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Europe Elects - Results

by Oui Thu May 23rd, 2019 at 07:51:17 PM EST

Complete surprise result in Dutch exit poll - LABOUR WINS - PvdA

>> See Update Dutch results below in posted comment. <<

The loss of three seats for PVV - Geert Wilders - go to new rightwing party Forum for Democracy - Thierry Baudet.

The last poll was completely off target – here.

More below the fold …

Frontpaged - Frank Schnittger


EU elections live updates: Polls close in the Netherlands

Polls have closed in the Netherlands, while in the UK votes can be cast until 10 pm local time (11 pm CEST).

Tories and Labour set for EU elections disaster as Brexit Party and Lib Dems top poll

The Conservatives and Labour will finish behind the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats at the EU elections, according to an opinion poll carried out hours before voting began.

Ipsos MORI has predicted that Nigel Farage’s new outfit will storm ahead to pick up 35% of the vote today, while Vince Cable's pro-Remain party will take 20%.

Labour is to finish third on 15%, while the Tories languish in fifth, a point behind the Greens, on just 9%.

The study, carried out for the Evening Standard between 20-22 May, found that more than half (54%) of Conservative voters from the 2017 general election plan to ditch them for the Brexit Party.

[Update-1]

Of course illustrated with a Dutch windmill, wooden shoes and Hans Brinker to illuminate the American folks. Are the Dutch part of Germany was the question I heard quite often in the States …

Strong showing for pro-EU parties in Dutch EU vote | AP |

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Pro-European Dutch parties were predicted Thursday to win most of the country’s seats in the European Parliament, with right-wing populist opponents of the European Union managing to take only four of the nation’s 26 seats.

In a surprise forecast, the Dutch Labor Party of European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans became the country’s biggest party in the 751-seat European Parliament, according to an Ipsos exit poll.

What an unbelievable exit poll!” Labor leader Lodewijk Asscher told a gathering of cheering party faithful.

The poll was published by Dutch national broadcaster NOS after polling stations closed Thursday evening in Netherlands. Earlier in the day, Dutch and British voters kicked off the first of four days of voting for the European Parliament in all of the EU’s 28 nations.

Official results will only be announced after the last polling station in the EU closes late Sunday.

The Dutch Labor party was forecast to win five seats, while the pro-European center right VVD of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte gained one seat to win a total of four seats.

“There is a clear majority of people in the Netherlands, if you count them altogether, who want the European Union to continue playing a role in tackling problems that need to be solved,” Timmermans told NOS, speaking from Spain.

Timmermans is a broadly respected former Dutch foreign minister who is trying to become the next president of the European Commission.

[…]

Wilders vowed to keep fighting the populist cause even after his party’s projected big defeat.

“We had hoped for more seats,” Wilders said in a statement. “But with one seat in the European Parliament we will, together with our European friends, fight even harder against the EU monster, Islam and mass-migration.”

In upset, Dutch Labour party trumps populists in European vote | Reuters |

Archive: Key words Terror and Islamophobia

[Update-2]

Percentage wise Dutch Labour party a solid winner with 5 seats out of 26.

Timmermans’ Labor wins Dutch EU election: Exit poll | Politici EU |

The Dutch Labor Party of Frans Timmermans, the center-left candidate for European Commission president, is the unexpected winner of the European Parliament election in the Netherlands, according to an exit poll.

The party won five out of 26 seats with more than 18 percent of the vote, doubling its result compared to the last European election in 2014.

That means that the Dutch social democrats will be a larger force on EU level than Prime Minister Mark Rutte's liberal party, which came second on 14 percent, and Thierry Baudet's upstart Euroskeptic Forum for Democracy (FvD), which came fourth on 11 percent.

Ahead of the election, the Social Democrats had been projected to come third with three seats, with Rutte's and Baudet's parties expected to win five seats each.

[…]

Rutte congratulated Timmermans' party. "The Labor Party has delivered an unbelievably good performance tonight," he said.

Of his own party's result, he said the VVD has made "considerable progress." He added: "It's a fine result, but of course one would have preferred to be the biggest party."

[..]

According to the exit poll, turnout was up: some 41.2 percent of eligible voters in the Netherlands cast a ballot, compared to 37.3 percent in 2014.

Recently opportunist PM Mark Rutte flirting with rightwing populist rhetoric …

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte says more EU is not the answer

So Mark … will you need to adjust your rhetoric once again. :)

END OF UPDATES

Display:
Meanwhile, in the UK, the BBC barely mentions the EP elections are taking place and there doesn't appear to be any exit poll. The focus is on Theresa May's expected resignation or setting out a timetable for her departure and the thousands of EU citizens disenfranchised by "administrative errors".

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 23rd, 2019 at 11:15:52 PM EST
Not anymore ... thanking May and Tories political chaos of past two years!

The Dutch answered that question with 14% as a good idea and a resounding 64% against. Brussels off life support as far as the Dutch are concerned.

Earlier polls on Nexit:

Dutch withdrawal from the European Union

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 01:47:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Meanwhile, in the UK, the BBC barely mentions the EP elections are taking place and there doesn't appear to be any exit poll.

On the other hand, I was surprised to see an exit poll, here, from The Netherlands when only their own polling stations closed, as I knew there could/would be no exit poll or other analysis in the UK until Sunday evening.

As the Guardian Reports

BBC guidelines state: "While the polls are open throughout Europe, it is a criminal offence to broadcast anything about the way in which people have voted in that election or to forecast the election result, which includes how a particular party or candidate may have fared, based on how people have voted."

Concerned broadcasters are wondering how to comply with this rule, with the potential result that politicians who take to the airwaves on Friday, Saturday or Sunday could be asked to avoid mentioning formal predictions or polling about the Conservative party's expected drubbing - or the Brexit party's anticipated success - in the elections.

The "PM" programme (BBC R4, 5pm, Thursday) had an interview with the BBC compliance officer

In an anomaly that probably predates the Web, print media are not so restricted.

by oldremainmer48 on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 07:48:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a political group #GeenStijl who have tabulated the votes since election night bij calling the local precincts for the results. Poll guru Maurice de Hond has partnered with this group.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 08:58:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Survation published a poll which shows Farage breaking 30%, Labour next closely followed by the Tories - both doing better than expected - LibDems in fourth place, and the rest, including Greens, in single digits.

It's not an ideal result, but it could be worse.

And it's reassuringly debatable how it would translate to GE seats, which would very possibly split the Tory/TBP vote allowing everyone else to do better than expected.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 12:32:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Polls and major news outlets ahead of the May 23rd elections ...

One day ago ...

With far-right topping Dutch polls, EU elections could see Eurosceptics take the lead | PRI |

Five days ago ...

Dutch lead populist charge in EU elections | France24 |

... and today who is Geert Wilders hanging on to one seat in EU Parliament?

This week's European Parliament elections will test the strength of far-right populism | Vox |

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 01:57:46 AM EST

"Enough leaning forward for Brussels and Islam! Holland ours again? Close borders? Go Vote and make your choice for PVV."

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 02:21:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't that Dijsselbloem's outfit? Is that shameless grifter still around?
by generic on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 06:51:02 AM EST
Dijsselbloem is not around in politics today.

Dijsselbloem: Varoufakis was 'catastrophic' for Greece | Ekathimerini |

Wageningen alumnus Dijsselbloem appointed chair of WUR Supervisory Board

Apparently Jeroen has chosen a sabbatical ... out of the limelight. Although he is a member of WEF Europe Policy Group.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 07:48:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, let's see :

  • ENF -3, ECR +3 : Net (slight) positive, fewer fascists, more hard-right authoritarians
  • EPP no change, could be worse
  • ALDE -1, good ("leftish" D66 ? Ha)
  • G/EFA +1, good
  • S&D +2, no comment
  • GUE/NGL -2... requires development

My understanding is that both the Left parties are "anti-EU". Sadly, we didn't manage to register a list in the Netherlands; in my dreams we would have swiped those two seats from PvdA.

Makes me, on balance, a little bit more optimistic for Sunday in France.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 09:24:17 AM EST
Ah OK, the SP are anti-EU, I don't know about the animists (PvdD). My point stands.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 09:30:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Britain's embattled leader Theresa May resigns ["]premiership["] amid Brexit deadlock
and EP elections, yo

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 09:31:25 AM EST
Have you already voted? We're not voting until Sunday...
by fjallstrom on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 12:41:05 PM EST
DW is funded in whole or in part by Germany government.

EU citizens in UK denied vote in European elections
"Britons in the EU's 27 other countries also experienced irregularities, including postal votes "gone missing."

archived ahem
a pillar box emblazoned with the royal cypher
4. Nse Ufot must be new here.
Stamps

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri May 24th, 2019 at 09:22:38 PM EST
2014 - 42.6 %
2019 - 51.0 %

Excellent showing by voters - higher than in last twenty years.

EU elections turnout rises as political landscape fragments | The Guardian |

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Sun May 26th, 2019 at 08:14:52 PM EST
practice, practice, practice

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun May 26th, 2019 at 09:17:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two million Social Democrats in Germany decided not to cast a vote this election!

The PVV of Geert Wilders lost all 4 seats in EU election ... will get one seat by departure of the UK. Legacy of Brexit 🤨

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Sun May 26th, 2019 at 09:50:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DW is funded in whole or in part by Germany government.
EU election: Surge for Greens and euroskeptics, losses for centrist bloc
19:01 Poland's ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party was ahead with 42% of the vote, according to exit polls conducted by Ipsos. The opposition European Coalition - a pro-Europe group comprising the Civic Platform formerly led by European Council President Donald Tusk - scored second with 39.1%.
Close enough! considering how late in the game "pro-Europe" group got started.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun May 26th, 2019 at 10:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here are the results of the Swedish jury, I mean vote:
Soc-dems 5
Epp 5-6 (two parties)
Ecr 3
Alde 2-3 (two parties)
Greens 2-3
Left 1-2
For a total of 20 seats (21 if Brexit happens).

Vote counting is still going on, and the final count is done on Wednesday. The Liberal party is at 4,1 and may fall below 4,0 and if so lose their seat, and bring Alde down to two. The other uncertainties is who picks up the final two seats.

by fjallstrom on Sun May 26th, 2019 at 10:03:04 PM EST
The European pirate parties are looking at its best EP election. If I understand the respective Wikipedia pages, the German Pirates holds their one seat and will be joined by three Czech Pirates.
by fjallstrom on Sun May 26th, 2019 at 11:03:12 PM EST
Meanwhile, both Spain has another headache from the Catalans: both Carles Puigedemont (former president in exile) and Oriol Junqueras (imprisoned ERC leader) have been elected. No doubt the Spanish establishment will try and stop them from taking their seats, but doing so puts Catalan independence on the European stage again.
by IdiotSavant on Sun May 26th, 2019 at 11:16:26 PM EST
In another example of "democracy with Spanish characteristics", Catalan MEPs Carles Puigdemont and Toni Comín were denied entry to the European Parliament for MEP induction. Supposedly, this was because Spain had not yet provided a list of elected MEPs - but strangely, those from non-Catalan parties were admitted.

https:/www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-carles-puigdemont-denied-access-to-european-parliament

by IdiotSavant on Thu May 30th, 2019 at 10:17:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
WoS predicts, 27 May post, illustrated

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 03:17:01 AM EST
Yle is funded in whole or in part by Finaland government
Greens SURGE in Finland's EU Parliament election, Centre Party spurned (table)
"The Greens are now among the big parties," party chair Pekka Haavisto said as he reacted to the results. [2 MEP seats]

archived April GE
I'd say the actual shift in these elections was clear turn to left ...
SDP takes top spot, populists rally, heavy losses for PM's Centre in Finnish election

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 03:25:07 AM EST
spin ahead of final results
Populist rise, but real battle in new EU assembly is EPP vs `progressives'
he Eurosceptics and far-right populists also improved, but fell short of reaching one-third of all MEPs as they wished, despite the victory of Marine Le Pen in France and Matteo Salvini in Italy.
[...]
The EPP Spitzenkandidat, Bavarian Manfred Weber, was quick to stake his claim on the top prize. "If we are the strongest group, then every citizen will say that the strongest group will have the right to make the...president of the Commission," he said in Berlin on Sunday night.
Farage tops poll and Remain parties SURGE as EU polls spell out UK's divide

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 06:01:53 AM EST
Labour party was the largest across 10 of the 12 provinces. Geert Wilders gone in EP, Animal Rights Party (PvdD) and the Elderly (50+) each got a single seat. The votes for Wilders most likely went over to the new party of Thierry Baudet (FvD), nice to see the Animal Rights are more valued than the bs uttered by Wilders. Pffft. Waited many years for such a moment. ;)



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:08:06 AM EST


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:25:04 AM EST
Macron's Renaissance to reveal allies in Strasbourg | EuroActiv - May 10, 2019 |

In addition to parties that are ALDE's natural allies, Renaissance is discussing other formations, including with Italy's Democratic Party, which could also join the group.

Hence, Stanislas Guerini, LREM's executive officer, will be organising a public meeting with Nicola Zingaretti, leader of Italy's Democratic Party, in Turin, Italy, on 12 May.

Compared to the original ambition to bring together all Macronists, this list is relatively modest. One also notes the absence of key countries, such as Germany and Poland.

A Greens/Socialist/Centrist coalition in sight

The new group in the European Parliament may drop the term "liberal" according to Guy Verhofstadt underlined in an interview with Le Figaro. It should rename itself "Renaissance" according to French sources, but the new name will be for the new group to decide. The Parliament's newcomers also hope to rally socialists, greens and the centrist faction of the European People's Party (EPP), Europe's biggest political family which appears to be increasingly leaning to the right.

A LREM official added after this article was published that "the change of name and the coalition talks are not on the agenda before the 26th of may. The priority is the construction of the group".

They want to gather support for the common project proposed in Macron's open letter to Europe from March.

French Macronists eye coup-like raid on Europe's liberals | EuroActiv - April 4, 2019 |

French far-right shows renewed strength in blow for Macron | France24 |

Marine Le Pen's NR won 23.3% of the vote, Macron's centrist La République en Marche (the Republic on the Move) came in second place with 22.1%, and there was a surprise surge for the Green Party, Europe Écologie Les Verts, who scored 13.1%.

The centre-right Les Républicains won 8.4% -- their worst ever showing in an election -- and the French Socialists languished in fifth place at 6.6 %.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:42:45 AM EST
Oui: The centre-right Les Républicains...

Can we please stop repeating that bullshit?
(just like the one about Macron's En Marche being "Centre-Left". Sheesh...)

LR, UMP before that, has always been conservative EPP right wing. After Chirac, under Sarkozy, it lurched to the right, a move even more pronounced after the 2007 elections, when "moderates" elements like Le Maire, Philippe or Darmanin joined the Macron cabinet and new boss Wauquiez decided to compete on the hard right anti-immigrant rhetoric with Le Pen. Went swimmingly.

by Bernard on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 06:24:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Though it's often really only a few people who do boring reactionaries rebranding for them:
Opinion | Meet the Renegades of the Intellectual Dark Web - The New York Times
By Bari Weiss

I forgot who inflicted the term "altt-right" on us?

by generic on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 08:00:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IIRC, alt-right started during the Bush years as an umbrella term for the US groups on the right that were not neoconservative. Including, but not limited to the neo-nazis. During Obama, the need for a anti-neoconservative group on the right disappeared and the various groups abandoned the alt-right camp. Except the neo-nazis who found a re-branding useful, as many react negatively to nazis. In combination, ironic nazism develops on 4chan). With Trump elected Spencer takes a victory lap and claims a victory for the alt-right.

So it is probably Spencer you are looking for. And gullible (or evil) journalists who can't or won't see that the proper name isn't alt-right, it's neo-nazism.

by fjallstrom on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 08:50:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I certainly don't remember the term from the Bush years. I'm not really looking for Spencer, but I remember there was a comparable friendly portrait of him in one of those supposedly high quality publications.
by generic on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 09:06:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could it be Washington Post in November 2016 - https:/www.washingtonpost.com/local/lets-party-like-its-1933-inside-the-disturbing-alt-right-world- of-richard-spencer/2016/11/22/cf81dc74-aff7-11e6-840f-e3ebab6bcdd3_story.html - they certainly use it as a descriptor, while just months earlier Mother Jones needed to explain the term - https:www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/stephen-bannon-donald-trump-alt-right-breitbart-news
by fjallstrom on Tue May 28th, 2019 at 10:59:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You should be careful with casting the net for enemies of the people so widely ;-]

by das monde on Tue Jun 4th, 2019 at 06:15:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My intention was to explain the switch in alliance in the European Parliament to illustrate the seats lost and seats gained.

All the bullshit in my post are quotes from linked news articles. I do appreciate you clarity on terminology.

However the Dutch party Democrats 66 of Sophie In 't Veld is liberal centrist left - relatively speaking- . It must be clear ALL political parties have moved to the right in compliance with the rhetoric of populist parties.

In Europe, nationalism rising | The Harvard Gazette - Feb. 2017 |

A new salience

Although the words populism and ethno-nationalism are often used interchangeably, they actually are distinctly different.

"Populism is a way of making political claims that oppose ostensibly `corrupt elites' with `the virtuous people,'" said Bart Bonikowski, a Harvard associate professor of sociology who studies populist and nationalist movements.

The left often labels big business and banking executives as elites, while the right typically targets the state itself and those who keep it running, like civil servants, bureaucrats, and elected officials, along with academics and other intellectuals, "whereas ethno-nationalism is ... a definition of the nation that excludes various ethnic, religious, and racial out-groups," he said.

Because populism is less an ideology than a form of political discourse, it is often attached to a variety of political ideologies, including nationalism.

"It's basically a strategy for mobilizing political support for whatever politicians' objectives might be," said Bonikowski. "It so happens that in Europe and the United States and elsewhere ... populism attached to ethno-nationalism has gained traction. But that doesn't mean the two things are the same or that they only occur with one another."



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 08:04:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More coming up. With Israel getting close to the possibility of a new election, we'll get to hear lots of how Blue-White (no, not the Bayernpartei) is the "centrre-left".
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue May 28th, 2019 at 12:04:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Lithuania: Banker Gitanas Nauseda wins presidential race
Gitanas Nauseda, Lithuania's former central banker, won the presidential election on Sunday after opponent Ingrida Simonyte conceded.

A center-right pro-EU political novice, Nauseda spent his career in commercial banking, most recently as an advisor to the head of Sweden's SEB Bank, which is also Lithuania's biggest bank.

The final margin is large: 65.86% vs 32.86%. The conservative former finance minister Šimonytė hardly got more votes than in the first round.

As for the EP election, the conservatives were first with 18.6% and 3 seats. The 11 Lithuanian seats were won by 7 parties.

by das monde on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 09:05:47 AM EST

The Brexiteers won't Remain long in the EP ... this year the UK seats will be redistributed along these lines:

European Election Stats - EP2019

[Select top pie and bottom pie according to your wishes]

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue May 28th, 2019 at 07:08:05 AM EST
Notice who is grouped together in bottom right.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue May 28th, 2019 at 07:14:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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