested that there could be no renegotiation of the actual withdrawal agreement, however - which contains the controversial "backstop" hated by so many Tory MEPs and Ms May's allies in the DUP.

      Michel Barnier voices the same view as EC president Donald Tusk: "Stay in the common market and accept leniency on freedom of movement".


    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 11:58:42 AM EST
    PM May and the Tory party of NO!

    After the massive defeat, a leader of government should reach across party lines. Even I sports today, one doesn't defend on his/her own turf but utilizes a forward defending. Not so for a weak leader who is more afraid of her own position. Theresa May likes to pull back where she is comfortable with like-minded persons. ToryFirst! is her slogan as Prime Minister. It will only lead to further defeat and chaos in the meantime.

    Theresa May omits Jeremy Corbyn from cross-party Brexit talks | The Guardian |

    Theresa May's plans for cross-party co-operation on Brexit were condemned after it emerged that she was not seeking to involve Jeremy Corbyn despite Tuesday's historic defeat of her plan.

    Andrea Leadsom admitted Labour's leader had not been invited to cross-party talks and indicated that Corbyn needed to say what he wanted from Brexit before being invited to speak to the prime minister.


    Leadsom told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that Corbyn had not been invited because he was primarily interested in forcing a general election instead of striking a Brexit deal.

    ... Further criticism of the government's plan for cross-party talks came from Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP first minister of Scotland, who said that May would have to review her "red lines" for cross-party talks to be successful.

    "If none of PM's red lines change, what progress can she possibly make?" she wrote on Twitter.

    No 10 said on Tuesday, after the vote, that the same principles that governed May's Brexit deal would be applied to a future deal.

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 01:37:14 PM EST
    +++ EU leaders react to UK's Brexit vote - live updates +++ | DW |

    •    Politicians across the EU demanded that the UK provide clarity on Brexit after lawmakers in London voted down a draft divorce deal

    •    Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was still "time to negotiate" but British Prime Minister Theresa May would need to come up with a proposal

    •    No one wants a "no deal Brexit," but the option is getting closer, said the EU's economy commissioner

    11:47 The EU states could agree to extend the Brexit deadline if the UK "provides the reasons for such an extension," said the EU Commission chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas. He added that the agreed terms of the UK's departure could not be reworked, but left some leeway on more peripheral issues, such as a political declaration on trade after Brexit.

    11:33 EU Commission said that the UK has not yet requested any extension of the Brexit deadline as March 29 looms.

    11:22 Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said moving the March 29 Brexit deadline would only be considered if London suggested an orderly strategy and a plan.

    11:13 The EU can influence the UK's position by softening its demands on the so-called Irish backstop, said the UK ambassador to Berlin, Sir Sebastian Wood.

    10:46 The UK could ask for a postponement of the Brexit end date in order to get a deal through its parliament, said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. The EU would be ready to consider it in good faith, but would require concrete proposals and concessions from London.  

    Opinion: Brexit likely to be Britain's greatest disaster

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 01:56:23 PM EST
    It's not "courage" that UK gov is wanting.

    It is nice to find that EU gov "surrogates" have taken initiative to proffer a meaning for the "negotiation period" --as distinct from "transition period" stipulated by the withdrawal agreement-- as defined by expiration date, as yet altered by EU-UK agreement.

    Surely UK gov will want to debate the advantage of altering that date, if the expiration date of the "transition period" cannot be advanced, too.

    If a so-called "extension" is taken up, EU-UK gov afford themselves less time to strike ahh mutually beneficial ETA. And that would appear counter-productive change to proceedings, given past performance of the parties seeking an orderly resolution.

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

    by Cat on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 02:53:35 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Tweeting alongside an image of a blue egg, emblazoned with yellow stars, Mr Verhofstadt wrote: "Let's see how many pro-Europeans are out there  #IamEuropean #GenerationEurope #WorldRecord

    His post has attracted 5,076 retweets and 14,336 likes so far. While some declared their allegiance to the Brussels club, others tweeted Mr Verhofstadt saying: "Love Europe hate the E.U. #brexit

    This tweet is NOT helpful and has BACKFIRED in London.

    So little time and positions are truly irreconcilable. EU/UK NO DEAL!

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 03:22:04 PM EST
    My retweet would be more like "Love EU hate Verhofstadt"...
    But actually I agree with Verhofstadt. Extending Article 50, rather than simply revoking it, would be unconscionable interference by the UK in EU elections.

    And last time I checked, foreign interference in elections was generally considered a bad thing.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 03:48:27 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Really all sides agree to preserve the Union. The contradictio in terminis lies in the fact each is talking about their own union: the British Union Jack and the European Union Four Freedoms. These two are incompatible as all of us have known from the very beginning. I still hear Arlene Foster acclaiming the Irish border backstop has got to go! Foster and her 10 DUP votes kept the Tories in power and the DUP as a force May listens to. A build-in catastrophe jut to keep Theresa May in as PM after her election loss in 2017. An utter failure from the start to the bitter end.

    A quick search on my computers got me these not so recent comments here @EuroTrib ...

    Steve Baker, the ex-Brexit minister hell-bent on torpedoing May's Chequers plan

    After the fiasco of David Cameron, Tory leader and PM Theresa May set red lines which blocked any reasonable deal with Europe.

    GFA Implies No Hard Border

    Brexit threatens Good Friday agreement, Irish PM warns | The Guardian - March 14, 2018 |

    DUP leader Arlene Foster says scrap the backstop, the EU has guaranteed no hard border ...

    More utter nonsense from Brexiteer and failed negotiator David Davies ...

    'Now the EU HAS TO LISTEN' - David Davis claims Brexit deal is STILL ON

    Related reading ...

    Brexit: A look back at the journey two years since the vote

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 03:29:36 PM EST
    The international press too watched in horror ...

    'Great theatre - but tragic': Europe's media reacts in horror to May defeat | The Guardian |

    Europe's media and commentators had few words harsh enough for the mess in which the UK - and Europe - now find themselves after Theresa May's deal suffered a crushing defeat in the House of Commons.

    In the Netherlands, De Volkskrant columnist Bert Wagendorp was particularly brutal: "It is almost certainly the case that in recent European history, absent a threat of actual war, no country has landed itself in such complete and utter chaos," he wrote.

    "The oldest parliament in the world after Iceland's is in one hell of a state. Brexit has split a once stable country in two and transformed its politicians into lemmings, throwing themselves off the white cliffs into the sea. It's great theatre - but tragic."

    Historic naval battle near the Dutch coast of Scheveningen [Ter Heijde]  

    Writing in the Spanish daily El País, Lluís Bassets warned that Tuesday's vote had been far from decisive, despite the scale of May's defeat, and worse could be to come.

      "To the misfortune of the British, and perhaps also the Europeans, this Tuesday was a historic day that does not preclude more historic days - all accompanied by the tragic storm clouds that tend to shadow history."

      Bassets said "the great shredding machine that is Brexit" was still hard at work, "fed by uncertainty, bitterness and rancour - the three dismal feelings that May evoked in her defeat speech, and the three evil spirits that only grow with each day that Brexit remains unresolved".

    In Sweden's Aftonbladet, Wolfgang Hansson said May's historic defeat flowed from "one of the biggest mistakes a British prime minister has ever made: David Cameron's promise in 2013 to hold a referendum on Britain's EU membership".

    That decision had "divided the British people into two tribes that over time have become bitter enemies".

    Curtains up for the next act of Westminster kabuki theatre ...

    #10 Rules out customs union as  'cross-party' talks begin
    PM May before Commons: "I will NOT revoke art. 50."  

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 07:08:36 PM EST
    Seems like ages ago ...

    Key Words | Putin | Wall Street | City of London | Farage | Secrecy | Cambridge Analytica | Facebook | White voters |

    More shit to come ...

    [Interview] Bannon's The Movement to launch with Januari summit | EU Observer |
    Belgian politician Mischael Modrikamen Steve Bannon's main ally in uniting Europe's right | Times of Israel |
    'The GDR still exists, but today in Wallonia' | De Groene Amsterdammer |

    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 07:30:04 PM EST
    Next act ... Theresa May survived with a majority of 19 votes which is a swing of 10 MPs. Labour and Corbyn sitting on the fence for another week ... Chaos Endures.
    by Oui on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 07:54:34 PM EST

    Germany and Europe react to crisis in London | DW |
    French govt activates plan to prepare for no-deal Brexit | France24 |

    In the country of Theresa May ally Mark Rutte ...

    Dutch Parliament refuses to agree with FM Bloks Brexit's Emergency Act, which partly sidelines it | De Volkskant - NL |
    Dutch MPs against emergency law for no-deal Brexit | Dutch News - EN |

    by Oui on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 11:47:13 AM EST
    13:29 The German Foreign Office says it is prepared for any Brexit outcome. "We will intensify our preparations for a disorderly Brexit and want to protect our citizens and companies from the negative effects as far as possible."

    by Oui on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 03:47:33 PM EST
    Michael Russell@Feorlean - MSP for Argyll & Bute

    Hugely privileged to have sat next to Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern at @KEconomicConf dinner last night and heard first hand about the GFA process from one of its architects. Also fascinated by his views on the chaos of #Brexit

    Second Brexit referendum 'very dicey scene', says Bertie Ahern | Irish Times |

    Michael Russell of SNP tells forum Ireland is in control of own destiny unlike Scotland | Irish Times |

    Meanwhile, a prominent member of the Scottish parliament, Michael Russell, said a remarkable capacity for self-delusion in Britain had led many Brexiteers, including former chancellor Nigel Lawson who chaired the Leave campaign, to "cheerfully suggest that the solution to the Irish Border problem is for Ireland to leave the EU and rejoin the UK".

    Mr Russell said: "In other words, the solution to a problem created by them is to ensure that others simply implement the same crazy prescription that has led to the disaster."

    Lord Nigel Lawson hopes Irish Republic realises its "mistake" and rejoins UK following Brexit (Feb. 24, 2016)

    <cerebral conflict zone>

    Ditch Brexit, German leaders urge UK in paean to ale and milky tea | The Guardian |

    A group of influential German politicians and business leaders including the woman primed to take over from Angela Merkel as chancellor have urged Britain to stay in the EU as Brexit looms.

    Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who became leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union last month, joined more than two dozen political, business and cultural figures in penning an open letter to the Times, arguing "from the bottom of our hearts" that Britain should not leave the bloc.

    by Oui on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 08:10:35 PM EST
    " <cerebral conflict zone> "

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
    by Cat on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 10:29:11 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    by Oui on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 08:11:22 PM EST
    Everyone in Europe has gotten to know #Bercow ... authenticity

    Orrr-duhhh: Speaker Bercow presides over MPs as if they were unruly children

    The speaker of the House of Commons is usually taken for granted, except for those rare moments when Britain is having a legislative meltdown and parliament gets centre stage.

    And for the Brexit crisis, you might say that the current speaker, John Bercow, is made to ORRR-DUHHH.

    As a rambunctious parliament is grappling with the contentious issue, Bercow is trying to stay above the fray even as he plays a major role in shaping the debate.

    With his stentorian voice, assertive ways and unapologetic manners, he's playing a major role shaping the debate over the UK's troubled withdrawal from the European Union.

    But along the way, he has ruffled some feathers in the government of Theresa May. He's even been compared to the devil by a tabloid newspaper.

    The 55-year-old Bercow, who has been speaker since 2009, determines which amendments will be voted on, who will be called upon to speak, and deciding when to use his commanding voice to demand "order".

    Or as he sometimes pronounces it, "ORRR-DUHHH! ORRR-DUHHH!"  

    Unterhaus-Sprecher John Bercow hat auch heute wieder eine sensationelle Krawatte gewählt | Neue Zürcher Zeitung |

    by Oui on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 08:33:24 PM EST
    The Empire of Hope and Glory - the privileged few. In the global empire, the Eton apprentices could have one or two failures on the other side of the globe and later show remarkable leadership back in London. The suffering was over there .. today the suffering is over here! #BrexitNow

    Dutch government deny reports they are pushing for concessions on Irish border backstop

    The Netherlands denied on Wednesday a report that it was pushing with Germany for the EU to make further concessions to Britain regarding the border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.

    German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Wednesday, citing diplomatic sources in Brussels, that Germany, the Netherlands and other countries are ready to make further concessions on the "backstop" arrangement to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

    Such concessions would only apply if Ireland approves, the newspaper added.

      Gallipoli Campaign

      "Y Beach", the Scottish Borderer cried,
      While panting up the steep hillside,
      "Y Beach!
      To call this thing a beach is stiff,
      It's nothing but a bloody cliff.
      Why beach?"'

      [Author: Jack Churchill]

    by Oui on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 09:06:57 PM EST
    Is one group or another joining the backstop debate? #BrExit

    Northern Ireland: Suspected car bomb explodes in Londonderry | DW |

    A suspected car bomb exploded in the Northern Irish city of Londonderry late on Saturday, police have said.

    "As far as we know no one injured," police wrote on Facebook.

    A photo posted by the police's Twitter account showed what appeared to be a car in flames outside of a courthouse near the city center.

    Officers said they were evacuating people from the location of a second suspected car bomb elsewhere in the city.


    PSNI receives warning before car bomb explodes in Derry | The Irish Times |

    by Oui on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 07:48:38 AM EST
    I admit, I am not confident as to how NI civil society will respond to this particular provocation or future incidents. After several months monitoring Belfast Telegraph, I am still not fluent in psycho and have observed that DUP "opposition" party figureheads are weak, have not mobilizing constituents' purported support for REMAIN.

    All is not lost.

    In a reasonable NI world, local law enforcement would accept responsibility to investigate and prosecute such crimes. A show of competence in executing "rule of law" supposedly demonstrates to investors in NI industries NI prudential safety.

    EU27 response? 1. do nothing, or 2. encourage FDI in NI

    In a "go full DRPK world", local law enforcement would reject responsibility for such crimes (do nothing) and delegate police action to UK gov (escalate violence). A show of incompetence in executing "rule of law" supposedly demonstrates to investors in NI industries NI prudential risk. (cue rating agencies)

    EU27 response? 1. facilitate NI immigration (economic and political refugee status), NI "frontier worker" opportunity 2. encourage FDI in IE

    Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

    by Cat on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 10:05:38 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The Guardian view on Brexit and Ireland: a danger to peace  | Editorial |

      That past, where symbols summon deadly emotions, has been revived by English nationalists in the Tory party who appear comfortably ignorant of the Troubles. Erasing the border in Ireland, once dotted with watchtowers and checkpoints, was necessary. But Brexit put the deadly issues of the Irish border and sovereignty back into mainstream debate. Dissident republicans have been blamed by the police for the van bomb attack on a Derry courthouse. Their ideological patrons have long recognised Brexit's potential to reignite the conflict, with one quoted in academic Marisa McGlinchey's new study Unfinished Business as saying it was "the best chance we've had since 1916".

    Derry on alert: Police respond to reports of abandoned vehicle, homes evacuated

    by Oui on Tue Jan 22nd, 2019 at 09:03:47 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    by Oui on Tue Jan 22nd, 2019 at 06:49:18 PM EST
    by Oui on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 03:52:42 PM EST
    One wonders what the best tactical approach is now for current UK citizen residents. A hard exit seems likely to trigger real and extended economic and social chaos. Chaos of the type that involves cold and wet and hunger. And violence.

    Perhaps a good tactical move would be to rent a house somewhere in the EU for the next six months. And take a chunk of cash.


    by asdf on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 05:03:16 PM EST
    Set up residence even if it is temporary in a rural community (costs) in an EU country ...  check if you will be covered by healthcare. In a rural community best chance for social cohesion.
    by Oui on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 06:18:00 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    And get citizenship as soon as you can. I did it a few months before the referendum.
    by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jan 24th, 2019 at 07:21:40 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 29th, 2019 at 08:31:31 PM EST
    That would be: Explaining the EU to outsiders

    by Frank Schnittger Mon Sep 29th, 2014 at 10:48:55 AM EST

    by Bernard on Tue Jan 29th, 2019 at 08:57:25 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    I wanted to point out a series of posts in this diary. Due to the large number of comments and thus length of thread, the normal link fails to pinpoint the location.

    I found the posts with this link to my first comment and the replies thereafter ..

    Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 01:16:26 PM PDT  

    I will fix the link in the Update ... thx Frank.

    by Oui on Tue Jan 29th, 2019 at 09:28:02 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    by Oui on Sat Feb 2nd, 2019 at 12:24:38 AM EST

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