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by Colman Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 03:23:31 PM EST

Since extending A50 might possibly come up once or twice in the next few weeks this link to the legal decisions on EP seat distribution may be handy:

However, in the event that the United Kingdom is still a Member State of the Union at the beginning of the 2019-2024 parliamentary term, the number of representatives in the European Parliament per Member State taking up office shall be the one provided for in Article 3 of the European Council Decision 2013/312/EU1 until the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Union becomes legally effective. 1

European Council Decision 2013/312/EU of 28 June 2013 establishing the composition of the European Parliament (OJ L 181, 29.6.2013, p. 57). EB/NC/fh 6

Once the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the Union becomes legally effective, the number of representatives in the European Parliament elected in each Member State shall be the one provided for in paragraph 1 of this Article.

All representatives in the European Parliament who fill the additional seats resulting from the difference between the number of seats allocated in the first and second subparagraphs shall take up their seats in the European Parliament at the same time.

There is no legal reason a long extension can’t be done, “just” political ones.


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Yea - I have just raised this issue in the comments here, but was not aware that this possibility was already automatically provided for.

Does this mean that the candidate who comes 4th. in the Dublin constituency doesn't win a seat while the UK s still a member but can take a seat automatically the moment the UK leaves? It could have an impact on how many candidates a party might nominate.  -e.g. FG might go for 2 seats if Dublin remains a 4 seater but run just one candidate if Dublin reverts to 3 seats.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 04:54:01 PM EST
Not sure how that washes out: I'd guess that that is how it would work, I'd check with whoever makes that decision before I swore to it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 06:05:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a weirdly obscure piece of information: lots of people speculating about what would happen when EP and Council have already provided for it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 06:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Irish political parties will be nominating their candidates shortly, and there are often rows about how many candidates they should nominate as nominating too many can result in you loosing a seat you might otherwise have won - because intra-party vote transfers are often only 60% efficient. So, for example, Dublin having 3 or four seats could change a party's candidate nomination strategy.

The Ireland South Constituency is also being increased from 4 to 5, but Laois and Offaly are being added to it to compensate for the lack of increase in the number of seats in the midlands-north-west constituency. So what constituencies are used if the UK is still officially a member, and how do you decide who else would have been elected if the number of seats had been increased?

In practice, two bye elections in Dublin and the South would be required to elect two additional MEPs if the UK leaves. But the dynamics of a single seat bye election are very different from a four/five seat general. Also would the bye-election include Laois Offaly in the South when they would already have voted for candidates in the midlands-north-west constituency?

A mess.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 06:43:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Does this mean that the candidate who comes 4th. in the Dublin constituency doesn't win a seat while the UK s still a member but can take a seat automatically the moment the UK leaves? "

Yes, I suspect so. That was exactly how the "shadow MEPs" of 2009 were elected. Until the ratification process for the Lisbon treaty was done, they stayed in limbo, elected but not seated.

by fjallstrom on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 10:50:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That works if the constituencies are the the same under both seat counts. But the Ireland south constituency was changed to include counties Laois and Offaly to accommodate an extra seat. If you run the election with the current boundaries and seat counts you can't then arbitrarily add another seat as there has to be a minimum proportionality between electorate numbers and seats.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 11:03:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Checking more into 2009, I find that apparently France failed in electing their shadow MEPs, which contributed to the seating of all shadow MEPs being delayed. I don't find any specifics on why they failed or how it was solved (appointment or by-election, most likely).

Though I would suspect that while France's problems are EU's problems, there is a distinct risk that Ireland's problems are Ireland's.

by fjallstrom on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 01:10:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Your link should be corrected - Legal Acts - June 19, 2018.

Decisions establishing the composition of the European Parliament:

European Council Decision 2013/312/EU of 28 June 2013
European Council Decision 2018/937/EU of 28 June 2018

Right to vote and eligibility of British citizens to the European elections? 23-26 May 2018

On June 13th, 2018, the European Parliament approved the reduction of the number of representatives to take the loss of 73 British MEPs into account. The decision was taken by the European Council on June 28th, 2018: of the 73 seats left vacant, 27 will be reassigned to 14 Member states considered slightly under-represented in the European Parliament.

In legal terms however, this question of the right to vote seems more complex than it seems.

However, two different interpretations of the Decision sow doubt on this programmed exit synonymous with loss of voting rights and European eligibility.

On the one hand, the deadline for leaving the Union is not clearly defined in Article 50 TEU. On the other hand, the deadline cited in Art. 2 and 3 of the European Directive 93/109/EC to register on the electoral lists in 1993 could not anticipate the adoption of Article 50 TEU in 2009 and its implementation in 2017.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 07:05:33 PM EST
Thanks. My iPad put 'smart' quotes around the URL - I think there's a setting I need to hunt down.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 12:15:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ha. That will lead to a whole bunch of fascinating (YMMV) permutations, depending on the details of the EU election rules of each member state.

In France, it will be disappointingly simple, because (this time) we have national lists. i.e. a list might get 5 seats initially, and one or two more when the UK leaves.

That will add to the fun when ranking lists of course.
With the added permutation that the UK may end up not leaving at all...


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 05:42:17 PM EST


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