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EU-UK Relations: Trading Blows

by Oui Tue Oct 8th, 2019 at 01:42:37 PM EST

Merkel: EU agreement on Brexit deal 'overwhelmingly unlikely' | DW |

German Chancellor Angela Merkel described the likelihood of the European Union ratifying UK Prime Minister Johnson's Brexit deal as "overwhelmingly unlikely" in a call between the two leaders on Tuesday morning, according to a Downing Street source.

Continued below the fold ...


Downing Street has neither confirmed nor denied the Johnson-Merkel call. The German chancellor's office admitted the call took place, however it did not provide details about it.

Merkel reportedly said for a deal to be agreed upon, Northern Ireland would have to stay in the EU customs union forever, which Johnson is not prepared to agree to.

The news comes following the publication of remarks from an anonymous government source which claim that Johnson will do "all sorts of things" to prevent a further delay to Brexit.

According to the source, quoted in the British Spectator magazine, Johnson does not want a no-deal Brexit but he believes that negotiations with the EU are failing, following frosty responses from Brussels on Monday to his proposed withdrawal deal.

"If this deal dies in the next few days, then it won't be revived," the source said.

Brexit: Deal essentially impossible, No 10 source says after PM-Merkel call | BBC News - Breaking |

The key focus of the new UK plans is to replace the so-called backstop - the policy negotiated by Theresa May and the EU to prevent a hard border returning to the island of Ireland - which has long been a sticking point.

After presenting them, government sources hoped the sides might be able to enter an intense 10-day period of talks almost immediately, but a number of senior EU figures, including Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, warned they did not form the basis for deeper negotiations - even if they believed a deal could still be done.

The No 10 source said Tuesday morning's phone call - which was not discussed at cabinet - had been a "clarifying moment", adding: "Talks in Brussels are close to breaking down, despite the fact that the UK has moved a long way."

Comment from my diary ...

AG Cox: 'This Is a Dead Parliament'

PM Calls On EU to Engage In Talks

Revealed: the EU's point-by-point rejection of Johnson's Brexit plan | The Guardian |

The European Union's full devastating point-by-point rejection of Boris Johnson's Brexit proposals for the Irish border has been revealed in documents obtained by the Guardian.

Leaked documents lay bare the scale of the multiple faults highlighted to David Frost, the prime minister's chief negotiator, during the recent talks.

The disclosure follows the prime minister's claim on Monday that he had not yet heard the EU's thoughts on the legal text tabled by Downing Street, under which a customs border would be reimposed on the island of Ireland.

[...]

EU sources scoffed at claims coming out of Downing Street that a "counter-offer" could be expected from Brussels in the coming days. "It is the UK that wants to replace the backstop - and that is our solution," said one senior EU diplomat.

On Monday, the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, met with the Dutch foreign minister, Stef Blok, who tweeted: "Frank & honest discussion today with Steve Barclay. As good neighbours do.

"Important questions still remain on UK Brexit proposals and more realism and clarity necessary this week. Full support for Michel Barnier."

An EU commission spokeswoman said the EU27 remained of the opinion that the UK had failed to offer an alternative to the Irish backstop, which would avoid a hard border by keeping Northern Ireland in the single market and the EU's customs territory.

And, in an interview with Le Monde, chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier warned that if London "does not come back with new proposals on the two serious problems we have indicated to them, I cannot see how we can move forward".

No 10 continues to deflect blame for Brexit impasse on to EU  
PM calls on EU to 'thrash out' Brexit objections | BBC News - 3 hrs ago |

Display:
Pretty clear the Tories are setting-up the EU to be the Bad Guy, poisoning UK/EU relations for decades ... if not generations.
 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 8th, 2019 at 04:00:41 PM EST
What were the opt-out all about then?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Oct 8th, 2019 at 04:40:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Negotiating strategy:

  1. Negotiate in apparent good faith, reach agreement based on compromises by both sides, subsequently refuse to endorse what you just negotiated.

  2. Claim that a new round of negotiation needs to start from the agreed compromise position, but that both sides must move towards your position as a further compromise.
by asdf on Tue Oct 8th, 2019 at 08:00:32 PM EST
Lotta dudes lurking at this URL, I have noticed.

Have you ever planned a "play date" for 2 or more TODDLERS + ADULT parent or CARE GIVER sets? With or without an "app"?

Present a hypothetical CASE solution to conflicts of interests for each party (not party, the other one) to the "compromises".

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Oct 8th, 2019 at 08:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That and epigenetic Vit-D deficiency.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Oct 10th, 2019 at 11:54:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know if vitamins have anything to do with it, but the author seems to be overlooking the point that the EU and the UK already DID negotiate a mutual agreement, with compromises make by BOTH sides, and that it was the UK that was not able to support its end of the agreement.

Whether or not that is a problem with the UK's system of governance system (it is) is one thing, but the fact remains that the warring tribes on both sides initially agreed a compromise, and then one of the tribes backed away.

That is what will be in the history books, not the tabloid newspaper articles and politicians' tweets about who is to blame for what.

by asdf on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 02:57:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Black's Law Dictionary, breach of contract; Article 56-58,60 VCLT
in
A few first principles, Syllabus

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 04:42:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What goes into the history books are the broad, sweeping, influential actions made by a few people. Not the detailed legal arguments made in a courtroom, or even the political editorials in the newspaper or on Twitter.

  • William conquered England.
  • Henry VIII dissolved the monasteries.
  • Oliver Cromwell ultimately won.
  • Churchill and Roosevelt beat Hitler.
  • Johnson saved English independence.
by asdf on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 04:23:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When the scholars write the big tomes on this sordid saga, they'll want to base their findings on primary-source documents--and here is one, flashing right before us. The Downing Street Memo will be a key footnote in the history books; it should have made front-page headlines in the daily broadsheets of history's first draft.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Oct 13th, 2019 at 04:25:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"C" is the code name for Richard Dearlove, head of MI6, the British foreign intelligence service. His "recent talks in Washington" would almost certainly have been with his counterpart, George Tenet, then-director of the CIA. Tenet would have told him about the "perceptible shift in attitude."

Role of Italian intelligence and "witness" Curveball ...

In the beginning was the lie ...
German BND and the Iraq plot of Curveball

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 01:30:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could Article 24 be involved anyway? | Bloomberg - June 25, 2019 |

Liam Fox, the U.K. trade secretary and a Brexiteer, has rejected the approach. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly said Article 24 only applies if two trading partners have already agreed to a trade deal. After Johnson insisted that it could work in a no-deal scenario, Carney spelled it out again on June 26. The EU has repeatedly said that it won't engage in mini-deals if the withdrawal agreement isn't ratified, meaning tariffs would be imposed as well as border checks. WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo in May said there must be a bilateral agreement between the EU and U.K. in order to claim an implementation period under GATT Article XXIV.

    "Once they have an agreement, I think Article 24 could give them some time for implementation of that agreement. But the first question is the agreement itself."

WTO chief says trade barriers between US and Europe are 'last thing we need' | CNBC - 1 day ago |

Azevedo told CNBC that after a no-deal exit the U.K. can immediately default to trading under WTO rules. He warned however that any attempt to invoke an obscure trade law -- Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt) -- to allow continued free trade would fail.

My recent diary ...

NI-Only: Boris As Escape Artist

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 07:24:29 PM EST
Johnson's major U-turn sets up 48 hours to clinch Brexit deal | The Guardian |

Boris Johnson has signalled that he will make a last-ditch U-turn on his plans for the Irish border, setting up 48 hours of intense negotiations that will make or break a Brexit deal.

On a day of rapid movement in talks, EU sources said the prime minister had conceded that there could not be a customs border on the island of Ireland - a critical step away from his previous position.

That came after European ambassadors prompted tentative hope of a deal by giving the green light for what some diplomats described as a "tunnel" discussion in which a small team of negotiators meet for intensive talks to find a break-through moment. The Democratic Unionist party and European Research Group (ERG), a group of rightwing Conservatives, later issued statements promising flexibility, keeping hope alive that Johnson could find support for a new offer in the House of Commons.

Johnson refuses to rule out Northern Ireland staying in the customs union

"I think it would be wrong of me to give a running commentary on the negotiations," Johnson said. "With the greatest possible respect I think, look at everything I've said previously. I think you can draw your own conclusions from that. But let our negotiators get on."

EU, Britain enter intense Brexit talks as UK departure date looms | Reuters |

A diplomat and an EU official said Barnier had told member states that Britain had changed its position to now accept that the proposed replacement to the so-called "backstop" cannot erect a customs border between EU member Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland.

Separately, two senior EU diplomats told Reuters the possible solution could include two elements: keeping Northern Ireland inside the UK's customs regime while also carrying out any customs and regulatory checks together.

Under a recent UK proposal, the regulatory border would run down the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Britain. The sources said they understood that customs checks could be carried out there as well under the plan now under discussion.

DUP vows to kill off Brexit deal if Boris Johnson keeps Northern Ireland in customs union | The Independent |

    Despite the news, Donald Tusk, the European Council president, warned on Friday that current UK proposals were neither "workable" nor "realistic".

    The decision to enter a tunnel came after Mr Barnier briefed EU27 ambassadors on the results of morning's talks. The diplomats, representing EU member states, agreed that signs of movement were promising enough to warrant the "tunnel".

    Taking stock around lunchtime, Michel Barnier told reporters: "Brexit is like climbing a mountain. We need vigilance, determination and patience."



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 08:06:36 PM EST
DUP vows to kill off Brexit deal if Boris Johnson keeps Northern Ireland in customs union

DUP lost their veto when Boris lost the majority.

If Sinn Fein had any sense -- and they don't -- they'd babble the silly oath and then vote to keep the NI cross-border economic ties to the Republic.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 04:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DUP Comments



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 10:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DUP Comments



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 10:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DUP finds itself caught between the devil and the Irish sea | The Guardian |

The Democratic Unionist party (DUP) is facing two options, one bad, the other worse. The trick will be deciding which is which. It can reject the Brexit deal that British and EU negotiators are discussing in Brussels, on the assumption it proposes a border down the Irish Sea.

Rejection would rupture its relations with Boris Johnson and could sink the deal in the Commons, shunt the UK towards no deal, wreck Northern Ireland's economy and add support for a united Ireland.

Or Arlene Foster and her 10 Westminster MPs could endorse the deal and smooth its passage through parliament, then face howls of betrayal from rival unionists who will try to engrave Brexit on the DUP's tombstone.

Foster kept the party's options open in a holding statement last Friday, which reiterated opposition to a backstop or any measure that would "trap" Northern Ireland in the EU. It also urged a "balanced and sensible" deal in Northern Ireland's "long-term" economic and constitutional interests - ambiguous language that left wiggle room. "We will judge any outcome reached by the prime minister against the criteria above," it concluded.

Less ambiguous language came on Saturday from the party's Nigel Dodds, who told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica: "No, it cannot work, because Northern Ireland has to remain fully part of the UK customs union."



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 10:24:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 01:50:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The risk of Loyalist paramilitaries reigniting the conflict in the North is less than that of Republicans, but still non-negligible. I'm not clear who has carried out some of the attacks in the last few months.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 02:10:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Oct 11th, 2019 at 08:07:48 PM EST
I suspect this is when the Leavers expect the EU to give in and agree to their demands.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Oct 12th, 2019 at 04:43:52 PM EST
'Pathway' to Brexit deal hits usual obstacles on the Irish border | The Guardian |

Last Thursday at Thornton Manor, Johnson made a major concession: he agreed there should be no customs border on the island of Ireland. That was the key to triggering the current round of intensified talks in Brussels. But dashing EU hopes, it is clear the UK is not seeking to return to a lightly retouched version of Barnier's original plan, the Northern Ireland-only backstop. Instead, the UK hopes to devise an unprecedented bespoke customs deal for Northern Ireland.

While the British have not disclosed the plan, EU sources have outlined the main details. Northern Ireland would be legally part of the UK customs area, but practically in the EU customs union, following European rules on tariffs and quotas. It would be simultaneously in and out - a model quickly called Schrödinger's customs union, in mock homage to the physicist's theoretical cat that was simultaneously dead and alive.

Brexit talks fail to yield breakthrough with timely deal feared 'impossible'

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Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 02:12:04 PM EST


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Oct 14th, 2019 at 04:35:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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