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UK election thread

by fjallstrom Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:17:09 AM EST

Election day! Vote! GOTV! Make sure votes are counted! All the fun and spectacle of democracy!

Or just comment from afar. That works too.

Frontpaged by Colman from behind the sofa


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I don't have much to say about this election, but I figured I could at least post a thread. Add thoughtful comments and reports from the ground.
by fjallstrom on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:19:47 AM EST
For what it's worth the UK threads on the Something Aweful forums seem to be breaking heavily for Labour activism this cycle. So either terminally online, certainly-not-yet 40 year olds are all in on Labour or it  means nothing.
by generic on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:45:20 AM EST
Yes, I think that the media tend to swan around looking for people to confirm their own prejudices. So you get ton of voxpops from tories and leavers, with a fair sprinkling of Never-Corbyn ex-labour.

But the biggest noise doesn't always reflect a majority.

That has been the major reason why I've tended to pay any attention to the polls which have a bias towards a Tory/leave status quo. With a lowly contracting active electorate, the polls tend to go with what they know, people who've voted regularly before and can be relied upon to do so again. A selection process which entirely misses certain demographics who can be peruaded to vote IF it will make a difference to them.

That's what Labour have done. And the polls can't/won't see it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 01:10:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Related reading ...

Xenophobia, Israel, Alt-right and the Jewish Question

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:10:25 AM EST
Just look at that face, twisted by hate. And the hand imitating grasping fingers.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 01:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn nasty bad man

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 03:03:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm hiding in a fridge. I won't be drawn on whether the lights are on.

Unfortunately there's no oven in which to cook Brexit.

It's DIY time, folks!

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 01:57:14 PM EST
I thought Boris' Brexit deal was "oven ready"?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 05:02:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yesterday the oven ready chicken self-propelled himself into a fridge.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 06:07:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you ain't got a oven, your chicken stays raw.

This is why Johnson's Brexit will be a raw deal.

<back into the depths of the fridge>

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 07:13:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Media making "large turn-out" noises which favors Labour -- or so I am told.

"It's Happening," Declares Jeremy Corbyn as Early UK Election Reports Suggest "Longest Queues Ever"

And the youngs?

"Many of the voters out this morning have said the lines are 'full of young people,'" Metro noted.

They are voting?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 04:10:00 PM EST
seems so. I'm hearing lot of stuff on FB about huge queues for voting (150 yards at one polling station at 7:15 this morning). Queueing isn't normal at UK polling stations as we tend to have quite a few.

But it ain't over till it's over.

I imagine beer will be taken later just to calm my nerves

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 04:47:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Beer news in Colorado Springs

Red Leg Brewing Co. will break ground Friday on a new $8 million brewery, food and event complex near the west end of Garden of the Gods Road in Colorado Springs.

The 14,000-square-foot facility will include a taproom with panoramic rooftop deck, an outdoor food court with eight vendors, and an outdoor community event center that will be the "first of its kind" in the city, according to a statement from brewery founder and president Todd Baldwin.

by asdf on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 05:56:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No silly .... it's British just queuing and reading the morning Metro ...

Most important this decade, how fitting!



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 05:18:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet the decade runs out at the end of 2020, does a major national newspaper in the same group as the always factual Daily Mail not know that?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 06:06:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's keeping the fingers crossed that at minimum BoJo is deprived of a majority. A Labour-led minority government with a promise of a second referendum would be quite the harbinger. We'll see. Not counting any chickens just yet.

"There are no innocents. There are, however, different degrees of responsibility." -- Lisbeth Salander
by Don Durito on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 05:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am curious about the degree to which this will be interpreted as a referendum on Brexit.

If Johnson wins with a small majority, will he feel the need to have a further referendum? Or is his campaign a clear enough signal that supporting him means supporting Brexit? Presumably it will be harder for Remain MPs in the Conservative Party to sustain their argument after the election.

If Corbyn wins, I would assume that a Brexit referendum would be required, due to his fence-sitting...

by asdf on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 05:50:57 PM EST
If Boris wins, he'll steam ahead with the no deal brexit of his billionaire chum's dreams.

Corbyn will probably revert to being a semi detached member of the customss union which will be voted down at the referendum.

Fence sitting is a loaded term. He didn't create this mess, Cameron did. He didn't wreck May's deal in Parliament, the ERG and Boris did that. It would be his job to take a hopelessly divided country and create a resolution that unites us. He cannot do that without the specific consent of the British public; a referendum got us here, it will take one to get us out.

 He sees himself as the refereee here, favouring neither side. So he'll negotiate a deal in good faith and then put it for approval to the UK public. In good faith. I really don't see what's difficult about that position.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 06:03:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The difficulty

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 06:25:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After months of totally ignoring it in the last hours Boris is out campaigning in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.  He must be sweating it.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 08:39:52 PM EST


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 09:01:05 PM EST


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 09:14:12 PM EST
Out of the fridge and back campaigning due to rising uncertainty ...

Leave US with one hour of hope for a surprise! 💫

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 09:18:59 PM EST
Huge Conservative majority ... era of Margaret Thatcher on repeat. 🥵

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:04:19 PM EST
Gives the Tories an 86 seat majority:

Conservatives: 368

Labour: 191

SNP: 55

Liberal Democrats: 13

Plaid Cymru: 3

Greens: 1

Brexit party: 0

Others: 22



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:06:23 PM EST
well, that's totally fucked Christmas

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could be the same issue we see in the US. The metropolitan area are overwehlmingly left, but that still leaves vast swathes of the country where rather more atavistic tendencies predominate.

Anyway, that it for me. I see no point in staying up and watch the Hindenburg burn

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:13:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's basically sentient humans vs animals at this point. Get out if you can.

Although I have to say I find the poll very hard to believe. Even in rural areas there was fierce disgust with this version of the Tories.

But they can't just fix the result to order. Can they?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:26:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Either the electorate of the UK have lost their minds or this exit poll will go down as the biggest polling disaster since Dewey Defeats Truman.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:41:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know. It certainly reminds me of the stories Dolan of Exile and WarNerd fame tells about his youth in Reagan's California. Sure the students and young had all the energy and political commitment, but in the end money and silent resentment won out. Easily.
by generic on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:52:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I remember those days very well.

But now California is a Democratic Party stronghold so things do change.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:57:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are reasons to disbelieve the poll - to disbelieve the result, if it turns out to be similar.

None of the preceding polls were estimating a Tory win of this scale. And those polls were famously under-counting the youth vote.

The youth vote turned out in huge numbers. Turnout in general was much higher than usual - the highest in living memory in many locations - and that traditionally favours Labour.

There was significant and organised anti-Tory tactical voting, with candidates standing down and endorsing the other party in a number of seats. This has never happened before in an election.

A significant proportion of the Tory base is disgusted with Johnson. Some Tory stalwarts were actually encouraging voters to vote for a different party - including Labour in a few cases.

But Johnson - who ran an appallingly inept campaign - somehow managed to turn all of that around and win an extra fifty seats, presumably relying on working class Leave voters.

Even allowing for flagrant BBC and print media bias, that seems unlikely.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree, it's really 'out there.'

We will have to wait for the votes to be counted.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:30:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And by the way, who is counting the votes?
by generic on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:37:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The poll workers and watchers  

It's a fair system.  Paper ballots and there are plenty of people from all the parties to make sure there's no hanky-panky


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually it's pretty easy to game. You get yourself a few hundred spare ballot boxes, stuff them with a heavily slanted selection of the votes you want, and deliver them to the counting centre.

In theory ballots are numbered to guarantee this doesn't happen, but in practice I don't think the numbers are checked unless there's a good reason to check them.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:01:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The brokenness (if you prefer a democracy over a republic) of the American system is the way the senate and electoral college work. That is somewhat different, I think, from the brokenness of the British system.
by asdf on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:42:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks bad. On the positive side, here comes Scottish independence. So UKanians have a lifeboat.
by IdiotSavant on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wait, are you saying that if somebody is born in, say, Birmingham, and has lived there for their entire lives, they could up stakes and move (quickly, now) to Edinburgh and claim to be Scottish? If that is the case, the population of Scotland could boom!
by asdf on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:44:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well yes - that's what being in the same country means. Of course, that might change on independence.

(Other reasons to move early: devolution means Scotland remains social democratic, and doesn't suffer so much from Tory austerity. Of course, the hard-right Tories want to reverse that...)

by IdiotSavant on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:30:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I really doubt this. If anything we're probably getting a Catalonia situation here.
by generic on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:39:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In that the Tories will refuse to let Scotland democraticly determine its future? Probably. And as in Catalonia, that will further increase support for independence.
by IdiotSavant on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 01:25:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In that the Tories will have it blow up if they need a new distraction from all the money they steal/people dying in the streets once people finallyget sick of Brexit.
by generic on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 09:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
tbh,the exit poll is miraculous. For SNP to gain 20 seats in Westminster every constituency but four (4) dumped a Tory and Labour MP.
by Cat on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 01:49:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, they've done it before, and the Scots hate Tories. But I guess we'll find out in a couple of hours.
by IdiotSavant on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 02:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, if this isn't wildly off then I can go back to my initial prediction: The LibDems will give us hard Brexit.
by generic on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 2017 election I could understand ... this blow is severe. The socialists in other European nations had suffered similar blows and find it hard to recover. The era of Corbyn is over.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:28:59 PM EST
Exit polls have generally been fairly accurate, so it looks like Boris is going to get a more than adequate majority tomorrow. That means he will drive his Brexit deal through parliament, the UK will Brexit on Jan31st., and the EU will play hardball on a FTA knowing Boris has self-imposed a Dec. 2020 deadline for getting a deal done.

And the rest of Europe can get on with their lives.

Remarkably the one aspect of the "future relationship" which has already been agreed as part of that Withdrawal Agreement is that there will be no customs border on the Island of Ireland which means the UK will have to administer one in the Irish Sea once the transition period is over - unless the UK does a U-turn and stays within the CUSM either temporarily or permanently. Let us presume Boris and the ERG stick to their guns and rule out this option.

From an Irish perspective this is a least worse option. East West trade between Ireland and the UK will be effected, but not north south within Ireland. Any  "border down the Irish sea" will discredit the DUP when it happens as they will be seen to have brought an unwanted Brexit upon an unwilling people and caused a rift between Britain and N. Ireland to have opened up.

But that is for the next election to clarify. If a solid Boris majority is confirmed and Boris gets his deal through,  N. Ireland Unionists are going to feel betrayed by Boris - and screwed by the DUP - and will feel they have no where to turn. Their initial reaction will probably be to bury their heads in the sand and pretend nothing is happening, but my guess is that future historians will regard Brexit and this election as a watershed and a milestone on the road to a united Ireland in perhaps a decade from now.

But its going to be a difficult road...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:33:12 PM EST
With the SNP projected to take 55 of 59 seats the word "United" in "United Kingdom" has to be questioned.  At the moment Independence Yes/No are split 50/50.  After this I suspect Yes is going to get a huge boost.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 10:46:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you underestimate the perfidiousness of perfidious Albion.

Johnson's UK will be perfectly happy to become an outright enemy of the EU. Expect actual skirmishes over territorial waters and Gibraltar, political name-calling, non-cooperation, and continuous point scoring.

The fact that much of the population will be living in shocking poverty and outright violent oppression will be incidental.

This won't be business as usual. This will be more like Franco's Spain or Hitler's Germany, but without the occasional competence.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:33:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you give the UK way too much power and influence once it's on its lonesome.

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:53:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Big enough and stupid enough to be a fucking nuisance, all the same.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 07:37:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And now we hear

As many as 65 seats are considered "too close to call" by the exit poll


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 12th, 2019 at 11:37:44 PM EST

That is a rodent of unusual size. But let me cconsult my inner Pollyanna ...

Belfast Telly | If true, General Election exit poll disastrous for DUP

Such a comfortable majority would give the party zero influence to stop Boris Johnson's 'Brexit betrayal'. The DUP's only hope of stopping the deal was if it held the balance of power in a hung Parliament. ... It doesn't matter how the DUP fares in Northern Ireland constituencies. Even if it holds onto all its 10 seats and wins North Down, the days of wielding the levers of power at Westminster are over.
So there's that.
by Cat on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:35:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't find the exit poll. I mean I find the blurb about it repeated with the seat projections, but not the results with crosstabs etc. Ipsos hasn't published it and neither has BBC, ITV or Sky, the three organisations that paid for it. And no percentages or estimated number of votes anywhere, just seats. Annoying.

I sure hope the votes are hand counted in public and that the handling of ballots and postal ballots are secure enough to prevent any fraud.

by fjallstrom on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:09:01 AM EST
I briefly looked at the GE2015 results with the UKIP party votes. For Blythe Valley and Workington the Leave vote was a clear threat for the Labour seat. The writings on the "Red" wall, the voters were consistent throughout. Unfortunately with a hard Brexit they will find out what today's Tory vote will bring them ... more suffering. Boris to the rescue ?! 🙏🏼

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 01:54:26 AM EST
I had expected the DUP to win N. Down, where Lady Sylvia Hernon was standing down as an independent Unionist. But instead the Alliance Party has won.  Not a good portent for the DUP...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 02:09:44 AM EST
Here's one for the books:

Sinn Fein's John Finucane beat DUP's Westminster leader Nigel Dodds in North Belfast.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 04:49:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DUP have held Strangford seat but their vote in the two counts completed (in very Unionist areas) is down 15% - almost all of which has gone to the Alliance Party.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 02:20:45 AM EST
Just popping in and looking at the results thus far, before going back to grading. Oh, what a cluster.

"There are no innocents. There are, however, different degrees of responsibility." -- Lisbeth Salander
by Don Durito on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 03:56:28 AM EST
I think it's time to recognize that Pfeffle's campaign was not inept, except in our eyes. It took the British electorate for fools, and it worked.

Buffoonery, lies, shitposting, targeted FB ads, make up a winning formula in a media environment of billionaire newspapers, skewed TV, one-liners on smartphone "news feeds", and permission to lie on social network political ads. The reduction of complexity to bone-headed simplicity is colossal. Corbyn's reasonable explanations are of another age.

Now, next stop Brexit crash-out, and fuck the gammons who voted Tory. They'll still be shouting they were right even as what's left of their country is plundered. In fact, there'll be even more resentment under the surface, easy to exploit in a fascist drift.

US beware: this result is also a victory for Trumpian populism. It may come naturally to Bozza, but his politics is Trump-inspired.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 07:34:20 AM EST
Excellent analysis!

Gone full circle from the Enlightenment ... the Buffoon in the Colonies is now King George, taxes are being scrapped just south of Boston ... and leading an imperium across the globe. Did 1917 ever happen?

Related reading ...

"The Brink": Right-wing plan to ruin the World starting with the EU
Signs of Fascism in a Post-Democratic State

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 08:34:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A tabloid PM speaking their language.

Corbyn was never in with a chance. Too much of the hard wordses and thinky things. Bet he finks he's cleverer than us. Creep.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 11:08:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From a historical-evolutionary perspective, bullshit from leaders is perhaps customarily expected. Those projecting moral leadership are recognized as neither leaders nor saints, probably.
by das monde on Sat Dec 14th, 2019 at 08:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just compare today's map of the Conservative vote with the map of EU Referendum - June 2016

How optimism is confronted by hard reality minutes later ...

Related reading ...

Why Liberal Democrats didn't vote for their own party in GE2015

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 08:52:32 AM EST


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 08:58:20 AM EST
Irish News: Nigel Dodds and Emma Little-Pengelly lose their seats



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 11:11:57 AM EST
I think I can agree with this:
BORIS: Everyone Dies - The Something Awful Forums
1) brexit became a huge deal ("OVEN READY!!!"), causing labour to bleed to three parties: the tories (to an extent, but not that much, there's still enough residual hate for them in the relevant areas to hope for the future), the brexit party (ersatz tories without the baggage) and the liberal democrats (remoaner central). because . johnson actually having a deal he could pass off as his own and meaningfully distinct from may's was a huge boon to him here, so thanks EU for that. you fuckers.
  1. the character assassination of jeremy corbyn was much more advanced at this stage, with the antisemitism stuff being a part of this. continual, universal negative coverage for four years saw his popularity ratings steadily drop, and the constant internal struggles in the party re: brexit position was extremely costly for his image as a stalwart champion of righteous causes
  2. corbyn speaks very well to a relatively small group of voters: people like us, who are politically aware and who have been homeless for decades. apart from that, he's not that effective as a personal campaigner, and once the press and the tories (but i repeat myself) figured out how to put him in positions where he couldn't deploy his strengths (e.g. he actually knows what he's saying and why), his weaknesses (he's not quick on his feet, and he's tied to positions in which he doesn't believe) became apparent.

basically, brexit turned into a culture war thing and a centre/periphery conflict. those always benefit the class with more cohesion, which in britain (and the west in general) is the ruling class

and this from Richard Seymour, from before the election and in an otherwise classical piece of Zwangsoptimismus.

I would guess that the calculation is roughly as follows. The Tory vote, as long as they keep promising to deliver Brexit, is secure. They supporters of Brexit have already shown that they don't mind being lied to, egregiously, because they assume that all politicians are liars anyway. Ironically, the only people who really suffer from Tory lies are Labour. Labour suffers in the direct sense that just enough people might believe the lies if they are smears or scaremongering. And while the Tories actively benefit from the defensive cynicism of some voters, their fear of being let down, Labour needs to cut through that. The more the infosphere is flooded with blatant and egregious misrepresentations, the more on guard some voters will be over anyone making a big political offer. Above all, confusion favours those wielding simple answers. If everyone's lying, if all politicians are untrustworthy, there is nonetheless one thing all voters firmly believe: Johnson is committed to delivering Brexit. That message, amid the swirl of deceits, has been hammered home with robotic insistence. Thus, they teach people to desire one simple thing, one paltry concession to a nebulous popular will.
by generic on Fri Dec 13th, 2019 at 12:25:03 PM EST


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