Thu Oct 24th, 2019 at 06:45:23 PM EST
Long Extension, December Election
"quite a turn-around as Jeremy Corbyn meets obligation of promise made"
[END OF UPDATE]
I have no clue what the EU-27 will decide on Friday, but to extend three months will NOT solve the domestic problems of a dysfunctional House of Commons in a twist with Downing Street 10 and the Boris Brexiteers.
Europe needs to get Brexit done, after long negotiations with Theresa May, her deal blocked by the ERG Group, it's time to get a deal done and start the most difficult trade negotiations. Time for a general election has gone, whatever the outcome, little will change and worst case the UK gets out with no-deal after all.
EU to decide on Brexit extension -- but then what? | DW |
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is waiting on word from the other 27 EU heads of state and government on whether the October 31 Brexit date can be delayed.
"Alas we cannot now know what the EU will do in response to the request from Parliament -- I stress it wasn't my request -- to ask for a delay," Johnson told the House of Commons.
Option 1: Extension, no election, try to finalize deal
Continued below the fold ...
The quickest way out is for Boris Johnson's minority government to try to push its existing Brexit deal through Parliament. However, that will require at least some opposition support because the Conservatives fall well short of passing a deal by themselves.
The deal risks either not passing Parliament, or being altered in ways the EU might object to, which could also scupper the deal.
The benefit to choosing this route, from the point of view of many MPs, would be completing the first stage of the Brexit process before returning to the voters in a general election. Almost all sitting Conservative and Labour MPs pledged during 2017's campaign to take the UK out of the EU, in one way or another, in order to fulfill the referendum decision.
Johnson has said he would prefer a general election to this, but he may not have a choice. An election campaign would last in the region of five to six weeks, so a shorter extension would leave no time for this.
If Labour wins a majority outright, or various opposition parties unite to form an anti-Tory coalition, then the way forward becomes more murky.
Corbyn's party, if elected, is pledging to renegotiate a different, softer deal with the EU, and then to put that deal to the people in a referendum, against the option to remain in the EU.
Each stage of this process would surely take several months -- assuming Europe's patience endured. But the added delay would be sweetened by the potential prospect of the EU retaining all 28 of its members.
A Corbyn win and months of delay ... delusional thinking! Not an option the EU-27 with Macron leading, would be able to accept.
PM Boris Johnson will give MPs more time to debate Brexit deal if they agree to Christmas election | The Independent |
Boris Johnson has offered MPs more time to debate his Brexit deal in parliament if opposition parties grant him a general election ahead of Christmas.
The prime minister appealed to Jeremy Corbyn to support a motion for an early election next week, as Mr Johnson cannot call a poll without the support of two thirds of MPs. But Labour is divided over whether to support the plan, as the party is trailing in the polls.
It comes as Mr Johnson faced a battle to get his Queen's Speech passed today, but will not quit even if MPs vote it down, No 10 has said. It would be the first time a government had lost its legislative programme since 1924 - when PM Stanley Baldwin was forced to resign.