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Après May

by Frank Schnittger Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 01:00:27 PM EST

The Daily Mail, formerly the chief cheerleader for Brexit and mouthpiece for "ordinary conservatives," and latterly (after a change of editor) chief cheer leader for Theresa May:

Theresa May was humiliated last night after EU leaders took control of Brexit and gave her a fortnight 'flextension' to get MPs to vote for her deal after calling her make-or-break summit display 'evasive' and 'confused'.

Britain will not leave the EU until at least next month after a late-night deal in Brussels where European leaders rejected Mrs May's appeal for an extension until June 30 after her plea for a three-month delay fell flat.

Instead they offered to extend Article 50 until May 22 - only if the Prime Minister gets her deal through Parliament next week.

But they warned her that if the deal was not passed she must make a decision by April 12 - just three weeks' time - amid growing rumours Mrs May could have quit by then.

Today Theresa May texted EU leaders and told them she would miss day two of the Brussels summit to return to London 'to work on getting the withdrawal deal passed'.

But slamming her approach Tory backbencher Michael Fabricant appeared to compared Theresa May to Neville Chamberlain, who signed a disastrous appeasement deal with Hitler, and said: 'At this difficult time we need a Churchill, not a Chamberlain'.

Insiders said EU leaders were visibly bemused during last night's Brexit debate described as '90 minutes of nothing' where Mrs May appeared 'evasive, had no plan and even seemed confused' when asked what she will do if her deal is voted down again.

One prime minister told aides afterwards: 'The only thing that came through with clarity was her lack of a plan' and one EU aide said afterwards: 'She didn't have a plan, so they needed to come up with one for her'.

Mrs May was ejected from the dinner and forced to eat alone as the talks continued to overcome the split and EU leaders then rejected her June 30 extension.

One senior EU official told Politico that after the PM left the room French President Emmanuel Macron said loudly that he believed Mrs May's deal had a 10 per cent chance of getting through the Commons but added: 'After listening to her, I now think five per cent' before Donald Tusk grimaced and chipped in that this 'sounded too optimistic'.

Reportedly Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, (all Tory Backbenchers) has told Theresa May that members think it is time for her to go. She will probably be allowed (Bercow permitting) to have one last chance to get her deal passed by the House of Commons now that it comes complete with rather short deadlines set by the EU Council. Most people still expect it to be defeated by rather a large (if lesser) margin. It will now be, effectively, a vote of confidence in her leadership.

If she doesn't resign after that Jeremy Corbyn will probably table another motion of no-confidence which he could win with some Tory abstentions. Constitutionally, the Tories will then have two weeks to elect a new leader and win a vote of confidence - otherwise a general election will ensue.

The rules of the Conservative Party provide for the Parliamentary party to nominate two members to stand for election by the general party membership. If one of the nominated two withdraws (as Andrea Leadsom did in 2016), the remaining nominee becomes Leader. Otherwise a ballot of members is organised to close "as soon as is practicable" which in 2016 was not deemed to be until September 9th. - over two months after the selection of two candidates by the Parliamentary party.

It is as yet unclear if Graham Brady (charged with organising the Tory leadership election) would deem a closing date prior to May 22nd. to be practicable. So a longer extension of the A. 50 notification period - and participation in the European Parliament elections - would probably be required - ironically to facilitate a Tory leadership contest. The EU Council may not be overly keen to facilitate the election of an even more extreme Tory Brexiteer leader, but would probably feel obliged to allow democracy (albeit in-party democracy) to take its course.

In the meantime the Tories would also have to win a confidence vote in the House of Commons (if they had lost a previous one) with May as temporary leader. Presumably fear of a Corbyn premiership would induce the DUP and Tory rebels to support it.

Over a dozen Tory hopefuls are said to be preparing leadership campaigns, with Jeremy Hunt's said to be the most sophisticated and advanced. Some Tory MP's have said they will resign the party whip if Boris Johnson is elected. His chief problem will be to unite Brexiteer MPs behind him with so many other candidates crowding the Brexiteer field.

It is also unclear who the more establishment and centrist MPs will unite behind. Gove? Fox? Hunt? However it seems likely that no Tory Remainer need apply. Even if they could win one of the two Parliamentary party nominations, the Tory membership is said to be hard Brexiteer, with an average age of 70+, and with a large influx of ex UKIP members moving it steadily to the right.

So it seems certain that the next Tory leader will be a hard "no deal" Brexiteer, even if hard Brexiteers are a minority within the Parliamentary party. If it is Boris Johnson, he may not win election as Prime Minister in the House of Commons if some Remainer Tories carry out their threat to resign the whip. Then we will have a general election fought to obtain a mandate for a "no deal" Brexit.

At least the EU Council will have gotten their wish of "a major constitutional event" to justify a long A.50 extension, but I would not rule out a Boris Johnson win. The vagaries of the UK electoral system mean that even a party with only 35% of the overall vote could win an overall majority if the opposing votes are divided and scattered enough.

Who would do a better job of unifying the vote behind them?: Johnson with the Brexit vote, or Corbyn with the Remain/ambivalent/soft Brexit vote? It seems the Remain vote is inherently more divided. Certainly Johnson would be a lot more effective campaigner than Theresa May ever was, though that wouldn't be hard.

So all in all, there are still far to many variables and imponderables to make a firm prediction, although the odds still seem slightly stacked in favour of a hard no deal Brexit - absent a huge surge in the Remain vote behind Jeremy Corbyn.

Display:
Après May | 109 comments (109 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Après May (none / 1)
How might British citizens alter the composition and obligations of future government of the UK?

## Democracy is not well understood

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 03:10:40 PM EST
through a general election? (none / 0)


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 03:46:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: through a general election? (none / 0)

Yeah!!


o. wait.
How do they get one of those?
See any signs of voters' mobilizing now to empty the parties' deadwood and cut a different HoC in '22?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 06:35:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Suppose May loses and refuses to resign.  What follows, and on what timeline?
by rifek on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 04:55:25 PM EST
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Pretty much the only way she can be forced out is by losing a vote of confidence. Timeline is up to Corbyn, Bercow, and Tory rebels...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 05:24:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 6)
Suppose MV3 happens late next week. Then the two weeks after a vote of no confidence are awfully close to 12 April. It's quite possible that May or ERG ultras will hold on with all tricks so that the UK will crash out. Just as a last fuck you by the now not so unwitting Brexit jihadi in chief

A national emergency - Chris Grey

My sense, especially after her broadcast this week, is that we have a Prime Minister who - more for psychological than political reasons - will do all she can to ensure that if her deal isn't passed there will be a no-deal Brexit, despite having in the past promised the could not happen without explicit parliamentary assent. It is now being reported by reliable sources that she is, indeed, now determined on this course of action (£) in which she will of course be cheered on by the increasingly unhinged Brexit Ultras within and outside her party.

Even if she were to immediately face and lose a no confidence motion she could still, if I understand the Fixed Terms Parliament Act correctly, be Prime Minister for another fortnight, enough to take us over the cliff. She looks like someone who won't go down without bringing the rest of us with her if she possibly can. Indeed it is all too believable that she would regard it as her "sacred duty" (£) to do so.

So the first order of business for parliament -if it has any sense left- is to take control of the timetable on Monday, presto.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 10:05:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Also maybe don't bother with MV3

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 10:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
What rules does the UK have for caretaker governments?

Does parliament have to wait two weeks to appoint one, or can they appoint one on as soon as May is gone? Because if they are going to do anything other than crash out, they need a PM in some form.

by fjallstrom on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 12:04:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
May remains as PM until she loses a second vote of confidence (to be held within 2 weeks) and then she can call a general election - still as PM. AFAIK there is no constitutional concept of "caretaker PM" in the UK. Obviously if she were to resign as Tory Leader she would stay on as PM until a new Tory leader can be elected PM. You can call her a lame duck if you wish, but she is still the PM.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 01:25:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
Resign, May?
She will be last to leave the sinking ship of Torydom, even as the hull cleaves and the Big Gurgle commences,

Rees-Mogg will be become the new Screaming Lord Sutch of Britpol.  
Bojo by then will go full skinhead and opine the same absurdist ballyhoo as ever in a Sarf Lunnen brogue.

Circled by psychiatrists, Teresa will be staunch to the end in a never-before-seen advanced stage of dementia politicalis, shouting 'Brexit meant Brexit' over the howling winds of nationalism and the numb silence of voters surveying the damage, picking flotsam and jetsam  at low tide.

Hunt and Hammond swan-dove off the poop, Corbyn decided that he could never decide about the EU because that's above his pay grade. He just wants to patch up as many voters as he can and being a man of integrity, he cannot bring himself to support anything less than his own full leadership of HMS WTF. Watching the Debordian spectacle of the Tory debâcle is too distractingly stimulating to worry about the EU much.
Barnier sighs, knowing the national nervous breakdown the U-Kay is experiencing could turn all jilly-jally and spread to other countries in his retirement purview.
He grits his choppers and meditates on the May elections.

(No not that May, wally. The month!)

The yoga breathing sessions with Tusk and Jungker will help with dyspepsia.


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 10:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
"(No not that May, wally. The month!)"

Word is the Council wanted to offer a two month extension to end May but ran into the Parliamentary elections deadline...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 01:15:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
to end May

Or till the end of May.
And the beginning of the Mayn't.
Mayday!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 07:57:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
"May" is no more.
"Might" has become "Should've".


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 02:01:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 6)
And whatever solution parliamentarians come up with has to be delivered x days before 12 April to be implemented with the EU. So there is even less time. Next week will probably decide whether there will be no-deal which is quite likely. Some small mistake or fuckup or if May is prepared to go full kamikaze could put things in the bin.

We already saw an inkling last week when the second referendum campaign somehow thought it would be great tactics to tell MPs not to vote for a second referendum amendment!? Because of the march or timing or something?! After whipping against that amendment, Corbyn stood up and declared he supports a second referendum!?

There is quite the chance that the sheeple in parliament will miss the boat because of their complancency and gullibility. No-deal crash by 'accident'. This is not accidental. But according to May, 'the people voted to suffer'.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 01:05:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
Indeed. Preparations in the continent and Ireland must start right away for the eventuality of a no-deal. Customs controls must be set up in the short 3 weeks left before the 12th of April. The two weeks adjournment is a readiness buffer.

I also wont be surprised if a period of grace of a few months is declared for a selection of critical goods.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 09:46:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
Under Henry VIII powers, the Queen sends her to the Tower.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 06:06:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
I might suggest a good deal of company and have the lot perkinwarbecked.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 11:56:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
So what if May goes?  

AFAICT there's no parliamentary majority for the Withdrawal Agreement and still a majority for Brexit.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 05:57:52 PM EST
adding (none / 0)
The political dynamic won't have changed.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 05:58:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Events, dear boy, events... (none / 1)
"Events, dear boy, events..." (Harold MacMillian)

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 06:48:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
There is no majority for any specific form of Brexit...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 06:49:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
Ergo, the default option: no deal.
by Bernard (bernard) on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 07:39:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
'Hope dies last': fatalism among EU leaders as no-deal Brexit looks likely
The EU increasingly believes a no-deal Brexit on 12 April is the most likely outcome, senior EU officials have said, prompting Emmanuel Macron to privately ask the Irish prime minister if his country could cope.

The French president sought assurance from Leo Varadkar in the closing moments of a marathon session of talks on Thursday night, as the leaders looked to settle on mid-April as the new cliff-edge.

"What will happen if there is a no-deal Brexit on 12 April?" Macron asked of the Irish taoiseach. "Would you be fine?"

Varadkar responded: "We can cope".

by Bernard (bernard) on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 09:04:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
I must insist. This headline is as ridiculous as any produced by every masthead over the prior two years -- and it often seems that we've reviewed every one of them here.

London's press corpse expresses gothic drama (Remember to 'de-dramatise'!) far more vividly than anyone commenting on UK gov from the continent. The two reporters must by typing --or dictating to their personal assistants who are typing-- from a fainting couch.

What will become of us! (fanning vapours)

"anything is possible", including a revocation of article 50...
What's that ? (a single tear trickles)
which had gained more than 3m signatures by Friday, Merkel said ...
Pass the salts! (a spasm)
"The road the can has, in perspective, is a very short one."
Fare thee welllll ...

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Mar 22nd, 2019 at 10:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
Thank you Frank for this dispatch. I know these things are not always set in stone for the EU Council, but as I understand it, a second extension to article 50 is not previewed in the treaty. This is now settled, the UK will leave the EU the latest by the 23rd of May - unless it revokes article 50.

I do not expect May to resign out of her own will, but if, as others suggest, she is ousted in a non-confidence vote, I expect the EU Council to simply assume no-deal as certainty. Whatever may come after May can not be better than May.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 09:53:22 AM EST
Re: Après May (none / 1)
" the UK will leave the EU the latest by the 23rd of May - unless it revokes article 50."

Technically it will leave by the 23rd. unless it agrees to hold EP elections, in which case the Council might offer a longer extension provided the UK has a plan of how it wants to use that extra time - e.g. a second referendum or a general election. Revocation can't happen, politically, without one or the other happening first...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 01:22:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 5)

by generic on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 02:03:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
A million people on the Remain march, less than 70 on the Leave march - those pictures more or less sum it up. The  faux populism of the Brexiteers is becoming more and more exposed.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 11:40:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 6)
Not only. FB has been stormed by Leavers all touting the 17 million votes in the referendum as proof that Brexit still has popular support.

Which after today, it doesn't. Not even close. When you get a million people turning up for Option One and twenty or so for Option Two, the idea that Option Two has any popular support is an obvious, glaring, outright, wild lie.

Which is where we came in. It's becoming obvious to progressives that the UK has the thinnest of all possible veneers of democracy. Underneath it is something slightly unusual - a propaganda-led far-right crypto-fascist government, which has specialised in media manipulation instead of the usual outright violent repression and intimidation.

Brexit was supposed to be the next step to a more formal arrangement, but instead it has shown that the UK's politics is a stage set propped up by money - some of it feudal, much of it foreign. With all of the media on-message - even the supposedly progressive Guardian had its pro-Brexit moments - and with FB using targeted ads and paid trolls, voters were supposed to roll over and accept that Brexit was a done deal.

That hasn't happened. Remain is more passionate about Europe than ever. Far from collapsing, pro-Europe sentiment has only grown, while Leave support is collapsing in spite of the industrial propaganda effort supporting it.

The only hold-outs are the corrupt hyper-rich elites, and their political prostitutes in Westminster.

I have no idea what happens next. I suspect this week will finally settle the matter. But it's clear that whatever happens there's been a serious shift in a progressive direction. if Brexit doesn't give it room to prosper, something else will - most likely within the next few years, rather than the next few decades.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 02:01:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 5)
Frankly I don't know. What is generally called "Democracy" is just getting people to make a cross on a piece of paper every few years. I guess you are allowed to send money in between. Marching, striking or getting your head cracked by a police charge counts for nothing. Well no, as Chomsky already noticed 40 or 50 years ago: The "crisis of democracy" was people taking part in democracy.
The polls I've seen haven't shifted much and I wouldn't be suprised if all the 70 year olds would just show up again to put the cross on the piece of paper. Of course, I also wouldn't be surprised if the polls were utter garbage.

But at least this should make it obvious that there was never a prospect of anti-EU riots. Though the Nazis might murder another MP.

Of course this whole Brexit thing is still anti-politics. It reminds me of those utterly banal "more or less state" discussions the most boring OP writer in dying newspapers love to write. After all what is the purpose of leaving the EU? To be a bit more racist? Have they looked at the EU lately? Sovereignty, whatever that is supposed to mean isn't on the menu. No ()Brexit [Juche] on the paper. The last years should have Of course the people pretending to speak for the Remain side are just as riseable.


What are those European values supposed to be? And why is Tony Blair talking about them?
Now, given the utter senselessness of the question at hand, we can't really expect a sensible answer. Corbyn's pretend Brexit might not have been so bad, but is still nonsense. Rerunning the referendum is nearly as nonsensical as running it in the first place. Running a referendum with May's deal on it is nonsense. Or with Corbyn's hypothetical better deal on it. Tearing up all trade arrangements with no plan or vision is nonsense. And just revoking A50 after three years of this....
by generic on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 12:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"anti-politics" (none / 1)
Love it, this charming turn of phrase which so many feel they know so well through their "lived experiences" begging the quesion:

What is politics?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 03:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "anti-politics" (none / 1)
Admittedly it works better in German. The German "Politik" denotes the process of ordering public affairs, not the gaining of governmental power but rather the uses of it.
In that definition Brexit need not apply. After all, both Norway and North Korea are outside the European Union. And the Remain side is now mostly organised around a process argument, the People's Vote, instead of an outcome.
by generic on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 08:39:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Politik (none / 1)
Possession is 9/10 the law, amirite

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 12:47:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Politik (4.00 / 3)
And the last 1/10th is the part that needs to be very precisely written down.
by generic on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 01:31:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here we go again. (none / 0)
"just a question of time... they will have to reveal how democracy means zero to them..."
Tue Nov 29th, 2011 at 11:40:01 AM EST

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 03:38:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit riots (4.00 / 4)

by generic on Wed Mar 27th, 2019 at 08:20:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Brexit riots (none / 0)
well, well, well ... what a small world.

Back to the sewer of anglo-merican oral traditions and propaganda for moi!

archived transportations
demagogue Fr. Coughlin and the mighty ...influential Patrick Cardinal Hayes

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Mar 27th, 2019 at 02:06:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
It's becoming obvious to progressives that the UK has the thinnest of all possible veneers of democracy.

No, it could be thinner; it could be the US.

by rifek on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 02:58:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
Ahem.
by asdf on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 05:43:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
When you get a million people turning up for Option One and twenty or so for Option Two, the idea that Option Two has any popular support is an obvious, glaring, outright, wild lie.

Do reality and truth even matter anymore?  They certainly don't here in the US.

by rifek on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 03:10:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
I think the interpretation of the Council statement is actually that a long extension is actually possible after April 12. That's what is implied by the UK commitment to "indicate a way forward"
In the event that the withdrawal agreement is not approved by the House of Commons by 29 March 2019, the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council.
Tusk also said that the solution adopted leaves all options open.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 02:50:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thinking Outside the Box (none / 1)
LBC caller declared the UK should invade Ireland as solution to Brexit crisis

we've invaded Iraq, we've invaded Afghanistan, why not Ireland?"


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 08:23:24 PM EST
Re: Thinking Outside the Box (4.00 / 3)
But that still wouldn't solve the Gibraltar problem. Has anybody in England proposed a Spanish invasion?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Mar 23rd, 2019 at 08:38:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Thinking Outside the Box (none / 1)
Seems obvious that Gibraltar is about as dead of a dead duck as NI is when it comes to staying within the British Empire.
by asdf on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 01:45:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
I don't see the point in trying to give May the boot. The problem is partly her personality and political strategy, but mostly it's that the whole Brexit concept is nonsensical and internally inconsistent.

In any case, there is no time to do anything. General election? Referendum? Negotiate a new deal? How on Earth would any of these sorts of things happen in the available timeline, let alone the whole series of events that would be needed to actually get to where there is a new plan for the UK and EU parliaments to consider and approve???

The choices are still May's plan, no plan, or no Brexit. With another three weeks of time. And a strong possibility of no third vote on her plan.

by asdf on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 01:44:54 AM EST
Re: Après May (none / 0)
"It's not about the nail."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 03:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
There is a way out of this mess, even, or especially, with a constrained timeline. But it would require a bit of political imagination on May's part. Hence everyone's pessimism.

She has to be able to come to accept that her deal is dead, in this parliament at least, and that it is her responsibility, as PM, to find and chart an alternative route.

This means one of two things:

  1. Accept the default outcome of no deal, which will in all probability mean no future trade deal either, and no certainty that even "WTO rules" will apply. "WTO rules" are an unchallenged Brexiteer shibboleth. In reality, if the EU decides "WTO rules" aren't in its interest, it can tear up the WTO rulebook, as Trump has done, and refuse to agree the UK is a WTO member in good standing, refuse to agree WTO tariffs and quotas with the UK, or even withdraw from the WTO altogether. After all, the vast bulk of EU external trade is governed by bi-lateral trade deals rather than by generic WTO rules.

  2. She can follow the logic of her own position - which is that her deal is in the UK's best interests - and put her deal directly to the British people either by was of a general election or second referendum. This will require at least a couple of months to organise, hence a further A.50 extension, and participation in EP elections. A general election could be called for May 23rd. to coincide with EP elections and reduce the cost and political overhead. Corbyn is sure to agree and provide a parliamentary majority, no matter what the hard core Tory Brexiteers say.

A general election in May will cause huge dilemmas for both parties. The Tories will try to ride two horses at once: May's deal and no deal, in an attempt to head of UKIP, Farage, the BNP and assorted fascists. Labour will also be trying to ride two horses: "A better deal" which Corbyn will claim to be able to negotiate - to general scepticism if not derision -  to be followed by a second referendum giving the people a final choice between Corbyn's deal and Remain.

I really don't understand what peoples problem with a second referendum or general election is. Democracy is a moving feast. People change their minds all the time. Different parties with different policies come to power. It doesn't really matter what people thought they were promised in 2016. The bottom line is that "having cake and eating it" isn't on the menu. It's time to make a more informed choice. But it is all down to May, and she has shown no evidence of imagination or ability so far.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 04:14:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
People don't have a problem with a People's Vote.

Leave HQ very much does, because it knows that a PV will put a stake through the heart of Brexit - and all that money, time, effort, and media noise will have been for nothing.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Mar 24th, 2019 at 11:58:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
Yep, but their latest meme - also propagated by May - is that people are fed up with all the wrangling by politicians (always a good populist line) and just want them to "get on with it" - and by it they mean a no deal Brexit. For some reason they have been able to get even establishment politicians to buy into a "common wisdom" that democracy, political stability and violence is threatened if politicians fail to carry out the expressed will of the people and instead consult them a second time on precisely what form of Brexit they wanted.

All b/s, I know, but a handy way to stampede the Commons into allowing a no deal Brexit to happen for fear of having to face an angry electorate.

Theresa May has just spent most of the week-end consulting with senior Brexiteers on what she should do next - not the mainstream elements in her party, not the Remainers, not other party leaders, and certainly not Jeremy Corbyn. They have her by the short and curlies when her only hope of getting the Commons to agree anything is to reach across the aisle. Even the Lib Dems and SNP could probably provide her with a majority for a referendum without Corbyn's support.

But NOOOOO, it has to be her way or the high way, a Tory Brexit that only Tories and the DUP will support. She still seems to think she can bully people into supporting her deal. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 12:24:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
I think she's actually afraid that, if she pushes anything but Brexit, the Tories will schism, profoundly and permanently, and that is the one black mark against her legacy she is unwilling to accept.
by rifek on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 03:27:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Probably, and yet that will probably be the unintended outcome of everything she is doing to prevent it.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 12:24:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Her career has been a string of unintended outcomes.
by rifek on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 08:28:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 5)
The most puzzling thing about this diary is the repeated suggestion that Corbyn could unite the Remain vote behind him. He's a leaver.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 02:38:30 PM EST
Re: Après May (none / 1)
There is no suggestion his preferred option may not be to leave - under the terms of a Labour negotiated soft Brexit deal involving a close and friction-less relationship with the Customs Union and Single Market.

There is a suggestion he is trying to keep both Leave and Remain supporting potential Labour voters on side by suggesting that:

  1. He is against May's (Tory) deal
  2. He is against a no deal Brexit
  3. He is for a Labour negotiated soft Brexit but may be prepared to put it to the people in a referendum where Remain will also be an option on the ballot paper.

To achieve 3 he has to win a general election and gain power first. Hence the importance of keeping as many Remain and Leave supporting potential Labour voters as possible on side.

Failing that congress has committed him to a second referendum. He has shown that he has the democratic credentials to accept whatever the outcome of that referendum is notwithstanding his personal views.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 04:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
HELEN: "this is why I have never understood all the noise in the media about Corbyn and what he thinks about brexit. His opinions are irrelevant, his desire, for or against a referendum, is irrelevant."
CAT: "The only "option" which Corbyn agita expresses should be, must be, understood as acknowledgment of UK third-country status and negotiating position viz. Lisbon without TEU protection extended 21 months from 29 March 2019 by the Withdrawal Agreement."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 04:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Corbyn has been positioning his candidature for PM post-BREXIT deadline. He evidently expects "no-deal." He evidently has difficulty persuading Labour members (UK, SCOTLAND, IE) to accept his leadership, when the political windfall comes to Tory "opposition" with third-country status to the EU.

UK EXIT is scheduled one way or another absent HoC vote to revoke. Exit is the conclusion to all "options".

Conversely, Corbyn evidently has prepared to re-negotiate the "Political Declaration" trade agenda in the event HoC ratifies the Withdrawal Agreement to appease Tories --BECAUSE exit is scheduled by the WA. (letter) Again, he does not dispute WA trade terms; he plans to conform UK third-country trade position to minimum EU or EEA criteria.

Some precepts in the "Political Declaration" must survive exit in HoC, IF the Uk is to trade with EU.

Feedback in the (crypto-Tory) press exploits Labour party ambivalence about Corbyn's popular support for the party as well as any popular vote that might symbolically undermine Tory dominance of the HoC.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 05:05:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
"He evidently has difficulty persuading Labour members (UK, SCOTLAND, IE) to accept his leadership"
A typo, I presume. Scotland is part of the UK, IE is not. There is an entirely separate Labour party in IE with Brendan Howlin as leader.

The NI Labour party holds zero seats in the assembly (0/90)and on county councils (0/462) and received 0.2% of the vote in 2016 Assembly elections. In the 2016 UK Labour party leadership election 765 Labour party members in Northern Ireland took part in the vote, with a majority voting for Corbyn (Corbyn 541; Smith 224).

It is generally not supported by nationalists as they do not support a UK party organizing in N. Ireland. It's vote might therefore be regarded as the tiny fraction of the unionist community who have a left wing orientation.

I have previously argued that there appears to be little substantive difference between May's deal and Corbyn's preferred deal - except that it is to be negotiated by Labour. However the Labour party also appear to be more open to putting whatever deal they negotiate to a public vote.

A you know all of this is moot unless May loses a vote of confidence/calls a general election and the EU grant a further extension to enable it to take place while the UK is still a member and in a position to (re)negotiate any withdrawal agreement.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 05:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
I guess, some people don't imagine a Labour Party without borders. Some do.

labour.ie
-- Labour Leader to attend PES Congress in Lisbon Dec 2018

The PES Prime Ministers of Spain, Portugal, Malta and Slovakia will be speaking at the Congress while the UK Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn will also attend and speak on the Friday evening.
Brexit: Labour Party Irish Society urges Jeremy Corbyn to back second referendum Jan 2019
British Labour party divided: Jeremy Corbyn accused of failing to tackle anti-semitism in organisation
"Ms Ryan, who has represented Enfield North [UK-NI] since 1997, with a break from 2010-15, and served as a minister in Tony Blair's government, also attacked Mr Corbyn's position on the EU."
Labour voters should also back other `progressive parties' - TD Howlin, Nov 2018
"'If there is a constituency where we cannot have Labour, let us not have more conservatives, nationalists or populists. Let us have other progressives. As many progressive voices as possible in the Dáil and in local councils.' "
scottishlabour.org.uk
-- Scotland's papers: Second wave of Labour MPs set to quit party, Feb 2019
(one reason why WoS deride Labour wasting in Scotland's "devolved" parliament. They're in it to spoil unity as is the custom)
"a concerted attempt to do maximum damage to Mr Corbyn's leadership at a critical time for British politics."
-- Scottish nationalists offer support to Labour to topple UK PM, Dec 2018
"if it lodges a no-confidence motion on British Prime Minister Theresa May's rule"

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 06:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
The UK is NOT a member of the Second International.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Mar 28th, 2019 at 04:44:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Neither was the US.

US-UK do not do international law. 'k?

As we should have learned the governments of these two nations in particular --the "elites" and their constituents-- will do anything to dissemble law, labor, civic culture which dilutes exclusive powers vested in it. The hostility of such governments toward inalienable human labors in all of its forms is legend.

wikiwtf status: Socialist International

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Mar 28th, 2019 at 05:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Another reason Bernie Sanders is useless.
by asdf on Fri Mar 29th, 2019 at 04:06:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
Somewhat ironically he has the mirror-role Teresa May adopted. Putting the public will before his own personal beliefs (if there were another referendum and Remain won), a suboptimal situation from the points of view of authenticity and passion.
Does he have the same lust for leadership she has doggedly evinced?
Just because he is perceived as a Brexiteer, does that mean his negotiating skills for a deal are compromised by that?
How important is Europe to Corbyn? In or out, his job remains (sorry!) pretty much the same. Even he had ten times the following, uniting Remainers and Exiteers under some ideological Old Labour banner would be beyond his powers, especially dodging the daily establishment flak being PM would earn him.
His strong point - aside from the grisly self-destruction of the Tories - is that most of the country didn't even bother to vote the referendum. The obviously weren't bothered much either way, or took it for granted that Remainers would easily outnumber the Farage-loons, a done deal.
Just as the vast majority regard the whole Brexit psychodrama as a bizarre aberration concocted by idiotic politicians with too much free time. They just want the whole nightmare to be over either way so they can get on with their lives without thinking too much about politics.
Those people are his possible voter basin, and it's a huge one. The LibDems have last their cred, there are no young firebrand charismatic leaders on either side to capture the media attention. Voter apathy will still be an issue as many have given up all hope that politics can do anything but screw things up.
He will have to be very strong to guide the country, riven by Brexit, to a better place.
Within, where he is a known quantity and his scepticism would provide a counterpoint to the Macron-isation of Europe.
Without, he will see to it that wealth inequality will be pruned, and that young people attracted to a more idealistic politics can be a huge force for change.

Climate change is much more important for them than L-R politics du jour. I  

 

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 09:02:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
4 days and 14 days of extension left until the Tories start spreading the Dolchstoßlegende Brexit meme.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 06:13:04 PM EST
Re: Après May (none / 0)
the suspense is thrilling

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 06:47:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
But I thought it was Labour that was supposed to be antisemitic...

BTW, is Brexit still on Friday? How does the EU extension change UK law?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 07:19:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
May says 'not sufficient support' for third meaningful vote
"Setting out the choices facing MPs, Mrs May said: 'Unless this House agrees to it, no deal will not happen. 'No Brexit must not happen.'"

non-binding "indicative votes"

Brexit amendments: What are MPs voting on?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 08:40:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
No, Brexit is postponed by agreement with the EU Council and the UK Government has tabled secondary legislation in the HOC to change the date in domestic law.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 08:49:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
I thought the EU stipulated any extension past April 14 required parliament to accept the Withdrawal Agreement.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 01:11:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
s/b April 12th

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 01:17:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
No.

IF (VOTE FOR WA BEFORE END OF THIS WEEK) THEN
  LEAVE MAY 22nd
ELSE
 NEW PLAN (INCLUDING EP VOTE) OR LEAVE BY APRIL 12th
ENDIF

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 10:48:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Will they manage to pass this legislation in 4 days? And aren't there supposed to be lots of laws that reference this?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 02:46:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
No time for a new release, so they will have to patch it. Search replace the relevant date. What could possibly go wrong?

</snark>

Actually, it is a good question. I would guess it depends on both formal requirements and practical considerations. And trying to pass legislation in a hurry also means that opponents can try to stall it. Maybe some actual filibustering may commence?

by fjallstrom on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 07:58:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
viz Boeing 737 Max. But with 66 million passengers.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Mar 27th, 2019 at 10:48:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
The extension is being done under a Statutory Instrument which (as far as I gather) only requires a vote in parliament. By wonderful irony, it doesn't matter if it passes, because EU Law has precedence over UK Law!.

From the Financial Times (may be paywalled?)

"The prime minister on Monday confirmed that MPs would vote on Wednesday to change the exit date from March 29. She noted that if the vote on changing the exit date did not pass, Brexit would still be delayed because of the supremacy of EU law".

by oldremainmer48 on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 05:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
Here is the official story from the Hansard, the recorder of Parliamentary activity.

It does have to be debated and approved (voted on) by both houses - my error.

by oldremainmer48 on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 05:30:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hOLyMArYmuTTRgoTt! (none / 1)
That lot is gonna need an extension for the extension.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 06:48:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
It's ... amusing ... the UK parliament doesn't know it cannot pass binding legislation for the EU.  Given some of the things I've read the UK press doesn't know that either!

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 05:30:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
So what was the point of passing that UK law in the first place?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 05:56:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
TAKING BACK (the appearance of) CONTROL! (4.00 / 3)


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 06:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Ahahaha you are underestimating the creativity of politicians! There are numerous ways that this particular can could be kicked another few feet (weeks) down the road after April 12th.

It comes down to the EU calculating the tradeoff between the cost (to themselves) of a no-deal Brexit, and the cost of a another few weeks of uncertainty that might lead to a deal of some sort.

The UK seems to be successfully carving out a new "neither in nor out" relationship with the EU. Maybe the model should be the "Through the Looking Glass."

by asdf on Fri Mar 29th, 2019 at 04:21:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
DUP just told May they couldn't support her Brexit deal so she had to cancel a scheduled (?) third vote.  Dumbass has managed to put a bunch of NI ignorant, bigoted, whack jobs in control of accepting/rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement.

Good going Dumbass.

Meanwhile ....

Brexit: PM says NI unable to prepare for no-deal

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) deputy leader Nigel Dodds accused Mrs May of a "fundamental lack of preparation" and said "the government is entirely responsible for that".

By this we know the ignorant, bigoted, whack jobs lack the brains to know they are "the government."

Other interesting stuff in the link, including the EU expectation of a No Deal Exit*.

* get your political news 2 years early at ET

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 06:43:55 PM EST
Re: Après May (none / 1)
misogyny!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 06:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Maybe the DUP is a Manchurian Candidate setup. Because everything they do points to a no-deal Brexit, which is the most guaranteed method of getting a unification vote.
by asdf on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 03:22:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
Letwin amendment -taking control of the timetable- passes 329 to 302.

My stomach feels wondrously lighter.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 10:28:31 PM EST
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
Now all that is needed is ranked voting, to choose the least-worst option. I.e., May's deal.
by asdf on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 03:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Where's the bill that binds HoC to public vote outcome?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 03:51:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
THE TORIES ARE REVOLTING!!!! (4.00 / 2)
(but not in the usual sense....)

UK lawmakers seize control of Brexit process from Theresa May's government

Thirty Conservative lawmakers defied the government whip to vote in favor of the amendment, which was proposed by Conservative remainer Oliver Letwin, a fact that will be hard for Theresa May to ignore.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 01:16:48 AM EST
Re: Après May (4.00 / 3)
What about the Irish border in case of no deal?

by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Mar 26th, 2019 at 09:21:22 PM EST
Rafael Behr again (4.00 / 2)
(Guardian)There is evidence that remain and leave are now more compelling drivers of political identity than party allegiance. (...)

The qualities of being a leaver or a remainer are unmoored from the mostly dull questions of EU institutional relations. They serve instead as code for positions in a culture war, conveying rival value judgments about the kind of country Britain once was, is now and should be. It is a faultline that cuts through the middle of parties. (...)

The immediate problem for Labour and the Conservatives is that Brexit has changed the political map, exposing divisions in the country that won't align with old party templates.

May and Corbyn naturally try to manage the situation through the party structures they can just about control, but the crisis won't be contained in those vessels. It keeps spilling out from the sides. It is washing away the rules.



I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Mar 27th, 2019 at 09:27:54 AM EST
Rabid (4.00 / 2)
An excellent writer, but his problem is that the Guardian's popular reach is only 5% of the electorate, and the already converted part of the electorate, at that. Hence my long quote from the Mail. It has been on a journey from rabid pro-Brexit, to rabid pro-May, to rabid anti-May. Well rabid anti-anything really...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Mar 27th, 2019 at 12:47:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
House of Commons rejects all 8 alternative futures put to an indicative vote:

It doesn't look like the House of Commons taking control of the process brings us much closer to a resolution of the impasse...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Mar 27th, 2019 at 10:45:35 PM EST
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
It was a two stage process to rank choices. Further work  - including a preference vote, I think - on Monday.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 28th, 2019 at 06:59:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
I think, though, that a ranked voting system involves asking each voter to rank the options. Asking them which ones they like or don't like is not the same as ranking.
by asdf on Fri Mar 29th, 2019 at 04:25:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 5)
(Daily Mash) TV show Blue Peter has asked children to make a basic Brexit plan and send them in, with the best ones going to Parliament to be voted on.

Presenter Lindsey Russell demonstrated how to draw a Brexit deal with felt tips, or make one from washing-up liquid bottles, kitchen foil and double-sided sticky tape.



I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Mar 28th, 2019 at 02:23:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
Stuff like this is very useful if you do it before you negotiate. (You can do it behind closed doors, if you don't want the opposing party to know the results.)

Had they held this vote two years ago, it would have been clear that since there was no majority for any particular Brexit, and absolutely none without cross-party support, leaving an article 50 notification was foolish. Instead they could have had talks to figure out what Brexit - if any - could get support in parliament.

by fjallstrom on Thu Mar 28th, 2019 at 04:32:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 4)
One of the things I took from Bob Altemeyer's The Authoritarians is Conservative's inability to construct a proper Theory of Mind:

Theory of mind is the ability to attribute mental states--beliefs, intents, desires, emotions, knowledge, etc.--to oneself, and to others, and to understand that others have beliefs, desires, intentions, and perspectives that are different from one's own.

The practical result is their "negotiating" (sic) tactic is to present a list of demands and and browbeat the other side until it agrees.  Which simply won't work if the other side is the more powerful.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Mar 28th, 2019 at 04:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Party of NO (4.00 / 5)
It still looks like UK Conservatives haven't worked out that the DUP desn't do compromise. Rees-Mogg and half the ERG now have egg on their faces for saying they would support May's plan if the DUP supports it or abstains. They will look very silly now if they vote against it because the DUP isn't supporting it. It's a bit like Theresa May agreeing a document with the EU without checking that her Attorney General was on board. Could they not have checked with the DUP first before making their position public? Do these guys have a clue about some of the basic rules of politics?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Mar 27th, 2019 at 10:51:38 PM EST
Re: Après May (4.00 / 6)


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Mar 27th, 2019 at 11:44:30 PM EST
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Where is the set of people who believe in unicorns on your diagram?
by asdf on Fri Mar 29th, 2019 at 04:26:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
A unicorn is herein defined by those who believe in yet to be invented "smart" technological solutions...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 29th, 2019 at 05:19:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
May's promise to resign, if only the House will agree to vote her Brexit "legacy", seems to have Fallen rather flat.

She should try reformulating it as a threat. Vote my Brexit legacy, or you're stuck with me for another three years.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Mar 28th, 2019 at 05:53:06 PM EST
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Someone quipped: Theresa May felled on her sword - and missed.
by Bernard (bernard) on Fri Mar 29th, 2019 at 07:17:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah... (none / 0)
She was pushed... but nobody told the DUP they weren't supposed to provide her with a safety net...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 29th, 2019 at 12:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 0)
Tory MPs warn Theresa May not to hold snap election
With frustrations growing on all sides at the continuing deadlock, it emerged that 170 Tory MPs had written to the prime minister demanding a swift departure - with or without a deal.
The letter was said to have been signed by 10 members of the cabinet -- including foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt and home secretary Sajid Javid -- and 20 other ministers.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 31st, 2019 at 10:04:22 AM EST
Re: Après May (4.00 / 2)
The warnings came as MPs prepared to take control again of the Commons timetable with a second series of "indicative" votes starting on Monday in attempt to find a alternative plan which can command a majority in the House.

So they start forging a political consensus as the basis of negotiation after they were supposed to leave.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Mar 31st, 2019 at 05:39:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
No need for negotiations, the EU27 will simply be falling over each other to give them whatever they want when they finally decide they want it...

Unicorns aren't confined to the Brexiteer side...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 31st, 2019 at 07:45:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Après May (none / 1)
Or force the bloody Frogs to accept terms by a whiff of gunpowder and the taste of cold steel?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Mar 31st, 2019 at 08:16:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Amid All the Hoopla (4.00 / 2)
Reality being discovered?

However many Brexit options are voted on today in the House of Commons, EU law stipulates that there are only three on the table: no deal, no Brexit, or Theresa May's negotiated deal.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Apr 1st, 2019 at 03:02:24 PM EST
Re: Amid All the Hoopla (none / 0)
IDK. Rhetoric here suggests replacing the WA with the winning "indicative vote". Somebody still believes, UK can extort a legally binding trade agreement from the EU.

Notice contingent relation of HoC emended "Political Declaration" to the WA;

The desire to negotiate an ambitious customs deal could be swiftly written into the political declaration and formally signed off at the EU leaders' summit on 10 April.
"backstop" in either text is not addressed in this promotional piece; and this bespoke "customs union," submitted by HoC to EU, obviates bi-lateral review and approval of its terms in UK writ yet to be drafted --between now and 22 May.
Brussels would probably seek to avoid a row on this issue ahead of the withdrawal agreement and political declaration finally being ratified by the Commons.
Correctly translating "senior EU sources" to MPs special needs is untenable. 49 days.
"That new political statement can then be approved at a European summit on 10 April and then we will give the British the opportunity to formalise it in English legislation by 22 May."

Britain 'could leave [?!] EU by 22 May if MPs vote for customs union'

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Apr 1st, 2019 at 09:45:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Après May | 109 comments (109 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)


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